Champions Day… you won’t be getting much from me on this front… races I will just watch and enjoy. Flat Group races are not my thing, punting wise, and when you spend most of your time looking at handicaps, it does impact on what I would call my ‘class’ eyes- a completely different game really. There are many better punters/enthusiasts around with views on these types of races. In a few years time there will no doubt be some decent trends for the big handicap, but for now I will sit that out also. It’s rare to get two very short horses in a race like that, lightly raced, in form, ‘could be anything’ types. It may well be between them. A more general point.. the weather could play havoc.. rain is expected nearly everywhere and there will be some strong winds around. As I write you would be guessing as to the ground come race time, to a point. At some courses it will suit front runners (Catterick has a tail wind forecast), at most others it seems to be a cross wind or headwind, so who knows! Getting cover may be the order of the day. Not a day I will be going mad on, betting wise. Thankfully I can enjoy watching ‘class’ without the need to bet, most of the time! 🙂 (Chelt/Aintree the odd exception)
Your fancies are welcome!
4.35 Market Rasen
Kelvingrove – 1 point win – 9/1 (general) UP 4/1 – hmmm… poor run, never in it, never travelled..can see why he wears headgear..maybe he needs a proper test of stamina.
At the prices, without doubt, this one has the most fascinating/interesting profile and at these odds is well worth a go. He is unexposed over fences and this is in fact his handicap chase debut, having had three Novice chase runs. I wonder if we are about to see a different horse here, showing more of the ability that won him a C2 handicap hurdle at Haydock. He returned the last day after a 96 day break, with no headgear on, and unfancied at 16s. He ran as if he would come on a bundle for the run. The cheekpieces return here in what really is a poor race. While hurdles form cannot be a great guide to chasing, I can’t think any others in here could win a C2 handicap hurdle. He is a course winner and this is his first chase run going right handed- that may or may not make a difference but is at least something different from his three novice chase runs. Trainer and Jockey are 4/17,7p in handicap chases at the track, solid enough, and Jonjo seems to have had a revival in recent weeks/months. He appears to have a wider pool of owners than I can recall in the past- albeit that could just be nonsense, but many recent winners haven’t been wearing the green/gold from memory. JP does send more to JOB now, and maybe Jonjo has upped his game a bit as a result.
In any case, at the prices, he is the most interesting one. Hopefully they race him more prominently, tracking the likes of Ready Token and Sporting Boy. Clearly he needs to show more but he does have that ‘there should be more to come one day’ profile about him over fences. 9s allows me to be wrong, many many times 🙂
Of the rest… well if A1 then Ready Token is the most likely winner and a worthwhile fav. He will try and make all. But,his price seems about right/not overly generous. But he should run his race. None of the others really excited me- they all have plenty of questions for me. But, it is a moderate race, and if the selection or Longsdon’s don’t win, it is anyone’s I suppose- nothing would totally shock me. It has that sort of feel. Red Giant caught the eye to a point, but I am not sure the lack of headgear was a valid reason for his shocker the last day. That was, in effect, after back to back wins (he was the ‘winner’ of the void race at Perth) and he is unexposed as a chaser for this trainer, and over this trip. If that was just an off day he may be no forlorn hope…albeit he was rock bottom of HRB/Inform ratings, and not great in Geegeez either. Maybe the numbers are right, time will tell. CP return. Most of these have plenty of ‘summer form’ and look moderate enough.
6.45 Wolv- Eye Of The Storm (12/1<)
Trainer/jockey Combo – Live Test
3.25 MR – Blue Comet
4.25 FL- Clyne
Flat 2017: 60+ Day trainers
2.40 Ascot – Journey /The Black Princess (both any odds)
3.50 Ascot – Maverick Wave (any odds)
3.15 Ascot – Thunder Snow (14/1<)
Superb Free Report…. is yours….
Those of you who saw my email on Thursday (I’ll proof read the next one, that was littered with errors, awful) (you can read it HERE>>>) will have seen that Gavin Priestley has been giving away a quality freebie. It is a very good read. And his ‘Route 66’ idea is fascinating and something that gets the brain thinking…
You can grab your copy HERE>>> His is one of the handful of email lists you should be on/blogs you should read, if you don’t already. Always quality content and thankfully his main approach is now quite a bit different from what I do!! 🙂 (Matt B, then himself, the founding members of the ‘trainer track stats’ approach, albeit I have long since put my own twist on it/always been very different…but without them I wouldn’t be such an anorak on that front)
A bit of fun…
I think that is the lot for today.. oh.. I have had a nibble on LINGUISTIC in the 4.30 Ascot.. he hit my members’ trainer stats and I think you can make some sort of case, so he is a ‘notes’ horse in that post. We shall see if he can take me through the +100 points mark for those (+97.5 as I type) since the start of September. I am due a shocker of a run soon though,as those results are just a bit mad/too good to be true, at the moment.
GL with any bets,