Members Daily Post: 10/12/17 (complete)

a quiet day ahead…

A quiet day ahead on the racing front with both UK meetings abandoned and it could well be a quiet week.

Saturday ended up being a bit of a disaster on many a front…

Really Super… well if you knew nothing about the horse you’d just say she didn’t handle the ground etc. Sadly that wasn’t the main excuse. Although it wasn’t ideal she handled it ok. The run confirmed that all her issues are in the head. In effect she pulled herself up and she couldn’t work out if she wanted to run or not as they headed out down the back. She has walked in ears pricked and full of energy. Jack wasn’t happy with her efforts, or lack of. So, we have our work cut out with that one. She has plenty of ability to win races if we ever find the key. She will get a rest now for a couple of months as she has been on the go for a while. When she returns I think we will be trying the various factors that I would put in the ‘doing something different’ category – step up in trip / headgear / drop in class… there is a chance she just isn’t very good and doesn’t want to be a racehorse. I suspect one day we may try riding her cold, stone last, in a big field, and trying to creep into it. She may prefer to come through horses. Depending on how that goes i’d be tempted to throw some blinkers on and send her to the front. I’m sure we’ll find the key at some point. Frustrating. But that’s horse racing for you. And she came back safe and sound, which is the main thing.

Elsewhere there wasn’t too much to cheer… Beat That clearly has a handicap hurdle or three in him. I thought he received an ‘interesting’ ride there and think he could have won that race. Given his profile I can fully understand why they wanted to be patient on him. They no doubt wanted to get him enjoying his racing again. He travelled and jumped well I thought and was never really put into the race. One to watch.

My free tips have hit the skids a bit. I hovered around 99-106 points for a couple of weeks, and now am down to +84.5 or so. I don’t feel ‘in form’, clearly, nor really out of it. Plenty have run with credit including yesterday. Blacklion – there are always things you can improve on in this game and ‘ante post’ betting is one of them, certainly when a clear bet like this appears. Post his second at Wetherby I wrote on here about him being aimed at the Becher and what a good chance he would have. He was 15/2, 8/1 at that time. Clearly that was the time to back/tip him, given he was going to run unless he got injured. I couldn’t back him at his odds on the day but he won as I thought he might, which probably makes taking him on with 3 points another dubious decision. It was quite an afternoon for his owners. ‘Big Nige’ and team Blacklion were out in force in the owner/trainers lounge and they screamed the house down when Ben Bens won at Sandown. Well done them. Nice people to boot, having had a quick chat with them.


Back at some point.



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9 responses

  1. Hindsight eh, such a wonderful tool! Onward’s and upwards or forwards, I’ve recently started betting for real on 3 years of research, hard work, toil and trouble and plenty of doubt that it could possibly work.

    The biggest thing for me was fear of it failing once I’d taken that leap, which is why it’s taken me so long to take the plunge. I was happy with watching it work without leaving the comfort zone of not committing to the reality of making it work.

    Its been a roller-coaster as this game is, emotionally and financially. I’ve had up to 34 losers that have decimated profits but never stopped believing and am determined to keep going without veering from the path right down to the last stake in the betting bank, which I’ve pretty much done already losing around a 200 pt profit and now slowly creeping back up.

    The reason I’m posting this drivel is because I endured a profitless Saturday too on top of a very mediocre week and the thoughts of whether this will work started creeping back. That was until my very last bet of the day in the 7:45 at Wolvs, Never Back Down which is why I’m writing this…NEVER BACK DOWN!!!!!
    Drivel complete.
    Enjoy your race free snowy Sunday.

    1. Hi Chris,

      I am a full time punter and am involved in 4 sports including horse racing. I am unsure from your message whether you are full time or not? If you need some thoughts on approaches for full time punting email me.

      This site is excellent but is for the recreational punter, which is fine and to be expected. I do appreciate the very good input from Josh and the Members. Josh mentions above the ante post angle and if you think a horse is going to run back it ante post. I have a lot of success with this, ala Withhold, Total Recall and Politologue recently.

      Good luck.

      1. Hi Martin,
        I have a day job, so no not full time. I found it impossible to monitor my betting, manage the systems I use and work so I have automated the process freeing up my time. I hope to make enough in the next 6 months to gradually reduce working and eventually stop. So full time is the aim. In the meantime things are going the right way and I’m managing to keep my discipline, detach myself from the emotional side of things (mostly!), get used to the swings and crunch all the numbers. I just found the Never Back Down winner poignant because I know if I stick to my guns I’ll come out on top in the end. Now that I’ve finally decided to do something about it rather than shying away in case it failed and see it working and making money for me instead of looking at what I could of won the dream is slowly becoming a reality, for now at least. Plenty more downswings to come though. Just follow the plan.

        1. OK Chris, good luck. The most difficult thing about full time is the mindset. Be selective, look for value, dont lose your bottle when it comes to betting big, keep to 1% max of bankroll re bets on racehorses etc.

          1. Yep, I get value. As for staking that’s level stakes and only increases when the bank grows accordingly.

  2. I think sometimes we aren`t able to see the woods for the trees in this game. Although every now and then we manage to find a little acorn that we can nurture!
    Blaklion was fantastic! Ante post bets are always the biggest of all gambles, anything and usually everything goes wrong before the off.
    As i set off yesterday morning for Aintree, there was a good 2 inches of snow settled on the train tracks and i thought, “We will all be lucky if the meeting is on, never mind whether Blaklion wins!?”.
    Even at the track, it did look unraceable, but, race they did and what marvellous racing it was. I have always been a firm supporter of the “Class horses will win in any ground!”.
    Will Blaklion win the National? I hope so, but, even NTD did not enthuse confidince in the post race press conference, stating that he just ran out of gas in this years National and the Becher had always been his short term target!
    Out of the race, i think Federici is the most interesting, if he lines up in April i would be confident he can give Blaklion a run for his money!
    The other danger Gas line boy ,who ran them all ragged after nearly being brought down in the Grand Sefton would also be of interest, even at the grand old age of 12 next year, (anyone who knows the National history, will surely remember Amberleigh House and how old he was!).
    For now though, i will bask in that limelight of tipping Blaklion weeks ago and thank Josh for his wise words that built my confidence up to back him in the first place.
    I will probably now give the auld enemy some of the winnings back over the next few weeks, but, as Josh says “It`s all about opinions!”, how you interpret them is the key to successful punting.
    If you beleive you will win long term, you will, as long as you don`t go chasing that “big” win.
    How you take the knocks when things are bad will shape your punting, now and in the future!
    Anyways, just wanted to say thanks to all of the contributors on here and what makes it an interesting site is that everyone has an opinion, long may that always be the case!!

  3. Fergal Mael Duin Fontwell Monday 14:15 1.5pt win-I think Fergal looks a little bit big and I thought the race was likely between him and the favourite. We know he likes the track, he stays the trip and won’t mind the ground. Both Tizzard and Cobden are in good form still. The winner from his last race ran a creditable 3rd in the London National on Saturday. He has been dropped back to his last winning mark. The favourite could be anything however he is up 15lbs and is carrying 12st1lb in what is likely to be quite testing ground over 2.5f further than he has run before. The only reason the 2nd fav is 3/1 is due to the trainer since he has done nothing to date to prove tomorrow will suit. Of the rest Leo Luna definitely will need the run, Mendip Express hasn’t ran outside of hunter chase territory and has a more than dubious jockey on board and Howlongisafoot does appear to stay the trip and most of his recent form has been when they’ve changed headgear.

    1. If FP goes ahead the South has taken some snow and some rain Sunday and so the ground must be mushy. Look for horses with big feet, preferably webbed.

      1. I don’t know about big feet but definitely went with one that should be able to handle conditions and doesn’t have a massive amount of weight on his back.

        Btw sorry for the slightly overzealous comments yesterday mate. I probably overindulged on the bottomless prosecco at lunch!

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