Members Daily Post: 07/11/17 (complete)

Section 1 , test zone (NEW!) , updates, Notes (x1)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

 

FLAT

Redcar

1.50 – Royal Shakeen (3yo+) 14 12/1 UP

3.25 – Ingleby Hollow (micro going) H3 I3 9/2

3.55 – Barkston Ash (all hncps) 14,30  33/1 UP 12/1 

 

JUMPS

Exeter

2.00- Vibrato Valtat (hncp chase) 22/1 S2 UP

3.05 –

Castarnie (all hncps + hncp chase) 14 ES I3 16/1 S2 S3 2nd 12/1

Only Gorgeous (hncp chase + m1,m1,m2,m2) ES+  I3 25/1  S2 S3A UP

3.35 – Eddy (m1 + m2) ES+  I1 9/1   S3A UR

4.10 –

Mr Lando (hncp hurdle) 14,30  12/1  S2 UP

Our Phillie Lily (m1) ES+ G1 11/1  S1 S2 S3A UP 

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +  :  Minimum 10 winners, 25% or bigger win strike rate (angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1/’Strategy 1′. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 5th Nov)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 5th Nov)

All Members’ Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info – all  HERE>>> (please flick through,esp if new) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : Bet of The Day…  (Flat: 7/77,28p, -8.1) (Jumps: 9/66, +23.5) (total: 17/150, +15.6)  ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (26/123, +133.5)

 

NOTES

Barkston Ash… No doubt I have completely lost the plot with this old boy but he is 33/1 and I want to have a stab. For good reason he is now OR 53. 8 runs ago he was OR 80. His mark is plummeting and I can’t work out why they are keeping him going – he must be showing something at home unless they treat him like a family pet. Clearly he did have the ability to feature in this and if he recaptured any of his former glory he would win this well. He hasn’t won for an age. Even in his younger days he didn’t like winning that much. But… three things caught the eye, in the context of his price/handicap markl..the trainer is in red hot form 3/14,5p last 30 days, 2/8,4 places the last 14. They are going well. Jason Hart jumps back on for the first time in a few runs. He has ridden him for all four of his most recent wins, the most recent being in 2014! And finally the rest pattern… well I did just note that he returned after 341 days off and then had three runs in quick succession, 20/14/15 days later. He’s had 41 days off since the last of those. That may not mean anything, but it caught my eye anyway. He can race prominently and all race conditions are fine. It is clutching at straws and the Evans horse is entitled to follow up. But, I have dreams of him blasting out and making all. I suspect he has gone at the game but he is 33s and I couldn’t help myself, for change.

Nothing else today for the ‘notes’.

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(do note I have effectively dropped ‘bet of the day’ – and any ‘tips’ come under the ‘Notes’ banner… very odd psychologically, but feeling forced to pick one horse say, just makes me useless it seems!  ‘Notes’ are a bit more liberating and make me more forgiving of certain things I think. Whatever it is the running results speak for themselves. I’ll just leave the ‘notes’ totals up in tomorrow’s post, having ‘banked’ 15.6 points from ‘Bet of The Day’)

Since I totted up the ‘notes’ totals from the start of September, and added the running total on the 6th October (which is when you may have had some actual evidence to judge whether to back them at all), they have won +51 points. Not a bad month…the losers will come soon. I am pleased with how the flat ‘tipping’ has gone, just need to refocus for the jumps. 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Tom Lacey (any odds, for now)

1.30 Exet – Thomas Patrick 2nd 100/1 !!

 

S Dow (Nov/Dec) (any odds)

4.45 Kemp – Galainthias UP

7.15 Kemp- Dutiful Son

 

VIDEO: a dive into HorseRaceBase looking at S Dow…

 

 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Ding Dong! No need to focus on that winner, or jump up and down (25 losers may follow for S2…) (and we back plenty of juicy winners like that over a jumps season!) but I will just hammer home the point that when you play with no odds caps, or with S2 in the 10/1-25/1 range on morning odds, one winner like that can eradicate any recent losing runs in one fell swoop. S2 had lost 17 points since last Monday, it is now 3 points up. That is how quickly things ‘can’ change, and do, every now and then.

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RESEARCH….

I have tidied up the key a bit and added the following, as you can see above….

All Members’ Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

All previous Members’ research etc can be found in that link. If you are ever bored there is plenty in there to flick through and give you ideas, esp if you like researching your own angles etc. It’s a bit mad looking at it all in one place. I have added David’s content in there including the three updates so far. Dip in and out as you please.

My latest Betting Insiders’ Club article is in there also, which you can read HERE>>>  

That one looks at Jockey Course+Distance specialists for Jumps + All-Weather. I will clear some space out in my HRB accounts, add them in, and get tracking any qualifiers in the ‘Test Zone’ section above. The Tom Lacey research is also in that post.

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Updated Advised Strategies Links: Now Updated in Key Above.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

16 Responses

  1. 10/1 looks generous for Sir Valentino 2pm to repeat last years victory,Tom George not in the best of form at the moment,but SV improved with each run last year,not beaten far in champion chase,his last run was probably just one too many after a hard season.Won the corresponding race after a break also so that wont be an excuse fro failure,might prefer good ground,but at the price worth a go

  2. Alaskian Bay is a very good price 33/1 BV 1.10 Wolverhamption,im hoping the 70 day layoff is to strengthen him up and not a training setback

  3. No less than 14 tracker entries. Yikes it’s getting big.
    But to be honest out of them only 2 floated my boat.
    BALLYOPTIC 2:35 Exeter. Looked like he may of needed the run last time out but he has solid top class previous form price is short but hopefully will go well.

    FROSTBITE 1:40 Wolverhampton. Making his handicap debut for Eve Johnson Houghton r18/w2/p6 w11.11 p33.33 +21.00 should be fit and right up there with pace which is where you want to be at Wolverhampton. He drops back in class today and 6/1 looks ok to me.

    NINJAGO 6:45 kempton. Now this one wasn’t on my tracker but I do like the sprint races. This one stood out to me. Looked to be unlucky and got squeezed into 3rd last time out. Gone up 1lb in the weights for that run and drops down in class today. Pace suggests he will be up at the front which where I like them. 4/1 looks decent.

    1. Ah, cheers William… I did need a reminder! I will have a good look later/decide whether to record a vid/or some notes etc. No problem.

  4. Josh,

    Thanks for the video, again really insightful, I love the stats based approach and fully subscribe to it, if I had time i would do a lot more ground work myself, until then (retirement) I’m more than happy to pay for the membership **thumbs up**

    Kevin

    1. Thanks Kevin, pleased you find them of some interest! Albeit I do hope that when you retire and get stuck in to your own research etc that you don’t leave us completely! 🙂
      Josh

  5. Today at Wolves

    210 I feel that Chough might have a bit too much pace for these. Has a bad draw but if it can get a position early , which it should be able to given the hold up performers, it hopefully wins

    315 Although respecting the chances of Power Home who is running well at the moment I want to take a chance on Windsorlot. Had a wide trip last time at Kempton over a bit too far. Seems to be quite pacey so should be able to hold a good early position and will see out this trip better than most.

    420 I always like to take on newcomers and don’t think Majboor has done too much wrong other than not win, hopefully todays the day

    other thoughts

    Don’t like the front of the market in the 140 so taken a chance with Obrigada, Foxrush and Prime Chief. Alsvinder in the sprint. First 3 in betting in the 345. In the last a poor race so taken a chance with Top Offer and Claires Secret

    Main bets would be Chough and Windsorlot ew double ,and Majboor to win

    Good luck if you play

  6. 1 feel may outrun his odds is You Say What 3.05 Exeter, I took 20/1 last night and he is now best price at 14/1.
    Quick explanation is I think there could be better to come from it and Pipe in class 3 handicap chases on good to soft or soft going, priced between 8/1 and 20/1 iirc was 4/19/8p.
    I see he had just went 12/1 so I think they may have the money down.

    1. I hope you’re right Chris, i’ve tipped him on the free post in that at 20s/18s, along with two others I was stronger on… wasn’t until I was writing up that the stars aligned with him and at that price had to have a dart. Could be nothing but he really is in the ‘could be anything’ category as a chaser.
      9/1 top price, 8s a plenty…some money has come from somewhere. Him, my other two, or R Walfords would do the ticket! Expensive race for me if none come in haha. GL

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