[Free Post] Royal Ascot Day 4 (complete)

Stats quals, trends, Friday’s x2 pokes

Trainer / Jockey Qualifiers

Trainers, Jockeys and ‘Handicap’ pointers…

2.30 – Fully Wet (JG, FD)

3.05 – Wings Of War (CC)

4.20 – Grande Dame (JG)

4.20 – Inspiral (JG)

5.00 – Fresh Hope (CF)

6.10 – Fai Fai (CF)

Trainer/Jockey Combos

None.

*

Handicaps Pointers

Stats, Trends & Trainers

3.40

14/240, 54p

14/14 ran over 1m4f or further last start (shorter: 0/70, 11p)

13/14 aged 4 or 5 (age 6+ : 1/51, 8p)

13/14 top 2 at least once last three starts (did not: 1/64, 9p)

13/14 sent off 8/1 or shorter SP (bigger: 1/92, 11p)

12/14 running at same class as last start (down: 0/40, 7p; Up 2/40, 9p)

12/14 had yet to race beyond 1m5f in career (had run 1m6f+ : 2/116, 19p)

12/14 placed on last start (did not: 2/119, 16p)

Other

  • Horse had 0 handicap wins: 0/35, 7p
  • Horse ran in C1 last start: 0/36, 7p

Trainer

  • H Morrison: 3/7, 4p
  • M Johnston: 3/22, 7p
  • SMS: 3/9, 6p
  • x1: A King, R Beckett, C Appleby, D Elsworth, J Gosden

Applying the trends…

Those that ran over 1m4f or further last start and aged 4 or 5, would point to a working list of seven… (13/14, 13/128, 36p)…

Just Fine, Contact, Candleford, Cemhaan, Gold Maze, Sir Rumi, State Of Bliss

Of those to have finished top 2 at least once last three starts, running at the same class and had yet to run beyond 1m5f in career… 10/37, 18p…

Just Fine, Candleford

Trainers (to have won race/with runners)

  • Just Fine
  • Trawlerman
  • Stay Well
  • State Of Bliss

*

5.00

14/281, 54p

There’s no trends profile of note against my approach. Just the trainer pointers…

Trainers

  • C Fellowes: 2/2
  • x1: J Dunlop, J Murtagh, J Portman, M Johnston, D Wachman, M Bell, Ed Walker, R Hannon, J Gosden, W Ward, T Dascombe

Trainers (to have won race/with runners)

  • Heredia, Ellade
  • Crenelle, Kings Joy
  • Fresh Hope
  • Espresso
  • Present Moment

*

DAY 4 PREVIEW

3.40 – Cemhann -16/1 – 14/1

5.00 – Kings Joy – 20/1

Yesterday wasn’t much fun, but we go again. All five may still be running! Mandobi’s race was lost before the start, as can happen with young horses/that sort of environment, and he was far too keen through the race. Something was wrong with Yashin, maybe the heat, or he hated the ground, but that clearly wasn’t his running. Amortentia had no excuse to my eyes, not good enough. The other two were drawn on the wrong side and had no chance, esp Bolthole. Ouzo was too keen in his 1st CP, did too much, dropped out tamely. I think two of my picks came dead last. Superb!

What the jockeys do today with the draw is anyone’s guess. The going stick suggests nearside is faster but they all keep diving to the middle/low, and it’s very hard to run your race when only a small group comes one side, unless you’re a proper group horse in a handicap.

Now at -9.3 points from my TV change Ascot bank which isn’t disastrous as yet. I’ll try and get back into profit over the next couple of days…

Two pokes today…

3.40 – Cemhann

I don’t know why this one is so big and judging my confident levels I’d have to say this is the most bullish I’ll probably get with a handicapper this week. The poor sod. I don’t know why he isn’t single digits. He arrives on a hat-trick having bolted up the last twice, hitting the line very hard each time. He stays further, relishes fast ground by the looks of it and his form has a strong look to it. 8 subsequent winners out of his last two races and most at a solid level. In fact all of his races to date have a decent look to them. You could argue he has the best handicapping form in the race so far, based on what those he’s been beating have done since. There’s clearly bundles more to come from him on recent evidence. He hits my trends and is drawn in the right place I think. There isn’t loads of pace on paper in this and hopefully he can get out and track the pace, in the right spot to wind up and demolish these from 3f out. Here’s hoping!

The two minor niggles, more than built into the price… he has been keen enough the last twice, esp early. He does then drop his head. It hasn’t stopped him though, hitting the line very hard the last twice. If he does settle better his form is going to take off again. The other niggle is the yard form – Baker would never be consistently red hot, but this horse was his last winner I think. A few have placed and a plenty have been sent off at big odds. The horse was obviously in fine form when last seen, the only issue is if there’s a health issue in the string, which will be the excuse if he tails off!

So, we shall see. But if he runs to his best I’d be shocked were he out of the first 5/6 here and I think he could be the one to beat.

Of the rest… well the front three are short enough for me on the balance of their form/profiles.

Contact is interesting and I wouldn’t put you off him, hitting the trends also. The selection is double the price and I think his form is better. However, Contact has a decent attitude and hasn’t done anything wrong the last twice. Proper fast ground may be a question but he should run his race and may not be far away here. He was the other one I pondered, maybe I’ll regret not putting them both up.

5.00 – Kings Joy

A nightmare of a race and one you’d only play in because ‘it’s Royal Ascot, and where’s the fun in just watching!‘ – One from the ‘trainers list’, the hope that those trainers who’ve won this before know full well the type of filly required to win it again. John Gosden’s ‘second string’ looks a big price to me. I thought there was a strong chance this sort of test – big field, proper pace, stiff 8f – may well see her take a big step forward here. She has course experience and her races have worked out ok – well a few from that Ascot maiden have placed in C1s, some with ratings around 100 now. She’s very well bred and when it clicks, her form will take off. She does need to settle better but the hope is that this bigger field/stronger pace, may help her with that. As could the return of Rab Havlin, who no doubt has ridden her plenty at home and also won on her first time up. Trainer/jockey are 8/18,11p in the last 14 days, +17.

Being drawn low hasn’t been a hindrance on the straight track this week, seemingly better than being high, for all I know full well what happens now!

I thought she looked a lively outsider here and I’ll have an EW nibble to find out.

As always, GL with any bets.

There will be a ‘tipping competition’ for Saturday, I’ll get that post/the rules/the prizes up ASAP,

Josh

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One Response

  1. todays video replay shortlist
    ASCOT
    2-30 ibiza love – cathy come home – believing – mawj – queen olly – powerdress
    3-05 boonie – perfect power – ehraz – slipstream twighlight jet
    3-40 ever present – mashoor – trawlerman – moktasaab – stay well – contact – cemhaam – candleford
    4-20 cachet – inspiral – prosperous voyahe – pizza bianca
    5-35 changingoftheguard – ottoman fleet – savy victory

    from the above
    ALBANY STAKES
    MAWJ 2/1
    IBIZA LOVE 28/1 ew (4 places 365)
    mawj looked impressive on her first outing should improve from that run, looked a bit unbalanced in the race. draw could be better but came off pace well so shouldn’t be to much trouble
    ibiza love has looked to progress well and showed a nice spurt of speed last time out to put the race to bed. big step up in class and price may reflect the draw slightly but will definitely stay the trip out.

    COMMONWEALTH CUP
    PERFECT POWER 4/1
    SLIPSTREAM 14/1 e/w (5 places 365)
    TWILIGHT JET 8/1
    perfect power no disgrace in the guineas but a mile is to far seems to be more effective at 6f. top form at that distance.
    slipstream the American raider looked impressive last time out even after fluffing the start 5 lengths adrift. went last to first quickly and looks to be improving. big chance of making the frame on that performance.
    twilight jet top 3yr old Irish sprinter looks to be improving has a big shout today

    DUKE OF EDINBURGH STAKES
    EVER PRESENT 20/1 ew (6 places 365)
    CANDLEFORD 7/1
    ever present been off track a while and has a big weight to carry but if he comes today in the form of last season he has a major chance.
    candleford beat coltrane well who won the ascot stakes on wednesday solid form.

    CORONATION STAKES
    PROSPEROUS VOYAGE 9/1 ew
    PIZZA BIANCA 16/1 ew
    prosperous voyage has been unlucky enough to come up against inspiral twice and cachet. better off at the weights with cachet for a narrow defeat and the hope that the lack of a recent run for inspiral might take the edge off.
    pizza bianca i think is a live speedy outsider that’s capable of causing an upset today if any off the above are having an off day

    SANDRINGHAM STAKES
    LOVE INTEREST 20/1 ew (7 places 365)
    this one is straight out of my tracker looks to be improving and came from quite a way to finish 3rd last rime out at York in a listed race. with seven places on offer and a clear run the first seven isn’t unthinkable

    KING EDWARD VII STAKES
    CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD 15/8
    has the best form stays the trip and is a much easier task today than the derby was.

    as always good luck today

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