Festival 2018: DAY 1 (complete)

ALL TIPS, + plenty of other content… + Day 1 Video

Festival Master Post: HERE>>> (inc the stats report/plan for week/betting bank)

Remember you can track a blogs progress by looking in the title above.. it did say (hold) for ‘holding’, that will progress through (upd1) ‘update 1!’, (upd2) etc, all the way through to (Complete) – at which point no new content from me will be added. I use that same approach for all blog posts. 

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Day 1

1.Intro/re cap

The big day is here. A reminder that I am using a 25 point bank for this week, but of course staking is entirely up to you. As is my want I tend to go on the nose rather than EW, but that’s just me…and at this meeting is probably foolhardy. But, as I write, and until I change, that’s how I play the game. IF following my tips – you follow them. All the way through until the 20/1 winner of the last race! 🙂 You should be prepared to lose all 25 points and that should determine your staking level. If you only wish to lose £50, you bet £2.50 per point, £100 – £5 per point, and so on. This week is about cheering the odd winner, having some fun, not losing too much and with any luck actually making a profit. It’s tough. It’s slog. It’s a long week. Never every be put off by price. With that said, let’s crack on… (oh I have added an ‘Others’ section under each write up, section 4, for interest) 

 

2.TIPS: Summary

All tips now complete, there will be no more ‘official tips’, plenty of mentions in the write ups no doubt! 7 points outlay day 1. 

2.50

Vintage Clouds – 2 points win – 10/1 (gen) 3rd 7/1

Shantou Flyer – 1 point win – 20/1 (bet365) 16/1 (gen) 18/1 (in places) 2nd (neck) 14/1 (ahhh) 

Knight of Noir – 1/2 point win – 25/1 (gen) (could take chance BFSP,be surprised if price crashes but educated guesswork) UP

-3.5 advised

 

 

4.50 

Ms Parfois – 1 point win – 7/1 (gen) 13/2 (plenty) 2nd 

Duel At Dawn – 1/2 point win – 16/1 (gen) UP

-5 

5.30 

Testify – 1 point win – 12/1 (bet365/Boyle/BV) 10/1 (gen) UP

Mr Whitaker – 1 point win – 9/1 (betfS/PP/BV) 8/1 (gen) WON 9/1>13/2 

+3 / +2 on day 

3.Micro Systems/Angles: Qualifiers

I would advise using the following as ‘starting points’ as opposed to backing everything systematically. if you use them at all! 🙂 . Many of these angles are unproven as ‘systems’ as such. But you may wish to use the info in any of your own thinking etc. All research can be found in the report above.

Micro Systems x5

2.50 

O O Seven (micro 3, 16/1<)

Singlfarmpayment (m3,16/1<)

5.30 

Ballyhill (m3, 16/1<)

Any Second Now (m2, m5, 25/1<)

Conrad Hastings (m2, m5, 25/1<)

Demi Sang (m1, m5, 25/1<)

Tycoon Prince (m5, 25/1<)

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‘Notes’ (Owners, Trainers/Jockeys)

The following horses hit at least one stat from the report above..these are found manually and at some point during the week I will miss something, with any luck it isn’t a big priced winner, i’ll try my best not to! 

Owners

JP

3.30 Buveur D’Air

4.50 – No Comment (9/1<)

5.30 – Any Second Now (9/1<) / Demi Slang (9/1<)

Gigginstown

5.30 – Tycoon Prince (16/1<)

 

Trainers

2.50 – Ramses De Teillee / Eamon An Cnoic (both PIPE, 16/1<)

 

Jockeys

Russell

1.30 – Paloma Blue (‘micro’ as per notes)

5.30 – De Plotting Shed (20/1<)

Scudamore

1.30 – Shoal Bay

2.50 – Ramses De Teillec

5.30 – Le Rocher (33/1<)

Townend

1.30 – Sharjah

3.30 – Melon (20/1<)

 

4.TIPS: Race Previews (inc shorlists)

2.50 – Ultima Handicap Chase

TIPS

Vintage Clouds – 2 points win – 10/1 (gen)

Shantou Flyer – 1 point win – 20/1 (bet365) 16/1 (gen) 18/1 (in places)

Knight of Noir – 1/2 point win – 25/1 (gen) (could take chance BFSP,be surprised if price crashes but educated guesswork)

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Write up

Vintage Clouds… 

Rarely do I pull out the 2 pointer and certainly not at this meeting..as I pondered I doubted whether I would be as bullish again on a horse this week…so I though i’d back up that view with the 2 points. We all know he will go too fast into the first fence and unseat Cook! It does feel a bit too good to be true. He just ticks every box really. He hits my profile below, falling down on ‘one of those’ stats that I shouldn’t get too hung up on (number of runs in G3s)…certainly when it’s heavy for the first time in 29 years and my race stats may be useless! I thought Cook would be aggressive on him and have him up ‘in the van’, either leading or tracking any other pace. The theory is that he will relish race conditions and the slower pace they should go will help his jumping. He is a consistent horse, winning or placing in 16 of his 21 races to date. Smith is in decent enough form and Cook’s confidence around here will be boosted after the win of Definitly Red at the last meeting. (as I write I see that Alex Hammond has tipped him…oh FFS!! Where is that lay button?!.. I jest, she does tip the odd winner??) The horse is in decent form- he hasn’t run a bad race all season really, and he does have track form. He ran well enough in this race last year. Yes he UR a couple out when staying on again, but up to that point he had run well, and in general, jumped ok. That was on much quicker ground and they were always going a stride quick for him. He was upsides three from home. He always seems to respond well for pressure. I just couldn’t see an excuse here for a big run. If he jumps fine and runs his race I’d be surprised if he were not in the top 4. He stays further and if leading as they turn for home I’m not sure anything will get passed him. We shall see. Fingers crossed he can get into a rhythm on the front end..if he does i’ll have plenty to cheer as this race progresses.

Shantou Flyer…

I threw the stats out the window here somewhat as based on history he is too exposed. However, with young Jame’s Bowen’s claim he is on his last winning mark, the jockey knows him, and he has been very consistent on his last few starts. He arrives fit and in form. And he relishes this hill. He has run here 6 times and won/placed on 4 of them. Twice this season he has ran on late over shorter here, in heavy. At times this season he has looked to be crying out for 3m+ around here. He ran well enough the last day in a small field non handicap at Kelso and at least held his form. He gets the first time visor here which I also thought was interesting. He ran well in first time CP a couple of starts back. Bar an accident I thought he wouldn’t be far away and he would relish this climb to the line. This could be the year that it pays to keep onside the odd ‘been there and done it horse’ – the more exposed handicapper. Given his course form, his current form, the distance move and headgear, I thought 20s may be a shade too big. I do like to think of ‘the story’ around a race also, and a first Festival win for trainer/jockey would be a decent one.

Knight of Noir…

A poke for sure but he hits the ‘shortlist’ below and of the bigger priced ones looked the most interesting to my eye. This is his first run for M Blake who has a good record with new recruits to the yard and can ready them after a break…well he can ready hurdlers after a break, no win as yet with chasers but from a small sample. He is unexposed over fences and there could be more to come at some point. There are bits and pieces of form in softer ground and he has run here before over hurdles. It could be his jumping doesn’t hold, he doesn’t handle heavy, and he simply isn’t good enough…but there was just something niggling at me with him and given his price, and what could be a decent price on the exchange, I thought it best to throw 1/2 a point at him. I can live with losing it much more than the pain of seeing him romp home, unbacked/tipped. A proper poke, but there will be some shocks this week, and maybe he will be one of them!

Others…

 

Those horses that I may find mildly irritating were they to win, having not been tipped : Ramses De Teillee / Minella Daddy / Cogry 

 

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Using the following ‘winning profile’: moving up in distance 0.5f+ / 0-3 chase runs at Chelt / 0-2 handicap wins / 0-3 chase wins / 0-1 handicap chase wins

Using these stats,…

‘Shortlist’ (final): Ramses De Teillee / Knight of Noir / Coo Star Sivola WON / Minella Daddy / Eamon An Cnoic / Vintage Clouds 3rd / O O Seven 

That profile very much focuses on how exposed or unexposed they are… if looking at the ‘class’ pointers… 0-2 runs in G3 (class) (that removes Vintage Clouds although within that winning profile above such stats are 0/11,1p) and Did Not run in a G3 LTO (that removes O O Seven)

Ramses/Coo Star/Mineall all ran RH LTO which has been a negative in this race, but could just be one of those stats. No 6YO has won in 10 years but only 15 have tried, 3 have placed. Horses that hadn’t run at Cheltenham are 0/31,5p in last 10 runnings, a slight neg for Ramses D T/Minella D/Eamon An Cnoic

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4.50 NH Chase

TIPS

Ms Parfois – 1 point win – 7/1 (gen) 13/2 (plenty)

Duel At Dawn – 1/2 point win – 16/1 (gen)

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Write Up 

Ms Parfois… she his plenty of stats here and her track form tipped me over the edge. She is in superb form, stays 3m well, I have little concern over heavy, she gallops and she could well be the best jumper of a fence in this race, on what they have done to date. She is ‘this season’s horse’ really and it can pay to stick with such types and her trainer hasn’t had a bad time of it this season either. I was pretty certain that, bar a BD, she would complete. She has a decent enough jockey on and I thought she may just keep going when many in here may have given up. She also gets a 7lb mares allowance which could be worth plenty in the climb after the last.

Due At Dawn…another who hits plenty of the stats,(limited that they are)  his trainer is in form, he arrives here after a short break and does just look an out and out galloper. I thought he was worth a crack at this trip and his form ties in with MP above. If she doesn’t stay, he could well pick up the pieces. It is 1/2 a point because his jockey is yet to ride a chase winner…gulp. He has ridden a couple of hunter chase winners but it is a concern- this race is as much about who is riding as the horse. He is a decent young pilot and deserves to take his chance. This one may well not be good enough but at 16s I thought worth a stab. He could just keep plodding.

Of the rest..well Mullins or Elliot could take this… Jury Duty seemed short enough given there are some stamina doubts in this ground. Well, stamina is an unknown for most in here, but I didn’t like the way he tied up in heavy the last day. It could be they left plenty to work on and he does have a superb pilot. He hasn’t raced here over fences and that did tip me in favour of MP. Maybe 6s is fair given connections but I wasn’t jumping up and down to wade in. The same can be said of Mossback whose price doesn’t seem overly generous either. Rathvinden is interesting but is 10 and arrives here on the back of a BD and UR. Jumping is a niggle although I suspect he may run a big race. His first go over fences around here also. Sizing Tennessee- i had concerns over his jumping in this sort of race, with this many fences, in heavy, over this far. Something niggled at me with him. He has beaten Duel At Dawn before but the hope is that the ground/trip/more experience since that run, may allow him to overturn that form.

 

Others…

Those horses that I may find mildly irritating were they to win, having not been tipped : Rathvinden / Shades of Midnight / Sizing Tennessee

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Shortlist: (i have looked again using last 8 years stats when this became a conditions race) If looking at OR same or higher than LTO, 2+ wins in non handicaps, ran in Non-handicap LTO…

Jury Duty / No Comment / Mossback / Ms Parfois / Keeper Hill / Pylon The Pressure / Duel At Dawn / Shades of Midnight 

Ignoring the OR stats, which isn’t so significant applied to the qualifiers from the next two stats above, adds… Raathvinden / Impulsive Star / Robin of Locksley

Placing in 3-5 chases is a positive: Jury Duty/ Ms Parfois / Duel At Dawn / Rathvinden

Within that set of stats those with 2-4 runs at track are 5/8: Ms Parfois / Rathvinden

3-5 chase runs is also a positive: Jury Duty / Ms Parfois / Keeper Hill / Duel At Dawn / Shades of Midnight

Looking at that lot combined, my eyes, stats wise, are most drawn to: Jury Duty / Ms Parfois 2nd/ Duel At Dawn / Rathvinden WON

 

5.30 Close Brothers Novices Hncp

Testify – 1 point win – 12/1 (bet365/Boyle/BV) 10/1 (gen)

Mr Whitaker – 1 point win – 9/1 (betfS/PP/BV) 8/1 (gen)

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Write Up

Testify…

Well he hits some of the pointers (although they should be treated with caution) below, arrives in form, and has a win in ‘Haydock Heavy’ – he looks sure to relish conditions here, McCain continues in form, and it would be a fitting win to mark his recent resurgence. He has only been winning in small fields and his jumping will come under pressure, but there is a chance WK is aggressive on him also, and he should be in the right spot. He hasn’t done much wrong in his chase career to date and deserves to take his chance here. I thought he may just be keeping on when plenty have given up. The track is an unknown over fences, as it is for many in here, which is why I wanted a double figure price. He is in form, he has winning chase experience, he handles heavy (and this could be cut up come this race) the yard is in form.

Mr Whitaker…

His course form was the main way in really. He just looks solid here. Heavy is an unknown, maybe he will flounder, but I thought he was worth a dart. He looks like he stays well and we know he handles this hill. It was soft enough when he won here the last day and he did it comfortably enough to my eye. Hughes takes over which could be a positive…there is a chance they go too hard in this and his creeping style may be ideal for how this race plays out. The horse needs to be delivered late enough also. Hopefully he runs exactly like our winner in this last year.

Of the rest..

well, it’s a bit of a lottery and you can make a case for plenty, as you can with most handicaps here!

I will mention Le Rocher.. he may be worth a tickle, not least because he hits the Scudamore angle above and the horse relishes heavy. I haven’t been totally convinced with his jumping but if he gets around he will handle the ground better than most. No forlorn hope, although the fences did concern me.  Ballyhill is interesting, if we can put that last run down to the yard form at the time. He has track form, although his jumping can be sticky…but I keep thinking Nigel may have a good week..given plenty of his relish a muddy climb to the line and seem to keep on galloping. He hits one of the micros above. He could just be out of form. Those two may be the most interesting of the bigger priced ones to my eyes.

I was happy to take on the two Irish horses at the top of the market given neither had won over fences as yet. One or both may be thrown in but in that context I was happy to leave them.

 

Others…

Those horses that I may find mildly irritating were they to win, having not been tipped: Le Rocher / Report To Base / Ballyhill / Rather Be 2nd / Demi Sang (it’s that sort of race!)

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Shortlist: Not many race stats to go on here and i’m not too sure how useful they will be… looking at those with 3-4 chase runs, and aged 5-7…

Any Second Now / Rather Be 2nd / Divine Spear / Mister Whitaker WON / Testify / Report To Base 

The age stats are not the strongest really (wins for 8+ and the place stats decent enough) Ignoring the age stat… other also with 3/4 chase runs (which is a 9/10 stat) De Plotting Shed / Livelovelaugh / Tycoon Prince / Rocklander / Markov / Le Rocher

 

 

5.Any Other Thoughts

NOTE: PLEASE only post Festival related comments under this post. There will be the usual members’ daily posts for all things non-festival/the usual, including I suspect All-Weather thoughts from Ken and Colin! 🙂

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VIDEO: DAY 1

You said you wanted videos in the 7-20 minute range… drum roll… this one is 31 minutes! 🙂 I really did try.. anyway, I have flicked through the tips plus why I don’t like most of the others in said races…and the odd other musing…hopefully something of interest… i’ll endeavour to me more succinct tomorrow but it’s hard in 16+ runner races! 

 

 

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Other Day 1 Musings

My thoughts on the other races do not amount to much, but those that looked interesting enough to me..

1.30 – Kalashnikov / First Flow / Paloma Blue

2.10 – Saint Calvados

4.10 – La Bague Au Roi EW (although bar a fall the fav wins doesn’t she?)

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That’s it for Day 1, i’d better get cracking on Day 2.

As always, Good Luck with any bets,

Josh

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

45 Responses

  1. lets start at the beginning with the Supreme Novices Hurdle 1-30 both skybet (£20) and betway (£10) are offering money back as a free bet if your horse loses and it would be rude not to take advantage of the offers.
    I’m going to dismiss Getabird not because it won’t win but the price doesn’t reflect ability the Walsh/Mullins factor has made it artificially low imho. I was very impressed with Kalashnikov’s last run hitting 2 out fairly hard and still went on to win cosily going won’t be a problem and i’ll have my £20 with skybet on him, of the rest Paloma Blue or First Flow will get my £10 with betway , i just have a niggling feeling about Paloma Blue can’t put my finger on it and will go with him. i’ll probably back First flow ew as well and of the bigger prices Western Ryder 33-1 might be worth a small ew.

  2. Hi Martin

    Something to bear in mind re Kalashinkov

    NONE of the last 20 Supreme winners ran in a Handicap last time out.

    47 tried to win the Supreme off the back of a Handicap run, zero were victorious and only six managed to place. Get Me Out Of Here almost managed to pull off the feat…but ultimately he didn’t quite manage it.

    1. Yep, in that context 4s looks skinny… oh to have got on at 25s a few weeks back! Do bear in mind though, this is heavy ground… he will be better on decent ground, but stays further than this and ground was no hindrance LTO… this year,of all years, having battle hardened handicap experience, especially in a race like this, could be a positive. There has been no Festival officially start on heavy in 20 years I don’t think, it is now Heavy Soft in places after 10mm last night, could be more on way. Given SkyBet offer, i’d rather back him than Fav, if you wish to play in race..which given SB offer, if you can get on etc, you may as well pick something. GL

    2. On top of that there is absolutely zero reason to believe he will reverse the form with Summerville Boy who is twice the price. People tend to forget that at the end of the day the Betfair Hurdle is a handicap so off his mark he will have expected to beat them. Both Olly Murphy and Paul Nicholls both couldn’t understand the price difference or thought there was any reason why he would reverse the form. I guess the only slightly concern now is Tom George hasn’t had a winner in a while but enough of his have ran close.

      1. Hmm, well there are plenty of reasons 🙂 Although I am biased (haven’t a penny on mind, didn’t wade in at 16s-25s sadly, but short now)
        1. He lost a shoe at Sandown,at the second flight, where he also suffered an overreach – striking into a front leg. So, in that context, he ran a blinder.
        2. It was sticky heavy and he didn’t go through it, the first sort of soft/heavy ground he had faced. He learnt plenty from that, but the ground was horrid, not ‘wet’. He clearly thrives in a big field race run at good gallop, that was a tactical affair to a point. And he did improve for it NTO.
        3. Yard is in better form than George, he comes here after less time off. He is more battle hardened which in these conditions could be no bad thing, he also stays further..were there no Samcro they would have had a difficult decision about which race to pitch him into.
        4. George in poor form, 66 day break a niggle.

        I’d say there are a few reasons why he could overturn the form, whether he will, time will tell! But take point about price disparity, but I won’t fall off my seat if/when K finishes ahead of him, just depends if anything in front of the pair.

        1. Well the break could be a double edged sword there since he comes into the race fresh and the Betfair was a hard race which might have left a mark given he was pushed along and connections feel the larger field will suit also. Price still wrong though.

          1. True, just taking issue with ‘zero reason’ haha. I’ll eat my hat when the George horse sluices up. All signs at home are that he’s fresh as a daisy, but you don’t know until they push the button NTO.

      2. Yes the machine gun is a crazy price at present.

        Ground report – the guy I know who works at the course on groundwork for meetings was on course yesterday. He said it was soft enough. He text me this morning to say that it rained throughout the night as he lived 3 miles from the course. He is back there today and so will report back later.

        1. Martin / Josh
          I’m 6 miles from the course and watching the rain splash in puddles as its been doing for a couple of hours now – can’t believe it will be anything but Heavy all round tomorrow

          1. The forecast says ran until 11 tonight and then stop, so may dry a bit? Yes it is looking heavy on Tuesday.

  3. Ultima Chase, additional stats – Only one winning favourite since 1994. Last 6 winners all wore some sort of headgear. 8 of the last 9 winners had previous festival experience.

  4. Starting off my Cheltenham bets I thought I would put this one up early as price crashing as we speak but having 1pt e/w on Vintage Clouds in the Ultima 14:50.

    1. Yep, he’s done for! :)You, me, Ben A no doubt, that’s enough weight of expectation to ruin his chance. Still, fingers crossed.

    2. Vintage Clouds Cheltenham 14:50 1pt e/w
      Ballyhill Cheltenham 17:30 0.75pt e/w
      Summerville Boy Cheltenham 1pt e/w as long as you can get 4 places or the SkyBet or Coral offers (or anything else which gives you money back)

      That’s it for Cheltenham for tomorrow from me. May find time to do write ups.

      1. Well done, spot on. Great race, but for a couple of howlers would have been more comfortable. Jack maybe gone for home too soon, but used stamina, and best horse on day won. Good start for you.

        1. He’s got a hell of an engine. Absolutely cruised through the race before the errors and I thought he had no chance after the last.

  5. My Cheltenham wishlist

    Tom George to break his run of bad luck at the festival
    Cue Card to win the Ryanair and bow out in style
    The home team getting a few more winners on the board this year.The dominance of the Mullins/Elliot over here has destroyed the racing spectacle.We used to love having a few winners at the festival,and occasionally getting the most winners but the wheel has turned too much.A first from an Irishman maybe,Come on The Brits!
    Enjoy the racing and remember there will be winners to be had elsewhere as well,and there is racing on Saturday

    1. No such thing as luck, just horses not good enough to win on the day.

      End of Cue Card I am afraid. Another beaten run and then retirement.

  6. Hi Josh.

    I’ll be following you in to battle 🙂 I hope I don’t offend you but I’ll be tweaking it slightly by doing level stakes and mostly each way on all your bets. GL

    Matt M

    1. Hi Matt, you brave man haha…oh staking is up to you really, that’s my take on it and I just don’t have an EW brain! Also, I can’t bring myself to tip to 1/2 point EW, which means suggesting 1 point EW, which in turn means a 50 point bank, and I don’t wish to lose a 50 point bank this week. I can cope with 25, but 50 gets a bit painful then, and I don’t wish to get to the Gold Cup, if it’s all gone horribly wrong, and be unable to enjoy the race, say. Sticking rigidly to a 25 point bank, at least until guaranteed profit, has led to the odd 1/2 point above.. clearly if Duel or Knight wins you know what i’ll be thinking! But 7 points on Day 1 is quite enough, and i’m as bullish as I can be in a Festival handicap about Vintage Clouds, hence the 2 pointer. There are 4/5 horses there who if they stand up, i’d be surprised if they were too far away/unplaced. Time will tell.
      But you’re free to use it as you please. 14 of the 35 or so tips in last year’s Festival week won/placed.
      Josh

  7. Not logged in at SkyBet for some time being an exchange type of guy, so I was pleased to find a free £50 bet waiting for me.

    Anyone else had any nice surprises like that?

    I’m thinking of sticking it all on Getabird or e/w on First Flow at the moment, there’s also the free bet for a loser to throw into the equation. I guess I’m best served to wait for a better opportunity though seeing as I’m lagging behind on drawing up shortlists and bets.

  8. I have done 4 hours study for Tuesday plus another hour on the exchanges. I am waiting for some further matches.

    1.30 I am waiting on 9/4 Getabird as it is drifting. I have backed Dame Rose each way at 80/1. She gets the 7LB Mares allowance and id no forlorn hope. I will back another one in the race but still have 8 left to pick from.

    2.10 Waiting on Footpad 5/4+.

    2.50 I have backed Singlefarmpayment + Eamon An Cnoic + Vintage Clouds, so job done.

    3.30 I have 4/6 The Fav and have gone big. I have 5 to pick from for an each way fancy.

    4.10 I have 4/6 Apples Jade and have gone big. I will do another each way if I can get the price and have three to pick from.

    4.50 I have narrowed it down to 9 and will back 2.

    5.30 I have backed Mr Whitaker and will back another one. I have six to pick from.

    I will leave it now until I am on course and have had my first Guinness.

    Good luck.

  9. 13:30 Cheltenham
    FIRST FLOW 12/1
    heavy ground will help this fella and accurate jumping will help races close up off the front end if allowed easy lead could be hard to peg back has shown an improving profile strong galloping style will stand him in good stead up the hill .The previous race he won is known for producing serious horses and this race in 2012 was won by a horse from that race
    PALOMA BLUE 14/1
    Paloma Blue ran well despite being keen behind Samcro last time out and looks the each way value here. He will get the pace he needs here and has a man on board that rides this track better than most.

    14:50 Cheltenham
    RAMSES DE TEILLEE 12/1
    represents a yard who have regularly targeted this race and enjoyed success three times across the last decade. Stamina assured and seen to best effect on ground he will encounter here , and still looks open to progress taking in just his fifth career chase start today. Already twice a winner over fences turning left-handed and has the experience of Peter Scudamore in the saddle. Trends reflect that a relatively recent run serves a runner well and he deserves some respect.
    SIZING CODELCO 33/1
    despite not being the most obvious choice, Sizing Codelco does meet all the major trends for previous winners, and with this in mind, plus the trainer’s recent good form, the selection is worthy of a small each way punt, in what will prove to be a very testing race.

    17:30 Cheletenham
    TESTIFY 11/1
    last two runs over heavy going , Testify has some decent form , winning two small field events at Haydock Park , testing going will suit the Mccain horse , great each way opportunity.
    LE ROCHER 16/1
    Adores the heavy ground, has a string of wins on heavy going and clearly the softer the better, will get his conditions at Cheltenham Tuesday – could well have won last time but for a mistake at second, and has been in good form this season.

  10. 330 Elgin must be an EW bet here, having been supplemented as it was evident that soft going would pertain on day 1 but, now the going is heavy, he might be even more favoured than on soft lto with his G2 win. Won over CD in Nov. and a strong pace ensured so he can use his finish tomorrow. 20/1, 1/4 3p with B365
    I’ve backed the following to place on the heavy:-
    130 Simply The Betts
    250 Beware The Bear + Cogry
    410 Jers Girl
    450 Duel At Dawn
    530 Le Rocher

  11. Some decent offers around today, especially on the first race.

    Sky refunding all losers as a free bet up to £20
    Coral refunding all losers as a free bet up to £25
    32 Red are refunding losers as a free bet up to £10
    William Hill offering double winnings up to £100 as a free bet, including profit made on each way bets
    Ladbrokes offering double winnings as a free bet up to £50 if you pick the winner.

    Betway are also refunding losers on the first and last race as a free bet up to £10.

    Genting are offering a £20 free bet refund on your first losing bet of the day.

    Some people might have an offer from 365 where you get a matched bet in one race each day.

    If anyone doesn’t have a Smarkets account, they’ve got a nice offer available through Oddschecker now. 4x£10 risk free bets on one race each day

  12. I’m keen on Mossback 4.50 stepping up in trip from the right connections who won this last year.
    Good jockey with good strike rate, I just wish it was double the price but 6./1 bog will have to do but to a smaller stake
    Most will be out with the washing in this slog come the finish.

    Ive also a small ew on Gold Present 2.50 humping a lot of weight over an long distance in a mudbath, makes no sense so probably a good thing 😉

    1. Ha, Gold Present… it’s that sort of week! If he romps home then it will be a long week…albeit he hasn’t proved he doesn’t handle the ground! If he romps home here his National price may shorten somewhat. Mossback…won’t be putting anyone off those connections..were he double that price i may haev overlooked that fall two starts back… but won’t fall of seat if Irish come to the fore in that. It’s a marathon and not a sprint, fingers crossed.

  13. Davy Russell just riding brilliantly today, he’s crept his horses into each race and got the best out of each one getting them involved in the finish with the possible exception being Petite M. Been great to watch considering he’s not been on anything near the best horse in the race.

    1. Cheers Michael, thank the lord for that last winner, not sure i could have taken another very close 2nd! Can’t complain with how well they have all run, certainly the 1 point+ selections. A bit more luck.. both Shantou and MP made slow jumps up home straight, may have cost the pair, but that’s racing. No surprise with the two winners either that I didn’t back, can live with those..it’s when a big priced one does you that was closely considered that compounds the misery! On we go.

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