Members Daily Post: 24/04/18 (complete)

VIDEO PREVIEW, Notes x3 Fest TIPS x3 Section 1 (comp) + results update + Punchy (all) (Mullins + Jessie H + Elliot) + test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

JUMPS

Exeter

1.40 – Gaelic Flow (m1) 20/1 S2A  UP

2.15 – Bermeo (hncp h) G3 8/1  2nd 6/1 

4.25 – Scrupuleux (m2) 14/1 S2 UP 

 

Ludlow

2.35 – Valseur Du Granval (hncp c) ES+ I1 12/1 S2 S3A S5 WON 12/1>9/2 

3.05 – Moss On The Mill (hncp c) ES+  18/1 S2A S3A UP

 

Huntingdon

5.45 – 

Darebin (nov hncp c) H1 I1 G3 9/4  S4  UP

San Pedro De Senam (nov hncp c)  I3 6/1  S5 UP

6.20 – 

Innisfreelad (all hncps) 13/2  UP

Milord (hncp h)  16/1 S2A  UP

Frozen Flame (m2) 14/1 S2  UP

6.55 – Glengra (hncp c) 11/2 

7.30 – Baron Du Plessis (hncp c) H3 I3 G3 7/2 S4 

 

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FLAT

Yarmouth

4.00 – 

Crimson Rosette (all hncps) w2 w1 H3 I1 G3 4/1  S2 S4 S5 UP

Ciaoadiosimdone (micro age) (hncp debut) w1 H3 11/1 UP

4.30 – Luna Magic (micro class) I3 10/1  WON 10/1>9/1 

 

Brighton

4.15 – 

Whitecrest (micro TJC) I1 G3 6/1 S2 S6 UP

Baltic Prince (micro dist) 14,30 H1 I3 G1 6/1 S1 S2 S4 S6  WON 6/1>3/1 

5.25 – 

Hedging (all hncp 5yrs, all hncp,micro 90 days) ES+ 6/1 S3A  WON 6/1>3/1 

Sayesse (micro dist) 14 H3 I3 6/1 2nd 

5.55 – Ettie Hart (micro dist) 14 12/1 3rd

6.30 – 

Becca Campbell (all hncp 5yrs, all hncp) ES+ I3 11/1 S3A 

Arctic Sea (all hncps) 14  7/2 

Stormingin (micro going+class) H3 G3  3/1 S5 

7.40 – Barrsbrook (micro going) 9/1 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 22nd April 2018)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 22nd April 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 6/65,23p, +8.5)  (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +102)

 

NOTES

4.25 Exet – Scrupuleux – 1 point win – 16/1 (gen) UP (Gustav likely winner to my eyes won 10/3 )

6.20 Hunt – Frozen Flame – 1 point win – 16/1 (gen) UP, no excuse, bad blunder may have cost 4th, but not the win. Travelled into it well, next run maybe. 
7.40 Bright- Barrsbrook – 1 point win – 9/1 (gen)

 

‘FESTIVAL TIPS’ (+102 2018)

4.55 Punch

Lagostovegas – 1.5 points win – 16/1 (gen) UP

Bunk Off Early – 1 point win – 16/1 (bet365/888) (14/1 gen) UP

Grand Partner – 1/2 a point win – 20/1 (gen) UP

*rubbish :), that will teach me for being a tad too bullish on Lagos there, lost position, never in it, nowhere near the winner. Moving on. 

(danger horses at a price… Low Sun/Western Boy/Joey Sasa/Light That (had a saver on this one at 20s) have taken on Elliot, we shall see if that proves foolish!)

VIDEO PREVIEW for all 6 horses… I aimed to make it 7 minutes.. haha, what a fool… it’s 26 mins but I was as quick as I could be and packed plenty in, to absorb, if you so care about how I approach the above/how my brain works/why I like those above today etc >>>

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Angles

A Honeyball 

1.40 Exet  – Solstice Twilight (m2, 5/1<) DNQ 3rd 12/1

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

2.35 Lud – Valseur Du Granval (m3) WON 12/1>9/2 

3.05 Lud – Moss On The Mill (m3/4) UP

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4.Any general messages/updates etc

Results Update: links in Key have been updated.

Brief thoughts…In short the ‘winning portfolio’ that I hope will be a systematic foundation/starting point in time (Jumps S1 + Flat S6 +S4 – treble rated- both codes) is…

22/137,58p, -20 early/bog, -25 BFSP.

Had a few more of those 37 placed horses won, it would look a bit better! Lots of knocking on the door in 2018 so far. S4 is responsible for most of those losses. I do need to take a look at that from a price perspective, and certainly whether just backing those 3/1, 7/2 or bigger on morning prices is the place to focus. I suspect those below that price wipe their face/run at a loss, as they are no doubt priced up closer to what they should be. Still, that ‘portfolio’ is one or two winners away from being in profit and the fact 42% win/place is solid enough. A bit more luck and a few more winners required.

Jumps S3A double/treble rated (ES+, plus two or more red symbols) continues to tick along this season. Still early days and by the end of 2018 the picture will be clearer. I wouldn’t necessarily back them systematically yet, but any ‘qualifiers’ may provide a decent starting point for further research, and in any case such stats are good to know … 64 bets / 20 wins / 29 w+ p / +32.25 

There will be similar qualifiers for us to track on the Flat also.

Jumps S2A… so any Jumps stats qualifier in Section 1, priced 16/1-25/1 on morning prices (it’s that simple) in 2018…

  • Win only (1 point win): 4/63,15p, +28 , +60 (BFSP)
  • Each Way (1/2 point EW): 4/63,15p, +26.35
  • Each Way (1pt EW): 4/63,15p, +52.7

This approach isn’t for the faint hearted as there will be long losing runs. But, it is looking a very promising approach to the bigger priced ones. Nearly 25% have won/placed from a small sample, which gives the EW option is that continues. Again, not one to dive in just yet systematically until more evidence, but useful info for now.

w1/w2… those Jumps Section 1 qualifiers that won LTO (w1) or two starts ago (w2), since 12th Feb, now : 15/69,26p, +17.77

Anyway, you can flick through the links above in The KEY if you wish, which cover plenty more. Any questions, fire away, as always.

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Punchestown 2018

Trainer pointers…

REPORT HERE>>>> (copied below)

For now some notes on Willie Mullins… (Jessie H and Big Gordon to follow…this week is generally about the three of them)

All stats relate to the previous 5 meetings

 

Willie Mullins

Micro Angle (angle saved,quals posted)

  • NH Flat
  • 1st career run OR 1st or 2nd LTO

37 bets / 12 wins / 19p / 32% sr / +31 SP / +42 BFSP / AE 1.69

  • Ran at a ‘Festival’ LTO: Chelt/Aintree/Leop (Christmas)/Fairy (Easter)
    • 5/8,6p, +35 BFSP

Horse ran at the Cheltenham Festival LTO

95 bets / 28 wins / 51p / 29% sr / +47 SP / +76 BFSP / AE 1.12

  • Priced 7/2-20/1 SP: 50 bets /12 wins / 21p / 24% sr / +64 SP / +93 BFSP

7/2 or bigger SP…

  • All handicaps: 3/15,5p, +37
  • PU or Fell at Chelt: 6/18,7p, +63
  • Jockey: J Codd/DE Mullins/D J Mullins/P Townend:
    • 31 bets / 10 wins / 13p / 32% sr / +98 BFSP
  • Age 4-8: 11/48,19p, +88
  • 3-4 runs this season: 9/33,16p, +76

Handicaps

  • 0 runs in handicap NH race type, ran in C1 LTO: 4/14,6p, +44
  • 0 runs in handicap NH race type, ran Chelt Fest LTO: 2/5,3p , +34
  • 0 runs in handicap NH race type, TOP 3 in the weights, 5/13,6p, +80  (angle saved,quals posted)

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Jessie Harrington

Micro Angle (angle saved,quals posted)

  • All handicaps
  • 0-1 run in handicap NH race type

18 bets / 8 wins / 11p / +81 BFSP

(8/39,14p all handicappers in the period)

 

Other pointers

  • Ignore NHF (1/31)….
    • 16/67,25p, +121, +247 BFSP ALL other runners
    • Age 5-7: 13/41,18p, +208
    • 1 runner in race: 10/31,16p, +141
    • 1st or 3rd LTO: 11/24,14p, +75
    • Ran in Novice Hurdle LTO: 4/8,5p, +153
    • 5+ runs this season: 13/46,22p, +255
    • Handicap Novice Chase: 3/5,3p
    • Handicaps/2m5f: 5/13,6p, +60

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Gordon Elliot

All Handicaps: 4/58,12p, -2

  • Aged 8/9: 3/10,4p, +28
  • 2m or 2m5f: 4/22,9p, +69
  • 4th to 7th LTO: 4/18, 6p, +73
  • All wins in C1 handicaps so far (0/20,5p outside)

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And finally…

The ‘target’ trainers? (angle saved,quals posted)

Gavin Cromwell / Harry Fry / Tom George / D A McLoughlin / Colin Tizard

46 bets / 15 wins / 23p / 32% sr / +101 SP / +153 BFSP / AE 2.53

  • Handicap chase + hurdle: 8/23,12p, +90

 

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Punchestown DAY 1

4.55

There is not too much help here , and the 0 from X stats may not be the strongest… but… 10/10 aged 6+ (4/5 0/57,11p), 10/10 had 2+ career wins (0/32,5p did not) and a random one but I needed some stats help… those with 1 run only over the CD are 0/59,6p.

Those that ran in a novice hurdle/chase, flat handicap, handicap nov hurdle LTO are 5/49 runners, 21p, +49

Those that won LTO have won 3 of the last 10.

8/10 carried 10-8 or less on their back,exc jockey claims (2/88,14p had 10-9+, although 2/33,6p were top 3 in the weights)

Pulling some of those strands together…

The first set of 3 stats + the ‘race type’ LTO (novice chase etc as above)… 5/23,p, +75… leaves one horse.. Western Boy 

The first set of 3 stats + won LTO (3/12,5p) leaves… Joey Sasa

The first 3 stats + had 10-8 or less on back… Tara Dylan (reserve) Ben Dundee / Ballyoisin / Light That

Maybe I will turn my guns on those 5 and see what I can come up with! I won’t bet more than 2 points on this race, but i’d best attack something. I’ll have a good go Tuesday morning.

I’d best get some Elliot/Harrington (0/14,4p in the race above) stats done first, and see if any of those in this race hit my Mullins Chelt LTO angles…

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DAY 1 ‘Qualifiers’ (starting points)

Saved angles…

Target Trainers

  • 4.20 – Vision Des Flos
  • 6.40 – Finian’s Oscar

No others.

Other horses of interest against the pointers above…

(I will miss things, if you use any of the stats above to find a horse or two, do please post a comment! :)) 

4.20 – Whiskey Sour

4.55- Lagostovegas / Light That / ALL of Elliots (distance hncp stat) (looks to me as though he is going for the ‘throwing mud’ approach in this race, we shall see)

5.30 – Douvan

6.40 – Rathvinden

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

30 Responses

  1. just wondered josh with the excellent tipping form you have been in lately can you see a pattern of consistancy in your betting that makes you think this could be your best year to date

    1. Well on Free tips and ‘Festival tips’ .. I have won more in the last 42 days (+184 points or so) than the previous two years combined! 🙂 +75 and +79 or so, 2016, 2017. If I add in ‘ members notes horses’ it is +303 points profit or so since Sept 1st 2017. Which is just silly, we had better brace for a chilly period 🙂 Hopefully when that happens (and it will) some of the strategies may pick themselves up off the floor/placed horses start winning etc. I wouldn’t be that successful without my approach… specialising in 3m+ handicap chases on free posts- well that’s where the blog started… and then using all my stats pointers as a starting point for thinking deeper about the horse’s chance/the race, as with Monday’s 14/1 winner. And then the big meeting notes/trainer angles/big race trends-stats… I have no idea how ‘form students’ attack a race ‘cold’ so to speak, day after day, and do well. Credit to them, but i’d be a bit stuffed without my approach, well i’d find another way but it would be harder/more time consuming. Having a ‘way in/starting point’ is crucial for me.
      However, I am just getting better, which I should be, given how much I think about the game/reflect/and beat myself up with my opus dei kit- all of that has led to the last 7-8 months/41 days. I am better than I was before September, no doubt about that. I’m not sure i’d have tipped Joe Farrell in November say. (partly how I look at unexposed/doing something different horses, and part in that I don’t tie myself to stats/trends- i use as a starting point and not a straight jacket) It’s all about progress, that’s half the fun. But you can’t get complacent, i still make too many errors for my liking but then you can never be perfect at anything, let alone being a ‘horse player’.
      I am in the best form I have ever been in, but then again my tipping has progressed each of the last 3 years. Hard graft plus the joy of being right! 🙂 (sometimes) The winnings/money is never a consideration, I just like solving the puzzle, and get a buzz off others getting stuck in. But then I am rather sad!
      Josh

  2. Something to contemplate for Punchy and the Elliott v Mullins battle – since 2004 Mullins has had 131 winners at the meeting and Elliott 14 in total. Historical data I know but it points to Mullins and winners, favouring the non handicap races.

    1. yea, they have installed hurdles at Yarmouth, didn’t you know? haha 🙂 … that’s my jumps brain in action… he is making handicap debut, but clearly not over hurdles! Thanks. The brain gets like that from now through to August…only the 5 meetings tomorrow, it will be 8 daily soon enough, fun fun! Your eagle eyes will come in very useful.

  3. Josh

    Am I reading that right, Jessie Harrington +247 BSP in the last 5 years with non NHF runners?! Some stat that is!

    1. Yep, your eyes do not deceive you… all her non NHF runners have been worth backing blind in recent years… that does include 1x 130.00 winner, and 3x 29.00+ (inc 39/48). Price is irrelevant, and such prices would suggest ‘form’ is irrelevant also! She hasn’t done great this month/last 30 days… There is either a problem/she hasn’t got the work into them for whatever reason…or, and fingers crossed…plenty of her string are about to relish this ‘good to yielding ground’ or whatever it is, provided it stays dry (haven’t checked weather!). Some caution, but he usually fires in a biggie or three from nowhere.

  4. Muthabir Ludlow Tuesday 15:35 1pt e/w- Price taken 10/1 Tipped up back in December to win at Kempton beating a horse who has won twice since. Since than he has ran in ground which was too soft for him. Back on good ground and only having his 3rd start since than I expect him to go close. He is considerably fresher than most of these and has his ideal rest. With the jockey claim he is effectively running off 115 which he won off last April. Trainer is in great form with 2 winners and 2 places for his last 4 runners.
    The Happy Chappy Ludlow Tuesday 15:05 1pt e/w-Price taken 7/1-13/2 Really should be favourite. Tipped up by Josh back in November when he won at the track over 3m2f in November before disappointing in the London National. He won that with something in hand with the 3rd 14 lengths back (2nd hasn’t ran since) He is effectively 1lb higher than that win. He is still very unexposed in this sphere and was a close 2nd on his seasonal re-appearance off level weights to a horse rated almost a stone higher so the break shouldn’t be an issue and the booking of James Bowen shows intent. Most of these look exposed and I expect him to go off fav and thought he was a cracking e/w bet.
    Milord Huntingdon Tuesday 18:20 1pt e/w-Price taken 16/1 Back to an extremely good mark given he is effectively 5lbs below his last win when he won comfortably. That win was over 3m1f and he has been largely kept to shorter. His last 3 runs with Hamill on board has also been his best ones. Looks to be a massive price. Should be able to race prominently. There is a concern with potential rain but he has placed on heavy so whilst would prefer good ground slightly softer won’t kill his chances.
    Andalusite Brighton Tuesday 17:25 1.5pt win-Price taken 11/2 Has an excellent record at the track and there is a realistic chance he will get an easy lead. Probert is one of the best riders at the track so the booking was interesting. He won LTO so we know he is in form.

  5. No Early Flat Maiden qualifiers again Tuesday, but I’ve a couple of picks in the 4.20 Leopardstown race, based on backing hurdlers & bumpers at Punchy after a top 3 finish at the Cheltenham Festival LTO.

    Which gives Whisky Sour & Mengli Khan

    Chris

  6. Josh…..no pressure but Cheltenham – profit, Aintree – profit, Ayr – profit, Fairyhouse – profit, now Punchestown….can you do the Grand Slam? have you already achieved it in the past?….no pressure though, you’ve done ok up to now but can you do it when the pressure is on?
    apologies, that’s a mean thing to say really, but you owe us all nothing…it doesn’t matter if you bomb out …You still deserve huge appraisal for for what you have achieved…a massive thanks for your tips so far….you are streets ahead of anyone else who has tipped in the four recent festivals.

    1. ha, I rarely play too deep in Ireland and at Punchy this week, and the result of the 4.55 prob indicates why!! I enjoy the pressure /challenge, but I lack a lot of knowledge on recall for this meeting as I rarely watch/play in Ireland at all.

  7. another nice day yesterday, Gulf of Poets – was a 2pt bet for me and i got 16.5 on bf so iv’e raided my accounts to fund my other passion my 1977 honda cb750 f2 sohc she’s getting a new choke cable,front mudguard , the wheels refurbed, a pro clean and some fresh heat resistant paint on the engine and exhaust , she thanks you very much 🙂 .

  8. Ludlow has some tasty races and i will also take the big handicap on also at Punchestown.
    15:05 Ludlow
    MUCKLE ROE 11/1 365
    Bolted up in a handicap chase at Warwick in May, returned from a 276-day break at Sandown in February but was beaten fifty lengths into sixth, he likes the course and i can only think now he is back at the track with Sam on board NTD saw something in that second to Ultimatum du roy..
    VIVACCIO 12/1 365
    Finished a close third over two miles here on his return from a 632-day break back in December. Aiden Coleman is once again booked to hopefully pull Vivaccio out of the doldrums and his last win was on this track! He has slipped down the weights and is maybe the forgotten horse in this conundrum.

    15:35 Ludlow
    GALACTIC POWER 12/1 gen
    Finished a distant third at Warwick last time out but that form has worked out well with the winner going very close in a Grade 3 handicap hurdle at Aintree earlier this month, that should be enough to see him home here at his favourite track.
    WILL O THE WEST 10/1 gen
    Henry Daly is a master at trying a horse at one thing and then bringing them back to what they know, he has tried chasing and now back on the smaller obstacles this dual hurdling winner with Dickie on board, should go close!

    16:55 Punchestown
    LOW SUN 12/1 gen
    Won a nineteen runner grade one handicap hurdle at Fairyhouse last week in decent style going away to win by over two lengths. Has to find a bit more here from an 8lb higher mark, but, he’s only had the five starts, so, is entitled to improve and the slightly less testing ground should not be a problem, having won a maiden hurdle on good at Bellewstown last August.
    LIGHT THAT 22/1 lads
    finished a close 2nd in this last year off a mark (126) as a 5yo he runs of the same mark this year,this year he will have a better chance of winning being a 6yo trends suggest,last run 100 days ago,so obviously being laid out for another attempt. JH always likes a crack at this and i think she was surprised this one didn’t win last year, year on wiser and more ready i believe.

  9. Morning Josh,

    The outstanding for continues, it seems to have coincided with me having joined the service… So I must take some of the credit… Right? No, seriously, congratulations, the hard work is clearly paying off and long may it continue.

    The main question I wanted to ask was about win Vs ew ‘tips’ and whether or not you have a breakdown of performance of them with a notional ew staking plan Vs your general win only approach and whether you see any merit to back selections ew above a certain price threshold. As always, the figures will no doubt tell the story, my own personal approach is such that I want to try and get something back when a horse goes close and at the prices sometimes that in itself can turn a decent profit, but i recognise that there may be lean spells and when the horses aren’t hitting the frame, you’re losing twice on the race.

    Cheers,
    Lee

    1. Morning Lee,
      Well you are more than welcome to take the credit haha.

      I can’t stand EW 🙂 Oh, did I say that out loud. That comment is very specific to me/my mindset and importantly how that impacts on how I attack a race… the likes of Nick and the team at SP2A I think would agree they have an EW mindset, finding horses with a chance of getting competitive… hence why their place SR will be higher and a return on the place element… I don’t have that mindset- or in any case, whatever approach I take, I don’t seem to find the same number of placed horses (generally, although as I stare at that 2018 notes total/places, maybe that is nonsense!)

      The main argument for EW is not profit IMO, it is about ‘staying in the game’ when losing runs hit…which is just fine, as it is better to be in the game than out of it. mentally, and with a correct bank, I can handle a losing run of 40, a couple of winners, and another losing run of 40. I mean I don’t think that has ever happened in 4 years with any of my tipping but it could.

      Profit.. I don’t have exact figures… I really should pay someone to record detailed results spreadsheets but that’s an aside.. (I always encourage people to keep their own results!.. on top of the results I do keep within Sect 2, free tips, and the advised strat links)…

      … but I did go through the free tips in 2016/17.. and 1 point win versus 1/2 EW was around a 80 point difference I think…+ 80 more for win only…

      I went through Festival Week this year, as posted previously… 1/2 EW on all tips was +76, 1 point win was +109… since 12th march on all Festival/Free tips, which are on +183 points or so, I think going 1/2 EW as opposed to 1 point win is a -60-80 point difference. I only care for profit/ROI on my tips really, and I’d rather have the +60-80 points more at my £20 pp 🙂

      If you look at the Notes 2018, 6/65,23p… i’m not sure whether going EW would be worth it profit wise. I mean you’d be getting a return more…and I don’t have the figures… but let’s say you bet 1/2 EW… the profit on winners would be slightly less, let’s say +5.5 or so (1/2 the current +8.5 points, + some place profit).. on the 17 further placed horses…average odds may be 10/1 and 1/5 odds… so for each of those bets you may win, on average, +0.5 (so +8.5) but of course getting your +8.5 points back also on the place side, so +17 returned… +5.5, so could well be +23.5 or so if that maths is correct (not my strong point, i’m a History/Pol grad!!) versus +8.5 we have at the moment…but that is in the context of an abnormal for me 35% win/place SR…and I haven’t had many winners, a few more 12s/16s+ jobs, and that will soon swing back to win only being best… but on 2018 to date on the Notes you are getting a return 35% of the time, which is average losing run per 1000 bets of 16, as opposed to my current 10% win SR, which can hit runs of -66 every 1000 bets, on average.

      I think that is correct, but i may well have got something awfully wrong there! But I am confident my all round tipping efforts, on the prices I play,and my ability to land enough biggies over time, is much more profitable to 1 point win than 1/2 EW, and that advice won’t be changing. But you are free to do as you please, obviously.

      Josh

      1. Josh,

        I think you’re right in so far as the ew element is not so much generating extra profit, but perhaps a means of losing less or at least sustaining a bank. An approach I often take is to load up the win side of a bet, so often I will be 1pt win and 0.5pt place, whereby the place returns are sufficient to cover the losing element of the bet assuming the horse places. Equally, you’re losing an additional 0.5 pts if the horse doesn’t place. I have always understood that 1pt win is usually more profitable in the long term providing that you’re happy to ride out the low points, but I wondered whether with the prices you’re playing at, they tipped the balance such that the place aspect at least paid for itself.

        Detailed records are something I have kept in fits and starts, racing it’s very time consuming on top of a full time job, let alone to think about keeping records as well. However, I do recognise their value but equally, I don’t need any sort of records to tell me just how well things are going on here at the moment.

        Cheers,
        Lee

  10. Took a look a the 4.50 2 year old race at Brighton. The most interesting one to me is the Channon horse Knockabout Queen. Channon is in decent form at the moment – 21% win rate the last 2 weeks. His two year olds are 2/10 6 places in April 18. He seems to target Brighton with his 2 year old’s at this time of year with 5 from 11 7 places strike rate at the track in the month of April. This one is also the only one to have had a run, which improves it’s chances even though that effort looks moderate at best. She was also foaled in Febuary, so should be more developed than most. The only slight negative is that the sire record over course and distance is 1 from 16, but at least it has had a win. I’ve gone a point win at 7/1.

    Good luck, hoping for another good festival week

  11. Two races that had runners that qualified for me then caught my eye plus a mention in each race.

    4:20 Punchestown – Whiskey Sour (18/1 WH, 16/1 gen) 1pt EW
    Out of all the Mullins and Elliot horses this one just seemed a little to high a price for me, if he comes in on price it would not surprise me. He was a surprise package when he won back in Dec but followed that up with solid efforts over his next 2 which really cemented his quality at this level. With some better ground today we could see further improvement today, trip should be no issue either. Getabird is a deserved fav but Whiskey Sour will be there at the end.
    Mention: Vision Des Flos (16/1 gen) 0.25pt EW

    6:40 Punchestown – Finians Oscar (11/1 Lads, 10/1 gen) 1pt EW
    A horse I’ve had in my tracker since the start of the NH season but his chasing has been nothing but fluent. Started the season with 2 nice wins then his chasing took a down turn, his jumping has been looking rather suspect but he confirmed his quality with a nice win LTO at Aintree when he outstayed his rivals. This step back up in trip should suit him as long as he jumps soundly.
    Mention: Monbeg Notorius (40/1 lads, 33/1 gen) 0.25pt EW

  12. Hi Josh
    Just a minor point, sure it’s probably a typo and you will pick it up in the results, Valseur Du Granville should be S2 (says S3) as well as the other ratings noted.
    Thanks for the excellent work, amazing stuff

    1. Hi Kev, ah yes, typo! Section 1 + Jumps + 10/1-25/1… so yep S2 (or S2A when 16/1-25/1 as subset)… corrected, do keep those eagle eyes peeled, i try and avoid such basic errors bu when so much going on/long days, it happens.
      Cheers
      Josh

  13. What would everyone’s selections be for a lucky31 ? Have a little mini contest between us, see who can make the most.

    Good luck lads, great site this.

    1. I assumed you’d be on Gerry! Well done. Those strategies needed that, and they could do with a few more 12s+ going in! Good for PB angle to get one also, it is a decent starting point, if not one to back with systematic confidence.. I whizzed passed him a bit too quickly this morning, for tipping purposes…how he was 12s in a 6 runner race, where you could pick holes in all his rivals (and him) I have no idea,but i say that in hindsight.. a break to refresh, Paddy in saddle, (although Heskin injured), stays further so likely would be up in the van, weakest race contested for some time,handicap mark down. And lightly raced for age. missed one there, for Section 2 purposes anyway, but can’t be greedy!

  14. Shocking finish to the novice chase at Punchestown.
    Townend will have some explaining to do but there has to be a big ban for that.
    At least Martin did well out of it 🙂

    1. Yes, did it each way at 22/1 BOG. Sometimes randomness plays its part. Just ask the roulette wheel when it spins the same number 3 times in a row! I also had Un De Sceaux each way at 7/1 bog but did not do the double. Not my work, a tipster I follow.

      Sometimes it just happens. No idea what Townend was thinking there?

  15. On another note William Hill were promoting an enhanced odds treble on Getabird, Douvan and Monalee.
    Zero winners hmmm!

    Maybe a ready made laying system of short prices with no work involved.
    I’ll Keep an eye on these enhanced offers to see if they are profitable single lays.

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