Free Daily Post: 22/03/18 (complete)

TIPs x2 + 14 min video preview

TIPS

(2016: +75 points ; 2017 18/185, +79.5; 2018 5/49,15p, +4, Festival week 2018: +92)

4.00 Chep

Looks Like Power – 1 point win – 9/1 (gen) WON 10/1 

Firebird Flyer – 1 point win – 18/1 (betfs/pp/betstars/BV) 16/1 (gen) UP

Danger horses/shortlist: Lac Sacre / Streets of Promise 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

38 Responses

  1. Very keen to take on Wales Today in China
    they are odds on and I think they should be 11/10

    they are without Ramsey,Ledley Ampadu,Lawrence,Taylor, Ward and Dummett
    and Bale who had a 15 hour trek to get there and will only play a cameo role

    They also have other players carrying knocks so I am not sure that Wales will be firing on all cylinders
    China failed to qualify for the world cup and lost two friendlies in November
    4-0 to Colombia and 2-0 to Serbia but they were with weekend teams

    they played in the recent eef tournament in japan
    drawing with North and South Korea and only losing 2-1 to the hosts Japan

    Managed by the great M lippi they look to be improving all the time
    and I think he is starting to have an impact.
    With 5 recent games I think their team work and understanding will be good

    Wales have flown 6000 miles for this mini tournament
    and in March when the European season is in full swing
    I can’t see them busting a gut in a friendly Tournament
    Giggs first match in charge will see a settling down period
    and although their class may see them win
    at 8/11 they look way to short

    my book is
    China 3/1 draw 11/4 Wales 11/10
    so at 1.73 on betfair have laid Wales

    1. Yes that would be my bet but not a fan of friendlies. China is a long way and the food is not like Chinese food in this country. You get odd stuff for breakfast in the hotels. If Wales were up for it they would beat China but I doubt that they are? The Chinese will be up for it and be well organised and will stick to the plan.

      Good luck.

        1. china 0 wales 6
          the Chinese just being completely over powered

          The intensity of the premier is just to much for the home team
          lesson learned

  2. AW BETS
    Wolverhampton
    3.50 Gone With The Wind
    4.25 New Abbey Angel
    Chelmsford
    5.45 Malaysian Boleh
    7.45 Kion

  3. Hi Josh
    Can’t watch your vid (at work) but I have noted your tips.
    I looked at this race last night and dismissed both your selections. Opinions eh 🙂
    Looks like Power to me runs out of steam and for that reason can’t see it relishing nearly 3m
    Firebird, again to me, looks on the downgrade.

    But I strongly fancy the dangers you’ve highlighted.

    To me Streets of Promise in a class 4 is very strong.
    Back to OR113 and in a C4, first time in 2 years, looks ideal.
    This is a much weaker race to the ones it’s being competing it.

    Lac Sacre – close 2nd in a C3 lto. Horse in 3rd won a C2 nto.
    Horse in 5th won a C4 nto.
    Form looks good.
    Top rated by GG speed and fav for Hc Ch race, combined = +30% sr

    I’ll have those 2 instead.

    Good luck all.

    1. It certainly is a game of opinions!

      Looks Like Power…Bar not staying/seeing out trip in recent runs (which may be the case and as such 1 point loaned back) the other theory with this type is that they have been running out of their comfort zone over shorter and when the race hots up their legs can’t quite go quick enough…in essence they are going flat out for longer and this ‘may’ be why they appear to flatten out. Possible. We shall soon find out. With that sort unproven over a trip I want a price and I get that.

      If the Scudamore horse wins I’ll be cursing haha. It was between the three,punting wise. I think she just looks out of form. Unless she has just come to herself in last month (which isn’t impossible and as a mare may have just ‘bloomed’ with the odd bit of sun on back and milder weather..trainer red hot also) I didn’t think a drop back to C4 was a reason for a revival. We’re she 14s+ may have been more tortured! I have a saver on to cover my other two,and leave some beer money!

      May simply be a case of going with the in form horse from in form yard proven in conditions…there is a reason the fav is the fav/4/1 in this but I thought that felt the right price. Cue winning like a 6/4 shot!
      GL

      1. The great thing is Josh that between your 2 main picks, the ones to watch, Ian’s picks and Nick’s tentative selection we have half the field covered. Cue Saroque bolting up for a re-juvenated Venetia!

        Cheers

        Ben

      2. Well I was close 🙂
        Halved in price Streets of Promise so I wasn’t wrong in the thought process. Tiny moral victory!.
        Of course I backed your tip too but left out Firebird so all’s well.

        1. Yep, much better run from Streets of Promise, much more like it. If she comes out in next month you’d be interested, price allowing… make all somewhere in a small field.
          Josh

  4. GOLF – In the World match Play Jason Day won his first match and should win his match today to progress to the knockout stages. He has won it twice before and is currently available at 10/1, 4 places. Our pick Paul Casey also won his first match and should win again today to progress. Unfortunately Matt Fitzpatrick fluffed his lines on the final holes yesterday and after leading his match most of the round, lost on the final hole and so has it all to do today.

    1. Excellent stuff, on at 10/1 and so another 9 points to add to the pot. I know that you are on your way to your stately pile in Suffolk but have a drink on me when you get there.

      1. Haha I wish it was a stately pile! Have to make do with the box room these days! Seeing a good friend later who is on leave from the forces so I’ll be sure to have a drink or three! Cheers

  5. well done josh
    i am still watching ,reading ,learning and profiting from a far !!
    thanks
    brian
    aka shirtless
    aka lord george bentinck
    🙂

  6. Excellent effort young Josh again WELL DONE.

    Dear old Paddy could not quite give another Oscar winning performance and probably could have done without Fences being omitted and Bears has definitely gone off the rails!

    Certainly feels a bit like a “changin of the seasons” with Donny on Saturday and some “unusual
    results” over the Jumps especially in the small field races, time to start getting the Flat boys ready and to start thinking “summer jumping” me thinks; but still plenty proper NH to go at Aintree and Punchestown.

    Been filming today for BBC Sport Relief and a chance a few clips of something bigger may be on BBC Midlands Today this evening and if BBC don’t apply strict advertising codes may be a tipping service and your favourite Racing to Profit Blog getting a name check too….

  7. I’m sure you promised us all a massive downturn in results after Cheltenham Josh?
    So where is it then?
    You keep churning out winners like there’s no tomorrow without a hint of a downturn, you should stop making these ridiculous predictions and get on with what you say your good at!

    1. haha – think in the blogging game they call it ‘managing expectations’ – when I am ‘in the zone’ I tend to be in it- I must be, I’ve just tipped a winner in the members’ club, and they are rare over sticks!!

      1. I know – I backed it … thanks very much! The excellent reasoning in your write up convinced me he’d go close and that’s what we’re after at the end of the day isn’t it? A bloody good run for our money with a sprinkling of profitable winners now and again!

    1. Well, remember these weeks haha- there may be a time your reaching for the thesaurus for less complimentary words! much appreciated.
      Josh

  8. Thanks for all of your thanks gents, hopefully you’ll get bored of doing so soon enough as that will mean even more points in the pot haha, support appreciated as always.
    Josh

  9. Hi Josh

    Well done with the Chepstow race ( I only found your site after the result ) gutted.
    The AW tips so far – Unplaced / 2nd / Won ( at a good price ).
    I`m only sending this because I just don`t get your final tip in the 7-45 @ Chelm`d ?
    Don`t get me wrong, it could win, but too many unknowns for me ( I wouldn`t touch the race ).
    If i was forced to have a bet, I would probably lay the fav but not be shocked if it won.
    Keep up the good work, it looks like you put a lot of effort in and i am sure your followers appreciate it.
    Will you be analysing the Spring Mile / Lincoln Handicap ?
    Well Done again today, irrespective of the 7-45 :0)
    Kevin

  10. Apologies Josh

    I have just noticed that the All Weather tips were not yours ( they are Colins ) :0(

    Kevin

    1. Hi Kevin,
      Thanks for stopping by.
      You can see my Tipping results above and use that info as you please in terms of impacting how you bet them, if at all. Some will back them no questions. Others will use my thoughts to influence their own. I am wrong 8 to 9 times every 10 or so but I only care for profit.

      Colin..has pedigree and has only been posting his own personal AW tips in the last few weeks. He’ll do a weekly update/monthly I’m sure. He has his own strategy so by all means question each horse but I wouldnt too much haha. You can judge the results and then very much decide to back them or not. Or keep a watching brief. And by all means put up your own fancies. The more the merrier.
      Josh

  11. 3 respected tipsters and normally excellent form students tipped 5 horse between them in the 4pm and none of them picked the winner. Well done old bean.

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