Venetia Time Again? November stats angle…

How to profit from Venetia Williams in November

It’s that time of year, when you can usually count on Venetia Williams to bang in a few winners. November is her month, especially with her chasers, and my angle for the yard at this time of year has been similar for a few years now.

It’s fairly straightforward…

Venetia Williams

  • November
  • Horse Aged 8 or younger
  • Beginners Chase, Handicap Chase, Handicap Novice Chase
  • Horse Runs Previous 90 Days: NOT 1
  • 20/1 or shorter SP (bigger: 0/13,1p)

BetsWinsWin%P/L(SP)PlacesPlace%P/L(BF)P/L(Plc)BF A/E
ALL1795128.49193.138849.16255.1478.111.96
202015533.3310.2596011.687.151.71
201917423.538952.9410.386.321.51
2018822522337.535.196.032.63
201713215.381.5323.082.04-4.541.19
20161232514.565021.96.421.75
20152094537.5105041.3612.432.75
201421942.8644.251152.3853.328.793
201317741.1839.131058.8248.6911.792.59
201217317.655.51164.7111.4513.111.19
2011845010562.511.425.733.74
201010110722013.541.410.81
200912216.672.5433.333.17-1.721.41
2008900-9555.56-95.20

*

There’s plenty of logic behind this angle, and some logic is always important as it gives you reasons to believe said approach may be repeated in the real world/live play.

Looking through the stats it’s clear this is a month that Venetia targets, waiting for some softer ground and usually getting them match fit at home, taking advantage of any chinks in the fitness of the opposition. Venetia’s would usually improve for a going chasing, often leaving behind their handicap marks which are based on hurdles form. Many improve bundles for a summer at grass or having had time to fully acclimatise, given her liking for French recruits.

The age ‘rule’ is focussed on the younger legs, those that could have ‘more to come’. She does have winners aged 9+ at this time of year, you just have to pick them more carefully and the overall profit stats depending on the odd decent priced winner. Those aged 9+ in the period… 9/66, 23p, +23 BFSP. But only 2/34 since the start of 2015. It generally pays to focus on the younger legs.

The ‘not’ 1 run only in the last 90 days can take some explaining. Those with 1 run only in the previous 90 days: 13/96, 35p, -34 SP

Venetia’s are generally ready to roll on their seasonal reappearance/1st start for at least 90 days. They generally don’t tend to come on for the run or improve for it and it can pay to ignore them on their 2nd start within 90 days, at least systematically. Many can ‘bounce’ also I think, their return race taking plenty out of them and failing to follow up. It can be they need another break.

There are a small handful of qualifiers who have had 2 or 3 starts in the previous 90 days… 7/14,10p +18 BFSP with those, only six such runners since 2014. Most of these will have got going in October, some have so much in hand, with races not taking much out of them, that they can back up and keep winning and so on. 92% of the qualifiers are having their first start in at least 90 days.

Do note the ‘P/L (Plc)’ column also, second from the right – that denotes profit in the betfair SP place market, which could be worth noting.

Venetia will have a dud November one of these years, but the logic/approach has stood the test of time on here for a few yeas now and for now they are worth backing ‘systematically’ I think. We can live in hope for a repeat of the ‘glory’ years of 2013-15 but recent years haven’t been too shoddy either.

Fingers crossed,

Josh

p.s daily qualifiers will be posted within my Members Daily Posts. You can find out more about my members’ club by clicking the banner below…

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