Members Daily Post: 17/12/17 (complete)

Section 1 , test zone (inc AW)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

 

Southwell

12.25 – Global Domination (m2)7/2 3rd

3.35 – Dandy Duke (hncp hurdle) H1 I3 G1 7/4 S4  WON 7/4>6/4 

 

CarlisleAbandoned 

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 3rd Dec)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (29/163, +111.4) (1 point win bets)

None.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Irish Angles

12.30 Thurles  – Wishmoor (12/1< best, 1x 66/1 winner) 3rd

 

TTP All Weather

Chelmsford

2.25 –

Amazing Grazing (all hncps) H3 11/2

Tellovoi (all hncps) I1 G3 6/1  S2 S5

2.55 – Arnarson (m1) ES H3 4/1  S3

3.25 – Colourful Career (m1) ES 15/2 S3

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

nothing today.

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

26 Responses

  1. Welshman ref Sean Bowen from Britishhorseracing.com
    27 November 2.30 Kempton
    Sean Bowen the rider of the winner Play The Ace was suspended for 6 days for using his whip in the incorrect place after the last.

  2. Ian,

    Re: Starchitect post – whilst I echo all your comments i am so angry about the incident. The horse fell into an hole/bad piece of ground in the home straight at Cheltenham. That is unforgivable when you are dealing with what is already the toughest sport. I have been with horses all my life and they are strong, athletic, quirky animals who frustrate and delight in equal measure but when horses and jockeys risk their lives every day for sport then they must, must, must get the best possible support from the venues that put the meets on. So upset about it. Cheers Ben

    1. Cheers Ben, i don’t think it’s as isolated as it appears. I used to notice some awful holes in the ground at some courses when i used to go regularly…. Mention it to someone and you’d get the big eye.
      I had an uncle on my dads side who bred horses in Ireland, and he’d go spare and lash out if he found an untreated risk… especially after continuous heavy weather….parts of the ground can go. I wonder do they walk the courses now?

      Tony Mc.

  3. Apologies for my abysmal performance at Newcastle today. Blushes somewhat saved by a late winner to finish 3 pts down. A better performance at Wolves gave us two shortish priced winners for 3.5pts profit, so if you followed them all you should’ve been around breakeven depending on odds you got.

    I have still to crack Newcastle. For some reason the same method doesn’t seem to work there so more homework required to find a better angle (or just give it a miss!!).

    AW action at Chelmsford tomorrow. Qualifiers with odds taken are as follows:
    1.15 Barbara Villiers 6/1
    1.50 Master of Heaven 4/1
    2.25 Tellovoi 6/1 & Broughtons Knight 4/1
    2.55 Fredricka 11/1

    1pt win each horse.

    Good Luck

    1. Ken….. No need to spare your blushes on here, I don’t think any of us have a system/method that works for every type of race on every track. For example…. even on the AW when I look at my sires database, almost all of them appear to have a bogey track where it just doesn’t happen for their progeny, even though on a different left handed track with the same surface and similar sharp turns they have a prolific strike rate.

      It’s just part of the uncertainty of it all that provides us with the opportunity to find the value in the first place.

  4. going for another biggie today Southwell 2-05 Pontresina J: Conor Shoemark T: O Sherwood 50-1, won a p2p over 2m4f and although only 9/16 on racecourse debut over hurdles did show some ability and should shape fitter and come on for that run.

  5. Got on my pc to late but top stuff Nick…..It looks like Sean Bowen is back after his sentence….[mouth zipped]

    Tony Mc.

    1. Yeah I have only had 2 bets today both winning. Just wish they would sort their staking size since that’s twice they’ve let the bookies off lightly in races in Ireland.

      1. yep i’m surprised you don’t have at least 1 point win on theirs now Nick! Although in fairness, having looked up to results up to 10th December… the ROI for ‘advised stakes’ is very similar to more standardised staking. Not much in it.

        Have you been keeping a running P/L since you started adding the staking to your tips a few weeks back? Get the impression that must be looking rather healthy….

        Well done today, I’m only just catching up with comments, missed that winner sadly.

        1. I generally follow a service as advised by the person running it and I trust them to research to work out what is optimal but yeah may break that rule from next month.

          Yeah since the start of September I am up 108.91 points. Interestingly 82.78 points of that is just from my Sunday tips so maybe I should be taking the rest of the week off.

          1. yep, not bad!! So between us since Sept 1st we’ve creamed nearly 220 points with your tips + ‘notes’ .
            Interesting on the Sunday stats, must be something in that??

            Staking – is very tricky – but as a minimum i’ll always bang the 1 point level stakes approach, or as you do 1 pt EW etc – given that the process to determine tip X is often the same, as is any judgement of value say, and I have never understood torturing yourself, in an unscientific manner, about what stake to then have on. Certainly when it comes to a minimum level, clearly there are times you may be more confident and double up etc. Well, that’s my view anyway. Coming up with a value pick is hard enough, without then deliberating what stake size to have on.

          2. I have been pondering the Sunday thing I guess the obvious one is in theory given I don’t work Saturday I am fresher (I can’t remember if I have mentioned before by my day job is as a professional indemnity insurance underwriter so certainly mentally taxing) but there really isn’t enough of a sample to make conclusions. Two winners would have been in races I managed to get right for the 2nd year running (The Greatwood and the 6f finale on the Sunday card at York which follows the Ebor meeting) I think a lot of tipsters take Sunday off so potentially there are a lot more value opportunities. It could be down to the fact that the fields are more my ideal size level (8-11 runners) but not sure if that differs that much from the rest of the week. Something to ponder and track. Does make it easier to drag myself out of bed on a Sunday.

  6. Yes…a cracking day Chris…I disobeyed order’s and went a full bet as Simple Steps is a ground expert from my notes.
    Not wanting to be greedy…but we had visitors and Missed Nick’s great tip…Grrr!

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