Free Post: Four Jumps Trainers to Follow in September & October

Four jumps trainers to follow this autumn…

‘Autumn’ Trainers to Follow

In this post I look at four trainers who’ve historically done well in September & October, especially when compared to other times of year.

There is plenty of rationale for why certain trainers would target September & October, getting their strings firing early on. An element of their thinking may well be linked with the types of horses they train and wanting to avoid deep winter ground. Some may also conclude this time of year is less competitive – summer jumpers coming to the end of their season and plenty of winter horses in opposition needing the run, with the bigger yards/better horses not being fully tuned up until November time.

Some trainers are better at this than others and prefer their horses to be ‘hard fit’, especially on first run back. From my research of the four trainers below this looks like a time of year they’ve targeted previously, as you can see from the results below. Of course historical success is no guarantee of future success, however through the research of logic. Some caution is always advised.

Trainers can change habits, owners can come and go (with associated fluctuations in quality of stock), they may fail to sufficiently replenish stocks with quality, have a bad ‘buying’ year or two at the sales, suffer from illness, lose key staff members, or just be behind in their training regimes for some reason. And that’s just to name a few reasons for poor performance/quiet periods (having a lot of older, poorly handicapped horses never helps either).

As always it can pay to keep an eye on recent trainer form in conjunction with any ‘qualifiers’ the angles below fire out.

Daily qualifiers will be posted within my Members Daily Posts but they should be easy enough to find using standard, freely available, race cards. Or if you have system building software you can add/save them to those.

Let’s crack on and have a look at the trainers, rules, stats and their results

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Nigel Twiston-Davies

Micro 1

  • September & October
  • Handicap Chase, Handicap Novice Chase
  • Horse had 1+ run in previous 90 days
  • Any odds (10/1< SP best, 1/14,2p bigger)
BetsWinsWin%P/L(SP)PlacesPlace%ROI(SP)P/L(BF)P/L(Plc)BF A/E
ALL100282864.87444464.8791.2615.341.58
20201300-13215.38-100-13-7.860
201916531.256.75956.2542.1910.264.881.82
20188337.52.66337.533.252.99-1.752.03
20179333.339.25444.44102.7814.394.011.64
20161265013.63866.67113.5814.554.272.04
201511436.3613.33436.36121.1814.99-2.232.45
20149333.3322.5555.5625029.358.583.03
201322418.189.75940.9144.3217.735.441.17

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Micro 2

  • September & October
  • All non-handicaps
  • Class 4, 5 & 6
  • Horse had 0 career wins
  • 20/1 or shorter SP (0/16,1p bigger)
BetsWinsWin%P/L(SP)PlacesPlace%ROI(SP)P/L(BF)P/L(Plc)BF A/E
ALL1182823.7379.216050.8567.13119.3424.471.58
20201417.14-7.5535.71-53.57-5.88-0.270.51
201919631.5822.751263.16119.7436.2110.861.92
201812325565041.676.18-2.181.46
20171642513.13956.2582.0618.614.521.85
201619631.5816.581263.1687.2620.593.661.57
201517423.5323847.06135.2933.155.962.04
20148112.5-1112.5-12.5-0.58-1.331
201313323.087.25753.8555.7711.063.231.89

Notes

‘Twister Season’ (a term that friend of the blog, Ben Aitken, coined from memory) has long been an established part of the September/October jumps scene. However, last season was a wipe out really and more generally for the yard. They appeared to be below par for most of the season, including the time of year they usually thrive – as you can see above. Time will tell whether that was a one-off or not. I suspect they may have had illness issues and/or the early end of the previous season due to Covid, with winter horses going for their summer holidays two months earlier than normal, messed up the early season routine – maybe the horses took more getting fit, having got fatter, who knows!

In any case there will be a reason for their drop off and we can hope that 2021 returns to their normal. We can hope for a repeat of 2019. If 2021 is poor, it may be indicative of deeper problems again. All the evidence suggests Twister tries to ready horses specifically for this time of year. As I type on the 26th August he’s 2/10, 4p in the last 14 days so fingers crossed a hot spell is on its way.  

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Keith Dalgleish

  • September & October
  • Handicap Chase + Handicap Hurdle (standard, not Novice), NHF
  • Any odds (6/1< best, 13/2+, 1/18, 4p, +8)
BetsWinsWin%P/L(SP)PlacesPlace%ROI(SP)P/L(BF)P/L(Plc)BF A/E
ALL702738.5752.413955.7174.8768.917.231.79
202023626.0921.51043.4893.4831.918.251.94
201918844.449.751161.1154.1711.436.121.61
201811436.362.66654.5524.184.03-0.921.51
20178562.510.75787.5134.3812.593.921.88
2016111001.7511001751.940.612.94
2015100-11100-100-10.140
20147228.573228.5742.863.58-1.832.63
201311100411004004.410.955.56

Notes

Not much to say here really, a fairly straight forward approach with three race types Keith targets at this time of year. It looks to have been a clear strategy since 2017 , combined no doubt with an influx of national hunt horses, many of whom he readies for Sept/Oct. This certainly looks to be the case when comparing to other months/times of year. Fingers crossed for a repeat of recent years.

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Charlie Longsdon

  • September & October
  • Handicap Chase (exc novice handicaps)
  • Class 1,2,3,4
  • Age 6,7,8
  • Any odds
BetsWinsWin%P/L(SP)PlacesPlace%ROI(SP)P/L(BF)P/L(Plc)BF A/E
ALL732230.1460.383547.9582.7171.8914.321.69
2020400-400-100-4-40
20197228.5711342.86157.1410.482.012.13
20189222.228.5444.4494.448.830.461.18
201715533.3322853.33146.6727.285.392.53
201613430.779.5861.5473.0813.549.161.65
20157457.1413.25571.43189.2914.614.833.2
201482250.75337.59.381.22-1.351.16
201310330-0.62440-6.2-0.07-2.171.19

Notes

Again, not much to add here, a straightforward angle for Charlie’s handicap chasers at this time of year. Again it suggests this is the time to catch them – June-October appears to be ‘peak season’ for consistency/winners and that may well be linked to the type of chaser he has, especially when it comes to ground preference. Last year was his first blank since 2013 so some questions heading into the next few weeks.

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Dr Richard Newland

  • September & October
  • All races
  • Today’s jockey had 0-1 win on horse
  • 12/1 or shorter SP (0/20, 3p bigger)
BetsWinsWin%P/L(SP)PlacesPlace%ROI(SP)P/L(BF)P/L(Plc)BF A/E
ALL2046230.3963.4710752.4531.1199.9417.631.29
202048122517.552347.9236.5632.7811.961.34
2019261142.3118.841765.3872.4625.45.521.36
2018231043.4814.941565.2264.9617.973.411.49
201728517.86-11.51553.57-41.07-10.71-0.210.77
201622418.180.75627.273.413.57-8.791.11
201517529.419.12952.9453.6512.073.331.41
201421942.869.761152.3846.4811.170.351.56
201319631.584.011157.8921.117.712.061.24

Notes

Targeting September/October does look like a deliberate strategy from the ever shrewd Dr Newland, who places his horses better than most. The market can guide. With the 0-1 win jockey ‘rule’ I think we’re looking at unexposed horses, Newland may think the horse requires a change of jocke, and he does use claiming jockeys to good effect.

2020 saw a jump in numbers and it will be interesting if it’s the same this Sept/Oct. He has been expanding and we can hope a return to 2019/18 in terms of SR, for all that last year’s profit to Betfair SP wasn’t to be sniffed at. All four trainers have done well in the Betfair place market also (second column from the right, P/L (Plc) )

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That’s all for this post. If you’ve any questions or thoughts do fire away down below and I’ll do my best to respond.

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Cheers,

Josh

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