Members Daily Post: 03/05/18 (complete)

TIPS x1, Section 1 (comp) updates

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Musselburgh

5.40 – See Vermont (all hncps)ES+ I3 13/2 S3A 3rd

8.10 – Harbour Patrol (all hncps) w1 ES+ H3 13/2 S3A  UP

 

Redcar

NONE… a card of non handicaps (no 1st time out 2YO quals) and 3-Y-O only handicaps I believe, which I don’t touch in my general stats. 

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 22nd April 2018)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 22nd April 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 7/82,28p, +8.5)  (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +101.5)

 

NOTES

5.40 Muss – See Vermont – 1 point win 13/2 (gen)

That will be all for tips

It’s rare for me to back a 10 year old veteran on the flat but there is some method to my madness and if i’m ever going to back him this season, it has to be today I think. This horse was winning here last summer and arrives ‘hard fit’ after an AW campaign, a code/’surface’  that he’s never appeared totally in love with. He is better on the turf and he is better here. Over CD he is 3/10,6p in handicaps and that alone made him of interest. His winning is on good and faster. They are meant to get drizzle I think but with any luck the ground stays the same. Were the forecasts to be wrong and this goes on the softer side, it may be 1 point gone. So, he returns to turf which is a positive. Jason Hart rode this horse a couple of times in his younger days and when he was a 5lb claimer. I found it interesting that they reacquainted themselves LTO and that he is on again today, returning to his favourite venue. There is also a headgear switch, the CP replacing the blinkers, and that can do the trick with these older horses- he has won before after a switch. He is 2lb below his last winning turf mark and is 5/22,10p in the 51-60 range, 0/15,4p 61+. At his best here he races prominently and he has the Carr horse to track. Hopefully he can get out and hold a decent position from what may be lower than ideal (stands against the stand side rail on the straight course, higher can be better) but they do win from all stalls over this distance, in big fields, on decent ground. The trainer’s horses are going well also and the horse is 1/5,3p in handicaps in May. The final clincher was the fact that most of the field ‘could’ need the run, many of them making seasonal reappearance. I’m hoping his race fitness does the job against plenty of those. And there are not any fit, in form, ‘could be anything types’ in this , which are always a danger for the older horses. This looks like a decent opportunity to me and I was happy to have a dart at 13/2, a rare one on a thoroughly exposed handicapper.

‘Danger’ horse... I have had a small saver on Our Place In Loule who looks most interesting of the bigger priced horses. He ran well on seasonal reappearance last year and if a1 could play a part..he beat the selection here last summer, before being DQ and placed in 2nd for interference. He is on 4lb worse terms I think than from that encounter which is a positive for us. But he is open to further improvement again this year and has had a wind op. I was happy to take on the top two in the market. Midgley’s is a tricky bugger who is hard to win with. It may all fall in place today but he is a short price given his profile. Vallarta may be a worthy fav…but is short for one who has never won at the distance and last season always seemed to be doing his best work late on over 6-7f. On decent ground here i wondered whether he would have the pace for this, over 5f. IF he bounces out and leads (the only out and out front runner in this, and with a stonking GG speed figure) and is going his pace, he could well stay there. But he has a few questions for a 7/2 shot, although I wouldn’t fall off my seat if he bolted up- and nor would I if he was scrubbed along after 3f, his legs unable to go the pace as the race hots up.

I did look at Harbour Patrol given he is a LTO winner… there are many more fit and in form horses in this than the race above. He is effectively on a 10lb higher mark than for that last win…he is 3/9,6p with an OR 41-50 (one for the tracker..may have to wait a while though, missed him LTO) and 0/20,2p, OR 51+. He is 53 here even with the claim. On that basis I can live with him winning at 13/2.

(NOTE..i have just read SP2A’s email, for those of you on their service also- there are a few of you from here :)… i always read their email after I have done any ‘tipping’, quite deliberately, solving the puzzle is my drive and I don’t like being influenced by others…but they appear to agree on my assessment of the 5.40, so fingers crossed!)

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Quick re-cap.. i won’t dwell on the winner but i’d take +6 every day and i’m pleased that the stats in Section 1 continue to highlight winners/placed horses, which is good news moving forwards. One that got away.. Tawny Port… I did stare at him for an age Wednesday morning but just swerved at 6/1. Were he 7s this morning I may have gone in, but alas I didn’t have a penny on… there is something psychological between a 6/1 and 7/1 shot which probably makes no logical sense! The horse…well he was 4/10,5p in his career before this run, so a rather consistent sort who liked winning. He’s had issues the last couple of years. He returned LTO after a long lay off, running on Heavy, in a C3 and sent off 20/1. Today he dropped in class, switched to a stiffer track, better ground and there was a jockey switch. Trainer/jockey had some ok stats. He was well drawn. In his younger days he’d won a big field C2 nursery off 79. So, running off 80 here in a C4 – well, his chance on paper was clear- it was a question as to whether he would ‘bounce’ I suppose, and/or he would come on from that last run enough. At 6s I couldn’t quite persuade myself. He bolted up, and could well get 7f on that evidence as he was scrubbed along early enough. So, I got that wrong, but that’s the type of profile and ‘doing something different’ factors which will find us plenty of nice winners over the season. Now doubt a few of you found him, so well done if so. I can just about live with that one, my mood helped by finding a winner!

 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

None. (I will be posting any Fell qualifiers, none on Thursday)

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Updates…

Trainer Track Proiles Flat Guide 2018... I will post up a link to an online PDFby Friday lunchtime, of what I have so far. I have 10 tracks from the 33 or so left to research, in order that their meetings arrive… Chepstow/Goodwood/Hamilton/Chester/Lingfield/York/Ayr/Carlisle/Ffos Las/Newmarket (July) . I know some of you like using the guide and seeing which the numbers behind the stats that a horse hits in Section 1. Mike needs a copy also, so he can pull me up on when I miss a qualifier or three!! 🙂

My plans for the rest of the week…

As always, you won’t notice much difference to Section 1 and the Test Zone, certainly not this weekend… BLESSED TO EMPRESS (the horse I have a share in) runs in the 8.20 at Chelmsford… I will be in attendance and it’s the first time I’ve seen her race live…luckily a friend from ‘home’ is in London on Thursday so i’m dragging him along. It also means I get a free lift back home where i’ll be spending the weekend, taking in the racing from Newmarket on Sunday. I prefer visiting the July Course (non music nights, which are generally full of drunks and yobs) but there is something special about being on The Rowley Mile when the sun is shining. Moving in to next week…. I’m off to Dublin Thursday-Sunday to watch Noel Gallagher on the Thursday and generally drink plenty of the black stuff. Anyway, that doesn’t concern you too much in terms of Section 1 and Test Zone, but more may be posted up on the morning of racing than would usually be the case, but as always i’ll try and get the main content posted asap each day. 

The horses…well Blessed...she has a mind of her own… you could read something into the fact i’m making the effort to go! IF she behaves herself pre race (that is a big IF esp into the stalls) AND if she breaks on terms, (another IF, she keeps ducking and missing the kick, annoying) she would go close here I think. Many ifs, and i’ll be having a moderate EW wager,price allowing, for interest. She is not at her ceiling in terms of mark but will just need plenty to go right. The other horse I have a share in, Really Super, runs at Goodwood on Saturday. I can’t make that. The idea is to get her A1 before heading back over hurdles on decent ground. She has strengthened up so much for her time off. I don’t think she will be 100% on Sat, but she ‘could’ be throw in with her flat mark so may not need to be. Anyway, we shall see how she goes. Exciting times. 

 

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Some Redcar stats pointers for Martin…also in comments below…

Martin….
Just had a look at some Redcar 3 YO only handicap stats, trainers… a few of these have runners and i’ll leave you to look at the horses! 🙂 last 5 years../

OMeara – 9/35,15p, +16
N Tinkler – 5/27,11p, +11 (3/12,8p, 5-5.5f)
M Easterby – 3/20,9p, +2
T Dascombe – 3/6,3p + 15
Hannon- 2/3
haggas – 2/2
E Dunlop 2/4

T Easterby – 3/13,4p, 1m-1m 1/2 f… a runner in 5.10 over that distance…

Do with that as you please, but that group tend to farm these races here, and/or are most efficient with the bullets they fire. Knowing my luck none of them will have a winner today!

GL
Josh

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

43 Responses

  1. I mentioned claimers this morning. Here are some riding tomorrow who trainers are supporting. I’ve left out the more established 3 or 5lb riders.
    C McGovern (5) 35 winners in Ireland, now with O’Meara.
    J Fisher, winner today; Paula Muir; R Harris; T Eley; H Burns; D Keenan; J Uys (it’s pronounced ‘Ace’).
    And the magnificently named Thore Hammer Hansen, based with R Hannon and the subject of good reports, despite just starting out. Rossa Ryan has done well there in the last year.
    Hopefully, they can help us when nurseries start.

  2. off to Redcar in the morning , we have VIP Racing UK tickets so we get to go in one of the suites in the main grandstand included is
    A talk through the card by Racing UK’s Dave Nevison at approximately 1pm.
    Complimentary tea and coffee will be available throughout the day
    And i could win a free £50 bet in their tipping competition
    so if anyone has any good things, fancies etc please post.

    1. 340 Maksab is a ‘capper to follow; raced in higher grade at the end of last season and should be ready after a seasonal pipe-opener.
      440 Have a look at Moltoir, stepping up to 10f, and see if he’s hard fit. This could be the right race though there are others that might be readied for it, being a 3yo weak h’cap.

    2. spent a fair bit of time going through the ,lets be fair, uninspiring card and my initial thoughts are
      2-10 Go Annie Go
      2-40 Gold Stone
      3-10 ??? haven’t a clue
      3-40 Maksab
      4-10 Lord Rob for whatever change i have in my pocket
      4-40 Moltoir and Global Style both ew
      5-10 Mardet and Plansini both ew price allowing
      but as they used to say on That’s Life (showing my age) unless you know differently 🙂

      1. Hi Martin, how about Destinata in the 3.10. Fanshawe is 3 from 3 with his 3 year old miaden auctions and 1 from 1 at the course. At 11/1 general it looks a nice bet.

        Good luck today

  3. A small success today with a 25/1 place and an 11/2 winner to give us 1.5pts profit on the day. Three AW meetings tomorrow at Lingfield, Southwell and Chelmsford. Qualifiers as follows:
    Lingfield
    2.00 Widnes 4/1
    3.30 Dutiful Son 5/1
    4.30 Queen of Dreams 16/1 & Shania Says 7/1
    5.00 X Rated 9/2

    Southwell
    3.20 Sketching 5/1
    4.20 Round The Island 14/1 & Limerick Lord 5/1
    4.50 Roy’s Legacy 9/2

    Chelmsford
    6.20 Storm Jazz 20/1 (EW) & Secratario 12/1
    8.20 Roy’s Dream 15/2

    1pt win each except where noted.

    Good Luck

      1. Sadly the run didn’t reflect the price crash (was a 20p r4 but still dropped by almost 2/3 of the price)

  4. Musselburgh 8.10 Prazares 7/1
    Fanning has ridden 2 out of 2 winners here for Eyre and an overall record which is a healthy 33/7/12 22.63pts profit 68.58ROI

    1. Fanning is one of the cleverest jockeys around and the horse is well drawn here to get an early lead into the bend at a course which suits front running.
      I think he may kick on coming off the bend and look to hold them all off in the straight.

      1. Very hard to get past once he goes off the bend… I like him at Chester in certain races.
        Tony Mc

  5. Martin….
    Just had a look at some Redcar 3 YO only handicap stats, trainers… a few of these have runners and i’ll leave you to look at the horses! 🙂 last 5 years../

    OMeara – 9/35,15p, +16
    N Tinkler – 5/27,11p, +11 (3/12,8p, 5-5.5f)
    M Easterby – 3/20,9p, +2
    T Dascombe – 3/6,3p + 15
    Hannon- 2/3
    haggas – 2/2
    E Dunlop 2/4

    T Easterby – 3/13,4p, 1m-1m 1/2 f… a runner in 5.10 over that distance…

    Do with that as you please, but that group tend to farm these races here, and/or are most efficient with the bullets they fire. Knowing my luck none of them will have a winner today!

    GL
    Josh

  6. Re the Hugh Taylor chat we had the other day – his selection is 33/1 on ATR and is best priced 14/1 at 9.40!

    1. Yep i noticed that.
      Will never get the stated price unless it drifts.
      Ken posted the same 12hrs ago and only got 20/1!

    2. Martin
      You are recording Hugh Taylor could you record his record of bets at Grade 1 and selective Grade 2 meetings where the betting market will be stronger and his tip prices should stand up more.
      I recorded him for 2 years some time ago,but did not separate his bets,still doubt if he is a viable tipster to ever make money from if you back all his bets.

        1. Martin
          I’m logging them and have been since 21/3 so maybe your time is better spent. There’s a need to be sensible about the prices as today’s 33/1 was with Paddy power ( which if you haven’t had it closed or severely restricted then you’re not winning, enjoy while it lasts) and Betfair which will have most punters beating prices, down to dross stakes. Its pointless stating best available prices from the likes of Marathon, Unibet etc so I use the general price as Hugh’s base price then have €2 at the best price I can get. Finally I log the BFSP and as I said before there’s reason to believe nothing is lost in waiting and reviewing his tips in depth instead of jumping in blindly.
          By doing this you have an advantage of how going changes, draw, non runners, betting market etc effects the selection. Hugh had a strike rate of 16% last year and at just over 5/1 break even there’s enough to suggest that culling short priced horses( I shall look into this) and selective choices( going change etc against selection) can lead to profit. A good staking plan to take into account Hugh’s opinion ( his 1 pt selections can have a write up varying from strong selection to “speculative”) can possibly enhance figures.
          No matter what, his opinion, like several on here is well worth reading regardless and it all adds up to us making more informed choices.

          1. Nick who authored B2yo did a linguistic analysis of Hugh Taylor’s bets over quite a long period, hoping to tie in specific wording used with the winners. Last I heard it was a lot of hard work for no firm conclusions. However he has disappeared so maybe he is on that mythical Polynesian beach enjoying the fruits of his labours.

  7. No sign of any rain or drizzle here in Edinburgh. Not usually much different from Musselburgh so ground should be ok

  8. COLINS BETS
    Southwell
    3.50 Florencio
    4.20 Best Tamayuz
    4.50 Roy’s Legacy
    4.50 Pearl Legacy
    7.20 Pearl Specture
    Over at Redcar Plansina worth a glance but had 8 runs on turf and only been placed once so not for me.

      1. Hi Kevo19 and all
        Do not double up the AW i am putting all my bets on members and that includes AW, and i am only putting the AW onto the free post and if anyone from the free posts wishes access to all bets then they will have to subscribe to the members.

  9. NOTE all…
    Friday’s post will be up first thing Friday morning, asap. I won’t be home until 10.30 pm or so, at which point i’ll be researching Chepstow’s stats profile.
    Josh

  10. Tips – we lost another 4 points yesterday and are minus 8 for May to date – Only one tip today, 2.30 LP Paco’s Prince, 10/1, 1 point each way – ran well LTO and will come on for the run.

    Good luck.

  11. Poor day yesterday with Remember the Days missing out on that 5th place due to a NR. The other three looked like they needed that first run for fitness. Only one race today but two selections.

    3:40 Redcar – Maksab (4/1 gen) 1pt WIN
    Completion (11/2 gen) 1pt WIN
    Maksab; one that went into my tracker after the email from Nag Nag Nag, looking at the race today he has a chance to make the nice mark he is on count. Ran very well LTO at Nmk to get 3rd over 8f, if that form continues we could see further improvement today.
    Completion; drawn to him based on some trainer stats, over 20% SR in the last 30/14 days, course record is good, and looking at HC1 stats he is over 25% win and 45% place. This is basically at stats pick as he only ran on AW but great things are expected of him so let’s see how he starts off.

  12. Congratulations JOsh re Blessed to Empress.
    Bet you are pleased you made the trip to Chelmsford.
    Had a nibble on her myself based on your roundabout recommendation.

  13. Josh can do no wrong at present…

    I’ve had a couple of winners in the past whilst a member of a small syndicate

    Can’t beat the thrill of winning & celebrating after the race

  14. Yeah nice one Josh. I had a bet on its first race and I had a small one on tonight. Enjoy your night.

  15. Fethiye Boy Musselburgh Friday 14:40 1pt e/w Price taken 16/1
    Duke Cosimo Newcastle Friday 20:05 1pt e/w Price taken 7/1

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