Nothing from me today.
I was due a poor day yesterday and got it – both on the selection front and on the analysis. It’s always irritating when a 10/1-16/1 shot goes in that I didn’t really consider. I have no problems with the Seldom Inn bet and would do it again if looking at that race. He just didn’t run his race and it was clear from about 2 fences in I wouldn’t have anything to cheer. (possibly just hated whatever the ground was!) Maybe I was a tad too blinkered on him and should have stuck to my 1 point win instincts, not least as I may have been more willing to throw another into mix, although I wasn’t close to the winner so not sure it would have been him! I was a bit too dismissive of the Sue Smith form, 0/27,3p or so in the 30 days prior to yesterday and I thought they’d gone off the boil a tad. Clearly not! He was unproven on heavy,(although from limited tries), on a career high mark, and was 0/8,2p in C2 going into the race – I think all of that combined swayed me, and the fact he was rather poor when last seen. Thinking back now… I suppose you can excuse any horse a poor run in a race like the Eider and in the race before that he’d hacked up, a career best. You could also make a case through a process of elimination – I was bullish enough in taking on the 5 that were shorter than Seldom Inn, and clearly should have given him some more thought, but that’s said with hindsight and these winners always make more sense after the event. I know I didn’t consider the horse in much depth, (an error) certainly swayed by the trainer form. But with any horse that’s a double figure price maybe I should be more forgiving. I can live with that one, just about, esp as he was 10s when looking, but a few things I could have done better there/thought about differently. But, I was due a dud and there will be plenty more 🙂
7 Responses
I wouldn`t beat yourself up too much Josh, today is another day and really, like i said, would the meeting have gone ahead if it wasn’t that we`ve had not much turf racing over the last week, “out of form” stables may be something we need to be wary of though, as there has not been much turf NH racing over the last week and the “Beast from the East” also not helping, plus all racing in between has been run on bottomless ground, apart from Cheltenham, what other “form”, do we have to pick from?
I for one am not really looking at trainers in form, will just look what they have done in previous years..
Jockeys, i believe may be a better proposition to look at,(in the short term), as they have still been told to go out in all weathers and ride….Harry Cobden definitely springs to mind..
something to ponder on?
Oh yea I’m not beating myself up too much haha – not with this one, but any horse that wins a 3m+ chase at 8s+ that I haven’t tipped annoys me and there is always something I could have done better/thought about differently. I like to drag myself over hot coals. A form of post race therapy!
You make some very valid and logical points about recent trainer form in the context of what’s been happening in recent weeks. It certainly isn’t something to be dogged about which I fear I was yesterday- esp if you build any concerns into your assessment of price etc.
Probably no consolation Josh, but I’ve always found it hard to work out if Sue Smith is in form, out of form or a bit of both.
When the sun shines over Ilkley Moor and Dick Hudson’s is open early….then you know they have one ready
E 2.35 – Morianour @ 14/12 e/w
Normally gives a good a/c and no reason why it can’t at least be in the frame
mike
SEA OF MYSTERY. 3:25 carlisle.
A well bred recent acquisition from the j oxx yard to the skelterns could of got 25/1 last night 18/1 at the moment with 365. Breeding suggests this is better than what it’s shown so far.
The Masters – Bubba and Speith still looking OK for a place (8 Places paid) today. Rory is an artist but blows hot and cold and can win by a few or end up in the bushes.
Tipsters – Well done to SP2A finding the 16/1 winner yesterday. The offer on Bet Alchemist is also still on offer and is worth taking up. The tipster I told blog users about two weeks ago is still putting up winners. He had a 28/1 winner yesterday. I know some of you signed up to his pay as you go offer. Details at mcolwell1959@aol.com .
Good luck.