Members Daily Post: 29/11/17 (complete)

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Wetherby 

2.30 –

Mr Snoozy (all hncps + hncp hurdle) H1 I3 6/1 UP

Away For Slates (m1) H3 7/2  2nd 

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Note… there is no stats profile for Hereford due to a lack of sufficient data. After this season maybe there will be enough to use.

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BONUS…

Time will tell if this proves to be a bonus or not, but I have cast my eye over the water given it is quiet over here, and the 2.55 Punchestown…  the following horse WILL be included in the running ‘notes’ total above… it is a bit shy of 3 miles and I usually get what I deserve when heading to Irish races with no stats/trends to help. But I couldn’t resist…

2.55 Punch – Flemenstorm – 1 point win – 6/1 – Fell 10/1

Ah, well when you are on a bit of a losing streak as I am with the notes sometimes it all goes wrong… maybe another unsighted one like Thomas Brown as he jumped well up until that point. He tanked through this and was thereabouts a few out with the jockey’s hands full – not sure if he was doing too much but that is how he races, and connections deserved what they got, no reason he couldn’t have raced further forward, out of trouble, with a clear sight. Right to take on the fav who only just lost, having made a couple of crunching errors which paid in the end- and was given too much to do.  Hard to say how close the selection would have gone but he would have placed at worst and my hunch is he would have been involved in the finish. 

I will be mildly surprised/fall of my seat in shock, if this one isn’t in the top 4 here…all being well with the horse…if he runs his race, jumps fine, gets luck etc – I am struggling to see how he doesn’t place here…so the EW option is there if you prefer, but I will stick to a win only bet. I don’t want two points on this race, and I won’t ever go 1/2 EW on a horse if I can help it. I feel a bit dirty advising EW on a 6/1 shot, but that’s just me.

The horse… well i have had a good look through this race and he does look the solid option. While he is 9 this is only his seventh handicap chase, 2/6,3p so far. He looks experienced enough but there could be more to come. I can’t think this mark will be the reason for defeat. He relishes heavy and importantly has winning course form. The trainer and jockey have decent stats here and you cannot say that about many others in this. He is a decent jumper, touch wood, and can travel up on the pace…there doesn’t look much on here…it could be criminal if they hold this one up here and they deserve everything they get if they do. While he won’t lead, he should sit in 2nd-5th comfortably, and be in the right spot… they have done that before, they have held him up before. The horse has won after a break so I am not concerned on that front- they can get him fit at home. There is a slight niggle that he may have had issues but I find it of interest that they bring him back to a track he has won at. This is his level and I’d be disappointed if didn’t give me a run for my money. If he drifts markedly that may indicate there has been a training setback, but given that lack of depth in this race I think 6s is ok. While it is a big field, there is so much dross in this to my eye. The horse is clear top rated in HRB which boosts the confidence also. On what these have all done on the track to date, esp over  fences, he is the best in this and best suited to conditions. This is a unique course and track form is a positive I think.

The dangers…well this does feel like a two horse race with the 3/1 fav…he may relish this slight step up, build on his last run, and have too much in hand. But he is going a different way round today and was held up out the back the last day. No doubt BG will now ride him right up there and it will never be in doubt, but I hope they hold him up- as that will make it tougher. I have watched his last race and he did ‘run on’ but past tired horses to my eye. He looked a bit tricky (maybe inexperience) and he just looks too short/worth taking on. That may prove to be foolish but I think it is between these two and mine was double the price.

Everything else in this has major questions to my eye and while something else may win, I wasn’t anywhere near to backing them. This is full of seemingly ‘out of form’ chasers, many of whom have either stamina to prove, or a liking for heavy, or both.

Do with that as you please, but I have played so thought I would share.