Pace Wins The Race: Selections 01/12/14

Re-Cap

Well Comeonginger was rather disappointing. I thought it was soft however the ground was later changed to heavy and i dont think he liked it. Combined with the fact that he couldnt get to the front meant we knew our fate early on. To his credit he kept on well and there will be more wins in him when there is a bit less juice in the ground.

The two shortlisted horses I was fairly warm on both ran crackers. Coneygreee won well having been punted from 4/1 into 2/1. He benefited from the fall of the fav and who knows what would have happened otherwise. He is one to keep onside moving forward, his front running tactics and bold jumping will win him many races. Over at Wolverhampton Woodbridge was backed from 7/1 into 4/1 or so and lost out by a nose in a photo. He got the front as expected but just buckled in the last stride. Still, another positive for the ‘Pace’ approach.

Tomorrow..

2.10 Plumpton 

Alright Benny 11/8 – 1 point to win (bet365)

I will never suggest putting more than 1 point on for these daily selections (i think any approach should be judged on a 1 point win or 1/2 point ew bets) – however I have personally put 2 points on as I really cant see him losing this. He is a front runner but can sit off as well. I think he should get an uncontested lead however it is possibly he gets taken on by Shantou Breeze. If he does I am more than comfortable if he tracks him. The trainer has clearly kept him for this race as he knows he likes the track and conditions are fine. He is the only horse to have won in soft or heavy. Shantou Breeze has ran 5 times and no places to show, Head Spin 8 times and no places to show, and Bobbits way has placed twice from nine runs on this going -however he has never won.

There are so many questions over the others that for me, if Alright Benny simply repeats any of his last 3 runs they will not get near him. I think 11/8 with Bet365 is a massive price. I know I have said I dont like putting up horses under 3/1 but i think this is a value price and one we should all take. In fact I would back him at all prices down to about evens. How he is not odds on I have no idea. All of the others have to prove themselves in the conditions so I am happy to back him.

2.30 Wolverhampton 

Boogangoo – 8/2 1 point win (bet365)

Picture the scene if you will. You own/train a 3yo who is a front runner. This front runner has only just failed to get home over 8/9 furlongs the last couple of races but has ran with great credit. She has been ridden by two different jockeys.

What do you do?

1. You drop the horse down in trip to 7 furlongs. You know she has the speed and extra stamina and that you horse hasnt run over this distance for nearly a year, when she was competing in nurseries. You know she has competed well over this distance and has the speed.

2. You book the best front running flat jockey in the country by some distance. Yes, Joe Fanning is the man you want on board.

So, to cut a long story short this horse is a front runner and it was the drop in trip and booking of Fanning that caught my eye. It is the first time that the trainer has used Fanning on this horse and considering that he won on her when under the care of Keith Dalgleish I would like to think they mean business. She is in good form, has no problem with conditions and she is simply too big at 8/1. – over the next 12 months or so I would be quite disappointed if we didnt make 50 points or so just from Fanning front runners 🙂

Now there are a couple of live dangers in this, and in all honestly more likely winners. Be Royale was very unlucky on her last run and did very well to get so close given her carpark draw. She will go very close here, but is 3/1 and not 8/1. We will at least have track positioning on our side.

There are a few other last time out winners in the field as well but i am happy with our chances here. There is no better judge of pace from the front then Joe Fanning and given he knows he has a filly who gets further than 7 I hope he makes plenty of use of her. If she can get to the front and he can kick turning in I would be surprised if she gets caught.

That is all for tomorrow..

Shortlist

2.50 Kempt – Trojan Rocket caught my eye and although he will be a short price I think George Baker will bump him out in front and will go very close. It is a claimer and these can be strange races which made me hesitate in putting him as a main selection however if anywhere near 2/1 I will probably have a bet. That was it really, there were no other front runners that caught my eye.

UPDATE – Trojan Rocket’s main rival is now a non runner and i think that Evens is big in the context of his chance. I expect George to get to the front and stay there. i have had 1 point bet on him, but the result will not be counted in PWTR results.

Good Luck

Running Total- 

3/9 = 11/5 points 

*** Later this week, I think Tuesday (but will email out) I am going to share a ‘live’ over the shoulder video of how I find the ‘Pace Wins The Race Selections’ and the main bit of kit I use. This tool has changed my betting – helping me win over 550 points so far this calendar year. Anyone who likes picking their own horses to back should be using it 🙂  So, stay tuned ***