Free Daily Post: 23/10/17 (complete)

Just the micro today

TIPS 

None.

 

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test

3.00 Plump – Stoical Patient (14/1 or shorter SP)

*

 

Noting else from me today, a quiet day ahead on the free post anyway.

GL with any bets,

Josh

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

34 Responses

  1. Nick’s comment from yesterday’s post, for today’s racing…

    Couple for tomorrow (short write ups since it feels like 1:30AM and my eyelids are starting to shut):

    Silvery Moon Pontefract Monday 15:20 1pt e/w-Down to a class 4 having gone close in a class 3 at Haydock beaten by a clearly well treated horse. Has won 4 of his last 5 starts in class 4 races worth less than 6k; has placed in his last 3 starts over course and distance; is drawn well whilst most of the market principles are not; David Allan who gets well with the horse is back for the first time since the Haydock run 9the only other time he has rode him this season he went close in the Carlisle Bell); Both Allan and Easterby have great records at the track both independently and together. Won’t mind the ground and I expect him to go close.
    Oh Land Abloom Plumpton Monday 16:30 1pt e/w-We backed him back in April when he got mugged on the line. (I believe Hugh’s comment was “Oh Land of Injustice” or something close to that) The key to this horse is running fresh and barring his run on soft ground his record off a break of 90+ days reads 1222. They are not expecting much rain so ground should be pretty close to Good tomorrow. Whilst he hasn’t won left handed he has ran well in a number of races so I don’t think that will be an issue. The claimer takes off a handy 7lbs. This is far easier than that race in April and 14s was too big.

      1. Always felt pretty comfortable there. Yeah pretty nice there getting paid twice (plus upped my personal stakes to £17.5 a point as well) although forgot to follow the notes so will be starting that tomorrow so expect a reversal of fortunes for the next few weeks given that’s what normally happens when I start following something new.

        Concerned about the rain for Land although plenty of confidence in it at least given the price crash.

        1. Yep he cruised through that, never in much doubt really, picked up well when asked- as you assumed he would given how he went through that. haha- well I am due a losing run, it’s been a mad 7 weeks, can’t continue forever! So, treat with caution.
          Josh

          1. You’re telling me. Barring the Saturday I left I make that 5 out of 6 days of tipping where I got a double priced winner from 12 picks in total (plus 2 2nds). That’s bordering on absurd.

          2. Yeah £5 ew paid in excess of £560. Shame the favorite took a chunk out since he looked like a bad one.

        2. Brilliant Nick….excellent selections that you provided @ 10/1 & 12/1 backed last night….thank you….very well done

  2. Peter – I have to say I “poo-poo’d” dutching as an option for many years but slowly began to see the light.

    I personally would use it in bigger field handicaps and where there are enhanced place odds. I think that “mindset” is the most important element as it depends on what you are seeking from the specific bet(s).

    My “dutching” logic would be simple (a) I really fancy 1-2 horses in this race to win and/or place at decent double figure odds. (may be 3 horses in a 25+ runner race with odds to 5th/6th). (b) I am looking purely for a “net profit” on the race, no more no less.

    I think therefore the “mindset” of a dutch is unique, you are looking for a modicum of “net profit” to add to a steadily accumulating bank; if you get a big priced winner = great, if you get 2 good priced placed horses = good, the minimum requirement would imho be that 1 of the horses placing would “cover the overall bet”.

    I therefore think it is more suited to the punter looking at betting as more of an “investment/second income” that an “all in” win only lower priced odds punter.

    All about opinion and personal preference and betting aims for each individual of course.

    1. I do dutch based upon a value angle. Usually both runners need to give me 4/1+ total. Nothing wrong with dutching if you like more than one in a race.

      1. Thanks Martin
        The 4/1 make sense
        if you back two 11/10 for £10 level stakes you are in fact backing at 1/20
        bookies would take those bets all day

        what about 7/4 5/2 5/2 33/1 bar three when one of the 5/2s
        has multiple failures on the ground
        would 10 on the 7/4 and 8 the other 5/2 be a good bet

  3. Of the old great punters who’s methods do you admire most and why.

    Phil Bull, Alex Bird, Dodge McCartney and Eric Cummings were all brilliant in their time
    but would they do well today.

    Or are modern day guys like Patrick Veitch, JP McManus Tony Bloom Harry Findlay and Barney Curney
    superior in the present climate.

    What they all seem to have is unshakable faith in their methods
    with no fear and the ability to stay calm when the gods were against them.

    1. Peter,

      The one that readily comes to mind is Van Der Wheil method or The Flying Dutchman. If you have never heard of him try typing it into a google search.

      1. Thanks Mr T.
        Had a look and there seems to be plenty of info out there on him.

        Quite complex at times exactly how he reached his rating but form only valid
        up to class

        I had a trail at what I understood to be his method and it made BALLESTEROS a good bet
        but I think I need to do more research

  4. Ian your write up on dutching was excellent.
    will accept a small loss on occasions with say four runners in a race for you can guarantee the outsider you omit will win,on some competitive handicaps have had six runners so long that there is profit or close to it that is what it is all about.

    1. are e/w singles/ doubles when you oppose odds on favourites making their debuts
      with solid form horse 2nd favs even 3rd favs(2nd fav could also be a debutant) value or do the bookies make the 2nd favs shorter than they should be
      to stop the massive place odds
      they seem to go 2/7 the fav 3/1 2nd fav 10’s bar at the off in this sort of race
      if you take bog early doors you can get about a 111% book which in this type of race
      can be enough to keep you in the black
      any opinions

      1. Copy that…well done Nick;Josh and Mystic Meg – sorry Ian SP2A; whom ability to tip winners is surpassed only by his excellent visualisation of how a race will pan out; really helps me to understand different styles of riding / horses etc.

        Love the way David Allen did’nt force the horse and just let it run the first 6-7 furlongs on the bridle was brilliant! (Those of a my age will always associate Dave (David) Allen as probably the best comedian of all time!)

        Colin

        1. Yep, it is just his level, these C4s, soft, a trip.. his natural cruising speed this age is plenty to just sit behind any pace.. perfect for him. Had the conditions etc. It was a lovely ride. Always perfectly positioned and you hoped there was plenty underneath when he asked him- and there was.

          1. It got a bit squeaky bum time when Spencer went for the rail….but great tipping all round….even my draw %s gave it a green light.

            Tony Mc.

  5. Guys may I recommend getting blessed by a Buddhist monk at Angkor Wat. Does wonders for your betting. Picked up £1.5k since I’ve been back.

    1. Not bad going, hope that makes you get over your holiday blues haha. Well done, 3/3 since returning. Not bad. God I hope we don’t all hit the skids at the same time, that could be a dull few weeks.
      Josh
      p.s I assume now your giving points advice you are keeping tabs on results for us! Not a bad time to start in fairness, you must have raked in a shed load in recent months.

      1. I have kept tabs for awhile and normally put them up on FB to friends so thought I would add them here particularly when I don’t have time for write ups. Vast majority of my bets will be 1pt e/w given that’s the nature of my betting.

        In fairness its not all me. Main tipster has come alive the past 2 months and had a double priced winner yesterday and Connect today (and Van Gerwen just now)

  6. great all round site this and i think it teachs you value punting all punters are on the same wave length in terms of thinking value, and through this site winning is not as hard as you think

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