Well it has been a good two weeks or so for me- since the 21st August i have made about 55 points profit, with Almargo at 16/1 and Rise to Glory at 20/1 being two of the highlights, as well as a scattering of other winners. That means so far in 2014 i am 320 points which i am very happy with. Since i started recording my bets properly since last July i am about 370 points up and i hope to keep it going at Ascot. I do not repeat those figures to boast – but hopefully to give some credibility to my ramblings – i have a certain approach and it works for me..anyway, lets look forward…(you can always find what i am backing on Twitter Josh_HW,which is where i post my main fancies)
1.55
Hawkeythenoo 28/1 – 1/2 point EW 4 places
Day of Conquest 14/1 – 1 point win
Almargo 14/1 – 1 point win
all with Betvictor. who at the time of writing are the best odds on all three.
With a race like this i usually like to use some trends to narrow the field down to a more manageable size, however there is not much to go on here given the limited runnings of the race. The thing that immediately stands out is the number of horses i have successfully backed already this season. Almargo, Heavy Metal,Safety Check and Dont Call Me have collectively won me around 90 points this season – part of me wants to back them all out of loyalty!
Having looked at the pace of the race, it seems that middle to high drawn horses may have the best of things, and those drawn low may struggle. Pace is always a tricky thing in races with 18 or so runners as you never know where they will run. they could all converge down the middle, which may erode any advantage, or they may split and run along the rails. I am hoping for the latter with Almargo – he is primarily a pace selection – if he is able to get across to the stands side rail i cant see that anything will take him on for the lead. He had the run of the race at Goodwood, and most of the horses didnt have a chance due to the draw, but he still won like a progressive, tough horse, and he could get his way again on stands side and be tough to beat. At the prices i thought he was worth a bet.
Day of Conquest ties in very closely with Safety Check but he is more than twice the price. If you fancy Safety Check (and i do, i think he has a strong chance) then you have to fancy Day of Conquest – based on their Goodwood running. That race was the seasonal debut fir DoC and he did have a fair bit of traffic trouble but still managed to get close near the end. With Ryan Moore up and 14/1 (compared to 13/2 Safety check) i thought he was worth a bet.
Hawkeythenoo is obviously far more speculative and this is a bit if an instinct bet – I dont mind being wrong about 28/1 shots! With Jim Goldie horses you really dont need to worry about what kind of form they are in -his horses appear to come back to form unexpectedly quite often. It could be that aged 8, he is past it now, and is on the downgrade but there are plenty of past bits of form, including a win over course and distance, which makes me think he could go well. Anyway, the price drew me in, and if he places it will cover the other two bets.
5.15
Taajub 16/1 – 1 point EW
I backed this horse last time out as he had become well handicapped and he has a touch of class about him, being a previous Class 2 winner. If there is one thing i have really taken on board this flat season it is to keep a close eye on those horses i have backed on their next 2/3 runs- i have missed out on a few winners this year from abandoning a horse too early and i dont want to make that mistake with this horse. He didnt have the best of the draw for his newmarket run and didnt really get any cover. He will get a good pace here and be able to come through horses. He is another Course and Distance winner who i think will run a big race. Like i have said he is well handicapped and he looked to be coming into form last time out. There are 4 places to aim at and i hope he can at least be in the mix come the death, i think 16/1 is a few points too big. This is an open race and he has as good a chance as any.
Good Luck with whatever you are backing in what is a decent days racing. I have no strong views on the big sprint and havent had much time to look at it yet but i am sure i may find something to back!
Josh
