Free Daily Post: 13/02/18 (complete)

nothing from me today…

Nothing from today.



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  1. GOLF BETS Genesis Open
    Phil Mickleson 1 point ew 25/1 1/5 7 CO PP BO BFSB
    Sticking with Phil after his fine 2nd last week for us and over the past 2 weeks he his playing some of his best golf for years and Riviera suits him
    Thomas Pieters 1 point ew 50/1 1/5 6 SJ BF SUN plenty of 50/1 but with different terms
    Made his debut here last year and took to the greens like a duck to water finishing a fine 2nd and at 50/1 can be the dark horse

    Information only Top Rated Player Dustin Johnson 11/2

    1. Johnson clear top rated but no value, and for those who have played this event numerous times, the best performers by way of win/top 5/10/10 finishes would be Mickelson, Johnson, Scott, Watson, Haas, Baddeley

      Choi, Bradley, Walker, Donald have decent place forms without the tournament win

  2. AW BETS
    Yesterday lost 1/2 point on the day even with 6 in one race

    2.20 Star Ascending
    2.20 Oceanus
    5.00 Red Stripes
    5.00 Archimedes

  3. Tuesday football – Champions league – Basle are not that good but are an attacking team and are solid at home, They did best Man U 1-0 but Man City are better. However I make them 4/6 and not 4/11 and so I am going with HT Draw/FT Man City at 3/1. Two teams on unbeaten runs clash with Juventus v Spurs. Juve are strong at home whereas Spurs are average away. I will go with Juve at 11/10 and also Juve to win to nil at 23/10.
    League Two – Notts County are strong at home and the 11/10 v Carlisle looks OK.

    Good luck.

    1. Research is the key the 15/8 CTC Cajamarca looked to good to be true
      and on the face of it Bet Victor had made a massive rick
      but I was unsettled a bit and did some further digging
      and I found that CTC stadium is under re construction and they are playing the home league games
      on the coast at TILJILLO.
      to complicate things further they have had trouble at that venue as well
      and the tie has been moved to Lima( 0 meters altitude)

      So the match offers no altitude advantage to the home team thus making the odds about right
      when I saw the match I thought it was Christmas at 15/8 but it shows if you don’t do your
      research properly you will make big mistakes

      on the plus side it was hard to find a website that carried the info that
      the tie was being switched.

      The more difficult it is to find info the better chance(in theory) the punter has
      as the average player wouldn’t be clued in to up to date news

      The bookies must love premier league football as they play on stats they have such a massive base to set the odds from.

      So if you were an expert on more obscure leagues you may have an edge over the bookies
      I read some research that the size of the crowd had a bearing on home advantage
      in the big premier leagues with 50,000 plus crowds the home team wins about 47% of games
      but in the Scottish 2nd division where they often only get crowds of 500 or less
      the home teams only win 42% of matches

      So I think if you have a real knowledge of lower leagues
      then you have a real chance as teams like Manchester City are still strong if one of their best players are injured but if a lowly team in a lowly league has their star striker out it can make a massive difference to their chances

      The question is where do you get the info from maybe the answer is to go on the websites
      of all the teams in a certain league and get the latest
      If anyone bets on the more obscure football league I would be interested in your methods

      1. I cannot speak much re South American football, especially as their seasons have just gone under way again. If you want to bet football properly you do need to do the research. You need to take a look on club websites and on fan blogs, where you can pick up info re injuries and current form. You also need to understand the club managers and whether they are just on the merry go round of appointment, such as Simon Grayson and Ian Holloway etc. If you look back at their track record it is not good if you analyse it. What they say on TV is not necessarily coming from an informed viewpoint and plays to beliefs and cliches. What would be interesting would be an English manager in the Champions League to see how they adapted to the style of play of their opponents.
        I use expected goals, home and away. It is not about the volume of shots but their % chance to score when they are taken. These things level off over time and of course any team can have an off day.

        Good luck to UTC Cajamarca when they play by the seaside this evening.

        1. Thanks Martin,
          Good insight into Football betting.
          Now I know that UTC are not playing at their Altitude base The 15/8 isn’t a play so
          watching brief.
          there will be other opportunities.

          1. Another thing re lower league football is the state of the pitch and the teams style of play. An interesting instance is that Maidstone United used to have a strong home record on their 4G pitch. However it is not such an advantage in the Vanarama National as the teams are better and it suits teams with a quick passing game. It is not easy to get much money on in the lower leagues at the bookies dont like it and the market is not that fluid on the exchanges.

          2. Thanks Martin,
            I Suppose the big matches allow you to have a decent bet
            but if the bookies are happy to take big bets they know the odds are very much in their favour.

            They love on line betting as they have no overheads and can keep an eagle eye on anyone who
            is a winner.
            the exchanges are ok but the liquidity is poor on lower leagues
            I suppose the only way round it is if you see a rick in the prices
            do the leg work and go to the shops with a fiver at a time
            so you get the price without putting on biggish bets on alert the trading floor

          3. The advantage of the Premier League and the Champions League is that the market is big on the exchanges as well as with bookies. You can do £5M plus on the exchanges in matches involving the big six in the Premier League most weeks. So you can get on thousands in these matches. The best bet for a punter is to lay the big six away at 4/6 or lower, excepting Man City at present. Also because they score goals back Man City and Liverpool when they are evens or better.

        2. Thanks Martin,
          Good insight into Football betting.
          Now I know that UTC are not playing at their Altitude base The 15/8 isn’t a play so a
          watching brief.
          There will be other opportunities.

          I truly believe that lowland teams visiting altitude teams are at a major disadvantage
          but as you say that not the full story. from now on when I find games that fit my brief
          will then research them a bit further to see if the edge is worth playing

          My research was poor on Cajamarca and it was only that the price was way out of line to what
          I thought it should be that I dug deeper.

          if I hadn’t come across the correct info would have lumped on
          and it would have been down to sheer luck as if it came up.

  4. 4.00 south. Queens Royale has gd CD figures yet to be out the frame over CD and a few lb higher when winning here in a small field. I forgive the last run in a apprentice race when we were 3rd plus were returning from over a month off. I wouldnt want to be a layer at 9/1 thats for sure and i have it around 6/1 13/2 . 3rd rated on my ratings so hopefully we bounce back today. Win/place for me

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