We move into the final day with a small loss after an awful day yesterday. That is the way it goes. We suffered two blank days at Cheltenham but had a really good final day, hopefully it is the same today.
Un Ace 9/1 1pt win
Wilde Blue Yonder 5/1 1pt win
I am ignoring Nichols and Henderson in this race despite their good recent records. Horses moving up in class and those that last ran in a handicap have poor records in this race. Yes it is those dreaded trends again, but I am not deserting them now. These two horses raced in the Supreme Novices, the race where Josses Hill came second and Sergeant Reckless ran a blinder. Both those horses came 1st and 2nd yesterday, and have upheld the form. These two horses were not too far behind and both look like they will relish the step up in trip.
Trifolium 3/1 3pts
Again there are some strong trends in this race. One of the strongest is that this race goes to horses who have had no more than 5 chase runs. That knocks out a lot of the principles – that could mean that this trend gets broken of course! This horse has a solid chance, and this race goes to fancied horses 4/1 or under. It is between him, HInterland and Dodging Bullets but I fancy this irish raider and have backed him. Is 3 points chasing losses, maybe, but today only happens once a year!!
Zarkandar 7/2 2 pts
This race is between this horse and Atfisherscross. One of them will win. Atfishers is 13/8 and what is the point in having money on at those odds unless you are piling £50+ on. No, not for me. I think they will use Zarkandar up front and if he can get a lead on atfishers coming to the second last, he may not be passed. He is tough, as he showed when beating The New One last year. At the odds, I am happy to take a chance
Saint Are 8/1 2pt win
Golden Chieften 33/1 1pt EW
This is a difficult race to assess as lots of these horses have questionable form. Saint Are performs well at this track and likes good ground. He won this race in 2012 of an 8lb higher mark. Last year he tried his hand in the national with no success. This is his trip, his track, his ground and his time of year. Big run expected. Golden Chieften should not be 33/1 when 4 places are up for grabs. This is his 3rd run back after an enforced break. He gets this trip well and he ran a stormer to make a mockery of a competitive field at the Cheltenham Festival last year. If he can get to that level, he could run a big race. Also, the stable has had a virus for a lot of this year, but that is now passed and their horses have been running well recently.
Race 5 THE GRAND NATIONAL
The greatest race and one of the best sporting occasions on earth. This race gets more and more difficult, with trends in the last few years sending different messages. However there is a profile of horse that typically does well. There are 3 horses below that should run well. I have had a £50 free bet I won on Teaforthree. He has a good chance and I wouldnt put you off. I do wonder if he has the gears to win and his run last time in the Gold Cup wasnt the greatest prep run, historically. But he should be top 5. I also have shrapnel on Raz De Maree at 50s. All of the following main bets have a strong chance in my opinion based on historical profiles, stats and trends. It isnt much good looking at traditional form as such. This is a unique test, and you do need lots of luck. The closest I have got since being a racing fanatic was Sunnihill Boy, who came second by a nose at 20/1 a few years back. Anyway, my main bets are:-
Burton Port 1pt EW -have to admit i got 33/1 on this horse, he is now 16s but worth a bet still. He has been aimed at this race I think since Jonjo probably got him in his care. A solid jumper, who should stay, and he has a touch of class. Hopefully a bold run.
Chance Du Roy 1pt EW 33/1 – again ticks a lot of boxes. There is a slight doubt in my mind about his stamina, but hopefully he can be top 5 (Betvictor paying top 6) and will return some money. He could well stay and if so it could be a very exciting finish.
Wayward Prince 66/1 (now 80/1 BV 6 places) This is a speculative one in truth, but he has been aimed at this race for a while (in truth a lot of them have!). He likes the track, but it is his first time running on the national course. Usually a solid jumper, he could outrun his odds!
Strong Point 1pt win
Rainbow Peak 1pt
Just what you need when you may be chasing losses, a conditional jockeys handicap hurdle. I am not overly confident about these selections but they are both proven in conditions with good jockeys on board. They are both good prices and should go OK.
BallyBolley 1/2 point
Modus 1/2 point
Well, the get out of jail race. Minimum stakes advised although if we are chasing i will put 1 point on each. Ballybolley is a trainer selection – NTD has sent 4 horses to this race for 2 winners. Modus ran a stormer at Cheltenham and was second of the home runnners, the rest infront of him were Irish Trained. Safe to assume he is one of best British runners and should go close.
That is 19 points laid out and could be an expensive day! However, as always I will remain hopeful. Bet as you wish, and always bet what you can afford to lose. There is no better feeling that tipping your own winner, so by all means follow as you see fit. Especially in the national, if there is a race to go for your favourite name etc, or any other illogical reason, then this is it.
Good luck, and happy punting!