Festival Master Post: HERE>>> (inc the stats report/plan for week/betting bank)
Remember you can track a blogs progress by looking in the title above.. it did say (hold) for ‘holding’, that will progress through (upd1) ‘update 1!’, (upd2) etc, all the way through to (Complete) – at which point no new content from me will be added. I use that same approach for all blog posts.
The big day is here. A reminder that I am using a 25 point bank for this week, but of course staking is entirely up to you. As is my want I tend to go on the nose rather than EW, but that’s just me…and at this meeting is probably foolhardy. But, as I write, and until I change, that’s how I play the game. IF following my tips – you follow them. All the way through until the 20/1 winner of the last race! 🙂 You should be prepared to lose all 25 points and that should determine your staking level. If you only wish to lose £50, you bet £2.50 per point, £100 – £5 per point, and so on. This week is about cheering the odd winner, having some fun, not losing too much and with any luck actually making a profit. It’s tough. It’s slog. It’s a long week. Never every be put off by price. With that said, let’s crack on… (oh I have added an ‘Others’ section under each write up, section 4, for interest)
All tips now complete, there will be no more ‘official tips’, plenty of mentions in the write ups no doubt! 7 points outlay day 1.
Vintage Clouds – 2 points win – 10/1 (gen) 3rd 7/1
Shantou Flyer – 1 point win – 20/1 (bet365) 16/1 (gen) 18/1 (in places) 2nd (neck) 14/1 (ahhh)
Knight of Noir – 1/2 point win – 25/1 (gen) (could take chance BFSP,be surprised if price crashes but educated guesswork) UP
Ms Parfois – 1 point win – 7/1 (gen) 13/2 (plenty) 2nd
Duel At Dawn – 1/2 point win – 16/1 (gen) UP
Testify – 1 point win – 12/1 (bet365/Boyle/BV) 10/1 (gen) UP
Mr Whitaker – 1 point win – 9/1 (betfS/PP/BV) 8/1 (gen) WON 9/1>13/2
+3 / +2 on day
3.Micro Systems/Angles: Qualifiers
I would advise using the following as ‘starting points’ as opposed to backing everything systematically. if you use them at all! 🙂 . Many of these angles are unproven as ‘systems’ as such. But you may wish to use the info in any of your own thinking etc. All research can be found in the report above.
Micro Systems x5
O O Seven (micro 3, 16/1<)
Ballyhill (m3, 16/1<)
Any Second Now (m2, m5, 25/1<)
Conrad Hastings (m2, m5, 25/1<)
Demi Sang (m1, m5, 25/1<)
Tycoon Prince (m5, 25/1<)
‘Notes’ (Owners, Trainers/Jockeys)
The following horses hit at least one stat from the report above..these are found manually and at some point during the week I will miss something, with any luck it isn’t a big priced winner, i’ll try my best not to!
3.30 Buveur D’Air
4.50 – No Comment (9/1<)
5.30 – Any Second Now (9/1<) / Demi Slang (9/1<)
5.30 – Tycoon Prince (16/1<)
2.50 – Ramses De Teillee / Eamon An Cnoic (both PIPE, 16/1<)
1.30 – Paloma Blue (‘micro’ as per notes)
5.30 – De Plotting Shed (20/1<)
1.30 – Shoal Bay
2.50 – Ramses De Teillec
5.30 – Le Rocher (33/1<)
1.30 – Sharjah
3.30 – Melon (20/1<)
4.TIPS: Race Previews (inc shorlists)
2.50 – Ultima Handicap Chase
Vintage Clouds – 2 points win – 10/1 (gen)
Shantou Flyer – 1 point win – 20/1 (bet365) 16/1 (gen) 18/1 (in places)
Knight of Noir – 1/2 point win – 25/1 (gen) (could take chance BFSP,be surprised if price crashes but educated guesswork)
Rarely do I pull out the 2 pointer and certainly not at this meeting..as I pondered I doubted whether I would be as bullish again on a horse this week…so I though i’d back up that view with the 2 points. We all know he will go too fast into the first fence and unseat Cook! It does feel a bit too good to be true. He just ticks every box really. He hits my profile below, falling down on ‘one of those’ stats that I shouldn’t get too hung up on (number of runs in G3s)…certainly when it’s heavy for the first time in 29 years and my race stats may be useless! I thought Cook would be aggressive on him and have him up ‘in the van’, either leading or tracking any other pace. The theory is that he will relish race conditions and the slower pace they should go will help his jumping. He is a consistent horse, winning or placing in 16 of his 21 races to date. Smith is in decent enough form and Cook’s confidence around here will be boosted after the win of Definitly Red at the last meeting. (as I write I see that Alex Hammond has tipped him…oh FFS!! Where is that lay button?!.. I jest, she does tip the odd winner??) The horse is in decent form- he hasn’t run a bad race all season really, and he does have track form. He ran well enough in this race last year. Yes he UR a couple out when staying on again, but up to that point he had run well, and in general, jumped ok. That was on much quicker ground and they were always going a stride quick for him. He was upsides three from home. He always seems to respond well for pressure. I just couldn’t see an excuse here for a big run. If he jumps fine and runs his race I’d be surprised if he were not in the top 4. He stays further and if leading as they turn for home I’m not sure anything will get passed him. We shall see. Fingers crossed he can get into a rhythm on the front end..if he does i’ll have plenty to cheer as this race progresses.
I threw the stats out the window here somewhat as based on history he is too exposed. However, with young Jame’s Bowen’s claim he is on his last winning mark, the jockey knows him, and he has been very consistent on his last few starts. He arrives fit and in form. And he relishes this hill. He has run here 6 times and won/placed on 4 of them. Twice this season he has ran on late over shorter here, in heavy. At times this season he has looked to be crying out for 3m+ around here. He ran well enough the last day in a small field non handicap at Kelso and at least held his form. He gets the first time visor here which I also thought was interesting. He ran well in first time CP a couple of starts back. Bar an accident I thought he wouldn’t be far away and he would relish this climb to the line. This could be the year that it pays to keep onside the odd ‘been there and done it horse’ – the more exposed handicapper. Given his course form, his current form, the distance move and headgear, I thought 20s may be a shade too big. I do like to think of ‘the story’ around a race also, and a first Festival win for trainer/jockey would be a decent one.
Knight of Noir…
A poke for sure but he hits the ‘shortlist’ below and of the bigger priced ones looked the most interesting to my eye. This is his first run for M Blake who has a good record with new recruits to the yard and can ready them after a break…well he can ready hurdlers after a break, no win as yet with chasers but from a small sample. He is unexposed over fences and there could be more to come at some point. There are bits and pieces of form in softer ground and he has run here before over hurdles. It could be his jumping doesn’t hold, he doesn’t handle heavy, and he simply isn’t good enough…but there was just something niggling at me with him and given his price, and what could be a decent price on the exchange, I thought it best to throw 1/2 a point at him. I can live with losing it much more than the pain of seeing him romp home, unbacked/tipped. A proper poke, but there will be some shocks this week, and maybe he will be one of them!
Those horses that I may find mildly irritating were they to win, having not been tipped : Ramses De Teillee / Minella Daddy / Cogry
Using the following ‘winning profile’: moving up in distance 0.5f+ / 0-3 chase runs at Chelt / 0-2 handicap wins / 0-3 chase wins / 0-1 handicap chase wins
Using these stats,…
‘Shortlist’ (final): Ramses De Teillee / Knight of Noir / Coo Star Sivola WON / Minella Daddy / Eamon An Cnoic / Vintage Clouds 3rd / O O Seven
That profile very much focuses on how exposed or unexposed they are… if looking at the ‘class’ pointers… 0-2 runs in G3 (class) (that removes Vintage Clouds although within that winning profile above such stats are 0/11,1p) and Did Not run in a G3 LTO (that removes O O Seven)
Ramses/Coo Star/Mineall all ran RH LTO which has been a negative in this race, but could just be one of those stats. No 6YO has won in 10 years but only 15 have tried, 3 have placed. Horses that hadn’t run at Cheltenham are 0/31,5p in last 10 runnings, a slight neg for Ramses D T/Minella D/Eamon An Cnoic
4.50 NH Chase
Ms Parfois – 1 point win – 7/1 (gen) 13/2 (plenty)
Duel At Dawn – 1/2 point win – 16/1 (gen)
Ms Parfois… she his plenty of stats here and her track form tipped me over the edge. She is in superb form, stays 3m well, I have little concern over heavy, she gallops and she could well be the best jumper of a fence in this race, on what they have done to date. She is ‘this season’s horse’ really and it can pay to stick with such types and her trainer hasn’t had a bad time of it this season either. I was pretty certain that, bar a BD, she would complete. She has a decent enough jockey on and I thought she may just keep going when many in here may have given up. She also gets a 7lb mares allowance which could be worth plenty in the climb after the last.
Due At Dawn…another who hits plenty of the stats,(limited that they are) his trainer is in form, he arrives here after a short break and does just look an out and out galloper. I thought he was worth a crack at this trip and his form ties in with MP above. If she doesn’t stay, he could well pick up the pieces. It is 1/2 a point because his jockey is yet to ride a chase winner…gulp. He has ridden a couple of hunter chase winners but it is a concern- this race is as much about who is riding as the horse. He is a decent young pilot and deserves to take his chance. This one may well not be good enough but at 16s I thought worth a stab. He could just keep plodding.
Of the rest..well Mullins or Elliot could take this… Jury Duty seemed short enough given there are some stamina doubts in this ground. Well, stamina is an unknown for most in here, but I didn’t like the way he tied up in heavy the last day. It could be they left plenty to work on and he does have a superb pilot. He hasn’t raced here over fences and that did tip me in favour of MP. Maybe 6s is fair given connections but I wasn’t jumping up and down to wade in. The same can be said of Mossback whose price doesn’t seem overly generous either. Rathvinden is interesting but is 10 and arrives here on the back of a BD and UR. Jumping is a niggle although I suspect he may run a big race. His first go over fences around here also. Sizing Tennessee- i had concerns over his jumping in this sort of race, with this many fences, in heavy, over this far. Something niggled at me with him. He has beaten Duel At Dawn before but the hope is that the ground/trip/more experience since that run, may allow him to overturn that form.
Those horses that I may find mildly irritating were they to win, having not been tipped : Rathvinden / Shades of Midnight / Sizing Tennessee
Shortlist: (i have looked again using last 8 years stats when this became a conditions race) If looking at OR same or higher than LTO, 2+ wins in non handicaps, ran in Non-handicap LTO…
Jury Duty / No Comment / Mossback / Ms Parfois / Keeper Hill / Pylon The Pressure / Duel At Dawn / Shades of Midnight
Ignoring the OR stats, which isn’t so significant applied to the qualifiers from the next two stats above, adds… Raathvinden / Impulsive Star / Robin of Locksley
Placing in 3-5 chases is a positive: Jury Duty/ Ms Parfois / Duel At Dawn / Rathvinden
Within that set of stats those with 2-4 runs at track are 5/8: Ms Parfois / Rathvinden
3-5 chase runs is also a positive: Jury Duty / Ms Parfois / Keeper Hill / Duel At Dawn / Shades of Midnight
Looking at that lot combined, my eyes, stats wise, are most drawn to: Jury Duty / Ms Parfois 2nd/ Duel At Dawn / Rathvinden WON
5.30 Close Brothers Novices Hncp
Testify – 1 point win – 12/1 (bet365/Boyle/BV) 10/1 (gen)
Mr Whitaker – 1 point win – 9/1 (betfS/PP/BV) 8/1 (gen)
Well he hits some of the pointers (although they should be treated with caution) below, arrives in form, and has a win in ‘Haydock Heavy’ – he looks sure to relish conditions here, McCain continues in form, and it would be a fitting win to mark his recent resurgence. He has only been winning in small fields and his jumping will come under pressure, but there is a chance WK is aggressive on him also, and he should be in the right spot. He hasn’t done much wrong in his chase career to date and deserves to take his chance here. I thought he may just be keeping on when plenty have given up. The track is an unknown over fences, as it is for many in here, which is why I wanted a double figure price. He is in form, he has winning chase experience, he handles heavy (and this could be cut up come this race) the yard is in form.
His course form was the main way in really. He just looks solid here. Heavy is an unknown, maybe he will flounder, but I thought he was worth a dart. He looks like he stays well and we know he handles this hill. It was soft enough when he won here the last day and he did it comfortably enough to my eye. Hughes takes over which could be a positive…there is a chance they go too hard in this and his creeping style may be ideal for how this race plays out. The horse needs to be delivered late enough also. Hopefully he runs exactly like our winner in this last year.
Of the rest..
well, it’s a bit of a lottery and you can make a case for plenty, as you can with most handicaps here!
I will mention Le Rocher.. he may be worth a tickle, not least because he hits the Scudamore angle above and the horse relishes heavy. I haven’t been totally convinced with his jumping but if he gets around he will handle the ground better than most. No forlorn hope, although the fences did concern me. Ballyhill is interesting, if we can put that last run down to the yard form at the time. He has track form, although his jumping can be sticky…but I keep thinking Nigel may have a good week..given plenty of his relish a muddy climb to the line and seem to keep on galloping. He hits one of the micros above. He could just be out of form. Those two may be the most interesting of the bigger priced ones to my eyes.
I was happy to take on the two Irish horses at the top of the market given neither had won over fences as yet. One or both may be thrown in but in that context I was happy to leave them.
Those horses that I may find mildly irritating were they to win, having not been tipped: Le Rocher / Report To Base / Ballyhill / Rather Be 2nd / Demi Sang (it’s that sort of race!)
Shortlist: Not many race stats to go on here and i’m not too sure how useful they will be… looking at those with 3-4 chase runs, and aged 5-7…
Any Second Now / Rather Be 2nd / Divine Spear / Mister Whitaker WON / Testify / Report To Base
The age stats are not the strongest really (wins for 8+ and the place stats decent enough) Ignoring the age stat… other also with 3/4 chase runs (which is a 9/10 stat) De Plotting Shed / Livelovelaugh / Tycoon Prince / Rocklander / Markov / Le Rocher
5.Any Other Thoughts
NOTE: PLEASE only post Festival related comments under this post. There will be the usual members’ daily posts for all things non-festival/the usual, including I suspect All-Weather thoughts from Ken and Colin! 🙂
VIDEO: DAY 1
You said you wanted videos in the 7-20 minute range… drum roll… this one is 31 minutes! 🙂 I really did try.. anyway, I have flicked through the tips plus why I don’t like most of the others in said races…and the odd other musing…hopefully something of interest… i’ll endeavour to me more succinct tomorrow but it’s hard in 16+ runner races!
Other Day 1 Musings
My thoughts on the other races do not amount to much, but those that looked interesting enough to me..
1.30 – Kalashnikov / First Flow / Paloma Blue
2.10 – Saint Calvados
4.10 – La Bague Au Roi EW (although bar a fall the fav wins doesn’t she?)
That’s it for Day 1, i’d better get cracking on Day 2.
As always, Good Luck with any bets,