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Tips for Saturday
Re cap on – I dont think there are many better places to be than a sun drenched Aintree and it was a great evening last night, with a roller-coaster of emotions. Titchwood and Echo Springs in the last ensured I came away with 10 points profit which wasnt too bad. I am still annoyed I didnt back Bear’s Affair and having toyed with that race for a long made the wrong decision. That is hindsight though! Gabrial The Great hacked up hard held, and I didnt take the evens. When they win like that it makes evens look a massive price. Anyway, it was a great night out and we move onto today.
There are no sprint handicaps I am interested in, instead a couple of profile horses and one in the 2.40 Newbury
2.40 Newbury Indignant 6/1 1point win
I backed her at 8/1 and in the time it has taken me to start writing this she is into 6/1 already. I wont write too much here, but she has an obvious form chance and you would like to think she will be revved up for this by team Hannon. Proven on the ground, trip,class and open to stacks of improvement I thought 8/1 looked too big this morning. However, it was the pace angle that really intrigued me. Indignant, Tellovoi and Kenny Powers are the only runners in field who have not been held up in any of their last 4 runs. They are also the only 3 who have led in any of their most recent runs. I think indignant is better and faster than the other two and it is possible Hughes may be able to dictate, or at least be up with the pace. I do not like backing held up horses in general, as you need lots to go in your favour. I think Indignant may be able to lead from gate to post and if Hughes gets the pace and kick right, he may be able to steal a few lengths and put race to bed entering final couple of furlongs.
5.10 Thirsk – Doc Hay 18/1 1pt win.
This is slightly speculative but at 18/1 worth a punt. This is a rest pattern selection. In handicaps he has ran 5 times when returning to the track within 7 days of his last run winning 3 times. These wins have been worth +30 points to level stakes. He has won 3 times in handicaps outside of this period, from 24 runs. Importantly none of those 3 wins when returning within 7 days were back to back, but each time were normally after an unplaced effort in the race before. Now, this is the second run for Brian Ellison and he was very poor last time out, but it is interesting that he runs him so quickly. He is back to his last winning mark with all other conditions in his favour and he has placed at the course. At the price, he is interesting, and could run a big race.
7.30 Doncaster – Boonga Roogeta 11/2 1 point win.
For me this horse always goes of at bigger prices than she should be and that is probably because of unfashionable connections. There are two main angles into this selection, firstly rest pattern (and general consisnt,proven form) and more importantly pace. She has won 50% of her starts on the flat to date, 8 wins from 16. Class,course,distance, ground and time of year are all fine, no problems there. She is only 5 and open to further improvement. Now she is 2/2 when returning between 91-365 days. 3 from 4 when returning within 8-15 days, never out of places yet. 4 from 7 when returning within 7 days. 0 from 6 and no places outside of tihs period. That may be due to other factors, and in truth given she is so prolific at the moment it is hard to discern a clear pattern. However, the pace angle swings the balance. 6 runner and to me it looks like she could get an uncontested lead. Now some other jockeys will know she can get away from the front and may ensure that doesnt happen. But, if she does get a lead, which running styles to date suggests she may well do, she could get away. Her jockey is very good at winding up the pace from the front and I think she will go close. There are a couple of unexposed horses in this race that may turn out to be better than her but at 11/2 i think it is worth taking a punt.