Members Daily Post: 28/11/17 (complete)

Lingfield ‘through the card’ notes, Section 1, test zone, + a few updates…

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

*

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

 

Sedgefield

2.20 – Robbing The Prey (nov hncp) 14 I3 G3 9/4  WON 9/4> 15/8 

 

Lingfield

3.00 – Crystal Lad (m1) H3 I1  9/1  S5 (IF 11.00+ BFSP)

 

 

*

KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1/’Strategy 1′. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 26th Nov)

All Members’ Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info – all  HERE>>> (please flick through,esp if new) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

*

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (27/144, +116.5) (1 point win bets)

Nothing again today.

 

Lingfield Notes

Some thoughts for Kevin, time will tell if they are insightful… I have used the HRB 730 days trainer stats as a guide, for the race type at track…

1.00 – Moore and Gifford only two trainers that have won a NHF here in the period… Pauling has a shorty, and Moore’s is short, maybe one wins…but the Gifford (#2) WON 6/1  horse maybe worth a small nibble at 5s..plenty of stamina in the blood though, Denman is in his family tree, this may be sharp enough! couldn’t back either of top two with confidence, at the prices… but one probably wins, market often a guide in these, i’d prefer the fav over Moores.

1.30 – Well, Mullins, Mulholland only two win non-hncp hurdle wins at track in 730 days… and Evan Williams 0/4,3p… those three have 4 horses between them from 20/1-66/1 … market suggests Skelton or Kim Bailey’s wins… but maybe a £1 coin on each of those four, you never know! (# 5,9,12,14) all UP  i’d always take on an odds on poke, and the market would point you to First Flow WON 13/2 as the viable alternative. Trainer in decent form, horse is fit, just how he jumps!

2.00 – My focus would be on Because She Said So 2nd (who could make all, 5/2 may be ok) .. Gowell UP at 10s could be the EW bet in the race…and if Venetia’s is too short for you, maybe Touch Screen UP follows up, 9/2 looks fair. I can’t back Hawkes on his first chase start, after 260 days off, at that price. But, market indicates he could go ok. Not for me at 9/2.

2.30 – Naranja does WON 6/4> 4/5   look solid… famous last words but if I was at the track maybe the one fav i’d be tempted to win a round of beers on… They should try and make all, has experience, should come on for the last run and may appreciate softer going. Very Solid. The Paul Henderson horse.. well in the last 5 years he is 0/44,4p with non handicappers returning 60+ days off..at 7/2 his can beat me given that stat. No thanks. Maybe pick an outside for some fun RFCs with the fav or something!

3.00- covered in free post as a ‘tipping’ race of choice… Two Smoking Barrels 2nd  / Notbuttaboy UP / Saint John Henry UP… hopeful one wins..and they are listed in order of preference there I think,albeit have been consistent with staking.  Thought the Moore horse in section 1 was short enough this morning at a single figure price, had too many questions for me personally but we know how this goes! 🙂

3.30 – Molly Carew 2nd  would be the one for me…Skelton’s looks short given has never run on soft/heavy… this one will be fit, likes the track, and just looks solid. Noel rides, i’d have a good go at 4s if I was at the track I think.

 

If you pushed me to highlight my main fancies..well all three in the 3.00 + Naranja and Molly Carew. Gulp.

Do with that as you please, a guide/starting point!! 🙂

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

TTP All-Weather

1.10 South – Llewellyn (m1 + m1) 30 I3 16/1  3rd 20/1 

 

Donald McCain (14/1< guide)

1.50 Sedge – Handy Hollow (micro 3) UP

2.20 Sedge- Derrintoher Yank (m1 + m2) UP

 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Weekly Results Update:Advised Strategies: Updated HERE>>> (and in Key above)

Summary

Weekly TOTAL (advised strategies) (all Jumps now): 

  • Backing all strategy quals every time they hit a strategy: 6/46,14p, -23.45 
  • Backing all strategy quals just once, regardless of how many strategies they hit: 4/32,11p, -18
  • S1 (0/5,1p, -5) S2 (0/13,1p, -13) S3 (1/8,2p, -2.5) S3A (2/7,4p, +1.25) S4 (3/10,6p, +1.3) S5 (0/3,0p, -3)

 

NOTES: 0/5,0p, -5

*

The Week That Was: Article #4

  • Three Handicap Chasers to keep an eye on
  • What went well last week (inc T Lacey update) and what didn’t
  • A look at Donald McCain, three ‘micros’ of interest

YOU CAN READ IT HERE>>>

*

Members’ Research Repository: Post Updated HERE>>> 

(added David’s last two updates in case you missed them, all 4 weekly articles to date and i’ve pulled out the Paddy B + D McCain micros into separate documents) 

*

 

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on pinterest
Pinterest
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on telegram
Telegram

Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

29 Responses

  1. Hi Josh I have decided not to continue with your racing blog it is not personal I think you do a great job at this moment I have to sort out a big issue in my family life

    1. Hi Kenneth,sorry to hear that… hope everything works out ok.

      I wouldn’t mind if it was personal. What I do here isn’t for everyone, more a small minority really! 🙂 it is what it is, a long game.
      Best
      Josh

  2. Nice to tip up Muthabir to win for the 2nd time on this site (first time was in Huntingdon last year)

    Christmas In Usa Sedgefield Tuesday 13:50 1pt e/w-I looked at this race slightly closer than normal given anyone who had Muthabir today on Bet365 will have a freebet. It looks like a pretty bad race and the favourite is an 11 year old returning off a 450 day break (trainer can ready them and the Hughes booking likely means they mean business however I will let them beat me). The selection looked interesting given he ran OK on his re-appearance run. The 4th and 9th have come out and won since even if it was on a different ground to give the race some form boost. He has been dropped 3lb for his last run and the jockey takes off a further 5lbs. Both trainer (last 3 runners finished 124) and jockey (his 4 rides in November have finished 2×41) are in good form.

    1. Interesting selection in a dire race Nick. No weight which should help. Hard race to try and pick a winner. Good luck.

      1. Yeah well not sure I would have delved in if I didn’t have the risk free bet which is why I wanted to make that point clear but once I did I thought he would be there or thereabouts all things considered. Market seems to be suggesting the McCain runner making his handicap debut is a good thing so we shall see.

        1. Looked at McCains, as I should expand my ‘notes’ horizon’s to all content.. (with those eyes I may have put up the Lacey winner on Sunday given profile, things to improve on there…)… but he is 0/13,0p in the last 5 years with handicap debutants here, which put me off, at his price…never bigger than 11/2, I wanted bigger. No distance move either…but he is in the could be anything camp and hits that angle. And this is a shocker of a race, maybe they will make plenty of use of him here, had been getting outpaced in novice races. We shall see.

        2. Well the McCain horse has 11’12” and so it has that to overcome. As always it is all about value and so the question is at what price would you back a horse at. A bad race and so we shall see?

          1. ‘Most’ handicaps are won by those at the top of the weights Martin?? 11-12 is no bad thing… mainly depends on the size of the horse and his ability to carry the actual weight on his back…if he is small framed etc that is the problem… clearly that is a generalisation… but even on heavy ground, in chases over all sorts of trips, it is still those near top of weights that do best, generally, naturally they have the highest ratings in said race and as such are the best horses in the race on known ability. I wouldn’t have a ’11-12′ is bad mindset, you’ll miss plenty of nice priced winners! Always exceptions of course. 4s doesn’t seem overly generous but you never know.

            Did just check the stats… all NH handicaps since start of 2014, on soft through to Heavy, clear top weights (exc jockey claims) have the highest win and place % of any position in racecard, 15.74% and 34.47% win/place… essentially it tapers down from there… AE figures are similar all the way down.. point being, don’t be put off my top weights as a blanket, or those high up the weights… clear or joint bottom are 10% win and 25% win/place.

            Josh

          2. But what is more relevant is whether top weights win at Sedgefield rather than at all courses. I do not know the answer but I do not like the stat across all courses, too general. I am not being critical just making a point.

          3. … it is more a general point for me as to not be put off by a big weight… there are so many variables that can affect such a weight on a horse… track may be irrelevant for the most part? could be more about pace… say if they crawl around versus a good gallop for the whole trip. You couldn’t have a blanket ‘X weights don’t do well at X course, as would have to be a horse by horse, race by race basis in my view…I don’t like the idea of any punter having the view, even subconsciously, that its ‘hard’ for top weights as a matter of course… when the opposite is arguably true, it could well be the first place you look if that way inclined.
            There is that general view about ‘tight’ tracks, where you are on the turn most of the time.. I think Nick Mordin may have touched on that back in the day… the idea that because you are turning plenty you can never fully reach full speed – only a certain pace you can go around bends..and as such that favours bigger weights…due to that slower pace.

            It is a complex area…but main point, as with most things, is that generalities are dangerous. I know that wasn’t your point, but there are many punters (i used to be one) that would cast broad aspersions without much evidence to back it up.
            Josh

      2. I am not one to be overly critical of jockeys and you have to take your lumps with 5lb claimers but given how well he was traveling and the fact that he seemed to pick up I think the jockey cost us a place there. At least we beat the market by some way and money back with 365.

  3. Hi Josh,

    heading to Lingfield tomorrow/today ( depending on when you read this, any insightful thoughts ?

    all the best

    Kevin

    1. Hi Kevin,
      I’ll have a good look in the morning and let you know. That 3m handicap chase looks decent enough… M Scudamore’s in that caught the eye on seasonal return LTO. If I was track side I’d definitely have a go at 8s or so…will work out whether to tip her/another in the morning. If anything else jumps out i’ll let you know. But I’ll post up a comment either way in the comments on within the post by 10 am latest. Josh

      P.s I always have thoughts… making them insightful is the challenge haha.

    2. Dont park in the car park opposite on the grass. Your car will sink in the mud and you will have to pay £50 for the tractors to pull you out. Best tip of the day.

    3. I too like Molly Carew in the 3.30. The ground at Lingfield will be deep and you do not want to be carrying weight today. Gary Moore is out of form and so swerve his horses until he has a winner of a competitive race. The carvery is good in the restaurant and you can go up again. Have a good day.

  4. 15.00 Lingfield TWO SMOKIN BARRELS
    The horse I felt needed his last run and travelled well into the race before weakening after the last. In his chase runs to date:
    Soft/Heavy: 114, LH track: 4 wins from 6 runs and Liam Treadwell: 11
    2m4f to 3m1f: 16111 (Class 3 and below: 1111)

    The other horse I feel may run well is on the AW

    12.10 Southwell SWIFT CEDAR
    The race he was 3rd in at leicester has worked out well and the race he won here in March has had several subsequent winners.
    Southwell when racing at 1m3f to 1m4f: 11341

    1. Good stuff David,
      Hope you’re right about Two Smokin B…does look an ideal race for her and agree about the run LTO…the one to beat I think, wouldn’t mind one of my other two beating her given bigger odds but i’t bite your hand off now for her to be the winner, can’t be greedy in this game. GL
      Josh

  5. Hi Josh/Others,
    I’m headed to my local Towcester on Thurs and would love if anyone had a spare few mins to have a flick through the card nearer the time, would be be much appreciated.

    1. Hi Jonno, probably a good excuse to record a video provided there is something to get stuck into! A proper horses for courses track I think, and if you can find a front runner/prominent racer with stamina to burn, you can’t go too far wrong…from memory.
      Josh

    2. Thisisjonnoo
      Royalraise ran on Monday, placed 7th, the race won by Muthabir, 3.05 Kempton.
      ‘Raced wide, led, not fluent 2nd and soon headed, led again 7th to 9th, on terms 3 out, weakened quickly under pressure on long run to 2 out (op 20/1)’
      Towcester 1.40 Thursday was earmarked before that race.
      5lb less and 4 furlong shorter.

  6. Llewelyn 1.10 Southwell A.W test following this test with interest / was on the right mark / suggest the A.W especially at Southwell is similar to Greyhound racing grading up a pound or to down a pound or 4 to get to the right mark / yes I did back him BOG e.w double with win lose or draw who now is approaching a Handy mark although the horse like a lot of Appleby’s of late is or are inconsistent . waiting for Red Touch @ Southwell soon . Good Luck Ger

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.