In this post I’ve homed in on three trainers who’ve historically done well at this time of year, suggesting a deliberate pattern of behaviour that may be repeated. Whether or not they do so again, time will tell. Below you can find the three trainers, the micro angle ‘rules’ and the historical results. All three have had losing years, and may do so again. Their winners have more more than made up for it but with any luck they have a positive December 2021. You can use as a ‘way in’, or in any way you please. It may be wise to keep an eye on the ‘trainer form’ as the month progresses. As I write all three are ticking along fine, two of them going particularly well.
Let’s crack on…
- December & January
- Tracks: Doncaster, Kempton, Newbury
- NOT Chases
- Any odds (10/1 or shorter SP ‘best’)
Those sent off bigger than 10/1 starting price: 2/34, 5p, +13 BFSP
Given the results above I suppose some caution, given 2 of the last 3 years have been losing ones, for all the good years have more than made up for it. From memory Nicky wasn’t happy with his string around this time last year/into early 2021. Looking at it they had a poor January 2021, as December 2020 was +22.11. December has been the stronger month (37% SR and 46% race SR) but worth following into Jan also. They appear to be firing on all cylinders at the moment, 7/31, 11p in the last 14 days, 58% rivals beaten.
Do note the race win % (40) and the the profit to ‘P/L (BF)’ (BFSP) and the ‘P/L (Plc)’ profit, which is 1 point win in the betfair exchange place market. Those points applicable to the two that follow also.
- ALL race types
- Male horses only
- Horse runs in previous 90 days: 0 or 1
- Any odds
The odd monster has flown in over time with this angle, those sent off 18/1 + : 3/30, 8p, +180 BFSP
Those sent off 9/1 or shorter SP have a 32% win SR, +63 SP, +101 BFSP.
Again, Philip’s had a couple of losing years and we wouldn’t want a repeat of those, but it’s possible. They appear to be ticking along well enough at the moment. Whereas Nicky’s angle focusses on courses he targets with his hurdlers/NHF runners, this one looks at horses who are fresh enough. Philip is more than adept at readying them at home and clearly waits until December for many to make seasonal return, or to build on a more recent comeback run. They tend to perform on their first two starts after a break, certainly around this time of year. Well, they’re more predictable anyway, or have been. His overall record with fillies/mares isn’t that great and nor is it when looking within the angle above, so I’ll ignore those for now.
Hopefully we have a repeat of last year.
- NOT Maiden Hurdles, Novice Hurdles, Handicap Novice Hurdles
- Horse had 1-6 runs in national hunt race type (NHF, Hurdles, Chases)
- Horse had 0-3 career wins
- Any odds
DO NOTE: as with all angles I research, any form/profile achieved outside of the UK/Ireland is ignored. So, the angle above won’t take account of any French form for example. There will be qualifiers, especially for Venetia no doubt, who have 0-3 career wins in the UK/Ireland, but may well have more in France. Those horses still qualify for the purpose of this angle, the research having been conducted based on their runs in UK/Ireland. HorseRaceBase doesn’t include non UK/Irish form.
Venetia’s had winners up to 16/1 SP in the period, with only x5 runners sent off bigger within the rules above, one placing. The yard appears to be red hot at the moment, 5/11, 8p in the last 14 days as I type (1st December). Worth keeping an eye on but they couldn’t be going any better, which with any luck is a good sign for this angle.
Venetia doesn’t tend to do well in maiden hurdles or with her novices, very much used for educational purposes, for all the odd winner. It’s generally best to focus on the more lightly raced ones and those who haven’t shown their full hand as yet. The last three Decembers have been strong and with any luck will build on another profitable ‘November’ angle, which come rain or shine, has ticked along on here for 4/5 years.
All three of the angles above are ‘new’. Fingers crossed 2 or all 3 have a profitable time and can return next year.
As always the proof will be in the eating, but as a worst case another quick fire daily ‘shortlist’ of potential bets in which to scrutinise further, with your preferred method of analysis.
All qualifiers will be posted in the Members’ Daily Posts. The stats qualifiers go up the afternoon before the next day’s racing, giving you plenty of time to have a flick through if you so wish. Sunday’s post can go up first thing in the morning, as can Monday’s offering.
Best of luck,
p.s don’t forget, you can take what is in effect a 60 Day Trial of my Members’ Club below, just click the banner to find out more…