Members Daily Post: 01/05/18 (complete)

NOTES (x1) Section 1 (comp) + result summary

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc


1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers



3.35 –

Seduce Me (all hncps) H3 G3 9/2 S5 UP

Prying Pandora (micro dist/class/runs) I3 G3 3/1 UP



3.15 – Insomniac (all hncps 5 yrs, all) (handicap debut) ES+  9/2 S3A  UP 6/1 

4.15 – Ramblow (m dist) w2 H3 I1 5/2 S2 UP



3.25 – Super Julius (all hncps 5yrs, all) ES+ H3 I3 G3 9/4 S3A S4 S5 2nd (SH) 

4.55 – Good Luck Charm (m class) I3 4/1 UP

5.25 –

Sussex Girl (all hncps) w2 w1H1 I3 10/3 S2 UP

Junoesque (m class) I3 28/1 UP




H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 22nd April 2018)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 22nd April 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  –  … or failing that… 



2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 7/80,26p, +2.5)  (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +101.5)


3.15 Y – Insomniac – 1 point win – 4/1 (gen) UP 6/1 (this time the market told the story there, not much to get excited about at any point, moving on swiftly..maybe ground, maybe still a baby, possibly wants even further.) 

There were just a few too many stats to tempt me in here at what is a rather short price for me, but this one has the sort of profile that will most likely go one of two ways – not yet very good/will struggle, or will suddenly appear to have pounds in hand and will demolish them. You won’t do too badly backing all of Simcock’s handicappers here, as per my stats research in the last 5 years in 3yo+ and 4yo+ handicaps… 48 bets / 13 wins / 17p / 27% sr / +17 SP / +22 BFSP / AE 1.33  (why she qualifies as an ES+)  In the last 3 seasons… 28 bets / 9 wins / 13p / 32% sr / +10 SP / +12 BFSP / AE 1.42 . I was also lured in by the fact he is 4/12,5p here with handicap debutants in the last 5 years, and 6/18,10p when Jamie Spencer rides. He is 6/18,8p with all handicappers here that are moving up in trip from their last run, in the last 5 years.

This horse had three quick runs on the AW earlier in the year where he didn’t really do much, nor was expected to based on his price, having been held up out the back each time. He’s had 52 days off which I found interesting given this profile (plenty of time to get some proper work into him/teach him further), runs on turf for the first time, a more galloping/conventional track where he can stretch out, is related to a handful of nice types, and Jamie jumps on for the first time. There is a question over the ground, an unknown, which is the case for all in here bar the fav really. I thought this looked a weak enough race on paper and very winnable. There is a chance it becomes tactical also, not run at a true gallop, which places more emphasis on the jockey- Spencer and SDS are the best in here by quite some way and may be doing battle until the end…if this turns into a sprint say, it may make any negative as to the ground less important. It should dry out a tad leading up to this race though. And if he is thrown in, that will help also. I’d like to think connections would pull him out if they deemed it unsuitable. In the context of this small field race I thought 4/1 looked ok, given he ‘could be anything’ profile and the supporting evidence. There is a chance they now completely change tactics and race him more prominently. There is a chance that as yet he isn’t very good. I’ll roll the dice and be prepared to curse another horse under 6/1 not doing the business for me. I do find it hard to make the game pay at this end of the market, under 6/1; just the sort of horse that will give me a sleepless night!! I think it’s between him and the fav, who is now 0/5,0p at class 5 (3.5k+) and above in handicaps, but his fitness/proven in conditions/SDS may be enough, and his new trainer may eek out further improvement.

That will be all for ‘tips’.



Yesterday was frustrating…any horse from section 1 that wins at 12s+, or even 8s+, I think I should be finding and elevating to ‘tipping’ level in Section 2, especially when they are lightly raced. Clearly I miss plenty and that is an emotion that has to be controlled in order to not pull your hair out with the approach here. Black Isle Boy won well enough at 12s>16/1 SP, and my pin didn’t land on him, and he carried none of my money. Well done to one of the Chris’ who tipped him in the comments. As with any such winner I ponder plenty post race in order to try and improve for the future. Had the brain been in functioning order I could have tipped him and could have written the following…

this lightly raced handicapper makes his seasonal reappearance and there is a chance, aged 4, that he progresses/builds on, last year’s efforts. I will take fitness on trust given O’Meara can ready one and this horse has won after an even longer break previously. His best efforts last year were in the first half of the season and he spent the latter half running in 3 year old only handicaps. He returns to an all age handicap here, steps up in trip from his final two runs of last season and down two classes from his last run (so doing plenty different). He is well drawn (boxes 1-5/low, appear to do best when some cut on the straight course,as we saw with Mr Orange, also unbacked!) and is the choice of Tudhope. At 12s he looks worth chancing. 

That’s what I could have written, and have done for plenty of flat horses in the past – but for whatever reason I talked myself out of him yesterday. Maybe it was the fact he had two runners, the other with a similar profile, but the jockey booking turned out to be significant, and he didn’t have a proven record fresh. He was also languishing rather low down on all three ratings sets, but given he was open to improvement as a 4 year old and could have developed plenty since last seen, there should always be some caution with such things. So I got that one wrong, plenty to ponder! (and there will be many more of those that I miss, but re-capping as I do above is part of my process, and does ensure I will find more moving forwards than I otherwise would do)



3.Micro System Test Zone



4.Any general messages/updates etc

Results Update 

Weekly Results Update

Results Update: Summary below, link in Key for Jumps Strategies will be updated next week. 

Weekly Results Update: Advised Strategies 23rd- 29th April


Weekly TOTAL (advised strategies) (Section 1): 

  • JUMPS – S1 (0/1,0p, -1) S2 (1/10,2p, +3) S2A (0/7,0p, -7) S3 (0/3,1p, -3) S3A (2/6,3p, +10) S4 (1/5,2p, -1.75) S5 (1/5,p,+8)
  • FLAT 2018: S1 (1/2,2p, +5) S2 (1/6,2p, +1) S3A (2/8,5p, +4.5) S4 (1/3,1p, +4) S5 (1/6,1p, +1) S6 (1/7,5p, 0 ) 

TEST ZONE (Jumps angles) : 5/23,7p, +12.7 

‘In Form Horses’ (won LTO or two runs ago, backed once if both a W1+W2)

  • Jumps: 1/9,4p, -1.5 
  • Flat: 1/10,2p, -3

Handicap Debut (jumps+flat): 0/2,1p, -2 

S3A Double/Treble rated (jumps+flat): 0/3,2p, -3 




Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

43 Responses

  1. Returns of my bets since September 2017 when starting backing them at Betfair Exchange SP approx 4% commission.
    Sep + 34.95 points
    Oct + 64.63
    Nov – 41.52 minus
    Dec + 10.45
    Jan + 46.44
    Feb + 38.22
    Mar + 37.82
    Apr – 18.98 minus
    Total profit + 172.01 points
    These returns are for all codes of racing and have been backed by myself on Betfair Exchange SP no fancy BOG prices and no false claims.
    Treat it as an investment along with a bank of 50 times your stake
    £10 win bets = £500 when bank grows to £750 increase your stake to
    £15 win bets = £750 when bank grows to £1000 increase your stake to
    £20 so you are only risking your original £500 bank with the growth
    Not trying to teach you to suck eggs but any form of betting needs a bank and records to be kept,the above returns will be in Betfair computer files.
    Having used this method for many years with success cannot see it failing in the future but please take note there is no guarantee.
    Bets should be up by 11.00 hours.

      1. Impressive results Colin, especially at BSP. How many bets have you been averaging a month over that period?

        1. And just looking at the worst month you’ve had recently, do you think a slightly bigger bank would be an idea? I think for my own sanity I’ll start with 75-100 points.

  2. I read a few posts lately about Hugh Taylor. As it happens I have logged his bets since 21/3 which has actually has been a highly productive time. If I can defeat technology I will send Josh the spreadsheet, who I’m sure can make better reading of it. 17 winners from 69 @ 24.7 % is well over his life long percentage but its more important what prices us poor punters can get on these and if it still pays.
    Hughs best price average came out at 11.4 while his general average price was 10. The price I secured on issue from best book or Betfair was 8, while BFSP was also 8. Liquidity on Betfair and access to best price will obviously effect outcome but it looks as my stats hold up over a longer period.
    Firstly the numbers suggest that a strike rate of 11% will break even at early prices although over time BFSP holds up, so missing morning prices may not be the end of it taking in all selections. Like in all gambling, sport or life, one is genetically inclined to risk averse, so one naturally declines a position that was so much better earlier.
    So while this sample could be considered small I think it points out that missing the initial available price is not essential to profit and an 11% break even is well worth consideration long term. Bear in mind most of these available prices were on betfair at 9.30ish. My own thought is you can afford long term to relax and review his tips without losing out. Analyse, compare, take on on board other opinions and dont worry about prices is the way to go.
    Bottom line is this is a man who is extrarordinary in his selections and can be relied on to give great advice. Will try to send spreadsheet to josh

    1. Yes but…..this is his best spell for over a year. I track Hugh on a daily basis and he has had a few sticky losing patches over the last six months of 2017. You need to judge a tipster over at least 6 months and the real minimum should be 12 months. He has been part of my system for the past two weeks but before then had been out of it for a long while. 2017 was one of his weaker years despite what APR have said live, which in all reality was untrue in regard to the price you could have got for the selection. Albeit he had been successful in previous years.I am not sure where you are going with this?

      1. martin,
        I completely understand your view, I’ve had the same view for years. However a friend convinced me to see different. Yes he is having a great time but break even is 11% compared to his 31% over this short period . Regardless he is a judge that is worth having in your armory knowing that after the initial plunge you are missing nothing statistically on his prices

        1. The sample is too small you initially talk of. If you say Hugh Taylor has made a good profit since the start of 2015 or start of 2016 I agree. If you were to say since the start of 2017 it would be marginal. So i am saying based upon historical data Hugh Taylor can be followed but if you started early 2017 you may well have only just started to make a profit.

        2. I agree he is a good judge but surely all edge is swallowed up by the prices of his selections getting slashed 2 minutes after he puts them up on ATR?

          I would be interested to see what ROI you get long term using the reduced prices if you follow all his selections

          1. There is a difference between them being slashed in price based upon the price that his blog states and what it actually is in reality. I would take the price that he puts up with a pinch of salt and judge the price change from when he puts his tips up to the difference of the SP. Some of his selections still go off a big enough price, so if someone does follow him it is not all bad.

          2. Maybe he would show better returns at Grade 1 courses and a selection of Grade 2 courses where there is a competitive betting market.
            You certainly wont win at SP with him.

          3. “What price do you suggest readers should aim for if the advised price goes quickly?
            This is a good and valid question. Having looked through my records, I would say that the cut-off point turning profit into loss for my selections has usually been around 77-78% of the recommended odds. As a very general rule of thumb, then, it would seem prudent not to take much less than 80% of the odds advised, though the strength of confidence might be a factor – for example, if I recommended a 3-point bet on a 20-1 shot, it’s likely that my own estimation is that the horse should be rather shorter than a 16-1 chance, whereas with a 1-point selection at the same odds it’s probably not worth backing it at under 16-1.”

            I’m not sure when this was posted, but this is from a Q+A with Hugh on the ATR site


            So using today’s selections as an example, the first bet is a double on Gowanbuster (4.5) and Harrogate (6.0) at combined odds of 26.0. Within 5 minutes the prices on both horses were cut to a general 3.75. So on Gowanbuster you’re now getting about 78% of the advised price (Hugh’s break even point) and on Harrogate just 55%. Instead of the advised 26.0 on the double, you’re now looking at 14.0.

            The second selection is Exclusive Waters, tipped at 12.0. Within 2 minutes of the tip being posted, the price across the board was cut to 9.0. 10 minutes later it had come in a couple of points more. Based on his own cut off point of 80% of the advised price, it would only be a bet at 10.0.

            I’m basing the time that the prices were cut from the Oddschecker history, but I think it takes a minute or two to update. I backed some of Hugh’s tips a few years ago, and from memory it was impossible to get on at his advised price. I remember waiting for his Twitter to be updated and getting my bets on within 30 seconds of him doing so, but the prices were already gone. So although Hugh’s website / Twitter page says that the Exclusive Waters was tipped at 10:02 and Oddschecker shows the price reductions happening at 10:04, I don’t think anyone will have been able to get on at the advised price.

            Now maybe you could get lucky and follow during a period when he’s outperforming his own figures, but long term I don’t see how anyone can make money following Hugh’s tips.

          4. I like this question. As I said previously you will not ever get the advertised price. It is a hook. Value is a judgement but I like the figure of 70% but if I liked the horse a bit I may go to 60%.

          5. I think the only honest way to judge Tayloyr’s results is at BFSP or at least half an hour after he posts.

          6. And I guess the same applies to all tipsters really. It’s certainly the main thing I’m looking for in my first month with someone – what prices are they using, how close can I get to them and based on that, how close am I likely to get to the kind of returns they advertise?

            I’ve started following SotD again recently having not done so for a couple of years, but to be honest I’m not sure I’ll continue. With the tip being published when it is (ie, when it’s mayhem at home), the fact that there isn’t a text / email update so I’ll probably be a couple of minutes late spotting the time, I’m never getting on at the prices. I think also with the timing of SotD, not all the bookies have the race priced up when the tips are published. So tonight’s was advertised at 5/1 which was available with 2 bookies (PP + BFSP) for 5 minutes, 9/2 with 365, and 4/1 with the couple of other smaller bookies who’ve got the race priced up. If I’m consistently missing out by half a point or more on the advertised prices, either because I’m not quick enough off the mark or because I can’t get a bet on with a couple of bookies, then that must be a big chunk of any potential profit gone.

          7. I agree. Would be a lot more helpful if SotD tips were released once more bookies have priced up the race.

          8. Say I’m trying to work out the break even point for another tipster – the point at which their tips would make no profit. Would that be (1/ROI) or have I got that wrong?

          9. As Martin said, 67 is a small sample size but I think its big enough to show the average prices. The thing that sticks out for me is on average there’s little difference to the price I can get immediately and BFSP, meaning that one doesn’t need to rush in straight away.
            One thing nobody can deny is Hugh is a great judge so maybe the best policy is to consider his selections first rather than the blind panic to get on. Anyone who is reasonably successful at this game has no way of getting these fancy prices anyway, unless you call 2.98 with sky, 3.07 with betfair or a 2.52 betfred a worthy stake. all in all its just another possible string to ones bow.

  3. While its early I’d like to give my opinion on staking plans. Although I’ve been betting for 50 years I love learning more like how Americans have a totally different view and habits to us. Staking plans on paper all make sense and if adhered to at least give a reason for the outcome.
    The big hurdle most fall at in staking plans is psychological and called risk averse, which we are all genetically programmed for. Its not that your staking plan explains a 25 game losing run logically but you brain just cannot cope with that and sends messages begging you to stop.
    Bottom line here is if you cant be sure your system/theory is working then no staking plan will help you, in fact it will probably bury you. If on the other hand you are convinced with your situation then the following is the best policy.
    If you are happy that your theory or selections are positive then a 10% increase in bet is advised Monthly or more aggressively, Weekly. So 1000 bank is 1% stake =10 bet. After X time (week, month etc) Profit +200 the next bet 12. losses drop down.
    In my experience this is the best way to go as a staking plan but remember it only works if your system provides a winning rate.

    1. I think staking plans depend on your stake per point. If you are betting high stakes you would have to have complete discipline in terms of bets/staking. Otherwise you will not be functioning successfully. If it is lower stakes and it is mostly fun then it is not as important to stick with it. I bet £50 per point under 10/1 and £25 per point over 10/1 on horses up to 25/1 and £10 per point over 25/1. I bet £100 per point on football and £25 per point on golf. I like to keep it simple. I have a bank of 200 points per sport.
      If you are a social gambler then bet what you are happy with staking, you do not need to be that rigid.

  4. 3.35 Nottingham Seduce Me £10 e/w 11/2 Skybet paying 3 places, Jim Crowley booked to ride has ridden horse 3 times won twice and a third, was a non runner at Ripon on Saturday was 8th in the spring mile and Mr Burkes horses are normally better for a run.
    4.05 Nottingham Amazing Michele £5 e/w 12/1 most places, Richard Fahey has his horses running well at this time, dropping down from class 3 to class 5, has won on soft going before and good 5lb claimer on board.

  5. Apart from Junoesque in 5.25 nothing of any value in the stats.
    Betting on a 25/1 shot in a maiden 3yo race should normally be viewed as unwise but I am drawn to Possibly So 2.30 at nottingham
    David Elseworth is 6/14 in 3yo races at Nottingham for a whopping +74,that would be an average sp of 12/1+,so how does he do in 3yo maidens overall 6/24+55,3yo 1m-1m1fdistance 16/74 +86.Unfortunately its not all good news.Aaron Jones has had a couple of winners at the track but has gone 23 rides and 82 days winless.
    Possibly So hits a lot of the sweet spots.Its a dead 8 race so we can expect a i will have a win bet.
    Was guilty of a bit of overthinking on Fridays selections,still a profit of 12pts taking the 14/1 on Presidental

  6. My Trainer in Focus Karl Burke does well in 3yo races at Nottingham.Double Reflection is a bit short so I will be going with Chantresse at 9/1 has to be the one to go with

  7. Since tracked (23rd April) finished April +17.37pts, obviously that will iron out over the course of a month but still very positive. Helped by that nice win yesterday as well! Let’s see if May can bring much more of the same.

    3:55 Brighton – White Chocolate (5/1 gen) 1pt EW
    One that caught my eye as she has a similar stats to yesterdays winner. First two starts of last season gave the only 2 wins of the season, again towards the second half of the season she tapered off. Her mark hasn’t fallen much but she is back to the mark she was running well at the likes of Goodwood and Chepstow. Would prefer drier conditions but still fully capable on going, only other with form on going is Canberra Cliffs. Hits top of my ratings so I am expecting a good first run of the season. The mention goes the way of Flying North, big thing for me is the incredible form the trainer Hannon is in at the moment. Pair that with Jockey who he has some great form with means at 10/1 he is worth some change. Concerns would be fitness but a lot of these horses are returning after a long break so the trainer being in form could mean he is ready to go, also the going may not be preferred but with some sun forecast it could dry out and suit him perfectly.
    Mention: Flying North (10/1 gen) 0.5pt EW

    See if I can start May on the right foot..

    1. Frustrating as White Chocolate was poorly run by the jockey, could not find away through until it was too late. Rather unfortunate as he was well backed. Has a win in him if the jockey gets the tactics right. Flying north ran keen from the front then tapered away 2f out, could be ground or just needed the run for fitness either way he looks promising. Both in tracker

    Quite start today but please remember that with 5 to 8 meetings a day there will be plenty of bets over the month so do not back without a bank.
    3.15 Tyrsal
    3.45 Suzi’s Connoisseur
    5.05 The Golden Cue
    Good to see the sun shining long may it continue so that the ground can dry out.

  9. Tips – we finished +4.25 for April and +9.25 points post Cheltenham.
    Today I will go with 4.15 Yar Ramblow, been in form on the AW, potentially well handicapped on turf, 5LB claim with Nicola Currie, suited by 7F, 3/1 x 2 points win. Also 5.05 Not Angel Force, will have come on for its last run, drops in grade and 3 LB down, trip and ground ok, 7/1 1 point each way.

    Good luck.

  10. Morning all. After a full month away, I’ve decided it’s time to give my AW system another try.

    On reviewing the stats through Feb/Mar, it became clear I was tinkering too much and the tips I put up here were not always based on my basic system. If I’d stuck with it, the losses in Feb/Mar would’ve been fairly small and I would’ve made a small profit in April.

    So I’m going back to basics. The only change I’ve made going forward is with the no. of runners. This is now restricted to races with 4-11 runners and gives very similar profits to races with all runners, overall and on a month by month basis but reduces the no. of bets by around 1/3rd.

    Meantime, I’ve taken out a subscription with HRB and will have a look to see if there is a way of improving my system further but it looks pretty complicated and likely to take some time to get my head around it. Any pointers appreciated.

    So I will stick with my current system for May and see where it goes from there.

    First two meetings are at Newcastle and Kempton. Qualifiers as follows:
    5.55 Snaffled 5/1
    6.55 Archibelle 12/1
    8.25 Fuel Injection 6/1 & Fintry Flyer 17/2
    1pt win

    5.45 Wolstonbury 22/1 (EW) & Wolf Hunter (EW)
    8.15 Zabaletaswansong 20/1 (EW)
    0.5pt EW

    Good luck

      1. Thanks Colin and good luck with your new tipping. I’ve put a few shekels on them 🙂

        1. To much information Ken for i now know who to blame if we have a poor start!!! Ha Ha

    1. Welcome back Ken. Like we said before let any system run for a few months and only tinker if it can be improved. HRB will pay for you and Josh and others are excellent at using it and so just ask if you have any questions.

    2. To arms, to arms again …the enemy is at the door…..The bookie’s… lol.
      Best of luck Ken….
      Tony mc.

  11. archimento 5.25 brighton for philip hide second run after a break looks on a very good mark with jockey claim down from 70 to 60 first time cheekpieces

  12. I suppose most here would be aware of the old ploy of running a horse over wrong trip, going etc to get a handicap mark. As this happens naturally for all, some trainers are more adept than others. James Tate always maximises his horses rating this way and while its had 4 runs, his horse Cross Swords in the 8.45 kemp fits the bill.

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