Saturday…
Champions Day… you won’t be getting much from me on this front… races I will just watch and enjoy. Flat Group races are not my thing, punting wise, and when you spend most of your time looking at handicaps, it does impact on what I would call my ‘class’ eyes- a completely different game really. There are many better punters/enthusiasts around with views on these types of races. In a few years time there will no doubt be some decent trends for the big handicap, but for now I will sit that out also. It’s rare to get two very short horses in a race like that, lightly raced, in form, ‘could be anything’ types. It may well be between them. A more general point.. the weather could play havoc.. rain is expected nearly everywhere and there will be some strong winds around. As I write you would be guessing as to the ground come race time, to a point. At some courses it will suit front runners (Catterick has a tail wind forecast), at most others it seems to be a cross wind or headwind, so who knows! Getting cover may be the order of the day. Not a day I will be going mad on, betting wise. Thankfully I can enjoy watching ‘class’ without the need to bet, most of the time! 🙂 (Chelt/Aintree the odd exception)
Your fancies are welcome!
*
TIPS
4.35 Market Rasen
Kelvingrove – 1 point win – 9/1 (general) UP 4/1 – hmmm… poor run, never in it, never travelled..can see why he wears headgear..maybe he needs a proper test of stamina.
At the prices, without doubt, this one has the most fascinating/interesting profile and at these odds is well worth a go. He is unexposed over fences and this is in fact his handicap chase debut, having had three Novice chase runs. I wonder if we are about to see a different horse here, showing more of the ability that won him a C2 handicap hurdle at Haydock. He returned the last day after a 96 day break, with no headgear on, and unfancied at 16s. He ran as if he would come on a bundle for the run. The cheekpieces return here in what really is a poor race. While hurdles form cannot be a great guide to chasing, I can’t think any others in here could win a C2 handicap hurdle. He is a course winner and this is his first chase run going right handed- that may or may not make a difference but is at least something different from his three novice chase runs. Trainer and Jockey are 4/17,7p in handicap chases at the track, solid enough, and Jonjo seems to have had a revival in recent weeks/months. He appears to have a wider pool of owners than I can recall in the past- albeit that could just be nonsense, but many recent winners haven’t been wearing the green/gold from memory. JP does send more to JOB now, and maybe Jonjo has upped his game a bit as a result.
In any case, at the prices, he is the most interesting one. Hopefully they race him more prominently, tracking the likes of Ready Token and Sporting Boy. Clearly he needs to show more but he does have that ‘there should be more to come one day’ profile about him over fences. 9s allows me to be wrong, many many times 🙂
Of the rest… well if A1 then Ready Token is the most likely winner and a worthwhile fav. He will try and make all. But,his price seems about right/not overly generous. But he should run his race. None of the others really excited me- they all have plenty of questions for me. But, it is a moderate race, and if the selection or Longsdon’s don’t win, it is anyone’s I suppose- nothing would totally shock me. It has that sort of feel. Red Giant caught the eye to a point, but I am not sure the lack of headgear was a valid reason for his shocker the last day. That was, in effect, after back to back wins (he was the ‘winner’ of the void race at Perth) and he is unexposed as a chaser for this trainer, and over this trip. If that was just an off day he may be no forlorn hope…albeit he was rock bottom of HRB/Inform ratings, and not great in Geegeez either. Maybe the numbers are right, time will tell. CP return. Most of these have plenty of ‘summer form’ and look moderate enough.
Fingers crossed.
*
MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES
Perrett AW
6.45 Wolv- Eye Of The Storm (12/1<)
Trainer/jockey Combo – Live Test
3.25 MR – Blue Comet
4.25 FL- Clyne
Flat 2017: 60+ Day trainers
2.40 Ascot – Journey /The Black Princess (both any odds)
3.50 Ascot – Maverick Wave (any odds)
3.15 Ascot – Thunder Snow (14/1<)
*
Superb Free Report…. is yours….
Those of you who saw my email on Thursday (I’ll proof read the next one, that was littered with errors, awful) (you can read it HERE>>>) will have seen that Gavin Priestley has been giving away a quality freebie. It is a very good read. And his ‘Route 66’ idea is fascinating and something that gets the brain thinking…
You can grab your copy HERE>>> His is one of the handful of email lists you should be on/blogs you should read, if you don’t already. Always quality content and thankfully his main approach is now quite a bit different from what I do!! 🙂 (Matt B, then himself, the founding members of the ‘trainer track stats’ approach, albeit I have long since put my own twist on it/always been very different…but without them I wouldn’t be such an anorak on that front)
*
A bit of fun…
[poll id=”21″]
*
I think that is the lot for today.. oh.. I have had a nibble on LINGUISTIC in the 4.30 Ascot.. he hit my members’ trainer stats and I think you can make some sort of case, so he is a ‘notes’ horse in that post. We shall see if he can take me through the +100 points mark for those (+97.5 as I type) since the start of September. I am due a shocker of a run soon though,as those results are just a bit mad/too good to be true, at the moment.
GL with any bets,
Josh
21 Responses
I’m not a fan of this Health and Safety culture we live in but welfare of horses is paramount so you have to wonder how many meetings may survive tomorrow if winds are as anticipated.
Now I know London media have a tendency to call a breeze a hurricane but 40-50 mph would be at the edge of too much risk IMHO – I do wonder being the uber pragmatist what would stop them delaying 24 hours and running on Sunday??
Can’t see it being much fun jumping round Ffos Llas or Market Rasen in a cross wind either; I”d think a cross wind is more problematical for a jumper than head or tail wind!
The other paradox is that the wind dries tracks quicker than anything so if Ascot do race, cant see it being worse than soft/heavy in places and that makes things very interesting. Plenty with soft ground form but the headwind is the real “unknown”.
Josh you asked for thoughts…
as shared on my Elite mail earlier, I am keen at decent value on ALYSSA (20/1) dropped in trip in 2.40; Lightning Spear (25/1) in 3.15 and my old favourite Donjuan Triumphant in 2.00 but the 50/1 has morphed in to about half of that. Just a bit of loose change in a small e/w patent.
The 2 mile race intrigues me, Balding horse ticks every box except experience at trip; Gosden win would be great; Clever Cookie ticks all boxes but could just be too OTT so my longer shot pair would be Sheikhzayedroad, bit forgotten and has run OK on soft a few times and we know he stays and the equally well equipped Torcedor as mentioned on today;s free blog for the lovely Mrs Harrington!
Just hope it does not turn in to a lottery for the sake of racing and why didn’t they have Sunday contingency.????
I think Order of St George outclasses them in the 1.25; I am on Caravaggio each way in the 2.00 as I dont see the value of evens on Harry Angel over the stiff 6F at a track he has never won at. In the 2.40 Bateel should like some cut in the ground and if on form win. Ribchester outclasses them in the 3.15. I am on Cracksman at 4/1 in the 3.50 but fear Brametot. In the lucky last I like Dark Red in blinkers and Century Dream, who is progressive and has won his last 3 from 4. All weather permitting, who knows?
My attempt to go through the Ascot card:-
125 Dartmouth- ignore the run overseas and it’s too big and will cope
200 Caravaggio – a stamina sapping six is ideal
240 The Juliet Rose – value, more to come and the trainer a rare visitor
315 Persuasive – case made on her ability to handle deep going and stay on over CD
350 Brametot – looked targeted and the money today has confirmed that
430 Don’t be silly – well if Gabrial wins, I’ll be the only one to mention it! Handles the going, has a prime draw (?) and Frank steers over a CD where he has had many successes. You’re not persuaded, are you?
And he may not get a run; he may visit Windsor on the way….
Enjoy the day 🙂
I love Ascot my favourite track but novelty meetings as a punter leave me wanting better to have a mixed card than sakes for stakes sake
From my own past experience these big meeting are best left to fun bets.
And for a bit of fun DESERT ENCOUNTER e/w in the big one. The changeable conditions especially if it gets softer will catch a few out. The favourite CRACKSMAN is defiantly worth taking on as I think he needs further. But as with all these horses a case can be made for most of them. It would be an interesting to hear everyone’s pick on the race just for fun.
ITV 7 time again.
1:25 Ascot – Win Stradivarius @ Guaranteed Price (8/1) –
2:00 Ascot – Win Tasleet @ Guaranteed Price (14/1) –
2:40 Ascot – Win Hydrangea @ Guaranteed Price (6/1) –
3:15 Ascot – Win Persuasive @ Guaranteed Price (20/1) –
3:30 Catterick – Win Poet’s Society @ Guaranteed Price (20/1) –
3:50 Ascot – Win Poet’s Word @ Guaranteed Price (6/1) –
4:30 Ascot – Win Dark Red @ Guaranteed Price (20/1) –
normal staking £2 win under 6-1, 6-1 and above £1ew
i’ve had £2 ew on Duretto 1-25 @ 11-1 as well but that’s my lot for Ascot
cracking day ,nice profit. 2nd,2nd,1st,1st,u/p,2nd,3rd
Blimey, yep a cracking day indeed! Well done. Top work. I should have just followed you in really, next year! 🙂
4.35MR: Kelvingrove 9/1 looks like the one i’d want to be backing at the prices
Likes the track, stays well enough and Jonjo aiming many at the track in recent times with much success
Yep, agree..that looked a decent price given his profile (most exciting/interesting in this race by some way).. could be anything on this handicap c debut, including rather moderate, but well worth a stab. GL
Don’t forget to complete your surveys during any enforced wind-breaks today. Get yourselves a brew and a biscuit ready.
ha, i have seen that in my twitter inbox! Will get on it asap.
Little doubt your friend the Blogger will be having it large today Josh, short price favs through the card at Ascot today.
1.25– OOSG
2.00– Harry Angel
2.40– Left Hand e/w
3.15– Al Wukair + Thunder Snow….quite interesting in backing the latter, overpriced.
3.50– Brametot
4.30– Speculative Bid + Master The World e/w
Even though i have picked them i think the first two selections are only tentative picks….wouldn’t back them at all. Left Hand and maybe both in 3.15 will carry some money
When is the storm coming to Ascot? It is nice in Kent.
I’d just like to say how much I enjoy your e-mails Josh, out of all the crap I get sent you seem to be the most genuine and I’d just like to say thanks for last week’s tip on dark red. Wish there were more honest folk like you about. Best of luck with all your bets guys here is my bet for today. Thunderstorm 3.15 Kelvingrove 4.35 donjuan triumphant 2.00 linguistic 4.30 all picks I like from the posts above I’ll be sticking in an ew lucky 15 so I’ll take no credit if it makes a return and thank you all once again for your incitful input
Cheers Thomas, much appreciated, we (I) try our best here in RTP towers. You’ll always get blunt honesty even if the horses are running with three legs… with that said.. I am not sure Definitely Red was me?? Was it in an email, maybe posted by someone else.. in any case, you backed him, that’s the main thing haha.
GL today,
Josh
FFos Las has the high winds now and it is drying the ground, looking at ATR. Looks too windy to race unless the wind drops there. If they go I like Remiluc at 16/1 in the 4.25. The New One is not getting any younger.
West Wales is due to get the brunt of it over next 4-5 hours so hopefully common sense will prevail safety wise. Wind has really picked up in Staffordshire in past hour or so, would doubt they would be racing at Uttoxeter if it was racing today as occasional quite frightening gusts.
I spent a lot of summers in my late teens/early 20’s around Kent and East Sussex, beautiful part of the world, not sure if Hooe is your side of the border but got absolutely bladdered in a pub there one night drinking Fremlins Tusker – I think that’s what it was called!
Plenty of pubs here on the West Kent East Sussex border. Some have become gastro pubs but still lots of beers and craft ale here.