King Of Glory – 1 point win – 14/1 (gen) UP
Umberto D’Olivate – 1 point win – 16/1 (gen) UP
Vieux Lille – 1 point win – 7/1 (gen) 8/1 (bet365) UP
URGH! Three/four ‘value losers’ there… let me go and stare at the winner… my pin was nowhere near him…
Shortlist: those two, Vieux Lille , Zephryos Bleu..(a saver??) and about 10 others!! 🙂
King of Glory… lightly raced, clearly had problems, but ran a stormer after 414 days at Sandown in Feb. A repeat of that puts him in the mix for me. This will only be his second chase start over this trip and I have no concerns that he will be fit enough- If connections want him fit. I thought given his profile (clearly had issues) that their best hope may be first time up, and he will be tuned to the max. He should race prominently and 14s just felt a few points too big.
Umberto D’Olivate… more exposed but still from a mark he can win from and his form around here over fences,and when fresh, again made his price just look too big. I would be surprised if they haven’t tuned him up as best they can. He is a solid jumper who races on the front end. He could get plenty of these in trouble. Worth a dart, albeit something with more potential/more in hand, may nab him…
Both of these will be in the right place, tactically- or they should be – on the front end, galloping the others into submission.
Well I have changed my mind… Vieux Lille is worth backing here… the more I think about it the more I think a repeat of that novice run behind American, or that Haydock run behind Yala Enki, is just very good form… he will be fit, the yard is flying, he will race prominently. My only concern was his jumping- given his profile, that is built into his price I think, just about- and I was restricting myself to 2 points, but given the nature of this race…I’ll indulge onto 3, esp having re-read my thoughts below
What I had written…
Where to start?! There are at least 7/8 ‘unexposed’ chasers in here who one day are entitled to show more. One of them may well do that today (I would count Venetia’s in that category, esp over this trip)… Vieux Lille is the main danger… and I WILL be having something on him, but don’t want to tip more than 2 points in this race…and I could make a case for two at much bigger prices. That simply really. The yard is flying and if he repeats that Haydock run over fences then he goes close here. My concern is his jumping as he did like hitting the odd fence at the back end of last year. He is entitled to be better, but two starts ago it was a poor round given the time he had to measure fences etc. Clearly I will not be falling off my seat if he wins this. With a good round of jumping he could do it well. I am intrigued as to how they ride him. For my sake I hope he is held up, but I suspect they may try and be aggressive- that is fraught with dangers also. An obvious chance, but not 14/1, or 16/1. I couldn’t help myself with the other two.
I suppose Zephroyos Bleu deserves a mention because he is lightly raced over fences and is another who represents a bang in form yard , that can ready them at home. I wouldn’t be shocked if he ran an ok race.
And I suspect I may not have mentioned the winner. I was happy to take on the fav at 5s. Bailey’s horse has fitness to prove, stamina to a point, and is inexperienced in big fields- at 6s that was enough to put a line through him. Another unexposed one who could run well though.
It is that sort of race. Not one you should really bet on but I cannot help myself with this type of puzzle. It’s far too much fun attempting to crack it!
GL with any bets.
VIDEO PREVIEW (it may be 30 mins, having aimed for 15! You can listen and not watch, while getting on with your daily lives 🙂 )
K Lee Chasers (12/1<)
3.20 Exet- Jayo Time
Trainer/Jocky Combo – Live Test
3.20 Exeter- Jayo Time (12/1<)
MORE FREE STUFF….
If you missed my email yesterday, with a superb freebie from my good pal Ben Aitken, you can read it HERE>>>
(his is one of three email lists I would advise you joining…well, I enjoy being on them..his, Gavin’s – join here>>, and Matt’s- join here>>>. Quality freebies/info, throughout the year, guaranteed. Being on said lists will improve you as a punter, and make you more profitable over time. Or, worst case, provide you with something interesting to read! 🙂 )
In Ben’s report he has looked at 5 jumps jockeys who are dynamite on front runners… I had a hunch for most of them, one was a total surprise and is worth noting… take a look HERE>>>
That’s the lot for today,
GL with any bets, Josh