Free Daily Post: 11/11/17 (complete)

TIPS x3 (+ write up) , micros

 

TIPS

Badger Ales Chase

Henllan Harri – 1.5 points win – 12/1 (bet365/SkyB) 11/1 (gen)

Vic De Touzaine – 1 .5 points win – 10/1 (bet365) 9/1 (general)

Mr Mix – 1 point win – 10/1 (gen)

 

Intro… well there is a bit of guesswork as to the going. They are forecast plenty of rain and I can’t think it will be any better than soft, and could well be heavy come this race depending on how much rain falls. In any case these three should be fine on whatever it does. They all have form in soft/heavy and at the prices I was happy to take a punt. Arguably for two of them they have better form on better ground but when they have won/placed on heavy, it is hard to be dogmatic and say they won’t handle it!! All about price.

There were 4 stats/trends I used as pointers… 11-8 or more on back are 0/33,3p the last 10 years (exc claims) 8/10 had 1 or more runs this season. 8/10 had won at least once in last three starts. 8/10 were top 4 LTO.

Those four stats leave Mr Mix, Present Man (ground concern if soft,left him on that basis), Vic De Touzaine, Henllan Harri, Fact of The Matter (going concern/not sure good enough)

In truth, even ignoring those stats, i’d have still homed in on these three I think.

Henllan Harri… well he seemed to improve  last season and won the big end of season race at Sandown. It looks like he has had a prep over hurdles to get him fit, has no weight on his back, gets and excellent 7lb claim, Bowen is in form, and the horse races prominently. He has also been very consistent in recent months, rarely out the places. He won in heavy at Ffos Las, staying on dourly albeit at a lower level. But, if it gets very bad, his stamina should get him through. I’d like to think he will get into a nice rhythm on the front end and just keep galloping. At that price I was happy to play. He should be going close here.

Vic De Touzaine… well he is fit, in form and seemingly progressive in race conditions. He is unexposed over a muddy 3m+. The front two were ahead of the rest when he won LTO and Boric has since come out and run a stormer in a decent enough chase. This one jumps, gallops and grinds away. The only niggle is the fact they have held him up a few times. I hope they are more prominent with him. But, at least he covers the scenario of a pace collapse/the leaders going to quick. He will be staying on at the end, hopefully. I won’t mind if the one above has flown by then and he chases him home!

Mr Mix...he is in form, fit, handles the track and is seemingly progressive. Nicholls has a good record in this. The horse has decent enough form on soft and heavy in the past and there is no way on what he has done that you can see he won’t handle it. So, at the price, I can take a chance. He looks solid enough. Whether he is good enough we shall see but he is going the right way and could keep improving.

of the rest… well I may not have mentioned the winner, we shall see. Nothing else jumped out at me. Yala Enki is interesting but has a lot of weight historically in this. But he is a danger. The Fry horse is interesting but he could just be a slow boat of a horse and a slight ground question in handicap company. There is a chance he wants further. But, if handling the ground, may keep plodding on. No forlorn hope. And no shock winner as such. All of the last 20 winners were in the top 9 in the market when the tapes went up, so that is some guide. I should mention Alfie Spinner…surely some younger legs will win this. He is 12 now and I wonder if he is good enough for a race like this now. I could cheer him home and I will watch the market as it can guide with this yard. If there was one horse at a price I’d be tempted to throw BFSP change at, it would be him. He couldn’t though, could he?!

That’s the lot. There is a fair amount of pace on paper but given conditions they may go sensible, hard to know. Whenever I think there may be a pace burn up in these races, one or two get an easy enough time on the front. Henllan should be up there.

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MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

V Williams (16/1 or shorter)

1.15 Winc – Achille

2.15 Aint – Gardefort

3.35 Winc – Yala Enki

K Lee Chasers (12/1 or shorter)

3.35 Winc – Alfie Spinner (x2 angles)

Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test

1.50 Winc – Wizards Sliabh (12/1< guide)

3.35 Winc – Alfie Spinner (12/1<)

Flat 2017: 60+ Days

1.00 Donc – Easy Victory (14/1 or shorter)

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That’s the lot for today,

Josh

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

12 Responses

  1. I like Final Nudge in the 3:35 at Wincanton if the going is soft or heavy. Trip & track are fine, goes well fresh, likes the time of year, trainer is in good form, decent jockey, everything you need for a 16/1 shot!

  2. Cracking ride on the winner and a superb run from Final Nudge – great spot- well done!

    Clear quite early on at Wincanton – that Hurdles Course (outer of the two) was a lot heavier than the Chase Course and seems all but PFN wrote the winner off on account of ground, but it was soft and he battled home superbly. Hopefully David Dennis will get the big Saturday winners soon as he has a cracking set up down at Hanley Swan and they have spent fortunes on it and starting to deliver.

    Great to see PFN not afraid to give siblings of some great NH names a chance in the saddle; Bowen; Frost ; Morshead to name but 3 and of course ST-D; and these kids are far better to bring on imho than some second rate over-hyped types like Heskin and Cooper to name but 2!

    Didn’t have any joy in the Badger but 2 winners earlier from 2 handicaps at Donny and Aintree means i can have a nice curry after cooking a nice bit of steak for “her indoors” and then down to tomorrows Cards.

    Frankly delighted to see the back of the Turf flat season, great to go out on a win in the last big handicap but the Flat does seem to drag on and one, really should imho start the Monday after the National and end on Saturday before 31 October ; at least it’s jumps; jumps; jumps all the way now with a few AW thrown in when something decent crops up.

    Bring on The Open Meeting – or what ever they have to call it now; to stop people thinking it’s a Golf Tournament; and if you can find anyone who has ever confused the Open Meeting at Cheltenham with a game of Golf; you are probably enjoying a pint with Lord Lucan watching Shergar graze in a field somewhere in Namibia!

      1. Just wish we could have got the treble Tony for you, god knows you lads deserve it.

        My main admin helper (Mike) is ex services and still a reservist, he does a lot of work for charities helping with PTSD etc, the mental scars that no one can see, some of the things he tells me frankly make me cry, and then i get bloody angry….best leave it there but you’ll understand what I mean, you guys should be treated as heroes every day not just 1 day a year #respect

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