TIPS
none.
MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES
Tom George Chasers
2.50 Leic – Some Are Lucky (any odds)
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Another quiet day today on here.
CHELTENHAM... a post will appear this morning on ‘Ante Post’ bets for the Festival… not my AP bets (i don’t place many ever) but yours. Last year there was some good discussion and I know a few of you enjoyed reading the thoughts of others and sharing your own ideas etc.
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18 Responses
The crafty e/w banker today may be Un Noble in the 3.45 at Ayr
Has excellent form at trip and in this kind of Going, what may be less well advertised but in some comments from Trainer last year (copied in to our Tracker) is that after a promising season previous time round last year had a lot of problems with stomach ulcers and also needed work on constant niggles with back/ribs.
Recent update hidden away in RP analysis indicates horse now getting fully fit and can also be worked more as ulcers/back niggles have been sorted.
Looks a solid e/w banker at 5/1 with the info.
tut tut tut!! Go hard at that price or don’t bother haha. EW banker.. shocking 🙂 Yep David Peat put him up in members’ comment, these are his ideal conditions and first time he has had them really since his last win. has bounced back from PU to win before. Was a couple of points bigger earlier, 4s may be getting on short side.
McCain’s will lead again.. chance he bounces but he could follow up… rather than EW play, the reverse forecast may be more fun! Expect big runs from both, we shall see.
EW under 5s, that’s a form of blasphemy in these parts!!
Josh
LOL can’t do smilies too technical??…
“if you can’t win don’t lose” and all that – if 4/1 though has to be a small win bet.
David Peat – I know that name; and one of those names you know = respect ; like Gary Priestley and Gavin Priestley etc, so if he’s on, all good!
I prefer, “when you win, win bigger” haha. We won’t drag ourselves over the hot coals on those well known differences!
Ah, smilies.. the : ) = 🙂 (but without the gap)
I tend to agree that there are times when you can back a 4/1 shot as a solid e/w bet however given his profile he looks like a really bad e/w bet. He either wins or runs badly and seems about as inconsistent as you can get. Only the one place when he hasn’t won. Obviously after I said that he is clearly coming second.
just the one for me today Leicester 1-45 Malapie 13-2, down in grade and distance goes on heavy should lead and hopefully make all 🙂 £4 win.
Well done Martin, hasn’t made all but stays much further and in that ground/wind, that’s made all the difference. A day for the plodders! Well placed by connections. Looks horrendous up that hurdles finish. Ploughed field.
on that theory Josh does it make INIESTA a risky bet as he has never won on heavy
indian reel was 3rd over 2m3 on desperate ground at Warwick only beaten 4l
so he is the one for me
unless you have backed him already you have missed the price haven’t you? was 4s now 13/8, may well bolt up but I wouldn’t be taking a price like that in these conditions personally. And it’s a novice claiming hurdle..poor quality animals. who knows, a race type out of my comfort zone. GL
Good effort Martin, he stayed on.The favourite seemed to go early with the owners grandson on. Who knows?
great pick Martin, I shortlisted him last night but something made me not back him, I suspect it was his handicap mark, but yes he stayed on the best in a slow motion finish, well done
Ah, that is annoying. Can’t say i backed him haha..time i read comment the price had gone a bit… try not to let handicap mark put you off that type if it was the only red mark you had against him…only 2/9 in his life, and was on a mark above his last win..but importantly he had yet to prove he couldn’t win from the mark.. that last run was a C2 and can be excused… in the end stamina has made all the difference and mark irrelevant..but I say that with hindsight of course. Then again, your approach to looking at handicap marks probably ensures you miss plenty of losers etc… but i’d still have counted him as ‘unexposed’ in conditions, so less emphasis on ratings..well, that’s how I view these things. Next time
are 14 runner handicaps put into the program to make the bookies loads of money
everything is against the punter big over round poor e/w terms
loads of very poor animal getting into barging matches
anyone who can win in these races please let me know
Plenty on these pages who would call those race types their bread and butter!!
I mean I don’t play in too many C5s, and certainly on days like this at Leicester it is tricky, but many a good bet in those race types, esp handicap hurdles if you are focused on unexposed runners.
Josh
On the contrary, I think that these C5 Handicaps are where Bookies are most vulnerable.
They make a Betting Market on recent form. These are poor horses, their only consistency is their inconsistency. The Bookies blindly think “one good run means another”; these horses “win in turn when they are off marks that indicates are reasonable”.
A handicapper is handicapped that means it can and will win a race when the handicapper relents, when the handicapper relents fully can be 2-3-4-5 years after the last win but if the horse runs consistently to that level its chance will come again.
Too often the logical way in is to look at the top of the market, that’s fine in better quality races but in these races with moderate and inconsistent horses is it a way to ruin as the law of averages dictates the chance of any form of consistency is low.
So far from being Bookies benefits they can be Punting heaven!
For the benefit of clarity was replying to Peter there not Josh…(how do you do a wink)….that’s wInk!
free money
money in the 3.35 at Chelmsford
£15 e/w FURZE LADY 40/1 LADBROKES
£100 E/W REGINA NOSTRA 5/1 LADBROKES
LAY £10 FURZE LADY 59/1 BETFAIR WIN
LAY £70 REGINA NOSTRA 7.8/1 BETFAIR WIN
LAY £20 FURZE LADY 6.6 BETFAIR PLACE
LAY £140 REGINA NOSTRA 1.62 PLACE
What ever result you get you win
In the late fifties and early sixties the easiest was to get banned was to back the first three in the betting eachway in 8 or 9 runner two year old and novice hurdles. If the fav was odds on so much the better. Once the 1/5th odds arrived that was me finished as regards eway betting. Apart from betting on photo finishes – pre camera days- that is how Alex Bird made it pay. Since Josh kindly pointed me in the direction of Sp2a I have taken up eway betting but miss the 1/4 odds a place!