Free Daily Post: 23/03/18 (complete)

12/1 poke + write up


(2016: +75 points ; 2017 18/185, +79.5; 2018 5/50,15p, +3, Festival week 2018: +92)

2.30 Newbury 

Church Hall – 1 point win – 12/1 (gen) UP*

Awful round of jumping…well an odd round, fine at some, rubbish at others. In the end that took it’s toll, in part maybe out of comfort zone jumping at that pace/lack of class. The winner as below no total shock and I’ve got him wrong at 8s. I didn’t spend any time considering that this may be the best ground he’s raced on for a few runs (clearly has dried out a tad I think) and the yard was a bit iffy when last seen. Mark dropped a fair bit, easier race. Ah yes and TT removed for first time in an age, as noted by a member who tipped him! Clearly got him wrong and 8/1+ winners in these races that I haven’t tipped always annoy me. I would have tipped CH whatever, and in truth I’d have been more likely to pick Halo Moon if I backed another. Moving on. 

(Halo Moon 3rd and Bally Longford WON 8/1>5/1 made up my list of possibles I think, at the prices) 

I think this one is worth a dabble here at double figure odds. He has clearly been hard to train but fitness shouldn’t be a problem if they want him spot on. It could be that he is best fresh anyway, certainly based on that Lingfield canter two starts ago where he somewhat bolted up and never really came off the bridle. You won’t see many handicap chase winners win like that, even if it was a weak enough contest – although the second and third have won races since, so at least there was some depth. This is just the horses 3rd chase start and despite his age is still in the ‘could be anything’ category over fences. He made an early error LTO and then UR at the fence after, so he may need to put that behind him, but given his profile and his odds I’m more than happy to roll the dice. Emma Baker clearly likes to trainer chasers and take her time with them. Her handicap hurdle record isn’t great but she is 13/76,26p with her handicap chasers in the last 5 years. Jamie B is 2/9 on all her handicappers. She is also 3/16,7p with all handicap chasers returning 60+ days in the period also. Given every horse in this race has a question or five, I wanted one at a price. He should track any pace and if he can get into a rhythm may out-run these odds. This extra couple of furlongs is an unknown, but as with yesterday’s winner there is a chance he improves further for it. Again, when you have unknowns, you want a price. He is related to the odd stayer and wasn’t stopping at Lingfield. It may be he isn’t up to this level but there is only one way to find out! (oh, and given I class him as ‘unexposed’ I don’t really care for the rise in his handicap mark, in the context of price- jumping/wellbeing/profile are more important for me with chasers than handicap marks, especially when we don’t know what their ceiling is) 

Of the rest…

Given his form the fav is probably the right fav…but he has gone up 8lb…which I am not too bothered about but I am given he is 5/2 – the handicapper may not have got him yet but it’s a short price to take to find out. He also goes LH for the first time over fences which is a question. He may be fine, but in this price range you don’t want many unknowns, and he has to prove his stamina. No shock if he continues his progression but happy to take on at the odds. 

The rest are a much of a muchness really… Lavelle’s horse doesn’t like winning chases- 0/11,3p, and as such his odds are cramped enough for my liking. As are the two horses that arrive here on the back of two Ps. Maybe Bally Longford or Mystical Knight will bounce back- the race has an odd feel – but I was struggling to work out why they should. Clearly if the Tizzard horse could repeat that Cheltenham run from earlier in the season he may win this well enough, and maybe 8s is worth paying change to find out. But I thought single figures was short enough given his apparent lack of well-being. 

Morning Reggie has questions in the context of his price for me, happy to leave, although another with the ability to take this. I was happy to leave the rest….that leaves one more..

Halo Moon… who I thought was interesting and may be worth a saver given he arrives in form and was going forward at the line the last day. He hasn’t run a bad race since his return from injury and just being in form is a positive in this line up. I doubt he will be too far away but he wasn’t 12/1 and he felt about the right price to my eyes. But, value is always in the eye of the beholder. 

So, it has an open feel to it but happy to roll the dice with the selection. Maybe the Curtis or Tizzard horse leave me thinking what if, or indeed another one mentioned. 

GL with any bets 




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11 Responses

  1. Football – Netherlands v England – the banker is that beer sales in Amsterdam will rocket and the same old songs sang by England fans. That nice Mr Southgate seems a cautious man to me. And what with all those substitutions that get made in such matches, I do not think that there will be many goals in this one. So under 2.5 goals seems good. In the same vein I also like low goals in Germany v Spain, so the same bet.

    Golf – Paul Casey won again and should progress to the knockout stage (22/1 originally). Sadly Matt Fitzpatrick did not play well (originally 100/1) did not play well and is on his way home. Jason Day was going well yesterday then suddenly went to pieces (suggested at 10/1). However if he wins today he may well progress to the knockout stage.

  2. AW BETS
    1.35 Ramblow
    1.35 First Experience
    3.50 Fearsome
    Thank you all over the past 7 weeks or so for your kind comments.
    Kevin’s comments yesterday reminded me that new people will be looking at Josh’s website so just a reminder you must have a betting bank would suggest 50 times your stake for there will be losing runs,and in some cases there can be 4 bets in one race and i am prepared to make a small loss in that race if the Fav wins for on many occasions the outside will win which you have not backed.

    1. Two nice winners yesterday.

      If you can stand any more kind comments I’ll make some.

      Thank you! Owe you a few drinks for posting.

        1. That thesaurus I bought to praise Josh gets its first outing for you Colin after that brilliant winner.

          Profuse appreciation!

          Pub details please…

    2. Been away on the Camino and first day back fittest selection a winner. Great stuff, sorry fir bokking Stenson!

  3. Nav 2.25 – Mick the Boyo e/w @16’s
    Not sure what, if any, problem LTO but has conditions to at least make a race of it and seemingly way overpriced.

    Nav 5.15 – Where Eagles Dare @ 10’s
    Meade can ready debutants for the mud and with Nina on board looks a generous price.

    New 4.45 – Uncle Jimmy e/w @ 16-14’s
    Quite a versatile, lightly raced newcomer to Hunters. Conditions fine and if running close to potential has to have an excellent chance.


  4. Josh well done on your 10/1 winner yesterday
    as you say the whole game is a matter of opinion.

    But at the end of the day any opinion is worthless
    if the records show that you are a consistent loser.

    your records clearly show although your opinion is wrong 90% of the time
    that a 10% strike rate at the prices you play at show year after year a consistent profit.

    better a profit on a 10% rate than your opinion be right 60% of the time and a loss is made.

    What I find when you have a strike rate at 10% is you need 100% confidence in your methods
    or you can do silly things when you are in a bad run.

    Anyone following a 10% analyst needs one thing above all other
    Faith because when the 90% stack up in spells it undermines their belief

    The one thing I like about your work is the fact you are completely open and above board
    no false claims or unproven data.

    or massive trumpeting at one big winner which is all to your credit
    your methods remind me of Pricewise but does anyone know
    the year profit and loss on Tom Seagals selections
    I don’t but we hear all the bluster with front page headlines when he hits a big winner

    I think the Post should be as transparent as your site if they did then no one could gripe.

    Everyone has an opinion and bookies love the opinion of casual players as they are usually based on very flimsy evidence.

    I Always like my own opinion not because I know more than anyone else
    but if I am wrong I have only myself to blame but if you take others opinions
    for gospel then you get cross if it isn’t bomb proof

    I am now trying to be opened minded rather than dogmatic, listen to others ideas
    and then think if I think they are valid or not rather than being blinkered that my opinion
    is the only way to go

    I want to know if my opinions are worth knowing
    so I have set a standard level stake
    and opened a spread sheet to record every bet with details rather than just
    profit or loss.
    A tab for each sport and notes to review later to see my best areas

    I love posting to your site because on a lot of forums it just becomes a
    dog fight with everyone slagging each other off

    I was very impressed the other day when we disagreed
    its what it all about.

    There are all sorts on the forums which is just what you need
    from top pros to guys new to the game.

    I think a lot of it is down to personality rather than opinions
    I lack the faith to back a 10% strike rate on someone else work
    even though they show consistent profits.
    and haven’t got the work ethic to find enough big price horses to be a winner at 10%
    but I don’t think anyone would argue that what you do you do well

    1. Nothing wrong with 10%. I am full time and work to 12.5% of turnover as annual profit, which is high compared to others.

    Once again I have logged on too late and have missed a winner :0(
    Never mind, I will get this right eventually :0)

    Has anyone got strong opinions of the Lincoln and/or Spring Mile tomorrow ?

    Thanks, Kevin

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