Well, not much to say about Day 3 really, another blank! That is the way it goes when the racing is this competitive! When Tony McCoy cant even pick the right horses to ride (he could have ridden the winner of the Champion Hurdle and the World Hurdle) then it puts the punter’s task into perspective! Tarquin De Seuil was put up by Jonjo as his best chance of the week – he won, Dynaste was put up by David Pipe as his best chance of the week – he won, and Fingal Bay was put up by Richard Johnson as his best ride of the week…maybe should have listened a bit more!! There were some ok runs for out money, Atfishers Cross finishing 3rd at 9/1, and Tatenan finished 3rd at 33/1 and he was mentioned in dispatches (although not confidently!) I though Fingal Bay would go close, and he did, a nose in it at the line, proving again Dickie Johnson is the best jockey in a driving finish, and the greatest Champion Jockey that never was.
Anyway, we must look forward, to what i fear could be another difficult day- but it wont be for the want of trying hard, and I wont be holding back. Blog wise, sticking to advised stakes, you would be around 4-6 points in profit is getting early prices, and we will have given most of that back after the first…
Race 1
Guitar Pete 8/1 – 2pts WIN (PP, money back if 2nd or 3rd)
Royal Irish Hussar 9/1 – 2pts WIN (Skybet, money back if Fav wins)
Both have live chances in an open race. Every irish winner of this race won the race that Guitar Pete did last time. RIH will be primed for this, and Henderson knows what is needed to win it. There are a few dangers, namely the fav who could get Nichols his first winner.
Race 2
Cheltenian 10/1 1pt EW
Lac Fontana 12/1 1pt EW
Morning Royalty 66/1 0.5EW
Wide open race and I will have these three on my side. I am hoping Morning Royalty can sneak a place as he fits a lot of main trends and looking at his form a big run wouldnt be a total surprise. Cheltenian will go close (that is the same confidence i exuded for Crowning Jewel and Grand Vision!!) as will Lac Fontana. Hopefully this is Nichols first winner of an otherwise disappointing festival. Montbazon is calling out to me as well, and I may not be able to resist throwing 1/2 a point his way at 25s.
Race 3
Very Wood 50/1 o.5 EW
In truth I have no idea about this, other than Briars Hill is a worthy fav, but I wont back at that price, and Kings Palace is a worthy second fav. I am hoping to snatch 3rd and the step up in trip and a string gallop will suit this horse. Who knows, although it may be £10 i will never see again!
Race 4
Well quite simply one of the top two in the market should win this if running up to form. They are the nest two horses in the race and I cant wait to watch it. I am not sure who will come out on top, but if backing Bobs worth you know you will be in the race jumping the last. Silvianco Conti will chase him all the way. I cant see past these two. I havent bet yet, but if I do it will only be for interest as the odds dont interest me too much. I am partly tempted to wade in on Bobs at 2/1 but will depend how the first 3 races go!
Race 5
No idea quite simply and I havent had the time to study it. The fav looks strong but i dont have any strong opinions.
Race 6
Une Artiste 33/1 0.5EW
One Lucky Lady 33/1 0.5EW
Am hoping that Nicky Henderson can land a big priced winner. Also like the skyfarmer and will have a small tickle on him.
Race 7
Lancetto 33/1 1ptEW
There has not been a winner in the last 10 years that has carried more than 10’13 in this race. Moreover every winner has raced at Chelts before. That doesn’t leave many runners left, but this is one of them. He looks like he has been aimed at this race by capable connections and in a wide open race, he will do for me!
Good luck.
