[Video] Finding Future Winners: Analysing Hot-Form

Hot form…

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A look at ‘hot form’, the idea, and a few ‘live’ examples from The Flat, with a few horses & races to note for the future.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

8 Responses

  1. Thanks Josh, I found this really useful, and it comes at a good time as my bank has hit rock bottom after a dismal Epsom and various unsuccessful attempts to use my new Geegeez Gold subscription to find some winners! I like the idea of looking at hot form races, how can I best do this on Geegeez Gold? Thanks Josh – always learning in this game!

    1. Thanks James…
      Geegeez – well Matt has on his to-do list a search function such as the one in HorseRacebase I use in the video.

      However, there’s loads of hot-form tools in Geegeez, just not yet the ability to search as above. You’ve got the ‘then what’ features in the race cards, and you could find ‘hot’ races that way, open them up and track whatever horses.

      There is also the ‘hot form’ report the reports tab, looking at horses today and tomorrow – but from there you can play around with the hot form races, open them up and again find horses to track etc.

      I think Epsom was tough for most – I mean 160 odd separate horse’s picked in Saturday’s tipping comp in Members’ club as you’ll have seen, only x4 winners between the lot!

      I really do think some race focus/specialisation would help, at least as a foundation – whatever code, or on the flat, 4yo+ handicaps, scratch 3YO only, and any handicaps with say 3 or more 3YOs running in them. You may then pick a distance range, class range. Make sure you’re using pace, and hot form etc, and anything else, is the horse open to improvement and/or well handicapped, and if can’t answer that in affirmative, move on etc. C1s are meant to be hard, esp on the flat – most of them are open to plenty of improvement and many smaller fields/tactical etc. Nightmare.

      There is simply too much racing, and unless you cut down and have some focus, no amount of tools etc will help I don’t think. You need some method – even if it’s not race focus, but within geegeez having a routine – whether it’s flicking through the pace maps, a report or two, instant expert for 4YO+ flat handicaps, (remember instant expert looks at what horses are proven in conditions/what they’ve done – that’s useful, but not in races where horses are open to stacks of improvement and have yet to show their best, and may improve for conditons, such as 3YO only handicaps etc)

      Josh

      1. Thanks Paul, just seen this, value your thoughts, I love the flat sprints, so thinking of 5F,6F and 7F because that does seem to be a specialist distance – Epsom was a disaster for me because of the ground change, the horses I like have always tended to like good ground or better, NH and flat. I will keep track of my bets on Geegeez Gold and when I think I’ve got it right I’ll trial on here like Ian

  2. Thanks for quick reply Josh, yes I think I am guilty of a scattergun approach and more discipline and focus will help. I will aim for this with my new bank, high praise for Ian who is doing something similar in public putting up his two tips a day in June. I hope he is successful, may be a way of providing discipline I’ll try as well when I have a focus that works for me. All the best!

  3. Hi James, have you kept a log of what you backed at Epsom for example and why?
    It might flag up some rationale behind your bets. I have started doing so.
    The ground didn’t help Friday (I didn’t consider the rain at Epsom) and it had gone tacky Saturday.

    I need to watch this video myself, but Josh is right, there’s too much racing, and garbage racing,
    Its taken me over 40 years but I have started looking at 4yo+ handicaps over 8 runners, up to a mile, and the same with the jumps, handicaps over 8 runners from 2 miles to 2.5 miles.

    You tend to get stronger run races and less false pace.

    The exception is the classier races and meetings, for example, I’ll look at the non-handicaps next week at Royal Ascot if there are enhanced places.

    I don’t have Geegeez Gold myself (used to), very good site, Hot Form is a great tool but I wouldn’t follow it blindly. Great way to shortlist nags however.

    Paul

    1. Thanks Paul, just seen this, value your thoughts, I love the flat sprints, so thinking of 5F,6F and 7F because that does seem to be a specialist distance – Epsom was a disaster for me because of the ground change, the horses I like have always tended to like good ground or better, NH and flat. I will keep track of my bets on Geegeez Gold and when I think I’ve got it right I’ll trial on here like Ian

  4. Good video Josh and some great points. I may well invest at some stage into HorseRaceBase. perhaps after a profitable week at Royal Ascot.

    1. Thanks Paul.
      You don’t appear to be doing too badly with whatever tools you use at the moment!
      Your renewed focus as per previous comment above sounds good, and plenty to be said about that. At least means you can throw out a fair few races trainer away. Sometimes it’s hard to know where to look.
      In part that’s why I’ve gone baxk back the 2m7f+ and that will pay off in time. What with how I like to run everything else here/content, there’s only so much time. Spread yourself too thin and it’s hard to know where to look at times and mental fatigue never far off

      Hot form etc is only one part of the puzzle and yep you’d never follow blind etc, but an essential ingredient I think that can help make a positive difference.

      Josh

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