And so it begins…for horse racing fans tonight feels a bit like Christmas Eve. Tomorrow is obviously a very busy day, and as ever selectivity is the order of the day. However, this is one day in the punting year where you can allow for a bit of indulgence and to really have some fun. So, here are my thoughts on a few races tomorrow…
(Green highlights my fancies, and main bets can be found at the bottom)
CAPE TRIBULATION. He is simply too big at 10/1. His trainer has a great record at the track with chasers, not to mention in this race. This horse won last year’s running and he relishes very testing ground. I also think he is one of the best jumpers in the field and around this course that will count for quite a bit. his last two runs were also interesting, i think he has been laid out for this. A great EW bet in my opinion. There are a few young improving horses in the line up but i will stick with the experience.
ANEYEFORANEYE. ticks a few boxes for me and again too big at around 10/1. Another MJ runner who i hope will go close. The ground should be OK, and importantly he is 2 from 2 at the trip and as such the drop back in distance will suit. Also he has a strong rest-pattern profile which is something i like to follow. When returning form the track within 30 days of last race he is 1 from 13 with 4 places. When returning within 31-60 days he has never finished outside of places. 6 runs, 3 wins and 3 further places. This includes 2 from 2 over the larger obstacles. That will do for me.
That is it for Wetherby. I am interested in the McCain runners due to his form at the course, his form on Boxing Day in last couple of years and fact the main man, jason maguire is here. I think i am taking his best two chances on with my two selections above, but it would not be a total surprise to see Bourne or Right to Rule trouble the judge, in addition to Sydney Padget or Grouse Lodge. Maybe a yankee could be our first indulgence…
Nicky Henderson, boxing day, non handicaps, his record with french breds at the course (and record of french breds in general at this fixture) all culminate in the second indulgent bet…I have had a small double on Vaniteux and Ericht. They are not races I like to play in generally (unless having a fun day out at the races) but it is boxing day. As with all good doubles I am sure just 1 will win! If just betting on one then Ericht would be the call
Much better judges than me have written about this race and there are many fine write ups that you can find on this race. We will all have our opinions and I am not sure how you can have an overly strong one about who will win out of Al ferof, Silvianco Conti, Cue Card or Dynaste. However, on balance, and due to the odds (as well as a few doubts about others), I have had a little bit EW on Silviniaco Conti at 5/1 and on Long Run at 12/1 who has never finished out of the places right handed.
3.45 Master of the Game. All about Nicky Henderson again. his record in the race is very good, and he is interesting at 14/1. i cant think he will be that price come race time. On form there are a few questions but it is worth an interest bet. You would be kicking yourself if he hacked up given trainer’s record.
DONNAS PALM…this is an interesting one and I am backing him based on his rest-pattern profile. Now, he is out of form, he has fallen down the handicap by some way but he does have class if the spark returns. That spark may be his liking for running within 15 days of his last run. now, admittedly he has never won a handicap But But But… when returning within 15 days of his last run he has only finished out of the places once. 7 runs, 4 wins, 2 further places. Heavy is fine, but there is a doubt over the trip. All in all, he is interesting. No odds available yet, but if they are ok then it is worth a small interest play.
well a class 5 handicap chase!! you can tell it is boxing day! This should be between Bill The Lad and Todareistodo. I fancy the latter because he loves the course and i find the jockey booking interesting. Arguably he is one of the best, if not the best, jockey at the course today. With so many meetings I find this interesting (will come to the Venetia Willams runners shortly…) This horse also won the same race last year and he must surely go well. At the prices he is the one for me.
now all my other bets revolve around her runners
3.40 Mistarva. Now I rarely bet in bumper races but this horse is interesting. No odds available yet so may be no value but VW has won this bumper twice in last few years, and has great record with bumper runners at the track. Interesting. Small stakes.
VW and Liam Tredwell have some other interesting runners/rides at Towcester tomorrow and it would not be a surprise to see them both do well. I would think a few trainers are happy to have treadwell on board and you would think he is on some horses with live chances. VW also has some interesting runners at Wincanton…
into the finishing straight now…
2.50 RYDALIS. yes our old friend Rydalis. Will this be third time lucky? For me this is a two horse race, with the main danger being Bucks Bond. However, I do not think his form stacks up to much, and on his last run he benefited when two rivals fell when travelling well. I was on both at good odds and it looked like one of them would win. His jumping can also be dodgy although he jumped well LTO. I think Rydalis will win (or come second!!) and at 5/1 is a good bet for me. The rest have questions over distance,ground and class. This is a weaker race than Rydalis has encountered in past 2/3 races and she will go close. This run may come too quick but hopefully not.
That is it for me. I will also be keeping an eye on Shockingtimes in the 1.35 Market Raisen. Given his fall LTO, 4/1 is not a great price but i think he will go close if completing. (he was one of the horses coming to challenge Buck’s Bond)
My main bets for the day are..
Cape Tribulation EW
Good luck and have fun! Hopefully we can back a couple of winners!