Well Sir Mangan was disappointing and was unable to get the easy lead i thought he would. The Nicholls horse ran ok and the winner was one I didnt give much of a chance too. There is a reason that I dont bet in those races as part of my day to day betting – i dont do novices and I dont do maidens etc – so I have learnt my lesson. I need to focus on my strengths and it is not in those races. In future horses such as above will just be included in a shortlist…
What I do like is a 25 runner 3m 2f Handicap Chase over the Grand National Fences (or the Hennessy 🙂 )…those of you who read the blog post helped yourself to a 33/1 (or 25/1) winner as Oscar Time received another worldy ride from Sam and hung on bravely. I also nabbed the 4th with Alfie Spinner running well at 25/1 for a good EW return. Bruton Port’s run confirms that the JonJo stable is really out of form – unless this was only ever a sighter for April. However, it was a rather good day!
Anyway, there is nearly always a tomorrow in this game..
NO BET DAY
This is something I should have done twice before and my instinct says to leave alone. Knowing people are backing these horses with their own money (including me!) I am not going to put up a horse I dont have 100% confidence in.
The one i am interested in is Oscatara in the 13.15 Muss. Now I will be backing him because he is a selection of my latest micro-system which looks at Donald McCain’s handicap chasers in December. He has a 9/1 winner today at Kelso and his stats for the month for those priced 14/1 or under now stand at 1/3 + 7 points profit…those 30 mins stuck in my system building software look like they will pay off!
However….this horse has pulled up in 3 of his last 5 races. How on earth can i put him up with confidence. I can’t make an excuse for all of the PUs and it looks like maybe he is a bleeder or a shirker (although lack of headgear suggests this isnt the case – Donald doesnt hesistate in putting blinkers on his runners). If he were to pull up tomorrow, having ‘tipped’ him I would just curse. Now he should lead, and he likes the ground and it may be the case that he just wants to go right handed – this will be the first time he has gone this way round. He is young, unexposed and comes from the now red hot McCain yard. If there were no PUs in his form line then he would be a selection, without hesitation. But, i just cant do it!
There is nothing that catches the eye on the sand tomorrow. Those races with clear front runners are large fields and I just dont know the form well enough- the All-Weather isnt something I bet on that much at all.
That is it for now, hopefully a decent horse will unveil itself for Tuesday.