Free Daily Post: 09/02/18 (complete)

nothing today

Nothing from me today. I am away later today for the weekend and it will be fairly quiet on the free posts, bar the odd micro system qualifier.


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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

35 Responses

  1. Very heavy rain in London this morning so I think Kempton could be very heavy.
    anyone betting there should be careful.

    tomorrows return of Altior could be very interesting.
    Politilogue is very fit and jumps well so Henderson horse will have to be pretty straight to win.

    With the Champion chase just around the corner I don’t think Nicky will have hard trained him
    for tomorrow and with the likely hood of very testing ground
    Politilogue looks the value

    Clinton Hill won well yesterday and with All for joy going off at a fast pace it played into his hands
    both the front two looked stayers and in the conditions and on testing ground
    they ran the puff out of the rest.

    I don’t think either horse will be a festival bumper type but staying chases will be their bag
    the horses in behind will do better in the future and spring ground will see lots of this heavy ground form
    turned over

    With guys on this site coming from all over the country anyone who lives near a race course
    that has buckets of early rain would be useful to post it up

    I am about 10 mile from Kempton and it starting hammering down about 5am
    till about 8.30 so in theory should have a big effect on the ground
    Anyone who is considering a big bet there should call the course to check out the current ground
    I usually phone the course if I am having a bet telling them I am coming to their tracks and ask what the weather has been like
    do I need to bring a brolly and if it is currently raining etc

    if they think you are coming racing they are usually vey helpful

    1. KP usually drains well and we seem to be having a change in going towards Good to soft now hopefully. However I agree that no big bets are advisable unless there is strong information. Re Altior, obviously his target is Cheltenham and so he will not be match fit. However he may be able to beat the opposition only partly fit? What price would you back Altior? I would lay him at 4/6 and back at 6/4. We shall see.

      I was 0/3 yesterday and so apologies for that. I will go with Chosen Path, 1.50 KP to beat the favourite, circa 5/1 BOG. He won well on his penultimate run and then unseated his rider LTO when going well. I also like Lord County, 3.50 BOD, to carry on winning against this opposition.

      For those of you who do not trace Matchbook have gone 0% commission on Horse racing from today until after the Festival. So why not give it a try?

      1. Altior is a top horse but win or lose I don’t think he will be
        100% wound up.

        chasing is a dangerous business so even when they state a horse isn’t 100% fit it would be reckless
        to send out a chaser who will be knackered in the last few furlongs

        Henderson is no fool and the horse wouldn’t be there if he wasn’t reasonably fit.
        but I put it like the football managers who have players coming back from injury
        that say the guy is very fit but not quite match fit
        and they often have run outs with the reserves before pitching up
        for the first team
        so I have a feeling that Altior although fit will not be spot on
        The Champion chase is his main goal so although he will give it a go Tomorrow
        I think the prices are out of line
        Altior wouldn’t be my idea of an odds on chance and with Politologue
        available at 11/4 he is the one I will be on

  2. AW BETS
    2.00 Jumping Around
    2.35 The King Steed
    2.35 Naralsaif
    4.15 Captain Lars
    5.45 Foxy Lady

    Had a good start since putting my bets on the site please do not get carried away with your investments for their will be losing runs

    1. Hi Colin
      I have been looking at your recent posts on the all weather. Do your selection methods have any bearing on articles written by methodmaker in the old sporting chronical handicap book from the 1970s.

      John Welsh

      1. John
        No cannot recall buying the sporting chronicle always sporting life man.
        Stopped using form years ago and i would rather buy a race card on course than the bookmaker friendly racing post who will not publish the flagship pricewise results then that says it all.
        I have used my racing knowledge and logic for my bets i have stats for technical six systems for which i try to avoid odds on at any cost if possible and at this moment in time 4 of the 6 are winning and well ahead and i am not worried about the 2 which are losing at the moment 10 1/2 months left.
        This is why i am a fan of Racing To Profit,Josh is a stat man and he is not a fan of short priced favs.

        1. Colin
          The reason I mentioned methodmaker was that he wrote several articles using statistics to show the benefits of backing horses returning to the track within 7 days which seems to be your modus operandi on the all weather. There was no all weather in the 1970s and I was wondering if his methods of the 70s worked today on the sand.

          1. Those were the great days when Trainers like David Chapman ; Milton Bradley and their ilk could run a sprinter every week, race 30 times a year ad win 10-12-14 races.

            The entry systems and the handicapping seemed much more sensible then to me, as now a horse wins a race and seems to get excessively penalised for winning.

            Moderate horses well trained and place could run up sequences now anything over 3-4 wins is very rare.

          2. chaplins club and glencroft boy did these two rattle up some wins between them always look at Ruth Carrs sprinters the daughter of David Chapman

          3. 16 wasn’t it in a season, unbelievable to think now. I have a horse called Provideo in my head too, not sure it was a Chapman horse.

          4. John
            No problem always used 7 day as a starting point then use ratings to decide which ones to back if you backed all runners you would be in the poor house.
            For me it is common sense if a trainer has the horse fit then he wants to win as many times as he can before it goes off the boil and also the handicapper catches up with it.
            Worked for me for many years even over NH Martin and David Pipe bring them out quickly with great success(i know Martin retired but he did it in his day)
            I stick to my ratings for if you go into form then i tend to miss a 20/1 plus winner,and they are the ones i like.

          5. Thanks Colin.
            Like you I tend to concentrate on horses returning to the track quickly but a bit more flexible over days. As you said backing all quick returners is certainly not profitable but using ratings and trainer stats can narrow the runners down to favourable bets . I also avoid odds on and short price favourites.

    2. Hi Colin. I’m going to take on your Foxy Lady with Mr. Carbonator. Not an official tip from me, just a feeling 🙂 GL

  3. I really wanted to take on OK Corral in the 1.50 at KP but the fact was earlier the only negative was the trip.
    I want to take on anybody frankly who wears pink trousers for a PR Day! May be the new Mrs Hendo stuck her knickers in the wash with his corduroys?.

    With Going deteriorating the obvious one is Run To Milan but value has gone for an e/w poke and he too has to actually step up in trip, so the two with value would seem to be Get Out Of The Gate, very patiently handled by PFN who has 3 mile P2P form and the Pauling Trained Marten who was highly touted in his “Stable Guide” in the Spring and another who has been given time, especially during their mid winter quiet spell (I define December / January as “mid winter”.

    Both shrapnel horses for a bit of fun.

  4. two very interesting bumpers at Kempton
    with all the big yards having runners

    hard to say which ones are there to win and which ones are running for experience
    last year a 33/1 chance trumped the big yards for Pam Sly

    Straight Red catches my eye for the future
    His only form so far is winning a maiden point in Ireland
    but Gay and Derrick Smith went to £300,000 to buy the horse.

    They have got plenty of money but to go that high they must to have fended of
    bids from the other big owners and it is also interesting that they sent him
    to Jonjo O’Neill rather than Elliott, Mullins or one of the other big trainers in Ireland

    Looking at his breeding I think they are thinking chaser rather than hurdler
    to pay that much.
    The betting doesn’t suggest today he will be trying or even ready
    but a horse to monitor closely.

  5. Another great ride by Bryony, this time on Alberta but I cannot rejoice at that at all.

    The horse off for 459 days, no discernable form prior to that from the Yard of a drugs cheat, banned from Training. The rules are simply too lax, I don’t care if Suzi Best is named as Trainer, we all know who has trained it, has happened before and will happen again.

    I sincerely hope for the integrity of racing that The Stewards and BHA will instigate an immediate investigation.

    This is NOT money talking, had the 3rd at nice odds covered the race each way but I am a passionate and determined advocate of absolute zero tolerance on drugs in sport, whatever the sport, once a cheat always a cheat, and I don’t care whether you have one horse in an old barn or 200 horses and train for the Queen or an Arab Ruler, zero tolerance should mean zero tolerance.

    1. To clarify his current and bigger ban is for “stopping horses” he had previously been found guilty of doping, so doubly reprehensible in my book.

      1. ??? Leaving aside the issues about the trainer etc… no horse would have been a shock winning that race? packed with lightly raced beasts… that horse had form in the book? only 2/7 in handicaps, 1/5 in handicap hurdles, some decent placed efforts in similar races, in a race type where the jockey can make even more of a difference. He’s clearly had his problems given age and fact only had 15 career runs or so… he has a lot of placed efforts to his name, was consistent before I assume an injury when last seen. Modern trainers getting them fit after big breaks is no shock these days.

        Not sure what they would be investigating. Disagree with your assessment of him! 🙂 My pin nowhere near it but not really a head scratcher. He’ll be routine tested etc. Sir Egbert’s for wasn’t any better/worse , on what they had done over hurdles say.

        If that horse were trained by someone else you wouldn’t have batted an eyelid would you?

        Right, I’ve a taxi and a plane to catch haha.

        1. Have to disagree, only UK career win was on Flat in a Grade 4 on Good Going at Epsom. Won a NHF for Gordon Elliott prior to that.

          Take Bryony out of the equation and it was impossible to back.

          Very mysterious sale from Best to “unknown” and back again to the Best after a few days in RPR record.

          If it had won for any Trainer stewards would have taken note.

          1. Oh yes not sure why I thought he’d won a hurdle. But only 0/7,4 p all hurdle runs. I’m personally never shocked when a lightly raced horse in said code wins. Esp one who has winning form to his name at some point and some ok placed efforts. I’m surprised at your surprise and vice versa no doubt! You’ve tipped a few winners recently..that hncp debutant for Dennis based on PtP form that had done nothing under rules from memory. Anyway. We’ll disagree on that. We’re it a Fergal O’brien we’d be saying a superb training performance!

          2. I would be saying that yes but then Dennis and Fergal are like comparing Usain Bolt to Best as Justin Gatlin, good guys v bad guys…LOL

          3. Nothing to do with Best but your point re P2P form.

            I do love analysing P2P form ; more specifically, looking at a P2P race and then mapping form in Rules races e.g have found a few who have beaten horses in P2P fields who are 10-15lbs below marks achieved by old P2P rivals who may have had more runs under rules, has paid real dividends for us past 2 years.

            This has led me largely away from “bumper/NHF” form as I increasingly think NHF horses are losing 12-18 months messing around whilst P2P horses are jumping real fences in real races in awful conditions.

            My favourite analogy would be a kid earning 20k a week in Chelsea U23’s playing games at half pace with no real competitive edge v a kid who is loaned out to Div 1 or 2 who is playing on far worse pitches, poor facilities, with hardened old pro’s and getting kicked from pillar to post. I think the latter and the P2P route is increasingly the way to go and in the last few years lots of money being paid for P2P horses.

            The one route I’ve never understood is those that buy a P2P horse and then spend 12 months in Bumpers/NHF makes no sense to me at all?

          4. I can’t profess to be an expert on Lasix, other than a perception that it is one of those drugs that stops a horse from feeling pain and thus can be trained harder and longer.

            Having spent some time working in the US; I am probably more blinkered than most to the institutionalised cheating over there in just about every sport via drug abuse. They either turn a blind eye to it; or are very lenient when cheats are found. I could go on and on I won’t bore you with the details but for every convicted non US drug cheat (like Ben Johnson and East German female athletes) there is a guilty but hidden US cheat like Carl Lewis and Florence Griffith Joyner ; who have been protected by the very body that should be charging them

            Royal Ascot shows us that when horses arrive here from countries where some drugs are legally allowed, they have an unfair advantage, irrespective of how long they have been “clean” in quarantine.

            I digress, it is a huge subject best left and horse racing is the tip (very very occasionally) of a huge iceburg.

  6. Ian and Josh
    The Best family must be mad to try anything against the rules for they both would get a life time ban from training and they will be being watched by the stewards.
    On a lighter note have just received a supply of boxing gloves along with a supply of buckets and spades for the sand any use to both of you?

    1. LOL ; I have huge respect for Josh but there are many things we have very different views on, that does not negate the respect; it probably enhances it from my perspective.

      Hey I’m an old man too late 50’s so boxing nope. I did go to a Pro Fight on one occasion where a workmate was a relative of a fighter – we were supporting a guy called Paul Chance (Midlands Champ) be about 1982/83 Dudley Town Hall; he fought a Rooney (uncle of Wayne) I sat in front row, got absolutely covered in blood. Rooney won it was brutal, we walked in the dressing room 10 mins after the fight and there sits Rooney and Paul arms round each other swigging cans of Guinness…proper guys, proper fighters; respect!

  7. Jim Best and his brother obviously sail close to the wind
    and the joke is not really that todays horse won but that the yard can still run under a another name.

    Karl Burke was warned off and his wife took the stable over
    very grey areas in horses racing.
    Goldophin had a trainer banned for drug cheating but nothing happened to the owners

    Barney Curley gets a decent horse makes sure it loses at least 10 races
    and then wham it goes in at 5/4.

    Jp McManus is a legendry punter but to be so he has to sometimes hide a horses ability
    to land a punt.

    That’s why I think it is a good idea to be with a trainer or jockey who is trying to make their name
    as at the beginning of their careers they are desperate to get loads of winners to entice owners

    The list is long

    Jockeys are the same get a decent 7lb claimer and they will give everything for another winner
    they know the only chance of making a name for themselves early doors is to ride plenty on winner
    The trainer latches on to the good kid with the claim and give the kid live horses
    If you are a youngster striking at about 5% for a retained trainer your chances are slim

  8. Peter
    JP McManus as a large string of horses with many trainers in England and Ireland yet the bookmakers shout about his large wagers all bookmakers have closed me down can only back on the Exchanges why is this a man in the know can back what he wants,you say that he sometimes hides a horses ability do the bookmakers get the nod.
    Ladbrokes for years were known to have the nod from Aiden O’Brien’s stable and when they priced up one of his horses in the morning shorter than any other bookmakers it was worth backing.
    Few weeks ago David Evans was fined for receiving better odds about one of his horses than you or i could get if i recall he told them that he was withdrawing his other runner in the same race giving valuable info to the bookmaker.

    1. Agree Colin I think it all depends on your angle on racing
      if it a hobby and you love the sport and a bit of intrigue
      then all these stokes and punts are all part of the fun.

      if you are betting larger amounts you want to know your horse/team/etc
      are really giving 100% and win or lose you have a chance.

      Fillies and mares in races against their own sex seems very consistent
      in the top grade and the form seems to stand up well

      at grade 1 level they can rack up a big sequence of wins

    1. Yes, very nice horse . I do spend a lot of time down in Malvern and David Dennis or somebody has spent fortunes on his facilities at Hanley Swan and starting to pay off. I think he is looking at what Ian Williams has had for a few years now profile wise and mapping similar path. Stunning place to train too.

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