Free Daily Post: 05/12/17 (complete)

TIPS

none.

 

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

V Williams November (extended into Dec – test) (16/1<)

3.00 Ling – Cloudy Beach

Tom George Chasers (any odds)

12.50 Ling – Get Rhythm

Trainer/Jockey Combo Live Test

12.50 South- Cracking Find (12/1<)

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As a ‘bonus’, hopefully, with any luck..(probably cursed now…) some Members’ Content…

From the ‘tipping’ / notes section… (this is where I look through all my stats qualifiers, which are based on trainers, and see if I really like anything at the prices etc…) 

 

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (28/151, +117) (1 point win bets) (+£1170 to £10 bets since Sept 1st)

NOTES

1.50 South – Skipthecuddles – 1 point win – 9/1 (gen) UP 8/1

2.20 South – Sir Egbert – 1 point win – 7/1 (gen) UP 4/1

Hmm…well no total shocks there…Skipthecuddles didn’t budge in price really which had be concerned and after 2 flights it was clear he wasn’t winning… you don’t hold up a horse last around Southwell, and race them 5 wide, if you wish to get competitive! 🙂 That’s the handicapping game and in the trackers he goes. Now, if I were the trainer asked to explain the ride I would say ‘we have ridden him more aggressively the last twice and he has cut out very quickly, he has his quirks/problems, and we were keen to get him finishing off his race…we hoped he’d be good enough to get involved and would have more left at the finish’ – you couldn’t say much to that as a steward! But he wasn’t given much of a chance…i’ll have to watch it again but I don’t think he had much in the tank come the end, the race had gone by the time he turned in… it could be they have a plan…it could be this is as good as he is at the moment…his last three runs have been poor and he now has questions… one to note… Sir Egbert blew a gasket and was keen again the bugger. I don’t mind backing 4/1 shots at 7s, a small positive. Lacey has a few youngsters on his hands that as yet haven’t learnt how to race properly…they will be well handicapped when they do!! 🙂 

 

Skipthecuddles… well at 9/1 he is worth a play here. He has a few questions/niggles that I think are built into his price. He has that ‘magic formula’ albeit not as exciting as some.. he is a stats qualifier / lightly raced / unexposed in this sphere (3rd handicap hurdle run) / he drops in class (<10k C3, it is a weaker C3 to LTO) / second run after a break / change in going … He was pitched into the Neptune in March and then sent over to Punchestown. I think that is some indication of what they think of him and he really should be going close here. He out-ran his 66/1 odds in the former. The niggles? Well that PU LTO is a concern…there is a chance he needed the run (the market/his SP may not support that theory though) and that he hated heavy…or the two combined found him out. Many a trainer in heavy ground will instruct jockeys to ease off a horse once all placed chance is gone, esp on their first run of the season. There really is no point in bottoming out a horse in such a way. He has weakened markedly on his last two starts so that is a concern, there could be something up with him. The ground is the other unknown.. it is impossible to say at the moment what his preferred conditions are as performances in non handicaps are only useful up to a point as class can get you a long way in those, even if you hate the going. Again, it comes down to price. 9s allows me to roll the dice and be wrong. I would like to see some market support but then again this trainer has winners at all prices inc plenty of drifters. It is a fine balance, the pros versus the cons, but his profile and what they have done with him to date (as an indication of what they think of his potential) has made him worth a stab at 9s. If I was sure he would run his race that is a few points too big to my eyes.

Sir Egbert… I want to get in the habit of using all the stats content on these members’ pages as potential ‘tipping fodder’ and this Tom Lacey angle is doing well at the moment… history is being made here I think…outside of the Albert Bartlett at the Festival (50/1 + 12/1 winners tipped on here in last 4 years…you do remember those, Very Wood the biggest priced horse I’ve landed in my blogging life to date…need a 66/1 shot next!) I think this will be the first even non-handicap/maiden/novice hurdle I have tipped in…so, we all know what happens now. But I think this looks a 2 or 3 horse race and at 7s i’ll play. He ticks the angle below and Tom Lacey is in fine form… 3/11,6p last 14 days, 6/26,13p last 30 days. I wanted a bit more than that though so I had a look at his track stats…in non-handicaps at Southwell in the last five years (hurdles+NHF) he is 6/23,8p, +44 SP!.. Dunne has ridden one of those to victory here from five rides. All of that was enough to lure me in. There is a chance he comes on for his last run where he did do plenty- he does seem a bit headstrong and will need to settle better. The first half mile could be crucial here. If he does then he will go very close. The ground is an unknown… soft is clearly no issue but Good is a question… he may relish it he may hate it. Again, the price allows the play in my view. On what these horses have done on the track to date he has the best GG speed figure by far and is up there on Inform. So, another positive.

Of the others in the race.,. well I am happy to take on Skelton’s who seems short enough given that profile/what he did the last day. He didn’t find much for pressure and they reach for the TT here. He would have been fit although lost to a 2/9 shot so wasn’t expected to win. Still, it was a 3 runner race and he has questions. Tom George is 3/6,5p here in maiden hurdles in the last 730 days… and he has won this race twice, so he has to be a main danger. But this one has a ground unknown, a fitness question, and it is his first hurdle run. All of that makes 3s seems fair rather than overly generous. The rest in here look like they may be out to get a handicap mark/build up experience, and there are no other trainer stats for this race type here that caught my eye.

Plenty to like about his chance in the context of price. Let’s hope he settles early and is thereabouts jumping the last. He ran the last day as if they want to get a win with him, rather than playing about to get a handicap mark. It may be we need to wait for his handicap debut but he’ll be winning for us at some point soon! 🙂

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And, you can have one of today’s videos that I record every now and then, I should do more…

 

Video

7 Minute Snapshot (seriously, it is only 7 minutes!!).. I’ve taken a flick through the Lingfield card using the trainer pointers in HRB… these have served me well as starting points for the two most recent ‘through the card’ notes.. they are simply that… there is no analysis here… 7 minutes that you can watch with a notepad that highlights some horses you may wish to take a closer look at, simply based on the trainer stats. You may also want to take note of the ‘today’s jockey’ stats to the right hand side that I didn’t really focus on…

 

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That’s the lot for today, oh and of course you can always try my unique club for 7 whole weeks for just £7, and see if it is for you.

Take a look HERE>>> 

Josh

About This Author

<p>Hi, I’m Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch… and if you could use the ‘share buttons’ above that would also be appreciated :)</p>

5 Comments

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  • GOLF BETS JOBURGH OPEN
    This tournament over the last 11 seasons as been won 8 times by a South African

    Darren Fichardt 1 point ew 1/5 7 25/1 CO BFSB PP SB
    Home favorite Darren is the defending champion and at 25/1 is worth a bet

    Thomas Aiken 1 point ew 1/5 7 50/1 BFSB PP 1/5 6 50/1 WH there is some 66/1 about with different terms
    South African Thomas as won on the European Tour and i feel that he is value at 50/1 1/5 7

    colin leafe 2 weeks ago Reply


    • Fichardt does have the course form here. Aiken is hot or cold and so I would sooner back him later in the tournament when he is in touch. Haydn Porteous can also go well circa 25/1 here.

      martin colwell 2 weeks ago Reply


      • Agree about Aiken being hot or cold,but this is not the most competitive tournament many players are already on their Christmas break and at 50/1 1/5 7 it is for me worth the risk that he will be hot,famous last words!!

        colin leafe 2 weeks ago Reply


  • Football – Anderlecht, although not a good team, look worth a dart at 3/1+ away to Celtic. Atletico Madrid are not the team they were and 6/5 Chelsea at home seems ok. Both Manchester clubs will rest players ahead of the derby but as United are at home they should beat CSKA comfortably. 1/2 is skinny though.

    As Man City are away to Shakhtar tomorrow I am guessing they will send a weakened team on that journey ahead of the weekend. Anyone who has been to the Ukraine will know it is a far way and not the easiest country to get around. So Shakhtar home seems a solid bet before others cotton on to the travel etc issues.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 2 weeks ago Reply


    • Anderlecht have to win by 3 clear goals to pass Celtic for a europa league spot
      So I think the first goal will be vital
      if Celtic get it the desire may go out of the Belgiums play and the Scots could then go on and win by a big score
      if the Belguims score first Then Celtic may well decide to play it tight and settle for a low score loss
      so a very volatile game in my eyes and anything is possible.

      Shakhtar v Man city is a match both managers would shake hands now and say draw if they could.
      Man city have already won the group and Shaktar will be a certain 2nd with a point.

      This is a meaningless game for City and one that Shakhtar can’t afford to lose
      if this was a game involving two Italian teams from 20 years ago
      it would be a certain draw
      Although you wouldn’t expect City under Pep to Stoll through a match
      the 12/5 a draw looks a value price with a result that will suit both teams
      in fact watch the first 20 minutes of the match
      if both teams are strolling about without much intent back 0-0

      PETER 2 weeks ago Reply


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