[Free Post] Royal Ascot Day 3 (complete)

trainers/jockeys, big race trends…

Trainer / Jockey Qualifiers

Trainers, Jockeys and ‘Handicap’ pointers…

2.30 – Redemption Time

4.20 – Stradivarius (JG, FD)

5.00 – Atrium (CF)

5.00 – Bolthole (JS)

5.35 – Reach For The Moon (JG/ FD)

6.10 – Chiefofchiefs (CF)

6.10 – Ejtilaab (CF)

Trainer/Jockey Combos

5.00 -Waness

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Handicaps Preview

Stats, Trends & Trainers

3.05

14/244, 56p

12/12 with a win, had won at C4 level of higher (had not: 0/82, 10p)

13/14 Top 3 on last start (were not: 1/79, 9p)

12/14 were 2-10lb higher than last race (12/109, 35p) (were not: 2/135, 21p)

12/12 with a win had won at least once last 2 starts (did not: 0/66, 8p)

12/14 had 2-3 runs this season (did not: 2/85, 17p)

12/14 placed on last start (did not: 2/91, 11p)

11/14 won by trainers with just one runner in race (2+ : 3/106, 23p) (Aidan O’B, Mark Johnston x2, the winners)

Other

  • Horse ran in a Maiden LTO: 0/27, 7p

Trainers

  • M Johnston: 2/43, 6p
  • x1: A King, AOB, O Burrows, R Fahey, C Appleby, R Charlton, T Dascombe, J Given, Saeed Bin Suroor, R Beckett, SMS, M Channon.

Applying the trends…

The trends only so helpful here but those with a win at C4+, had won at least once last two and top 3 LTO points to 12/14 (12/98, 36p) and IF upholding would point to seven…

Secret State, Israr, Mandobi, Yashin, Savvy Knight, Flying Dolphin, Achnamara

Of those 2-10lb higher than last race and 2 or 3 runs this season… 10/14…

Israr, Yashin, Savvy Knight

Trainers (to have won race/with runners)

  • Secret State
  • Newfoundland
  • Balhambar
  • Achnamara

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5.00

14/394, 56p

14/14 sent off 28/1 or shorter (bigger: 0/168, 13p)

14/14 had 0-3 runs in prev 90 days (4+ : 0/51, 3p)

14/14 had placed at least once last three starts (had not: 0/38, 3p)

13/14 had won at least once last three starts (did not: 1/120, 12p)

13/14 had yet to run beyond 8.5f in career (had run over 9f+ : 1/78, 10p)

13/14 had won over at least 7f (had not: 1/49, 2p)

13/14 had never run at Ascot (had: 1/79, 7p)

13/14 ran in a handicap or novice LTO (did not: 1/106, 10p)

Other

  • 3 & 5lb claimers: 0/32, 0p
  • 14/14 trainer had 1-2 runners in race only (3+ : 0/71, 11p)
  • Horse ran over 10f + LTO: 0/41, 7p
  • Horse ran in Listed race LTO: 0/37, 4p

Trainers

  • x1: R Beckett, S Crisford, R Varian, E Dunlop, R Charlton, A Balding, J Osborne, A O’Brien, M Tregoning, H Morrison, D Simcock, W Haggas.

Applying the trends…

It’s a ‘so so’ trends list and not overly helpful. Applying all those above, ignoring odds, leaves 12/14 and IF upholding, would point to twelve…

King of Time, Whoputfiftyinyou, Tranquil Night, Yonafis, Amortentia, Jimi Hendrix, Kitsune Power, Fiach Mchugh, Lawful Command, Barley, My Little Tip, Blenheim Boy

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Trainers (to have won race/with runners)

  • Yonafis
  • Thesis
  • Jimi Hendrix
  • Koy Koy, Harrow
  • Kitsune Power, Claim The Crown
  • Ribhi

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6.10

9/237, 36p

9/9 were running at same class or up 1 class from last start (did not: 0/36 2p)

9/9 OR between 1lb lower and 4lb higher than last start (was not: 0/85, 8p)

9/9 running at same distance or down in distance from last start (Up in trip: 0/50, 7p)

9/9 had 2-5 career wins (did not: 0/66, 8p)

9/9 had 2+ places (inc wins) in handicaps (0-1: 0/40, 5p)

9/9 did not win last start (had: 0/41, 5p)

9/9 ran in a handicap last start (non-handicap: 0/32, 2p)

9/9 ran in a race for 4YO+ or 3YO last start (3YO+ : 0/61, 5p)

8/9 had yet to run above listed level (had: 1/90, 10p)

8/9 had not won this season (1+ : 1/72, 11p)

Other

  • horse ran in C1 last start: 0/20, 0p

Trainers

  • x1: B Meehan, D O’Meara, JJ Quinn, R Varian, R Hannon, J Osborne, K Ryan

Applying the trends…

A strict interpretation of the 9/9 stats would leave 9/9 (9/60, 16p) and IF upholding, would point to four runners…

River Nymph, Dance Fever, Fastnet Crown, Ouzo

Trainers (to have won race/with runners)

  • Ouzo
  • Rhoscolyn
  • Mums Tipple

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DAY 3 PREVIEW

3.05 – Mandobi 14/1 & Yashin 14/1

5.00 – Amortentia 9/1-11/1 & Bolthole 22/1

6.10 – Ouzo – 22/1-25/1

A 0.6 point loss on my Royal Hunt Cup pokes yesterday, thankfully Jamie S scrambling home in 7th/riding out, to limit the damage, -£3 for my x3 £5 EW bets. My own betting ledger around +0.7 points, or +£3.5 to £5EW bets for the week so far. We shall see how long I can cling onto a profit. While I can bemoan low grade small fields through the week, I don’t think I could stare at these 25+ runner flat handicaps every day. Tough. Still, they’re a challenge and that’s half the fun. So, onto today…

The draw is a conundrum. Pace affects these races plenty, especially on the straight course, but yesterday it did appear that the nearside (high numbers) were at a disadvantage, and on the going stick the nearside is riding a bit slower. Up the middle, or maybe low, appeared to be the place to be but in previous years whenever I’ve thought there a draw bias, it’s flipped on its head the next day. I certainly paid for having nothing middle/low in the Hunt Cup. Anyway…

3.05 –

An easy 3YO only handicap to kick things off! As always I’ve used my trends/stats as a guide and I’ve watched the last run of every horse in this race/the finish and in part I’m trusting my eyes…

Mandobi – he hasn’t done much wrong the last twice and was impressive at Thirsk. I don’t know what he’s been beating but he’s got a great attitude and travels well through his races. High draws have done best over this distance around here, so no worries there. He does like to go forward so may be able to get out and across, tracking something. I thought a change he could step forward for a proper gallop to sit off and he shapes as if he may relish this stiffer 8f. Whether he’s good enough or has enough in hand, we shall soon find out, but I’ll trust in the inform William Haggas and young Tom wouldn’t mind a winner, 1-0 to Hollie so far. There’s clearly more to come from this one but you can say that about most in here!

Yashin – I’ve been really taken with his last two runs, esp LTO. It was visually very impressive, cutting through them like a knife through butter, everything rowing away while his jockey motionless really. He made a monster move in the middle of the race, may have hit the front too soon but had stacks in hand I think and he could well improve a bundle again for moving back up in distance. He’s a likeable type who could be hardier than a few in here. Whether being whacked 10lb will stop him, I don’t know. His low draw may not be ideal either as he could get stuck behind horses, but that’s racing and not a reason to be put off at 14s.

Post Impressionist is obvious enough given his Newcastle form behind yesterday’s Queen’s Vase winner but I have to oppose horses at 7/2 in Royal Ascot handicaps and when the odd one wins, so be it.

Newfoundland was visually impressive LTO for all I don’t know what he beat and he still looks a bit green, but more to come from him. Savvy Knight hasn’t done much wrong either but it was hard to get a grip on his small field form, but he’s 3/3 and trainer in form. He’ll be winning more races. Obviously I may not have mentioned the winner!

5.00 –

Amortentia – well who knows where you’ll need to be drawn here but this one is up the middle/may go far side. They could well split into two groups unless high want to get to the middle if possible. In any case, trainer/jockey will be flying after yesterday’s big win and again I was visually impressed with his win last time, doing it very easily to my eyes and again, a bit like Yashin, cutting through them and putting his race to bed with the minimum of fuss. It was his first run of the season and there has to be bundles more to come from him. I suppose proper fast ground is an unknown. He looks a likeable type and i’ll be disappointed if he doesn’t run a big race here. Some of his 2YO form reads well.

Bolthole – maybe more a hopeful punt, Spencer on the straight 8f here, he will win again over this CD at a big price before he calls it quits, and maybe it’s with this lad. The draw may well do for him, I don’t know, but he travelled powerfully last time and showed a fair amount of pace over 10f, moving well through the middle part. Buick jumped off and said 10f is the wrong trip, get him back down to 8f, and this was the plan the next day. That extra stamina may be no bad thing here but hopefully Spencer can race him a bit handier. In any case, I suspect he’ll be flying late and we’ll see how close that takes him – he could well win his side, as he did with Bless Him, but be a fair way behind middle/low. Or not.

As always, this race generally looks impossible and more so than some of the others. King Of Time was impressive last time, as was Wanees (if not a little keen) , both those could go well, but again, esp with the former, will the draw help or hinder.

6.10 –

Another easy handicap in which to finish and I thought I’d go with just the one here, who again may or may not be drawn in the right place, high. I did use my trends as some sort of guide. LTO he made debut for Jamie Osborne, the horse bought with Ascot races in mind, and given his form here for Hannon, you can see why. A decent 4th in last year’s Royal Hunt Cup, having been stuck in a pocket for an age. For all they all bumped into one there but he could have been closer his side. That was off 2lb higher and he moved there like he’s got more wins in him from this sort of mark. He made a pleasing seasonal debut at Sandown, front two miles clear. They had wanted to run in the Hunt Cup again but he missed the cut, so now they’re here, over 7f. Whether he lacks the pace for this trip, we shall see. I did think it interesting that on paper there is no real pace, and with a drop in trip plus 1st time CP, i wonder if Saffie may be more aggressive on him – that’s if he’s got the pace. He does appear to relish these big fields and I’m hoping he runs a big race and at worst can sneak into the top 6/7. If he’s able to lay up and isn’t inconvenienced by the draw, we could have some fun watching him.

I could mention 10 horses here and not get close. Maybe Montassib is a machine but inexperienced for a test like this. Vafortino is solid. I’ll mention one more…

Fastnet Crown hits my trends for this also and they remove all headgear here for the first time in a while. That ‘could’ have a positive impact, or it could not. Of more concern was that he’s usually held up and the lack of pace on paper would be a concern, unless they’re more aggressive. He has some fine big field form to his name, for all it suggests this mark may be tough enough. He could run into the places.

Fingers crossed the odd place there and maybe a winner.

GL as always, and if you fancy anything, do share down below,

Josh

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One Response

  1. todays video replay shortlist
    ASCOT
    2-30 bakeel – crispy cat – the antartic – walbank
    3-05 mandobi – newfoundland – secret state – vina star
    3-40 life of dreams – magical lagoon
    4-20 stradivarius – alignak – kyprios – bubble smart
    5-35 reach for the moon – kingmax – maksud

    from above
    CRISPY CAT 12/1 ew beaten by blackbeard (4th in the coventry) and maria branwell (3rd in the coral national stakes) which represents good form. a case can be made with most of them in this race. so i’m going for the value bet in this one.

    MANDOBI 14/1 ew 6 PLACES (365)
    NEWFOUNDLAND 15/2 EW 6 PLACES (365)
    mandobi stepping up in class today but looked good winning last time out from the front. with 6 places on offer looks solid to at least make the frame
    newfoundland holds Irish derby and Irish st ledger entries. had to switch twice to win coming off the pace last time out to win easily.
    will be very surprised if this didn’t make the frame today.

    MAGICAL LAGOON 15/8 beaten a short head by concert hall who has had two good runs in the Irish 1000 and oaks. first time trying at this trip but looks bred to stay

    STRADIVARIUS 9/4 going with the old boy today. with trueshan unlikely to go today and kyprios disappointing on previous visits to the uk leaves the door open for the old boy. a few biggies could make the frame today alignak, bubble smart, might be worth a bit of change each way also.

    MAKSUD 8/1 unexposed 3yr old who was victim of a slow pace last time out but has progressed on each start. reach for the moon on paper should win with its for but there are a few question marks that makes me think its worth taking on today. so reach for the moon will probably win by a mile today.

    that’s all from me today as always good luck………

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