Well well, what a difference a day makes! I hate losing, and I hate not solving the puzzle, so it was great to have a couple of winners today following yesterday’s blank. O’Faolain’s Boy win has made the festival in truth, but hopefully we can find another 16/1 winner. This week can go very badly and you can find yourself many points down. We are 14 or so points up (£140 to £10 stakes) going into tomorrow, and hopefully we can add to it.
Felix Younger 4/1 1pt win
Wonderful Charm 11/2 0.5 pt win
An interesting race, and I havent backed a Mullins/Walsh runner yet! hopefully Felix can run a good race as he should prefer the better ground. I am concerned about Nichols form, and he hasnt had a chase winner at the Festival since the great Kauto Star in 2009 (70+ runners now!) but that cycle must be broken at some stage, and WC is a good saver bet. I have a free bet on this race, courtesy of B365 and will be putting it in Double Ross for interest. He shouldnt be good enough but stranger things have happened. Oscar Whiskey deserved his chance as he hasnt done much wrong this year – he would be the main danger to our two for me.
Grand Vision 14/1 1pt win (or 1pt EW, or o.5 EW!! depends how brave you are! EW prob best.)
Crowning Jewel 25/1 – as above
The first of a few fiendishly difficult races today. I like these two, they tick a lot of trends and i have been watching both with interest as the season has progressed. I won on Crowning Jewel at aintree earlier in the season and he will appreciate the ground and he stays. Grand Vision has been aimed at this I feel and has a big race in him – havinh placed at the Festival before a year out with injury. Out of all the handicap races today i am most confident about these two, and if they struggle, it may well be a long day! Fingal Bay may romp away with this, all class, but not at the odds for me and he is top weight.
Al ferof 5/1 1pt win
Again the Nichols concern is there for this one, but he really does have a fantastic chance on everything we have seen so far. the irish have a poor record in this so we will stay with the home team. Dynaste may run him close and Menorah is interesting, but Al will do for me. Quietly confident, and would be more if it wasnt for concern over ther stable.
AtFishersCross 9/1 1pt win
At the odds I have to back this one, and although his best form is on heavy, there is no evidence yet that good ground will not suit. He will be spot on for this. I would love to see Big Bucks win but surely he is too old, and Annie Power could be anything, but no value there – will she stay? probably. if so, she could win on bridle.
Nadiya de la Vega 20/1 0.5 win
Christopher Wren 40/1 0.5 win
Oh my oh my, i really do not have much of a clue as to this race in truth! if we are not in profit on the day at this point I fear we will not be come the end of the day! I am interested in 4 I think, and may have a further think tomorrow, but i may put 0.5 on all 4. Problem with this race is that certain key trends and stats appear to knock out every runner. Something has to give, but as this race has thrown up surprises in the past i will go with the two above. They both fall down on certain key trends but oh well! Jockey bookings would suggest they are not overly fancied either. The other two of possible interest are Tatenan (although poor festival record and is a fragile horse) and Firth of the Clyde, who looks interesting. But, i wouldn’t bet the mortgage on this race!
and it doesn’t get much easier…
Buddy Bolero 16/1 o.5EW
Twirling Magnet 12/1 0.5EW
Again a tricky race, and there a number of key trends which leave these two, and they will do for me. the break for Twirling magnet is a concern, but horses do win at the festival of a break of more than 90 days, but not very often! importantly he has won fresh. You also, according to history, want a non-claiming jockey. Hopefully these two can reward minor interest and we will have something to cheer coming up the hill.
If they all lose, we will be 9 points or so down on the day, but still in profit overall. Many people would like to go into day 4 still in profit!
whatever you back good luck.