V Williams November (extended into Dec – test) (16/1<)
3.00 Ling – Cloudy Beach
Tom George Chasers (any odds)
12.50 Ling – Get Rhythm
Trainer/Jockey Combo Live Test
12.50 South- Cracking Find (12/1<)
As a ‘bonus’, hopefully, with any luck..(probably cursed now…) some Members’ Content…
From the ‘tipping’ / notes section… (this is where I look through all my stats qualifiers, which are based on trainers, and see if I really like anything at the prices etc…)
Test/trial : ‘NOTES’ (01/09/17-) (28/151, +117) (1 point win bets) (+£1170 to £10 bets since Sept 1st)
1.50 South – Skipthecuddles – 1 point win – 9/1 (gen) UP 8/1
2.20 South – Sir Egbert – 1 point win – 7/1 (gen) UP 4/1
Hmm…well no total shocks there…Skipthecuddles didn’t budge in price really which had be concerned and after 2 flights it was clear he wasn’t winning… you don’t hold up a horse last around Southwell, and race them 5 wide, if you wish to get competitive! 🙂 That’s the handicapping game and in the trackers he goes. Now, if I were the trainer asked to explain the ride I would say ‘we have ridden him more aggressively the last twice and he has cut out very quickly, he has his quirks/problems, and we were keen to get him finishing off his race…we hoped he’d be good enough to get involved and would have more left at the finish’ – you couldn’t say much to that as a steward! But he wasn’t given much of a chance…i’ll have to watch it again but I don’t think he had much in the tank come the end, the race had gone by the time he turned in… it could be they have a plan…it could be this is as good as he is at the moment…his last three runs have been poor and he now has questions… one to note… Sir Egbert blew a gasket and was keen again the bugger. I don’t mind backing 4/1 shots at 7s, a small positive. Lacey has a few youngsters on his hands that as yet haven’t learnt how to race properly…they will be well handicapped when they do!! 🙂
Skipthecuddles… well at 9/1 he is worth a play here. He has a few questions/niggles that I think are built into his price. He has that ‘magic formula’ albeit not as exciting as some.. he is a stats qualifier / lightly raced / unexposed in this sphere (3rd handicap hurdle run) / he drops in class (<10k C3, it is a weaker C3 to LTO) / second run after a break / change in going … He was pitched into the Neptune in March and then sent over to Punchestown. I think that is some indication of what they think of him and he really should be going close here. He out-ran his 66/1 odds in the former. The niggles? Well that PU LTO is a concern…there is a chance he needed the run (the market/his SP may not support that theory though) and that he hated heavy…or the two combined found him out. Many a trainer in heavy ground will instruct jockeys to ease off a horse once all placed chance is gone, esp on their first run of the season. There really is no point in bottoming out a horse in such a way. He has weakened markedly on his last two starts so that is a concern, there could be something up with him. The ground is the other unknown.. it is impossible to say at the moment what his preferred conditions are as performances in non handicaps are only useful up to a point as class can get you a long way in those, even if you hate the going. Again, it comes down to price. 9s allows me to roll the dice and be wrong. I would like to see some market support but then again this trainer has winners at all prices inc plenty of drifters. It is a fine balance, the pros versus the cons, but his profile and what they have done with him to date (as an indication of what they think of his potential) has made him worth a stab at 9s. If I was sure he would run his race that is a few points too big to my eyes.
Sir Egbert… I want to get in the habit of using all the stats content on these members’ pages as potential ‘tipping fodder’ and this Tom Lacey angle is doing well at the moment… history is being made here I think…outside of the Albert Bartlett at the Festival (50/1 + 12/1 winners tipped on here in last 4 years…you do remember those, Very Wood the biggest priced horse I’ve landed in my blogging life to date…need a 66/1 shot next!) I think this will be the first even non-handicap/maiden/novice hurdle I have tipped in…so, we all know what happens now. But I think this looks a 2 or 3 horse race and at 7s i’ll play. He ticks the angle below and Tom Lacey is in fine form… 3/11,6p last 14 days, 6/26,13p last 30 days. I wanted a bit more than that though so I had a look at his track stats…in non-handicaps at Southwell in the last five years (hurdles+NHF) he is 6/23,8p, +44 SP!.. Dunne has ridden one of those to victory here from five rides. All of that was enough to lure me in. There is a chance he comes on for his last run where he did do plenty- he does seem a bit headstrong and will need to settle better. The first half mile could be crucial here. If he does then he will go very close. The ground is an unknown… soft is clearly no issue but Good is a question… he may relish it he may hate it. Again, the price allows the play in my view. On what these horses have done on the track to date he has the best GG speed figure by far and is up there on Inform. So, another positive.
Of the others in the race.,. well I am happy to take on Skelton’s who seems short enough given that profile/what he did the last day. He didn’t find much for pressure and they reach for the TT here. He would have been fit although lost to a 2/9 shot so wasn’t expected to win. Still, it was a 3 runner race and he has questions. Tom George is 3/6,5p here in maiden hurdles in the last 730 days… and he has won this race twice, so he has to be a main danger. But this one has a ground unknown, a fitness question, and it is his first hurdle run. All of that makes 3s seems fair rather than overly generous. The rest in here look like they may be out to get a handicap mark/build up experience, and there are no other trainer stats for this race type here that caught my eye.
Plenty to like about his chance in the context of price. Let’s hope he settles early and is thereabouts jumping the last. He ran the last day as if they want to get a win with him, rather than playing about to get a handicap mark. It may be we need to wait for his handicap debut but he’ll be winning for us at some point soon! 🙂
And, you can have one of today’s videos that I record every now and then, I should do more…
7 Minute Snapshot (seriously, it is only 7 minutes!!).. I’ve taken a flick through the Lingfield card using the trainer pointers in HRB… these have served me well as starting points for the two most recent ‘through the card’ notes.. they are simply that… there is no analysis here… 7 minutes that you can watch with a notepad that highlights some horses you may wish to take a closer look at, simply based on the trainer stats. You may also want to take note of the ‘today’s jockey’ stats to the right hand side that I didn’t really focus on…
That’s the lot for today, oh and of course you can always try my unique club for 7 whole weeks for just £7, and see if it is for you.