July Festival 2021: Trainer Stats

10 responses

1. Re the Charlie Appleby micro – why would only having one runner in a race matter ? is this just how the micro back fills? I can never quite get my head around the one runner only angle that comes up at various times on a number of sites.

   The MJ angle looks good. One to back blind as we say. Do MJ horse get backed? I have it in my mind that they do not generally?

   What about Northern trainers in handicaps ? Nothing I guess?

   Thanks for your efforts re these angles.

   Martin

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   1. I don’t back fill Martin!! Not intentionally anyway. 🙂 That’s as offensive as you can get with system research/chat haha.

      Surely that logic is fairly clear? If trying to ponder what the trainer may be thinking/how they work. 1 runner only, esp at festival say, suggests they’ve really thought about which one in their string is best to aim at the race/will suit race conditions best? Running 2 or more horses may suggest ‘throwing mud and hoping some of it sticks’ ? On flip side some trainers are more adept at throwing numerous runners but Charlie has never really been like that and with him I think when only firing one bullet is a positive, well it certainly is a big one for this meeting to date anyway. There’s plenty of logical sense there in my head anyway.

      The Betfair Actual vs Expected would suggest plenty of juice in the MJ angle and yep generally market is letting them go off much bigger than they should be – in part nature of the beast, plenty probably bounce back from duff runs, and/or look like they’ve had a tough time of it but are actually as hard as nails.

      Josh

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2. You may indeed be correct re the one runner in a race angle? I need to think that one through more and my brain needs more convincing. But with any micro the proof of the pudding is in the eating I guess. I will watch this one with interest.

   I did read an article about research that looked at the subconsciousness of the brain towards confirmation bias. So I may be fighting against that? What are his figures with two runners in a race in comparison?

   MJ is in my mind a trainer to back when they run ‘down south’ at decent odds in quality races. I do not have figures to back that up though.

   Good luck Martin

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   1. Well I think i’m correct re that logic, makes perfect sense to me but you’re free to disagree! 🙂

      I’m not sure what you’re missing? Here we have a big yard packed with quality horses – he probably has 2/3/4 he could run/target at many festival races, yet takes the time to fire just one dart, just one horse who he thinks is suitable for the race etc, rather than pondering, not really being sure who may be best, throwing 2/3 darts and hoping one of them lands. A big yard having one runner to me may suggest it’s a more considered placement of the horse – well, the stats/how my brain thinks, appear to lean that way for Charlie anyway.

      You really should get some system building software Martin, horseracebase or something and then you can interrogate yourself. His stats for 2+ at the meeting are not great, for all odd one wins, and his 1 runner in a race stats for all races/runners do much better win and place% wise than when running 2+ .

      Josh

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      1. Hi Josh – Appleby angle makes sense to me! The one I can’t get my head around is Hannon – trainer can’t influence the draw (or the numbers of other runners). Interested to know your logic there?

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         1. Hi Henry –

            Yep that one is a bit looser logically – the stats were such, over the period anyway, that there was something about those middle draws –

            There’s the starting/foundation point, that this is a meeting that Hannon clearly targets to some degree with certain horses, certain races.

            From then on yep that angle/logic is then nothing to do with the trainer – in my head I wondered if due to the types of races he targets, and indeed the usual number of runners etc in said races, whether being on the ‘wings’ was usually a disadvantage, as the position of the stalls would have been the same over recent years on certain days, sometimes nearside, sometimes far etc

            It could be all of that is nonsense of course! But I thought just enough there to bother posting it, as those draw outside of said ‘middle’ stalls were 4/70 odd at the time

            Josh

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3. Hi Josh and Martin

   ref Mark Johnson always been a fan of his along with his evergreen jockey Joe Fanning, always look at his handicap runners at Goodwood and even if Joe is on the outsider of three Johnson runners it often been Joe’s which runs the best race and no doubt could be the same for other major handicaps at grade 1 and 2 courses, worth a look on the machine!! Ha ha
   All the best
   Colin

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   1. Ah Colin! Great to hear from you. Hope all is well.
      I’ll add it to the list!! But yep MJ at Goodwood, esp Glorious, always worth a close inspection and yep often with that yard no point in spending much time deliberating what is an apparent ‘1st string’.
      Josh

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4. Don’t know if you received my email yesterday (Friday 9) but in any case I wanted to thank you for the info I gleaned from this site on Thursday.

   I managed to find Lusail, Sir Ron Priestley, and Path of Thunder because of your free stats. I added another horse to those (Bellport at Epsom) and ended up winning nearly £900! I only staked 50p each way at that! Thank you again!

   Reply

   1. Thanks Jonathan, I’ve eventually got round to replying to your email, much appreciated. And a superb use of the info etc, well done.
      Josh

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