Well a quiet start to the week. I was right to dodge the McCain horse for this post as he faded again quite badly. I wont be backing him until he shows some more, albeit he ran well for a long way.
Wreningham 16/1 1 point win
Loyal, albeit relatively new readers given blog isn’t that old, will know that I wont shirk putting up a horse at a big price. (Oscar Time 33/1 🙂 right, will stop looking back now!)As with any horse at this end of the market there are always a few question marks but in general I think he has a realistic chance and is over priced.
His run last time was his first in 668 days. Safe to say he needed it but he led for a few furlongs and ran ok. The first danger, built into the price, is that he could ‘bounce’ but he has had enough days of the track and will hopefully be ok. He is a prominent racer drawn in 10 and there should be no excuses. He could even lead on his side of the track and will hopefully stay there. He is below his last winning handicap mark and has the services of Luke Morris – a jockey booking that catches the eye. And most importantly, other than the pace angle, is that he is 2 from 5 over course and distance and placed in a further 2. So a win and place strike rate of 4 from 5 over course and distance isn’t bad and makes the 16/1 look appetizing. Some of you may prefer to back him EW but I thought i would go down in a blaze of glory.
So all in all, a lot in his favour. Now of course he could have regressed to a point where he can no longer win but you would like to think connections have stuck with him for a reason. All in all he should be up there from the off and give us a good run for our money.
Well being a class 6 race there are obviously many horses in here who are unreliable and do not win very often. Firstly I think the favourite is worth taking on. Pearl Noir is a low drawn front runner who should be up there. However he is 0/6 over course and distance and the jockey is only 2/34 at the course. He is also above his highest winning mark but is only 4. He could win but is worth taking on given he needs to prove a liking for a ‘fast’ 5f on this course.
Mebo is only 1/16, Your Gifted is 1/5 at the course but his trainer is 0/39, Indicator is unexposed but the drop in trip poses a question, Master of Disguise has never won a handicap on the AW from 16 tries, Walta has yet to show anything of note, Fathom Five is only 1/22 on AW and has not won over 5f from 10 runs, Under Approval is unexposed but has left the O’Meara yard which is never a good sign and is running after more than 100 days of track, Value Mentor is unexposed but has left Tim Easterby and is unproven on the track, College Doll generall likes conditions but has yet to win or place in a field with more than 12 runners and maybe gets intimidated, also only 2/19 on AW but is 1/3 at Southwell. And Lazy Sioux is untried on the track.
That just leaves Danzoe who is second fav and has a decent chance in my opinion. She has a solid profile. My one concern is that she does tend to come from the back and I dont see a pace burn up. If the horses in front do come back it wont be because they have gone too quickly, more likely they will just not have been good enough on the day. I think the few front runners in the race could stay there.
There are also many trainers who have a less than 10% win strike rate at the course from a decent numbers of qualifiers including L Williamson, Herrington, Baugh, Harris (6/150), Tutty (2/34) Dunnet, Dixon, and Guest. In fact having now written that I should have just listed those trainers with a 10% or higher SR! – Pat Eddery, Bowring, Jenkings.
Pearl Noir should lead the low numbers and our selection should lead the high numbers, or be on the speed in any case. All in all I have seen worse 16/1 shots and fingers crossed for a decent run.
12.50 – Grand Vision will win this – a rather bold statement- if staying in his feet. He should lead but did fall last time. This being a novice chase, along with his price of 6/4, meant he was not a selection but given there are a number of doubts over the others, if he jumps and handles the track (two big ifs for the price maybe) then he should win.
Running Total: 4/17 + 14 points