TIPS
3.20 Exeter-
King Of Glory – 1 point win – 14/1 (gen) UP
Umberto D’Olivate – 1 point win – 16/1 (gen) UP
Vieux Lille – 1 point win – 7/1 (gen) 8/1 (bet365) UP
URGH! Three/four ‘value losers’ there… let me go and stare at the winner… my pin was nowhere near him…
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Shortlist: those two, Vieux Lille , Zephryos Bleu..(a saver??) and about 10 others!! 🙂
Notes:
King of Glory… lightly raced, clearly had problems, but ran a stormer after 414 days at Sandown in Feb. A repeat of that puts him in the mix for me. This will only be his second chase start over this trip and I have no concerns that he will be fit enough- If connections want him fit. I thought given his profile (clearly had issues) that their best hope may be first time up, and he will be tuned to the max. He should race prominently and 14s just felt a few points too big.
Umberto D’Olivate… more exposed but still from a mark he can win from and his form around here over fences,and when fresh, again made his price just look too big. I would be surprised if they haven’t tuned him up as best they can. He is a solid jumper who races on the front end. He could get plenty of these in trouble. Worth a dart, albeit something with more potential/more in hand, may nab him…
Both of these will be in the right place, tactically- or they should be – on the front end, galloping the others into submission.
Dangers…
Well I have changed my mind… Vieux Lille is worth backing here… the more I think about it the more I think a repeat of that novice run behind American, or that Haydock run behind Yala Enki, is just very good form… he will be fit, the yard is flying, he will race prominently. My only concern was his jumping- given his profile, that is built into his price I think, just about- and I was restricting myself to 2 points, but given the nature of this race…I’ll indulge onto 3, esp having re-read my thoughts below
What I had written…
Where to start?! There are at least 7/8 ‘unexposed’ chasers in here who one day are entitled to show more. One of them may well do that today (I would count Venetia’s in that category, esp over this trip)… Vieux Lille is the main danger… and I WILL be having something on him, but don’t want to tip more than 2 points in this race…and I could make a case for two at much bigger prices. That simply really. The yard is flying and if he repeats that Haydock run over fences then he goes close here. My concern is his jumping as he did like hitting the odd fence at the back end of last year. He is entitled to be better, but two starts ago it was a poor round given the time he had to measure fences etc. Clearly I will not be falling off my seat if he wins this. With a good round of jumping he could do it well. I am intrigued as to how they ride him. For my sake I hope he is held up, but I suspect they may try and be aggressive- that is fraught with dangers also. An obvious chance, but not 14/1, or 16/1. I couldn’t help myself with the other two.
I suppose Zephroyos Bleu deserves a mention because he is lightly raced over fences and is another who represents a bang in form yard , that can ready them at home. I wouldn’t be shocked if he ran an ok race.
And I suspect I may not have mentioned the winner. I was happy to take on the fav at 5s. Bailey’s horse has fitness to prove, stamina to a point, and is inexperienced in big fields- at 6s that was enough to put a line through him. Another unexposed one who could run well though.
It is that sort of race. Not one you should really bet on but I cannot help myself with this type of puzzle. It’s far too much fun attempting to crack it!
GL with any bets.
VIDEO PREVIEW (it may be 30 mins, having aimed for 15! You can listen and not watch, while getting on with your daily lives 🙂 )
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MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES
K Lee Chasers (12/1<)
3.20 Exet- Jayo Time
Trainer/Jocky Combo – Live Test
3.20 Exeter- Jayo Time (12/1<)
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MORE FREE STUFF….
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(his is one of three email lists I would advise you joining…well, I enjoy being on them..his, Gavin’s – join here>>, and Matt’s- join here>>>. Quality freebies/info, throughout the year, guaranteed. Being on said lists will improve you as a punter, and make you more profitable over time. Or, worst case, provide you with something interesting to read! 🙂 )
In Ben’s report he has looked at 5 jumps jockeys who are dynamite on front runners… I had a hunch for most of them, one was a total surprise and is worth noting… take a look HERE>>>
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That’s the lot for today,
GL with any bets, Josh
69 Responses
Nick – I think you should go on holiday more often
Cheers
Ben
I will do a write up later if I have time but I would take 8/1 on Vieux Lille now (1pt e/w)
Well done today Nick. Great write up as usual. Backed both in a straight double, got 10s and 11s, rule 4 spoilt it a little but cant complain. Thanks mate, top stuff again.
Urgh, never good when you like something I don’t haha- esp when you are in this form- can see why you like him, I would like to think one of us will have the winner… I am torn whether to throw him in for tipping purposes but I should try and keep my 2 point discipline. GL
changed my mind- and having pondered further he is worth a point- silly given only niggle was jumping- but he has an interesting profile/form, and 8s/7s allows the play. We have the winner now! 🙂
Lol he does seem like a prime first fence faller material to burst the bubble but you pretty much covered it. Given his record at Exeter winning 3 out of 4 with a 3rd, his run behind American who is now rated 158 and co-fav for the Hennessey (not to mention the 2nd is rated 154 and the 4th behind him is rated in the 140s) and the his 2nd going on his unfavoured left handed direction in the Tommy Whittle (winner won again later in the season) which is traditionally a strong race he could absolutely destroy these. Hobbs record at the track the only other slight niggle.
ha, yep, but he does look solid and really the most interesting of the ‘unexposed’ /more lightly raced chasers. Arguably on those two pieces of placed for he should be fav. And RJ wasn’t on when he had his really bad round of jumping- maybe he does just like it here. No excuse for a good run from him really. Hobbs does ok here, in chases/3m/60+ days.. well 2/12,4p, and his stats are ok- his recent form makes up for any niggles- they are bouncing. All built into price. A great race in store.
He is now at about the price I expected him to go off at.
Indeed, he was 3 or so points too big, we shall see if he stays there, or drifts/shortens when entering paddock! All four on the ‘shortlist’ are the only ones being backed really- bit of money around for Alvarado it seems- i’s be shocked if he won this- has needed the run the last few seasons and gets outpaced over 3m4f+ these days, before staying on- in what isn’t a bog, ground wise, i’d be surprised. Stranger things have happened no doubt. We shall see if the early market signals are correct!
GL
considering the price,13 wins, 19 secons and 14 thirds aint so bad…
Vieux Lille Exeter Tuesday 15:20 1pt e/w-already covered above
Scrutinise Exeter Tuesday 14:20 0.75pt e/w (personally would take the 18/1 4 places rather than the 20/1 3 places)-This is a slight punt but he could be absolutely chucked in here. He was rated 98 on the flat and is running over 103 here. His family have generally been good jumpers including his half brother Grumeti (140 rated multi class 1 winner and shock 50/1 Cesarewitch winner). Jockey has predominantly raced in hunter chases but is no mug and is 1/7, 4p for the trainer this year. He gets first time cheekpieces here as well so doing something different. The Vaughan yard flying with 3 winners and a 2nd from their last 9 runners. Likes to race prominently so should be near the pace.
Scrumpy Boy Exeter Tuesday 16:20 1pt e/w-Has come from a hot race where the 3rd has won 2 class 4 hurdles and the 4th won a class 4 chase. Drops down 3lbs here and drops back 2f in distance which will help since I don’t think he quite stayed the 2m7f LTO. Trainer has won with 2 of his last 3 runners after not having a winner since April before that. I also like the fact that the trainer’s only other runner on the card happens to be stable star and Grade 2 bumper winner Lalor who is meant to be extremely good (beat a whole host of very good horses) since I am a firm believer that if a trainer has 2 runners at the track if the first ones there is a decent chance the 2nd one follows up.
Bryony doesn’t ride for her dad but this instead.
the 3.20 looks too competitive to me for a bet. In the 2.20 I like Nick’s pick of Scrutinise and have taken the 20/1.
There is an interesting runner in the 9.15 KP on the sand. Mesophere is ex Gosden, now with Harry Fry (a self confessed perfectionist), moving up in trip, promising run LTO. (/1 at present.
Well, I’m gonna go against the big boys (Josh, Nick) in tomorrow’s 1520 Exeter. The horse I’m backing is Alvarado. Some say it’s to short, I’ll say it’s not. The going will be on the soft side, the track is stiff so the pace will not be as great to get rid of the great fighting machine. Last 2f he will pull like an old school steam train and the rest will not know what’s hit them. This is my prediction and just to clarify my nick name is Nostradamus
Just wanna say thanks to Nick, I was on both yesterday and also for most of the winners in the last few weeks. Also thanks to Josh for giving me the opportunity to become a member again through the discounted offer. The website + content is worth every penny and a lot more.
Since I’ve been back (circa 6wks) I’ve been backing TTP horses along with tips posted in comments. I’ve now built a bank 4x the size of my initial input. I’ve been on the website for a couple of years prior but I never previously had a proper bank to bet systematically. I learned this lesson the hard way losing too much when many here are building their banks. I’m glad to say I’m finally seeing the light, the years of observing on there pages is now paying off. Keep up the good work Josh! And the rest of the many posters (Nick, Ian, 2 Martin’s, Jack, Colin, Tonymc, Chris, Gearoid…) Hopefully I’ll be able to add something myself in the coming months to give something back.
Thanks Joe for the mention, i agree…its a great site and “forum” to discuss racing…I’ve been after something along those lines for awhile. Most don’t see enough site traffic!
I am taking my time with getting used to the site as well….Over the last 2 years i have cut the number of bets i’ve had each week and been more selective. I am not saying Josh isn’t selective by the way, his approaches generate selections in races i wouldnt normally dream of betting in.
This is partly why i am finding the site very useful however, as i wouldn’t say i have the time or motivation to follow a lot of the horses/races in England as i find they are on so often. Josh’s website and stats etc. help me increase my number of bets whilst not betting “blind” so to speak!
Thanks Joe, that’s very kind.. I think we have all ‘been there’…and occasionally we will lose discipline, for a short time, and be there again haha – when we wonder off any systematic approach- that happens, just have to control it- but the general point cannot be hammered home enough- i suppose it is about mental training, forming habits etc- took me a few years! Just about there now. I have repeated your comment in the members’ post, hope you don’t mind, as it is worth pondering and you will be echoing the thoughts of many I suspect.
We have built something decent here, especially on the ‘community’ front, and long may it continue. And your future comments are always welcome.
Josh
Don’t mind at all Josh
I’ll echo that mentality/habit point, took me a long time to move away from the front end of the market or the ‘easy’ bet. So much more fun & enjoyment now in seeking out the value bets that can be hidden further down the price list!
never a truer word spoken… it is the only way for the hobby bettor – I am convinced of that- as the returns are greater and it is much more fun.. now, while you can spot ‘value’ at the top end (consistently over time is tough though,and need to put in so much time,more so than hobbyist has!) if you are backing 2/1< 11/4< regularly for £2.50s, £5s, £10s... I am certain everyone hits the point where they are not happy with the financial return to effort ratio - that's if you win regularly enough of course- and that is what tests you- eventually you either bet too much, or go chasing, or think it's easy - and then you lose. Whereas when you train yourself to look at, generally but not exclusively, in the 6/1+ range, if you find a successful approach you get so much more back for your £2.50-£10s . I mean £5 or £10 on Boots and Spurs at 25s-33s - well that is a lot of 6/4 shots!! And well, if you end up betting £200s+ at the top end- then, good luck to you. You need to have a lot to lose and have a mental capacity I doubt I posses- too stressful also- and this game has to be enjoyable first and foremost. Sounds like you're becoming one of the 3-5% of long term winners- bookies beware! Josh
I’m certainly on the right road and the right forum here to work towards that goal! : )
Discipline afraid even us old ones have the odd lapse last christmas must have had one to many for on the 28th December joined LEE BOLINGBROKE after he had sent me 2 weeks trial including a couple of his own horses which both won 10/1 and 4/1,after joining total collapse with 3 winning months and 6 losing months and October will be another losing month,cancelled my subscription yesterday with a loss of £892.90 to £50 stakes,have to be careful what i say but my advice do not touch his service with a barge pole.,just stick to Joshs Racing To Profit
I am finding “Always Back Winners” to be a successful tipster after using them for the last month with several good priced winners
yesterday gave Hayley Turner’s nice 15/2 winner of the early race at Windsor….sent out @ 10/1
Totally agree there Colin I’ve just also had a 2 weeks trial with Lee bolingbroke but this morning requested to cancel after yesterday’s losing 5/4 shot it’s not for me, much prefer the value & josh site is invaluable in that department with his notes & other members notes & long may it continue!
Do you guys try a lot of tipsters? not something i would ever consider as majority are unreliable for me, and often lose…
I would completely agree with those comments about Lee Bolingbroke Racing, one for all to swerve in the future
Yesterday for the first time I followed Nick’s couple of selections (free post) and was most impressed. I think by his own standards he had been having an up and season but he appears to have come back totally refreshed and raring to hit the bookies. Certainly one of the contributors on here to follow
Jack; there are a lot of tipsters who are unreliable but some do offer a good level of customer service (this is not a sales pitch btw just an observation).
I would though stand up for good Tipsters and believe you have hit one nail very firmly on the head when you say they “often lose”. I will be 100% honest with you, a lot of mine lose, but we have a strategy that seeks to optimise winners and placed horses and to mitigate (draw down) and therefore losers, to consistently achieve a nice steady profit.
I think too many tipsters (the bad ones and a few good ones) market and advertise claims that cannot be achieved or substantiated and therefore lure in and ultimately disappoint unsuspecting clients. The old adage is “if it sounds too good to be true it usually is” and that is something never truer than when looking at Racing Tipsters.
Always look for independent proofing, never go by advised prices and another favourite of mine, the more they spend on advertising (and a page in the Racing Post costs northwards of £1500) the more likely they are to grab your money and not deliver on anything promised since Racing Post steadfastly refuse to make public their proofing or indeed advertise it – preferring instead to have small print with ridiculous things like “based on average bets of £1000 to advised prices”
Hope this helps!
I track a number of tipsters. I get free or discounted trials and I can hang on keeping them if I give them feedback as a serious punter. I dont want to share who is good and bad in this blog but if anyone is interested email me mcolwell1959@aol.com.
I tried Lee Bollinbrooke about 4yrs ago failed miserably. Too many tipsters advise winners at unattainable prices resulting in losses for most subscribers. I joined Ian’s sp2a service because of Josh recommendation and because results are recorded to SP.
I know Lee B. He hit a terrible run. He used to have a link into the Greatrex stable as an owner and struggled a bit with the yards horses going off short and not performing that well. Lee has his fingers in a number of pies as well as horse race tipping.As he has an annual charge I would say give it a miss.
GOLF BETS WGC HSBC CHAMPIONS
Pat Perez 1 point EW 1/4 5 33/1 CO BW BB 888 Bet Stars
not played here since his debut in 2010 when he finished 10th,he his in outstanding form at present with a win in the CIMB and a 5th in the CJ Cup and at 33/1 worth a bet.
Francesco Molinari 1 point EW 1/4 5 33/1 CO BF 888 Bet Stars Unibet
had him in the Italian Open when he disappointed in the final round finishing 6th,Sheshan is a course which suits Molinari with a win in 2010 and two top 10 finishes since including 6th last year.
October profit 25.6 points Total profit since September 46.6 points.
Pat Perez in hot form and the 33/1 looks reasonable. I also like Ross Fisher at 28/1. He is in good form at present and has good form at this course and plays OK in China generally. He said in an interview that he does like this course.
That 2.50 at exeter is one for the notebook, it looks to have plenty of winners in waiting…
Josh will probably have come across Rhys Williams on the tweet machine, absolute judge, he has mentioned how hyped or well regarded Kapcorse has been since his early days in Fr.
Harefield for Alan King is of interest going forward “needing 2m 4+ on a galloping track”…finishing 4th in the Goffs sales bumper..2nd hasn’t helped the form tho and the 3rd fell on hurdle debut..5th won after. Interestingly he ran a lovely debut at the track.
Onefortheroadtom…of personal interest as i know Brian Hamilton who trained him for his ptp….he has sold the likes of Lucky Pass, Definitely Red..I look forward to seeing him run also.
Hope Lalor translates his bumper form to hurdles for a smaller operator!
LALOR is the best horse his trainer has ever had and his win in the Aintree bumper
is top form but Exeter is a very different track.
11/10 in an 18 runner field is very short with the big yards having horses that may be suited
to the soft conditions and a big chance that Woollacott will not have his stable star 100%
wound up for his hurdles debut.
The horse could hack up but big field jump races put extra pressure on the horses
with crowding and bumping approaching the hurdles
Lalor has never run over hurdles and on debut face 17 rivals
a race to watch rather than bet in as you could spot a few unlucky runners.
The 3.20 with 16 runners will all be down to jumping ability
in big fields chases a higher percentage of horses fall because of the crowding
and general chaos in these races.
I like experience and young horses often come to grief
BINDON MILL at 11/1 looks to have solid e/w chance but again there could be a few
horses taken out of their stride who will be worth a 2nd chance
2.40 Newcastle
Qianlong was 2nd in a class 2 at York and prior to that has solid placed form
so it is strange to see him third in the betting behind Big Kitten who was 2nd in a grade5 at Beverley
and Moqarrar who has twice been beaten in this grade
often the punters will go for horses who have been beaten only once or twice over one that has 4 or more places but looking at the form as achieved so far QIANLONG is the best horse in the race and at 3/1
looks the bet
The stable think Moqarrar is working well, hence the money.
Cheers Chris thanks for the heads up on the Stoute horse saved me a packet
Bindon scraped the place but hard winner to find
Two straight winners for Noel Fehily the guy seems to be getting better
with age and experience
Think he and Fry are a combo worth following this year.
Tom never went for the whip on Lalor and I think he was
under instructions to go easy on the horse.
Turning in he was absolutely cantering but wasn’t asked for any effort until a length or so down
nearly got back up but I suppose 4k races at Exeter are not the aim
Think he will be at Cheltenham for a novice hurdle next time
but neither did Noel on the winner so both could be useful
The Tizard horse who finished third is bred for much further(Oscar out of a Supreme Leader mare)
and it was a very encouraging run.
Step up to 2m 4f will suit next time
Tom wins just about….Hobbs horse hits the tracker!
Good little race that.. i’ll track them when they go 3m+ chasing in a few years haha.
another boost for P2P form and background – especially the 3rd.
some serious horses come from NHFlat but imho too often P2P gets overlooked and is a great experience since it gets horses racing in winter conditions over fences a year or so earlier than those who go down NHF route and crucially they race at race pace in P2P and not always in NHF which can turn in to 6 furlong sprints.
The analogy I’d use is in football – a kid who has played non league against men from 18 to 21 as opposed to a kid who has played just u21 football – one for a 5th tier non league side and one for a top 6 prem side – amazing how the kid who has played at full pace proper football v men will often become better player same a lot of the time (not all) but significant amount when considering NHF v P2P in juvenile hurdles.
Hi Jack…do you have any thoughts on Althiba 2.15 Fairyhouse….it’s been knocking on the door and is not a bad’n but is still a 10 race maiden…
I’ve took 5/1 with B365.
Tony Mc.
Hi Tony,
I had written a response to this, before getting distracted in work and clicking “x” how dare work distract me…haha!
I looked at the card last night and decided it was one of those end of season cards to avoid. Plenty of drab running.
On Althiba, her heavy ground form would be my first worry. She is being moved back to 6fs, but at fairyhouse, that shouldnt be too much of worry as theres an uphill finish. She has sprinters in her ped, but its taken 8 runs to move her back from 7f or further…so she mustnt show too much pace.
I must admit, she strikes me as a horse i would need to watch back replays on to judge fully, as some of her form seems decent, but recently she seems to have stagnated slightly.
KP has a low strike rate at the track, but considering that, his P/L isn’t as low as you’d expect, so he must have a fair priced winner now and then. Chris Hayes form at the track and in general might be a worry. 0-24 in 14days and 6 from 104 at track.
I like E Lynam as a trainer and often find he has good S/Rs. Wouldnt surprise me if he produced the winner in the race….but i wouldn’t put you off yours totally as the race is of a poor level. More Negs than positives, but i think i’d have that for almost every horse in the race lol.
Thanks for that Jack… i don’t know why i have it a top rater in my ratings I’ve done it with Bronze age earlier, but the prices are bad, must have been at the cratur…..lol
Cheers……….Tony Mc.
Yeah Tony, i’m not surprised she is top rated…most pieces of form and some of it quite good too. Wide open maiden, GL!
Almost all of my focus is now on the Jumps but had a horse in my tracker for ages, indeed since this time last year called MAKADANGDANG runs in closer at Kempton at 9.15. Have looked back at my notes and it showed some promise late last year and also first run this season at Brighton. Then vanished for best part of 4 months. Three comeback runs have been very poor but my notes said needs 11-12 furlongs and it gets it here in what should be a truly run race.
I am intrigued Oisin Murphy rides it as form would indicate an ideal ride for an apprentice but he hangs around to the “lucky last” (does have a full book of rides). It must be one of the worst horses in the yard, but not a yard known for Class 6 horses, so may be it might spark tonight if not; would imagine it will be sent to sales and picked up by a C6/C7 AW yard.
I’ve had a couple of quid on at 18/1 just to scratch the itch really, although it might be the delete button on the tracker at 9.20pm that gets scratched..just after Bake off and before Celebrity Hunted (sad!)
Very Ian…lol
One little AW punt with Lads/Coral/Sky paying odds to 4th on 4.10 at Newcastle.
KENNY THE CAPTAIN loves Tapeta, won here last year CL 3 off 85 – on zoom up the ratings from mid 60’s in 2016, had to fall back down to low 70’s and back to C4 to find form and confidence again this time round but back in C4 here off 79 looks very nicely weighted.
As I mentioned yesterday in my email a few had written Tim Easterby off for the season; but Silvery Moon was 3rd winner in 4 days and if you look at the 30 odds losers in a row earlier in month; most were 2 years olds having first runs and looking for handicap marks so think you can take stable form as being more than adequate IF the horse is up for the run and I don’t think they will pass any decent chance on Tapeta.
Bit of shrapnel each way
Just had a look at him… my word he looks solid, very good record at the track also, and in higher class/higher mark.. think you can give excuses a couple of recent runs. Can see why you are interested- I mean as it is on the AW if I get involved you are buggered- i can curse one on the sand- but he looks solid…only course winner in the race I think also. GL
Hi Josh, Is Orchid Lily in the 1.30 at Yarmouth, not a selection under the Gosden 60+ days rule?
Hi Allan… yep, sure is! Missed that one, many system quals blurring into one there. GL if you dabble.
Josh
Both Josh and (Ian sp2a) have helped me refocus my studies into racing.It’s good to get different views and it helps with the profit angle ,if you know there are a few others who are not “in form” etc.
The sooner everyone realises it’s about the profit and not winners ,the better you become ,losing runs will come ,but, there is nothing better in my opinion than seeing your fancy cruising 3 out with everything else pushing away ,knowing your on the “one” that you and a couple of others have picked at a tasty 10/1 ,going off sp favourite…the losers then pale into insignificance!
Very strange that money is now coming for G Elliot’s in the 3.10 @ Newcastle into 12/1 from 25/1 maybe worth a go ew
There is one for your trackers then QUIDS IN Ludlow on Thursday from Oliver Grenhall just won opener at Exeter with a nice horse very impressively, never be afraid to follow an in form young trainer who clearly knows time of day and whose horses are fit to go! – especially when they talk positively about it – that wins and his phone rings with potential new owners, it bombs out and he is just another “Over optimist”…
Yep, good post race interview… looks like winner will be attempting to make all again soon,albeit won’t be much of a price no doubt. Quids in one to keep an eye on – unexposed, will be fit after his flat run LTO where he said a bit unlucky…hmmm.
some times you just have to hold your hands up – could not have picked that in a month of sundays!
OK won at meeting last yearbut pulled up last time, summer jumper, surely needed better ground.
Great ride and race fitness probably key against a lot needing run who went off too quickly. Proximity of the wonderful old Alvorado indicates they blew it up front…
onwards and upwards and lots for the tracker.
Yep, esp given most of those pace pushers were returning after a break…albeit Bailey’s did just lob along..to the eye didn’t look overly aggressive. But yep, Alvarado the benchmark…in any case plenty not fit enough/maybe did too much…
Yea I can live with him, am sure only 12s or so last night/morning before drifting… unexposed…1/3 chasing, had that going for him..but looked like summer form, didn’t like PU/fact a moody bugger, and the ground – which in fairness was more an unknown, hardly raced on it (which was an indication in itself I think!) and it is soft.
Venetia’s looked threatening for a moment – no confidence he will follow that up though/come on for it.
Bugger, on we go.
Good warm up tipping wise though me thinks; just nothing like a 3 mile + Chase and you often have to look outside the normal form box and consider “fizzy” first time out horses and impact on pace – slap on wrist for myself but as I always used to say to people “we all make mistakes just don’t keep making the same mistake time after time”…..on to the next decent 3 mile + Chase and a bit more tactical awareness… roll on Cheltenham Friday/Saturday then Aintree……
Yeah I couldn’t have ever found that one. We were due one.
Indeed we were! I mean always easy after the race… if you say… he is unexposed chaser, generally consistent, (high win/place SR), ground unknown..guessing as to how soft actually is, last day an off day, fit, in form if you ignore LTO, course form..could be pace collapse (in context some may not be fit)… BUT.. I can live with it, as I’m sure he was generally 12s last night, this morning… before taking a walk…and at that price, just a few too many questions. Not least thought more a summer horse and assumed a winter beast would have his measure.
Still, annoyed how poorly they all ran. Can’t complain mind. That’s how it goes and been a mad few weeks in all corners!
Nah I am never backing that horse in that race. I could find the 2nd,3rd, 4th and 5th but never the winner. But that’s OK.
Looking post race it is interesting that the winner is now 5 from 5 on undualting or very undulating tracks and I just wonder if that is the key as he has never won on ground this soft or in races worth more than 6k.
Possibly… which would make logical sense if he is a ‘thinker’ – much like putting such a flat horse around tight bends..the constant up and down, position of fences etc, may just occupy his mind…(that is something I have picked up recently from a few interviews over the summer etc- and another reason why some horses may prefer X conditions) trainer said he has some engine and mainly depends on his mood, whether he is happy in his race. He did win at Worcester over hurdles, but, maybe for chasing it is key. They have maybe gone too hard and plenty have ran if needing it/sulked etc. So, to a point has fallen apart. But, yea..one to watch..he does want decent ground generally – trainer thought not too soft today- and one to watch next summer…when he is good he is good, very consistent really, more good runs than bad. I mean at 20s/hit 33s, you can roll the dice..12s looked skinny- enough but I am always annoyed when I don’t find the winner of those,esp when a price. And in context of how poorly mine ran. He’d only had 3 chase runs also, and hadn’t proved he didn’t handle certain conditions in this sphere. Always something to ponder. Next time!
Interesting point about occupying the horses mind and something that I had not thought about before. I had discounted him in this class and on soft ground but maybe I need to think a little more outside of the box.
Conversely the second is 3 from 3 on flat tracks and 1 from 11 on tracks with undulations.
Yep always plenty to think about… I am happy that no amount of thinking outside the box would have elevated him as a selection above those three I liked at the prices. But yea, with ‘thinkers’ you’d always want a price!
for once a poor day thought we might have turned a corner with kenny the captain from ian you liked it josh. but even the judge didnt like us today
Yep, done in a photo, nose… which summed up the day really… will be many more like that ahead, I have been on a mad run, and game isn’t as easy as Nick, myself, or SP2A have made it look at times! All fine in long run, but I for one am due a few losers…maybe the change of seasons is what will usher it in. Will try hard to keep it going though.
Yeah only thing I can take away today is 2 of the 3 picks were well backed (8/1 into 7/2 and 12/1 into 4/1)
KTC did as well as he could have, I’ll take a bit of that e/w shrapnel every time, just could not fathom how poor Sutters Mill ran and even more baffled when stable mate and jock head home 1st in the next – that’s racing…back to the form-book!…
Football – The Carabao Cup is back this evening. On the premise that Premier League teams put out their 2nd XI’s I will go with Middlesbrough at 4/1 and Leeds at 5/1.
Love reading all the thoughts and comments, great site Josh, Not a good day at Exeter like everyone else, did a small E/W lucky 15, Dream Start and Incredible Dream at Yarmouth, Tricky Dicky at Newcastle just deciding whether to let Sky Eagle Run in the 8.45 Kempton or cash out for a profit on the bet??