(2016: +75 points ; 2017 18/185, +79.5; 2018 2/12,4p, +12.5)
On The Road – 1 point win – 14/1 (gen) PU
Good To Know – 1 point win – 14/1 (Lad/Coral/BV) 12/1 (gen) PU
Shortlist: On The Road / Good To Know / Missed Approach / Cresswell Breeze
On The Road.. I tipped him last week and similar logic applies. I saw no reason not to have another go, at the odds. He travelled and jumped well for the first three fences LTO before he came to grief…i think he was unsighted but he jumped the fence fine, and may have jumped into the back of one He lost his back end on landing. It was very soft but at least didn’t have a hard race. Unexposed, ‘could be anything’ in handicap chases still, and over marathon trips. He may not stay but that’s why I wanted a price. He could improve for it. Wedge returns which is a positive given his record on the horse. I just hope he gets round so we can see whether he stays or not. Inexperience may cost him but he had a more interesting profile than most in here. I’d be sick if he walloped this lot and I wasn’t on.
Good To Know.. a repeat of his second in this last year would be good enough to be bang there. There is no One For Arthur in this and he stayed on well enough. He will race prominently and be in the right spot. He has track form. He has won after a PU before and given he unseated on his first run of the season, I suspect he needed it, given the way he faded. That or there is an underlying issue. I also went through his profile and found that on the third run of the season, since 2012 he is … Won / 2nd / 2nd / Won (after a PU run before) / 2nd (in this race last year)… that was enough for me to tip him, and was the deciding factor I think. Kerry is in form and I expect a bold show, if he is a1. I’d like him to be sent off at 12s< to boost confidence but the odd one of hers runs a monster race when unfancied and I wont let that put me off.
Of the rest… I won’t put you off Missed Approach if you like the odds. I thought he was short enough/about right/no value. That last run may well be the best piece of recent form in this. That race is always one of the deepest/most competitive/most ferociously run handicap chase of the season. He was bang there approaching 3 out before two G1 horses swooped past. He also didn’t benefit from the standing start and I expect him to be bang up the front today. His best recent runs have come in first time cheekpieces and first time blnkers LTO. There is a chance a return to CP doesn’t have the magic effect again. That’s not a problem if he is 8s/10s+, but he isn’t. He has 11-12 on his back and has to prove he will see this trip out in testing conditions. I can live with him winning at those odds. I won’t fall of my seat in shock, he is the right fav I think.
Cresswell Breeze..we she travels well, jumps well, does stay I think (whether she will in this class is the question, but it is a weak G3) and the ground shouldn’t be a problem. In the end I have gone with two at bigger odds from my shortlist. I wondered if the handicapper may have her, if she may be out-stayed by something, or if she will be good enough. A repeat of that last run may be good enough, but I doubted whether it would be. She’s entitled to take her chance and another that I won’t put you off if you like her chance. I was a bit on the fence.
I should mention Milansbar (WON, pass me the Opus Dei kit) who I tipped LTO and he ran a shocker. He was taken off his feet from the off, sulked a bit, didn’t take to the cheekpieces and the jockey never stopped pushing. He needs the blinkers to work and Bryony to work her magic. That she may do, but I had my doubts. I also think this may not be testing enough and he could get taken off his feet again here. He is a slow old boat and in the end I have left him. It would be a sickener if dourly stayed on and beat this lot. Gulp. Surely he wont!
I wasn’t keen to be with any others at the prices, for one reason or another.
I wanted it to be under 10 minutes and failed spectacularly again! It’s 30 mins, but packed with some useful snippets. Some of you may enjoy it! 🙂
GL whatever you play on.
Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live test
3.25 Weth – Special Wells (12/1<)
2.40 Kemp – I Shot The Sheriff (12/1< guide)
3.35 Warw – Good To Know (12/1<)
G McPherson (any odds)
2.15 Weth – kayf Blanco