Free Daily Post: 17/11/17 (complete/tips)

Tips x3, write up, micro

TIPS

(2017 Total: 17/155, +102.5 points) 

 

12.40 Chelt 

What Happens Now – 2 point win – 13/2 (bet365) 6/1 (gen) UP

Indian Castle – 1/2 point win – 7/1 (gen) UP

Regal Flow – 1/2 point win – 20/1 (gen) Up

 

Ah damn. Well it was going to go one of two ways given that confidence! Got that wrong with the 2 pointer… no excuses… jockey had him in the right position. Maybe that last race was his Gold Cup and that was one race too many.  I know in my own head what i would have done were that winner 11/1 this morning, and not 6s. That was short for me given form when last seen/the break. 11s a different story.  Maybe you had a last minute dart at that price, 15.00 BFSP. Back to +99.5 points I go. Hovering around 100. 

 

 

What Happens Now…well, what happens next is that come the end of this race i’ll have added +11 points to the pot. 🙂 He may have to work a bit harder here, he may not do it as easily (maybe only win by 4-5l this time!), but in truth I haven’t been so bullish about a horse giving me a run for my money for a little while. Maybe this is misplaced confidence and I will get what I deserve. 2 points win is my maximum stake on the nose these days as I try and be disciplined, albeit I have rarely advised more on a horse. But, IF he runs as he did the last day, travelling near the front end/tracking the pace, jumping, galloping, swinging into the home straight, I can’t see what beats him in this line up. They say it is a stronger race. Well, on the ‘figures’ maybe but when you weigh up the oppo I don’t think there is that much difference. I don’t do ‘weight/ratings’ really with 3m+ handicap chases. It has never been a fundamental part of my analysis. I don’t care for the 8lb rise in the context of his own chance (may bring others closer but I will get onto that)… in the context that to my eyes he still looks unexposed enough over fences- or in any case it is impossible to say he has hit the ceiling of his ability. Maybe after this race, when he comes a gallant 3rd with two better treated horses running past, i’ll then say ok, the rise took it’s toll, he may need to come down the weights etc. But, pre race, as I write, there is no way you can assume that. Show me the evidence. There isn’t any. On we go. He actually carries 2lb less weight on his back compared to the last race which is no bad thing. Unless he falls or is brought down I just don’t see why he won’t repeat that run LTO. I’m not sure 8lb more on his back would have stopped him that day. There is a bit more cut here but he has performed well in softer conditions and I won’t use that as an excuse. 6s seemed more than fair to me. Just on the limit. I have psychological issues in races like this going under that price. His jockey may have been in demand again but why would he have jumped off him. A vote of confidence that he rides again. I’m going to be surprised, all being well, if he doesn’t go very close here. Hence the 2 points. He should be favourite for this. 9/2, 4/1.

Indian Castle – I wanted something on and he did chase What Happens Now home the last day. He was well stuffed though and at the head of a more bunched finish. There is a chance he comes on for the run, or bounces. But he will like the slight cut in the ground and I did note how he had 9lb less actual weight on his back. Over 25f around here that is what may make the difference, and get him closer to the horse above. If he runs the same race of course, but there is no guarantee as to that with him. But 7s seemed fair and if I have got the one above wrong, in theory he shouldn’t be far away.

Regal Flow – 20s does seem a bit big but I would like to see some support. I am a bit ‘meh’ as to his chances in this but I fancied him to run well LTO and the price has just lured me in. He may well come on a bundle for the run and that is what could put him closer to those two above. He hit a fence hard early on the last day as well which knocked him back a bit. He usually races up there and if he can hold position will give me a run for my money. All conditions are fine and he likes it around here. He should be out-running those odds.

 

PACE – well What Happens Now will run the same race again…he should race prominently. The Bailey and Honeyball horses may take it up but he will track those and breeze past as they come down the hill for the final time :). There will be no excuse on that front. Regal Flow should be in the front 3rd and Indian Castle mid division I imagine. A good spread, and no real excuses. None are hold up horses.

Of the others…

Dueling Banjos… well he could win. I suspect if he had a different jockey on he would be 8s+ here, and that would be a more tempting price. I have put my neck on the line with him- I don’t think he will stay. Or in any case I have yet to see any evidence that he will for a test like this- as ever, all in the context of his price. My thoughts on his stamina make 11/2 short enough and not a price whereby I can take a chance. His chase form has generally been in smaller fields and in softer ground. He ran well for a long way the last day and maybe this has been the target. The track will be a new experience. Again, that isn’t a negative generally around here  (most races over the next three days will be won by horses that have never raced here before) (the Festival may be an exception)but it is in the context that he is 11/2. I can live with him beating me here. But I think something with more guts and stamina may put him in his place up this hill. I could be wrong. At 11/2 i’ll cope just fine if I am. I won’t be reeling in shock.

What A Moment- WON 6/1> 11/1 won this race last year arriving fit and in form… he has form/well-being/fitness questions. Again I won’t be shocked if he wins this but at 6s, given those questions, I was happy to leave him. Another that were he 8s, 10s +, then I would have a headache as to what to do. Pipe can ready them, he is in form, and this has been a target no doubt. If you like his price there isn’t much for me to say to put you off! He can be a bit tricky from memory also and this race does look stronger than the one he won last year. But, he should go well. No forlorn hope.

I didn’t really want to be with anything else and will be mildly surprised if one of those 5 doesn’t win this, but I am wrong a lot of the time, and I may be again. I will mention Solstice Son who i am not sure will be good enough but he can go well fresh (yet to win after a break over fences though), Honeyball can ready them, and he races prominently. He is on a career high mark over fences so does have that to prove. But so does my main fancy and you get a big price to find out. He is in effect 15lb above his last chase win, and he has 14lb more actual weight on his back when winning a C3 novice handicap chase here in April 16. That may not be enough to stop him but having banged the ‘weight/ratings’ play little role in my head…there is something psychological when they are 10+ above last winning marks etc. And when they have fitness questions and have already run from a few times around similar marks and not won. He has it to prove anyway, but this is only his 9th handicap chase so you never know. It is impossible to say he can’t win from this mark over fences. There were enough niggles/doubts for me but I can see why some may want a nibble. It would be a bit annoying if he wins but in truth it wasn’t one where I was deliberating for a long time. This is the 5th time in his career now that he has returned after breaks of 150+ days and suggests he is a horse who does have issues keeping sound. Maybe I’ve  just blinded myself as to the chances of What Happens Now! We shall see.

And that’s the lot. If something beats me that I haven’t mentioned then so be it, I wasn’t close to finding them today! This Happy Chappy is expecting a big run from What Happens Now. (i really am setting myself up for a fall)

GL with any bets

Josh

 

*

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

V Williams (16/1<)

1.50 Chelt – Bright New Dawn

Trainer/jockey Combo – Live Test

1.50 Newc – Cracking Find

2.50 Newc – No Planning

 

*

That’s the lot for today.

Josh

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on pinterest
Pinterest
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on telegram
Telegram

Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

27 Responses

  1. John Best has 3 handicappers tomorrow,had a winner this evening in a 2yo so can assume the yard form is fine

    7.45 Luxford 7/1 bv
    8.15 Mallarkey 12/1 bET365
    9.15 Mossgo 14/1 Coral

    Hopefully one might oblige

  2. Solstice Son Cheltenham Friday 12:40 0.75pt e/w and Regal Flow Cheltenham Friday 12:40 0.75pt e/w-This looks competitive however I like a couple at a big price and with Sky paying 5 places this race needs attacking. Regal Flow ran a solid 3rd here at the last meeting and gets a nice 8lb swing with the winner. That was his first run of the season and he generally needs it. His record on his 2nd run in the last 4 seasons reads a more pleasing 2119 so I fully expect him to come on for the run. I expect him to be up there with the pace. Has a 1st and a 3rd from 3 handicap runs at Cheltenham so clearly likes it here (also 2/5, 3p in very undulating tracks and 3/8, 6p left handed over handicap chases). I also like the look of Solstice Son. Has a good record fresh and is 1/1 at the track and 3/3 over the distance. Another one suited by very undulating tracks (3/4 over handicap chases) and going left handed (3/8, 6p). Has been a different animal since the blinkers were put on and I think he is still progressing. Should lead or be up with the pace. Winner of his last race franked the form with a solid 3rd at the Summer Plate off 5 lbs higher. Biddick is an eye-catching booking given I suspect he would have had a choice of a few here.
    Man Look(4 Places at 1/4) Cheltenham Friday 13:15 0.75pt e/w-Man Look looks over priced here. He beat 2 previous winners pretty comfortably LTO (runner up was backed like defeat looked impossible that day and was 5lbs well in). I think there is a reasonable chance he gets an easy lead here and given we know he stays further hopefully he leads them all a merry dance here. Just about everything McCain is sending out at the moment seems to be running well and he looks to be another who looks to out-run his odds.

    1. GL Nick… with you on Man Look, well worth a small EW tickle.. am sure he looks likely to get an easy lead and I am struggling to work out his price. Clearly a few open to more improvement maybe but that does seem big.

  3. My lucky15 for tomorrow.
    Chelt 12.40 Regal Flow, Ran behind What Happens Now last time Hope he will come on for the run,better value at the prices.
    Chelt 3.00 Urgent De Gregaine, Won this last year, up in the weights, like a C/D winner in this type of race.
    New 3.25 Sweet As Candy, Bit of a punt here, Jockey only ride at the meeting and not a regular for this trainer.
    Ling 3.10 Napping, Not without promise on only visit to C/D, Lightly raced and seems to be getting backed 11/1 at Bet365 biggest elsewhere is 8/1 with Betvictor.

    Good Luck everyone.

    1. Good luck Greg, I won’t mind at all if Regal Flow does the business, albeit for an increased return personally, I hope What Happens Now follows up again.
      Should be a fun day ahead,
      Josh

  4. two races today appeal

    2.15 Newcastle they go 16/1 and bigger the 4th fav and above
    and the winner should come from the first three in the market.
    Katy royal has hurdle form in the book but it is very moderate and the two
    bumper horses should be to good for her
    Tokermore won two bumpers and ran in a listed race at Cheltenham
    so not to be underestimated but
    Although Mary Eleanor failed to win any of her 4 bumpers
    she ran some great races.

    The eye catching thing about her is her breeding
    her sire is Midnight Legend who is a top nh sire
    and her dam is the great rare mare Lady Rebecca
    Tom Lacey her trainer reported she is a great trier
    and the 2m5f trip is sure to suit giving her parents
    Richard Johnston takes the ride and I think only a fall will keep her out
    the first three( I think she will win).

    5.45 at Chelmsford is a race I like although the 4th fav is only 8/1 with the
    rags really big prices
    and the first three in the market all have recent placed form
    but I am pretty keen on Fakhoor as I think he looks
    a shoo in for a place
    and has a decent chance to win

    What really gives me confidence is the fact that the 3rd and 4th
    behind him at Kempton have both won since.

    Ladbrokes go 2/1 Mary Eleanor and 7/4 Fakhoor
    and I am going for an e/w double
    a 1 point e/w double pays 7.25/1 for the win part of the bet
    and .89/1 for two places

    So if both manage to win you make 8.14 points profit
    both placed means you virtually break even (0.11 loss).

    and although it is a e/w double if Mary Eleanor wins it gives you plenty of leverage
    to lay Fakhoor in the win market to assure a profit
    e/g if Mary Wins you have 3 points going on to Fakhoor at 7/4(7.25/1 double as mentioned
    so you can either let the bet run or for the more conservative
    lay Fakhoor in the betfair win market for 2 points at 2/1.
    so then you have this scenario

    if fakhoor wins the second race you win 4.14 points(7.25for the win double 0.89 for the place double – 4 points on the lay to win)

    if Fakoor is placed you win 1.89 points(you lose .011 points to the bookies but win 2 points from your win lay

    if fakhoor is unplaced you break even( lose the 2 point e/w double but land the 2 points win lay)

      1. So far so good.
        but again it shows taking best combined odds
        are far superior than sp in these type of races
        Ladbrokes were going 2/1 ELEANOR and 5/2 FUKHOOR
        Eleanor returned 13/8
        what was crazy about this race is in the last 30 seconds before
        the off both the 2nd and 3rd favourites shorten up in price
        but the favourite stayed the same
        as it was about a 95% chance that the winner would come from the first three in the betting

        This was robbery as the big firms saved themselves
        large sums by backing all three late to squeeze the prices

        if an outsider had won it would have covered their on course losses 100 times
        as there would be very little money in shop for the rags

  5. Good luck today Josh
    The form of the race over c/d on the 27th October is the key to
    your chances.
    if the form of that race is as strong as it looks then you have every chance.
    the only crab with the race is the winning time on good ground was 28.80 seconds slow
    which suggests it wasn’t run at an all out gallop

    Today I think they will go a little quicker so that will be the test
    if they can then there is no reason why they can’t frank the form.
    What happens now was beaten twice before Cheltenham when they went a real gallop.
    this could be a red herring and the horse is just suited to Cheltenham

    If they all can all handle a faster pace small forecasts and tricasts
    could pay big bucks.

    on the other hand off a different gallop they may all finish un placed
    but as a man who likes good recent form they certainly have that.

    1. yep maybe Peter, you could well be right… part of his appeal is I think he will be able to go his own pace again.. Solstice, after a break, in one of the better races he has contested won’t blast off..and if he does he will fold. And Dueling…well if they have a stamina niggle/he doesn’t take to the fences/track, well then he may not get away on the front end either. That time may suggest the ground wasn’t as good as forecast? He comes up very well on both sets of speed ratings I use…and his main dangers, bar a couple, are horses from the same race as LTO that he thumped.
      We will soon find out. It looks like he is just a better chaser than he was a few runs back, after that spell over hurdles. I don’t look at ‘form’ as such in that way, not in 3m+ chases, (a consideration but only that) I am more about the horse’s profile and suitability to conditions, race tactics etc. That form of last race may have no bearing at all and judging whether or not it may be ‘weak’ hasn’t come into consideration too much. It is no weaker than any other races the rest have been running in etc. Not from what I can see. Many ways to attack this game. Josh

      1. Josh a 100 point profit shows that you are fantastic in these type of races
        and when I put up negatives it is not to challenge your methods
        but to play devils advocate in a way.

        if I put up a selection or tip I want loads of people to come back
        and tell me its flawed as long as they have some logic to back it up

        after the race I can re read their comments and either
        dismiss them or incorporate then next time.

        My problem is I can be a big head who likes his own opinion but there is nothing like racing
        so bring you back to earth.

        In fact I am very grateful to your site for getting me grounded again.

        I think everyone who has visited your site has learned plenty
        and I know it has got me away from being a lazy punter who though he knows it all

        so if anyone thinks my e/w double is rubbish please feel free to slate it

        1. haha, no i do like the challenge, it does get me thinking. There is always room for improvement in anything you do, and you did raise some valid points that got me pondering. But I do have a set way with 3m+ handicap chases, which is quite different from ‘traditional’ analysis, and it has served me well.. but always room to improve, and often times I will miss something. Your post got me thinking but thought i’d explain the method to my madness.

          My over-confidence got what it deserved today.

          You have a focus on non handicaps and an approach which doesn’t suit me personally, but that is why your comments are always an intriguing read. There is no right or wrong way to approach this game and you have to get approach it in a way that excites you, motivates you, and keeps you coming back for more. For me that is the puzzle of handicaps, generally!
          And we all like being right! My driver is solving he puzzle, and being right. In knowledge I am wrong 8.5 times out of 10 roughly.

          Josh

  6. Hi Peter, Really appreciate your write ups and the analysis regarding the the eachway profile of a race which is an approach I had not considered before and is very useful in determining the shape of a race in terms of what horses are considered by the market to win….this has helped me determine what races to bet in and what to avoid…in general I avoid handicap hurdle races, especially in Ireland, and the lower grade races over the flat and most of the aw tracks, Wolverhampton being my least fav….I have applied this to some American races the way you look at a race is applicable so many thanks cheers John G

    1. Thanks John.
      one of the things that I found that has improved my strike rate
      is the need for experience.
      in the unexposed flat maidens and Novice chases Novice hurdles and bumpers national hunt wise.
      I look for horses who have had at least one run 2 preferablly(if they have only have had one race
      I look to see how the horses from their race that have run since
      that is why I am keen on FAKHOORS place chance today because
      the horses who finished directly behind have both won since giving substance to the form.

      Mary Eleanor hasn’t run over hurdles but has had 4 bumper runs
      and watching the replays she looks a horse who will put her head down and race

      The very worst horse for e/w bets are horses from big yards
      who have run 1 placed effort.
      they are as a rule over bet in their 2nd run.
      if the horses who finished in the first 5 places in its first race have come out again
      and been beaten out of sight then will be keen on an e/w alternative.

      I totally agree with your verdict on handicap hurdles
      they are almost impossible to make a long term profit in
      unless you are Jp McManus.

      low grade a/w racing is indeed a minefield as the horses are inconsistent
      and you are not sure in quite a lot of races if the trainers want them to run to their merits

      When they are maidens quite a few trainers run three times to lose for a low mark in handicaps
      and if they win a few they then run up a few losses to get down to a winning mark.
      but the bonus for us in some of the small maidens
      5 of the 8 runners could be none triers trying for a decent handicap mark.

      Mark Prescott is a great example of that if he has a 2 year old with a mile and a half pedigree
      you can 99% of the time put a line through his horse when running in 7f two year old maidens
      as he is looking for a low handicap mark to run them in 3 year old middle distance handicaps

      One area to note is fillies maiden as top trainers know that a well bred filly no matter how poor she is will be worth a lot more when she goes to the breeding paddock
      if she has won or been placed in a race no matter how poor the contest is

      The worst thing for a filly is not reaching the frame on any of her starts
      as she is not sort after for breeding

      if a filly runs in a Newmarket maiden and is beaten a bus ride and then suddenly turns up at Wolves
      they are trying to get placed form in the book
      so they can ramble on about her pedigree and state she was a multiple placed
      filly.

      the northern fillies are usually pretty average
      so when the top southern yards send their moderate young horses there
      you can bet your life they are trying

      but the form of these contests are very dubious, so if a filly from Stoutes yard goes to Wolves and runs a place
      I would be very much against it if it comes and runs at Chelmsford that is a grade higher

      if this type of filly runs in an open maiden against colts and gelding would be again looking to
      take it on

      if you are interested in any e/w horse please let me know
      and I would be more than happy to give my opinion on the strengths and weaknesses
      of their chances.
      Either through this site or peterroywalker@outlook.com

      1. Hi Peter,

        Thanks for the info and comments did Mary Elanour in a win single and included this in an e/w acca which included Jassas, Triopas and Part Exchange….the latter was a no brainer to place but I was the one without the brain!…but the races I chose “qualified” on your acca system and I usually back another horse as a win single as insurance against my bet so this does seem to work and no damage done….great little system if you like doing multiples at relatively short prices….as backing singles at short prices not good value overall as a high strike rate is needed, which is above my pay grade to make it profitable…gd way to go….cheers and all the best…. John G

  7. Zalshah 11.50 Lingfield…. has yet to win, but Hannon knows how to do the biz.
    He has Holly Doyle on Straight Ash….but Zalshah is 36% placed, so at 16/1 looks a goer for place backers.

    Tony Mc.

  8. What a game horse Chu Chu Percy is Ian….mopped up the losses….good shout.
    I think Flemirina would have won bar for that one bad jump which pushed him back behind other horses. Still..Well Done Ian.

    Tony Mc.

  9. Thanks Tony; made up for the complete horlix of the 12.40 at Cheltenham (sorry)

    Yes agree about Chu Chu and Flemerina, also pleased with runs of two P2P horses I mentioned who were 2bnd at 25/1 and 4th at 10/1 but obviously now both have “blown their cover” a bit and wont be those prices nto – still nice to know the logic of 3 mile P2P form is working, will pay big dividends over the winter I’m 100% sure!

    It will not be 100% popular; but I always prefer proper P2P form where they have jumped round often in mud over 3 miles in any novice/ early career h/cap in decent sized fields, to “bumper form” in often false pace races over less than 2 miles. I liken to footballers toughened in lower leagues/non league against fancy dans from academies…doing step overs at friendly pace. When it gets down to the nitty gritty, I know who I’d want my 5 bob on in the mud!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.