Today’s Stats Starting Points
This is a ‘stats first’ approach, NO assessment of the horses form, profile or suitability for conditions, has gone into the below. These angles are here to help give you a kick start, save time and add some focus, before further analysis. They pull through horses at all odds, inc a fair few ‘no-hopers’. With any luck a fun, engaging and rewarding challenge over time. You may decide to focus on a particular section, eg. 4-5 trainer-track form, handicaps, certain race types, you name it. They fire out plenty of winners over time. Let’s crack on…
1.Trainers ‘In-Form’
Trainers with a 30%+ win SR in either last 14d or 30d, & a 30%+ win SR with today’s jockey in the last 2 years, all races.
None.
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2. Trainer & Jockey Combos ‘In-Form’
Trainers & Jockeys with a 30%+ SR together in last 14d or 30d, 5+ runners.
- 12.25 Leic – Sole Solution
- 12.55 Leic – Jikala
- 12.55 Leic – Pearl Island
- 1.05 Winc – Lady Darbanville
- 1.25 Leic – Authodidacte
- 1.35 Winc – Sparkling Duke
- 1.35 Winc – Keable
- 2.05 Winc – Jour Devasion
- 2.25 Leic – Davids Well
- 2.35 Winc – Sherborne
- 2.35 Winc – Poppa Poutine
- 2.35 Winc – Flowing Cadenza
- 3.10 Winc – Moonlight Artist
- 3.23 MR – Silver Hill
- 3.23 MR – Espresso Milan
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3.Trainers ‘In-Form’ + Jockey ‘In-Form’
Trainers with a 30%+ win SR in either last 14d or 30d, and today’s jockey has a 30%+ win SR in last 14d or 30d, all rides.
- 2.35 Winc – Flowing Cadenza
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4. Trainer + Jockey Track Form
Trainer with a 30%+ win SR all runners at track last 2 years, & a 30%+ win SR with today’s jockey at the track in last 2 years.
- 12.45 MR – Viyanni
- 1.05 Winc – Lady Darbanville
- 1.55 Leic -That’s The Badger
- 2.05 Winc – Jour Devasion
- 2.25 Leic – Johnny Mac
- 3.35 Leic – Passing Kate
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5. Trainer Track Form
Trainers with at least 5 winners at track and a 25%+ win SR in last 2 years, ALL runners, but just pulling through runners in all handicap hurdles & handicap chases.
- 12.15 MR – Love Trie
- 12.35 Winc – No No Tango
- 1.45 MR – Bennettsbridge
- 1.45 MR – Entity of Substanz
- 2.05 Winc – Golden Move
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December Trainers
- 12.55 Leic – Jikala (any)
- 12.35 Winc – Hunter Legend (any)
- 1.45 MR – Lady Mendoza (22/1<)
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Today’s Tips & Notes
x1 from me today…
2.35 Winc – Pachacuti – 9/2 2nd, neck, 11/4. Painful.
I thought he looked a shade big here in this 25f staying handicap chase, in ideal conditions for him. He’s only 7, 1/6,4p in handicap chases (2/9,6p all handicaps, generally consistent/tries) and with the promise of more to come this season. His win was around here, over this CD, his final run of last season, where he did it well enough, beating an in-form horse, front two clear. His form before that was solid, the Exeter and FL efforts decent enough in races which have worked out well. There’s a chance proper heavy stretches him, or he does just want this extended trip rather than a bare 3m, which he gets here, and on proper ‘soft’, but not heavy, officially at least. I’d like to think this race has been pencilled in for some time given his CD win, a pipe opening when last seen, first run n 245 days, a trip too short, esp around NA. They left the CP off him that day, but they return here, his form having improved when applied last season. He should race prominently. I thought he was probably the one to beat here and looked overpriced.
Sherborne is fav which I don’t quite understand, for all in form, but evidently this mark is no gift and there remains a stamina question, for all only one go at 3m. Maybe he beats me but I thought short enough. AS I did Flowing C at 7/2, for all it is Venetia, and she can do no wrong at the moment. First run in over 600 days, which may not stop her, but they’d be questions from this mark even if on song, and it’s not a track where VW is prolific, Charlie at Leicester, for all that may not stop her either! Aged 10, I thought enough questions there at the price, but we’ll see. Striking A Pose may run ok but has lost his position before around here, and has been well beaten in a similar race. He’s 1/16 over fences, 0/11 in standard handicap chases, and isn’t one to rely on over a fence, but I suppose he could fall in I’d want to see a bit more from Poppa Poutine before wading into him.
That leaves I See The Sea, along with the selection, arguably the two still open to progress as chasers. This is his seasonal return and chase debut, and at 9/2 I was happy to leave, hopefully Pipe’s puts his fitness/exp to good use, but he’s related to chasers and is the ‘lurker’, if he jumps and if he’s fit. Hard to get a grip on his form/ability to date though.
Hopefully Pipe’s can add another CD win to his CV here, but he’ll give it a good go.
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Bass Rock ran ok, moving well enough, generally jumping ok for all I may not want him at a course with proper stiff fences. A chance he wants it softer, or that trip just stretched him, or he still needed it a tad. 3m around Carlisle say, may be worth a go, he still showed enthusiasm. He’s obviously had issues and maybe you do have to question his heart for a battle/under the pump, but he’s worth another go at some point. A stiff/muddy 2m5f or so may well be ideal also and that was solid enough form. Frenchy Du Large should have won it but hung his chance away, whether he’ll be as good NTO, we’ll see. Both his chase wins have come LH, and in 31-60 day breaks, and he’s well enough handicapped esp with Ned’s 5lb. Come next month he can run in Vets company also. He’ll pop up at some point, he’s a nice jumper and showed plenty of enthusiasm.
I thought Kilta for team England, shaped with a fair amount of promise at Haydock in the 1.10pm. He can race in weaker contests than he did here, likes a bit of soft, and moved for a good while as if he could be well handicapped as a chaser, lightly raced. It could be he wants 3m also, one to watch NTO I suspect for shrewd connections.
Hopefully some of you had a go on the VW ‘double’ flagged on here and in the telegram chat group. All a bit of fun for all after they both hacked up I obv wished I was more confident! But, a nice return nonetheless.
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