TIPS
3.15 Muss
Full Jack – 1 point win – 12/1 (gen) 11/1 (gen)
Southfield Theatre – 1 point win – 7/1 (gen)
3.35 Sand
Yala Enki – 1 point win – 9/1 (gen)
Holly Bush Henry – 1 point win – 8/1 (gen)
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Musselburgh
Full Jack… This is his second run for the yard and I think this is a ‘trainer uplift’ although that isn’t based on any facts as such! Sandy Thompson is very good with these older horses and so is Rachael McDonald. They are very good with them over marathon trips. Given he came a decent fourth in this race last year I would like to think this has been the plan, with a prep over hurdles here LTO. With the jockey claim he is effectively 13lb lower than he was last year, as such has nothing on his back, and he does have a touch of class. He is lightly enough raced for his age, especially over fences, and at extreme trips. The put some headgear back on him which may help him focus also. He can be a bit tricky and I wanted a double figure price. The trainer is 6/21,12p with all runners here in the last year, trainer and jockey are 4/12,7p. I am hoping they are aggressive with him. McDonald is a bit like Bryony Frost in that she can get horses into a lovley rhythm and jumping fence to fence. Usually. There is some pace on here but i’d like to think she could adopt a position in the front 4 and be up there. I don’t like horses coming from a long way back at this track, although Dancing Shadow did just that last year. Of those at a double figure price he looked the most interesting to my eyes. Fingers crossed he can out-run his odds.
Southfield Theatre… I agonised and agonised over this one. My head says I should want a bigger price, 3-4 points more, given his profile and how he can race. I am also hoping they don’t get too much rain and it turns proper soft. I was deliberating for a while but decided I would be more annoyed if he won this and I wasn’t on, than the prospect of him getting outpaced, throwing in the towel, and coming nowhere, another point loaned back to the bookies. I also looked at Paul Nicholls’ stats with handicap chasers that ran in Heavy LTO, that Pulled Up and that today were running on Soft or better ground (ie the Heavy being the reason for the PU)… 6/19,9p,+72 all time, 4/6,5p, since 2013. Those stats tipped me over the edge! I don’t think this horse likes it very soft but he does have a touch of class at his best. With the 5lb claim he is very very well handicapped against some old form and his runs at Sandown over 29f suggest he should stay. He has also gone better for longer on recent starts since they were more aggressive on him. Frost will try and lead here or at least be right up there. Well I hope so, he has tried to make all on his last few starts and has been enjoying himself, until the ground has sapped him a bit I think. The tongue tie returns and Nicholls is in great form again, 4/14,5p the last 14 days. This is Frost’s first ride on him and some of these horses really do respond to her. I thought he was the one in this with a bit of proven class and he could bounce back on better ground. He is well handicapped, yard in form, races prominently, I think he will stay…ticked plenty of boxes and at 7/1 I convinced myself to have a go. If the Heavy wasn’t the reason for the PU the last day (yard was quiet then also) it will be a point gone. Fingers crossed, again.
Of the rest.. Bells N Banjos is a danger but I didn’t think 6s was generous given the 98 day break, the fact he can get behind in his races (generally not good around here) and he does have to prove he stays. Were he a bigger price i’d be more interested as he runs as if wanting a trip. I was happy to leave the rest for one reason or another.
Sandown
Yala Enki – this looks a tricky race where you could make a case for plenty. I thought 9s was a shade too big here and just allows for the chance that he could be shattered from his last run, and fade out tamely. That is a fear for a few in this, inc Final Nudge. This horse has been running well on recent starts (i’ll blame the CP for his poor Ascot run, and ground not soft enough) and was up there at Haydock for a very long way. That pace battle may have told in the end and there is a chance he is better over a stiff 24f rather than 26f. It won’t be as heavy here and that drop in trip should help. This boy has a touch of class, can carry big weights to victory, and importantly is a prominent racer. That has tipped me into backing him. They will try and make all here.. they may have to sit behind Loose Chips for a time (a chance his legs not as quick/if he is ahead he may be doing too much) but he should fade away at some point! Hopefully. He will be in the right spot to take it up. He is good RH, jumps well, and tends to keep galloping. I don’t think Venetia’s are going as badly as her stats suggest. Plenty of big priced horses that have done nothing, the odd winner and horse going close, and plenty of excuses for a few of them. The horse suggests he’s in form. He is handicapped to go in again. I thought there is a chance he out-classes these. Oh and Venetia has won this race twice in recent years, the horse ticks a few of my stats pointers also.
Holly Bush Henry – he raced prominently the last day and I hope James Bowen does the same, tracking Yala Enki- maybe those two will fight it out over the last! This horse is in superb form and is unexposed over fences and at this trip. He stays well and handles the mud and I think this track may suit him. He won a shade cosily at Fakenham and he just arrives here in winning form, not many can say that. Well, only one other. He still has upside potential and should go well. He may be outclassed near the end maybe but it is hard to say what his ceiling may be over fences. He has won a C2 over hurdles. They put CP on his for the first time here. He bolted up in first time blinkers and may be one that needs his mind cajoling as much as anything else. He has been very consistent and barring an accident should be bang there for me. His trainer is one to watch, with some very impressive stats from those horses he sends out.
Of the rest….
Final Nudge/Sametegal/Shanroe Santos made up my shortlist I think. The former was short enough for me given it’s his first run at the track over fences, he is 5lb above that Wincanton 2nd and he had a hard race LTO. Clearly I won’t fall off my seat if he wins and conditions look ideal. (although outstayed/out-battled at Wincanton maybe) But I thought his price was about right and not overly generous. I can live with him beating me at 5s. Shanroe Santos – Wadham has a good record in this but the horse can’t jump. Well he can but this season he has compromised his chances by taking the odd fence with him. They keep holding him up. Idiots. Given his jumping they really should try him from the front one day, setting the fractions. Maybe they will try that today. He has threatened to go well in a race of this nature, but if a few others run their race I think he could be out-classed here. I think they will hold him up, I think he may hit a fence or 5. I was happy to leave.
Sametegal is the interesting one and saver material possibly. Knowing my luck i have picked the wrong Nicholls horse in the two races! I wanted a bigger price given I don’t think he will stay. I can’t say that for sure but he isn’t exactly a strong finisher over 2m4/5f. In this ground it could take some getting. But, it is an unknown. 3m ‘could’ be the making of him. He is the one horse in the race with a ‘different’ and ‘interesting’ profile, generally up against a load of been there and done it handicappers (well, Longsdon’s could be anything but he is short given his chasing inexperience, ridiculous price and I can live with him bolting up at 6s, I could’t have it…this will be unlike anything he has faced…were he 12s+, then a different ball game).. that may make the difference. The yard is in form as we know and he has a touch of class. He should go well and may look like the winner at one stage, just whether he gets up the hill. If he does, I could be in trouble! Cogry may run a fine race but i’ll only back him again when Sam is on I think. (5/9 on the horse). Jamie is now 0/5 and the horse can headbutt a fence as we know. If he jumps to his best he won’t be far away. The Twiston Davies yard form put me off also- so many of his are stopping quickly after cruising- suggesting illness or many have missed vital work due to conditions at home on the gallops etc. (or the flu jab, or a combination of the lot!) I want to see some green shoots before wading into his again. There are none as yet. Bishops Road probably wants further and is another who can belt a fence. He stays well and if a slog, and he jumps, may not be far away. Backing two 10 year olds today who PU LTO was asking for trouble though! I may not have mentioned the winner but was happy to leave everything else.
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That’s the lot on the tipping front.
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MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES
Kerry Lee Chasers (12/1<)
1.15 Sand – Top Gamble (m1) / Gino Trail (m1/m2)
1.35 Weth – Grey Gold (m1)
3.35 Sand – Bishops Road (m1)
Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test
3.35 Sand – Vino Griego (14/1<)
1.15 Sand – Gino Trail (12/1<)
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That’s the lot for today.
GL with any bets,
Josh
22 Responses
Does anyone know why Brian Hughes is riding Barney Dwan at Musselburgh instead of Paddy Brennan?
I suspect it is owners decision.. he hasn’t been on a few of Fergals/Rooneys, Fergal would want him on but for whatever reason I suspect the owners have decided otherwise. I wouldn’t look at it as a negative if you like his chance etc.
3-00 Sandown
16/18 no headgear
18/18 5- 9y old (0/19 10/11y olds)
17/18 rated btwn 117 – 142
14/18 10st and 11st 3
17/18 top 3 place at least in last 3runs
17/18 2m4f highest distance win
17/18 LTO class 3+ run
18/18 LTO ran btwn 20.5f and 25.5f
18/18 LTO ran btwn 11 – 75 days
15/18 LTO finished btwn 1st and 5th
P.Nicholls 3/12
Jonjo 0/14
Qualifiers
Topofthegame ew
Golan venture ew
3-35 Sandown
20/20 bred Irish 10.GB 5.Fr 5
20/20 7 – 11 y olds
16/20 carried btwn 10st 4 and 11st 5
18/20 had at least a 1st or 2nd in last 3 runs
19/20 LTO ran btwn 23.5f and 33f
15/20 LTO ran Chelt 2.Sand 3.Kemp 3.Hayd 3.Cheps 2.Ascot 2
20/20 LTO ran Class 4+ 19/20 ran Class 3+
19/20 LTO ran btwn 6 – 90 days
18/20 LTO finished btwn 1st and 6th
Wadham 2/2 Le Reve won last 2 years
V Williams 2/18
Nicholls 3/24
P Middleton 2/3 hcap chases at course last 2 years
P Middleton and J Bowen 3/4 past 2 years.
Qualifiers
Holly Bush Henry ew
Shanroe Santos ew
205 Wetherby
Irish bred 5.french 3. USA (0/11)
16/18 no headgear
17/18 had at least a top 4 finish in last 3 starts
16/18 ran at distance previously
17/18 least 2 career wins
17/18 LTO ran btwn 15.5f and 17f
1319 LTO had top 4 finish.
Sir Chauvelin
3-45 Muss Scorpion princess ew
Longsdon good record with first time tongue ties and with horses running in Scotland.
Combined 1 from 2.
A winner and two 2nds on the trends front in two very tricky handicaps. A good interpretation of the stats Robert.
Wetherby 3-20, Bryden Boy 16-1 was beaten a distance lto but there is nothing as good as Head To The Stars in this and will appreciate the step up in trip, goes in soft/heavy ground and could be staying on past beaten horses at the end and worth a small punt at the price.
AW is not our forte and personally I think there is far too much of it and at least 2 of the tracks should be returned to turf (Southwell definitely would make a great Turf Flat/NH floodlit venue) and unless Kempton goes Chelmsford would make a great Motocross/Speedway/Long Track venue, especially if Newmarket open an AW track as who then will go to Chelmsford?. Wolverhampton have great facilities, a massive infield and I’d turf that for floodlit turf racing in autumn and spring and have a figures of 8 (like Windsor was) NH track in the middle – Dunstall park used to stage NH back in the day, remember going one Boxing Day as a young lad massive crowd!
Come to think of it Newmarket crowds away from Classics are dire, so can’t imagine anyone there on a wet winter Friday night if the did open AW (long touted option)
Anyway I digress, I must be feeling better as I am in Richard Wilson mode today…
So, for what its worth our AW man has sent me a few; he knows his stuff but I frankly just don’t have space for him most days, so will put a few on here-:
Lingfield 2.00 Kimberella e/w – looks like last run was a fitness one and nice mark here
Lingfield 3.05 Fire Fighting e/w – yard in superb form and nicely drawn could outrun odds
Hi Ian
Totally disagree with your sentiments about AW racing should be more of it,especially when the clerk of the course is dithering about whether a mediocre National Hunt fixture should go ahead in mid week or not.
Over the past few years AW as taken vast steps forward and most trainers have access to AW gallops to train their horses on and the top trainers are now running their horses at these tracks for myself i see AW as the future.
My January figures mainly achieved on the AW are to
£60 stakes at Betfair SP + 2786.35
Febuary £60 stakes BFSP + 571.06 and i missed a 12/1 winner did not look at BFSP return
My bets at Kempton tonight are all £60 win
6.15 Sea Fox
7.15 Windsor Cross
8.15 Bogarous
no doubt they will all lose tonight
Nice AW tips Colin, keep em coming.
Any insight into how you came up with those 3 last night would be great.
Colin
Firstly great figures, well done.
We will have to agree to disagree about AW as I find it bland, boring and to be honest if all horse racing was on AW (or indeed if I lived in US where most of it is) I simply would not be involved.
The joy of Turf Racing for me are the nooks and crannies, the dips and hollows; the damp patches and mud and to excuse a pun, everything about AW is just artificial.
Each to their own and there is room for both but I think that 4 AW tracks is more than enough and most of it is low grade Bookie fodder. One aspect that really does annoy me too is when Lingfield and Kempton are allowed to take centuries old Classic Flat Races and Classic Flat Trials and run them on AW. If they can’t run them on Turf they should be re-distributed to Turf Tracks.
I have noticed that having clamoured for an AW track in the North, that entries at Newcastle are generally very poor, another historic venue has been vandalised, although in fairness to all but BHA everyone wanted it at Catterick but BHA could not would not wait.
I wish you the very best on the AW, really do; but to me it is similar to playing football on plastic pitches – that went well!
I guess Victor Meldrew lives on at SP2A lol!
If you back winners you love the sand; if you dont it is not your favoured surface. You do need to know the different surfaces and which horses go on what? The standard of trainer and horse appearing on the all weather has gone up. I guess that not only prize money has gone up on occasion but also flat trainers need to keep going through the bleak mid winter to keep the money coming in.
Not my favourite but it is getting better. It will be interesting to see if it becomes more popular in betting shops once they cut back stakes on FBOT’s. Better than greyhounds I think?
Seen some terrible things at Dog Tracks Martin back in my days involved in Speedway Racing. Lots of the tracks (many no longer here) were dual Dogs and Bikes and some of the conditions and things seen were horrendous.
I used to train at Hackney on a Saturday afternoon when weather permitted in the winter, used to have to wait for the morning BAGS to finish, so would wait in the bar where it was warm, amounts bet and dogs stopped was eye opening and mouth watering! Seen similar at White City; Crayford; Cradley Heath; Monmore; the previous Perry Barr; Leicester; list goes on.
I think Dog welfare has improved a lot since then though; certainly with re-homing ; hope so!
Yes, I had shares in dogs at Catford and Crayford. There was a lot of chicanery in South London back in the 70’s/80’s. I meant re betting. Dogs are a bit boring to back in my eyes if you are watching on a TV. I have 3 dogs myself, so am always in the dog welfare camp.
Ian or is it Victor?haha
Under stand where you are coming from brought up on NH racing and was always down at Dai Williams yard at Great Shefford when he had 80 horses in training mainly National hunt.
However Peter Savill and the bookmakers did racing little good with all the extra meetings and most mid week NH is poor standard with small fields,take today for instance 3 meetings 21 races their are 15 races with 7 or less runners not good for punting.
NH racing will come under more pressure from the PC brigade over the next few years take a look at the Grand National what they have done to the fences for me they have devalued the race would Red Rum have won a national over these fences doubt it,again no one wants to see horses being destroyed, i do feel that that their are to many mediocre NH fixtures and the PC brigade will ruin it hopefully not in my life time.
Agree about Field sizes and I think we have 2 fundamental issues. Firstly too many meetings, secondly, the BHA need an Atlas and some teaching in basic Geography and ideally one meeting south of Worcester; one meeting south of Doncaster and one meeting North of Doncaster on any day when 3 meetings. The way they “pack” Fixtures is a joke. Better spread would = better attendances and bigger fields imho.
I agree about National and the dumming down
I agree with you about geographical spread but would add that I’ve never understood why Ludlow and Taunton were racing on the same Thursday afternoon – as a different example of the poor programme planning.
Lucky boy Josh, lucky boy!!!! ..deservedly so tho!!!
oh i deserved some luck the amount of 2nds and 3rds i’ve backed haha. It all evens out. Horses all back fine that’s the main thing. You make your own luck in this game, i’ll take what I can get!
Lucky in the 15.15, but unlucky in the 15.35!
Well done Josh, excellent tipping, i was on yours, were you on mine?? haha
well done, nope sadly not! his general price this morning was too short for me given profile. IN the unexposed could be anything but I wanted bigger than 6s, given the bigger field. and the fences at track. He is a big horse and has done that well. Annoyed Yala came down- been a strange afternoon! I can’t complain, profit made.
Tipped the wrong one in the Notes!! 10/1 winner for Russell. A strange strange day. But out in front. We move on.
Luck, or chance, always regresses to the mean over time and so sometimes it will come down on our side. I was on Full Jack and Holly Bush Henry and so won a few quid, well done.
What about that Lucinda Russell in handicap hurdles at Musselburgh micro! Kelpies Myth won the 3.45 12/1 > 13/2. 3/4 in 2018 +30.5 at either early price available or SP (Depending on what I took).
She was 2/29 with handicap debutants last 2 years and 0/7,0p at Muss…that put me off from going full steam but as per members notes, may have had a saver! Trust me to tip the wrong sodding one haha. A decent enough day. On we go.