Last winter jumps season’s ‘monthly trainers’ pulled in around +96 points profit, to 1 point win bets, BFSP. We may not do that well this season, but time will tell!
October was a bit of a ‘so-so’ start for win only players to BFSP, the four trainers combined: 11/40, 12p, -1.78 to BFSP, +9.51 betfair place. On this occasion, taking morning odds would have added around +10 points or so, if not more, as many were well backed. Tom Lacey let the team down (0/8,2p, -8), for all it was clear early on he wasn’t firing and many appeared to be needing the run. I’ve included him again below with his handicappers.
We hurtle into November, which has a strange feel to it, given how dry it remains generally. It’s usually ‘Venetia’ time, and she’s already had a 13/2 winner for us at Ascot, but whether she has the usual number of runners, given the ground, time will tell. Whether some yards have done as much work on the grass at home as usual, it remains to be seen. That may explain why some are behind, as grass work usually puts the finishing touches on a horse, esp fitness and sharpness. I suspect it’s just too firm in some places.
Let’s crack on to November… starting with the ‘November time’ mainstay, who’s pulled in around +90 points BFSP since start 2019 when first tracked properly.
Venetia Williams
- November
- All Handicap Chases
- Horse Aged 4-8
- Horse runs prev 90 days: Not 1 only.
| Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% | P/L(BF) | P/L(Plc) | BF A/E | |
| ALL | 142 | 41 | 28.87 | 151.95 | 65 | 45.77 | 195.52 | 43.04 | 1.73 |
| 2024 | 2 | 1 | 50 | 5 | 1 | 50 | 5.14 | 3.01 | 2.7 |
| 2023 | 20 | 8 | 40 | 25.95 | 11 | 55 | 35.84 | 4.21 | 1.78 |
| 2022 | 19 | 4 | 21.05 | -6.5 | 7 | 36.84 | -6.31 | -5.33 | 0.98 |
| 2021 | 15 | 4 | 26.67 | 38.5 | 7 | 46.67 | 43.01 | 9.98 | 2.06 |
| 2020 | 16 | 4 | 25 | 5.5 | 8 | 50 | 6.95 | 4.51 | 1.47 |
| 2019 | 17 | 4 | 23.53 | 8 | 9 | 52.94 | 10.38 | 6.32 | 1.51 |
| 2018 | 8 | 2 | 25 | 22 | 3 | 37.5 | 35.19 | 6.03 | 2.63 |
| 2017 | 13 | 2 | 15.38 | 1.5 | 3 | 23.08 | 2.04 | -4.54 | 1.19 |
| 2016 | 12 | 3 | 25 | 14.5 | 6 | 50 | 21.9 | 6.42 | 1.75 |
| 2015 | 20 | 9 | 45 | 37.5 | 10 | 50 | 41.36 | 12.43 | 2.75 |
*
Kim Bailey
- November
- Handicap Chase/Handicap Hurdle (standard, non-novice), Novice hurdles
- Odds: 11/1 or shorter SP (bigger: 1/65, 10p, -45)
| Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% | P/L(BF) | P/L(Plc) | BF A/E | |
| ALL | 188 | 51 | 27.13 | 81.3 | 105 | 55.85 | 115.28 | 47.17 | 1.38 |
| 2024 | 2 | 1 | 50 | 1.75 | 1 | 50 | 1.73 | -0.18 | 2.7 |
| 2023 | 26 | 8 | 30.77 | 13.96 | 14 | 53.85 | 19.51 | 7.68 | 1.74 |
| 2022 | 25 | 7 | 28 | 4.26 | 15 | 60 | 5.95 | 8.38 | 1.1 |
| 2021 | 11 | 3 | 27.27 | 3.75 | 6 | 54.55 | 4.94 | 3.31 | 1.49 |
| 2020 | 28 | 9 | 32.14 | 13.2 | 17 | 60.71 | 21.4 | 7.34 | 1.56 |
| 2019 | 20 | 5 | 25 | 10.75 | 11 | 55 | 15.14 | 5.77 | 1.4 |
| 2018 | 12 | 2 | 16.67 | 0 | 6 | 50 | 1.72 | 1.31 | 1.05 |
| 2017 | 28 | 5 | 17.86 | -5.37 | 15 | 53.57 | -2.35 | 0.38 | 0.9 |
| 2016 | 21 | 4 | 19.05 | 6 | 10 | 47.62 | 7.65 | 4.25 | 1.06 |
| 2015 | 15 | 7 | 46.67 | 33 | 10 | 66.67 | 39.6 | 8.95 | 2.25 |
*
Fergal O’Brien
- November
- All National Hunt Handicaps
- Odds: 11/1 or shorter SP
| Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% | P/L(BF) | P/L(Plc) | BF A/E | |
| ALL | 224 | 65 | 29.02 | 80.23 | 109 | 48.66 | 123.08 | 16.31 | 1.46 |
| 2024 | 2 | 1 | 50 | 3.5 | 1 | 50 | 4.25 | 0.27 | 3.45 |
| 2023 | 24 | 7 | 29.17 | 10.76 | 10 | 41.67 | 19.19 | -2.21 | 1.78 |
| 2022 | 33 | 10 | 30.3 | 11.38 | 14 | 42.42 | 15.07 | -2.94 | 1.5 |
| 2021 | 43 | 13 | 30.23 | 19.13 | 22 | 51.16 | 28.92 | 7.94 | 1.48 |
| 2020 | 32 | 10 | 31.25 | 20.26 | 17 | 53.13 | 29.98 | 4.24 | 1.56 |
| 2019 | 28 | 10 | 35.71 | 7.41 | 18 | 64.29 | 9.63 | 3.71 | 1.41 |
| 2018 | 18 | 5 | 27.78 | -0.84 | 9 | 50 | 0.02 | 2.92 | 1.31 |
| 2017 | 18 | 6 | 33.33 | 21.25 | 9 | 50 | 26.79 | 6.08 | 1.94 |
| 2016 | 17 | 3 | 17.65 | -3.62 | 8 | 47.06 | -1.77 | 3.35 | 0.99 |
| 2015 | 9 | 0 | 0 | -9 | 1 | 11.11 | -9 | -7.05 | 0 |
*
Tom Lacey
- November
- Handicap Chase / Handicap Hurdle (standard, non-novice)
- Odds: 8/1 or shorter SP (bigger: 0/28,3p)
| Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% | P/L(BF) | P/L(Plc) | BF A/E | |
| ALL | 62 | 22 | 35.48 | 47.85 | 38 | 61.29 | 59.67 | 17.54 | 1.65 |
| 2024 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 100 | -1 | 1.13 | 0 |
| 2023 | 9 | 5 | 55.56 | 12.32 | 7 | 77.78 | 14.56 | 4.79 | 2.56 |
| 2022 | 8 | 2 | 25 | -2.55 | 4 | 50 | -2.4 | -2.13 | 0.94 |
| 2021 | 7 | 3 | 42.86 | 9.5 | 4 | 57.14 | 12.1 | 1.71 | 2.46 |
| 2020 | 14 | 3 | 21.43 | 2.33 | 5 | 35.71 | 4.71 | -2.12 | 1.11 |
| 2019 | 7 | 2 | 28.57 | 2.25 | 4 | 57.14 | 3.04 | -0.24 | 1.06 |
| 2018 | 4 | 3 | 75 | 12.5 | 3 | 75 | 13.96 | 2.78 | 3.95 |
| 2017 | 7 | 3 | 42.86 | 14.5 | 6 | 85.71 | 16.64 | 7.69 | 2.17 |
| 2016 | 2 | 1 | 50 | 1 | 1 | 50 | 1.06 | -0.13 | 2.27 |
| 2015 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 3 | 100 | -3 | 4.05 | 0 |
*
END.
4 responses
No Twister?
Twister was October. 7/17, 12p, +3.38 BFSP. I don’t have a November angle for him.
Hi Josh
Now you’re into your real love of the game you will let your genius start to produce results you and I know you deserve
The games afoot
Go get em. Sherlock.
ha, far too kind! I’ll be doing my best, let’s go!
Josh