Members Daily Post: 17/10/17 (complete)

Section 1 / test zone / results summary/ NEW Update/ Bet of Day

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Leicester

3.00 –

Rene Mathis (all hncps) G3 14/1 UP

Custom Cut (micro TJC) H1 I1 8/1 UP

3.30 – Vibrant Chords (3yo+) 14,30  H3 I3 G3 9/4 UP

5.00- Zamperini (3yo+) H1 I3 G3 11/2 2nd 

5.30 – Squiggley (3yo+) 14,30 I1 G1 15/2 UP

 

SUMMER JUMPS

Worcester

2.40 – Twenty Eight Guns (hncp chase) I3  7/1 UP

4.40 –

Scoop The Pot (all hncps) ES H3 G1 7/4 WON 7/4>Evens

Bendomingo (all hncps) ES I3 9/1 UP

5.10 –

Drive On Locky (hncp hurdle) 20/1

Not At All (micro class) 7/1

 

JUMPS

Huntingdon

3.50 – As You Like (nov hncp chase) 14 11/1 UP 33/1 

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +  :  Minimum 10 winners, 25% or bigger win strike rate (angles in link above)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated 8th Oct)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated 8th Oct)

Test Zone:  | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>> C Appleby/York Ebor: Read HERE>>> |NTD Sept/Oct: Read HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>   Welcome VIDEO: Watch HERE>>> (long!) Brief’ Welcome Intro: Watch HERE>>>

Main Stats Guides (used for section 1 quals) : Summer Stats: Read HERE>>> | JUMPS 2017/18: Read HERE>>>>

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Test/trial : Bet of The Day…  (Flat: 7/75,27p, -6.1) (Jumps: 9/66, +23.5) (total: 17/148, +17.6)  ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (20/98, +82)

 

Bet of the Day Squiggley – 1 point win – 7/1

This one looks the most interesting runner to my eyes, at the prices. He is lightly enough raced (0/5,3p in turf handicaps), is fit, in form and does do something slightly different- a move back up 1f, at a track with a stiffer finish, and back on ground with cut in it. Candy is in very good form (4/10,6p last 14 days) and this one looks likely to run his race. Dane jumps back in the plate and he should be able to track the pace setters here and be in the perfect spot, if good enough. He stayed on well the last day and my hunch is that he will relish these conditions and this climb to the line. He is also a double top rated which caught the eye. So, he will do for me.

In truth I’d probably treat all my bet of the day/notes horses the same. I’m not really sure what differentiates them now really – the Bet of The Day has always tended to focus on the more unexposed/doing something different ones- but ‘picking’ just one isn’t going great and with those eyes on I should have put the Noseda winner up yesterday. Anyway, the main thing is section 2 is looking quite profitable, however you use the info – of course you may just read through it for interest.

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Notes… NONE.

 

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Re-cap…well the two pokes may still be running with the Easterby horse drifting out to 33/1, so no shock with how that one ran. Thankfully Jus Pires did the job t 8/1, just. Another for that tried and tested flat profile…  trainer stats pick section 1 > unexposed/lightly raced > ‘doing something different’ (step up in trip mainly, first turf run)> decent price (15/2,big enough to look over any concerns about the time off etc) (also two ratings pointers as supporting evidence). That ‘magic formula’ has found many similar winners this season and with any luck will continue to do so moving forward, inc over jumps. 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

NTD

2.50 Hunt – Ballypoint (m1/3/4/5

3.20 Hunt – Whiskey Moon (m1 22/1<)

3.50 Hunt – Southport (m3/4/6)

4.20 Hunt – Wicked Willy (m1/4/6)

4.10 Worc – Snobbery (m1/2)

4.40 Worc – Bendomingo (m2)

 

Jockey CD

3.00 Leic – Rene Mathis (any odds) 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

RESULTS: I will update the ‘advised strategies’ links above when back in Liverpool (the word docs saved to desktop) but in summary for the week, 9th-15th Oct…

 

Flat –

  • If backing all strategy quals systematically, inc multiple qualifiers: 1/16, 9p, -12 
  • Backing everything just once, regardless of how many strategies they hit (hitting at least one): 1/12,5p, -8 

 

Jumps 

  • All strategy quals inc multiple quals, excluding ‘treble rated’ : 4/23,7p, +25.5 (+34 if using BFSP for #1 winner) 
  • Backing any strategy quals just the once: 3/16, + 19 
  • Treble Rated (being ‘monitored’) : 0/3,0p 

 

Despite the poor end to the week it was still decent enough on the ‘advised strategy’ front, however you played them, if playing them systematically. With any luck you still managed to turn a profit and if you missed Beer Goggles then a small/more than manageable, loss. 

As per the post/videos HERE>>> if you do intend to back the advised strategies systematically I would recommend a 150 point bank minimum for the Jumps strategies, for the reasons explained. At £2 per point that is £300 you need to be willing to lose. Of course you need to trust the approach but that is the only way to be successful in the long run. 

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NEW! 

Horse Profiling…. Free Report and more…

As some of you may be aware I have always had a fascination with Horse Profiling.. .spotting patterns in certain horses that you hope they may repeat- trying to find ‘ideal conditions’. My good pal Ben Aitken is very good at this and I have dabbled before. It is an approach which is a labour of love and I simply haven’t had time, mental capacity or energy to spend the hours needed to find a few of these ‘profile horses’ to follow. And of course my main focus has been on making my core approach, as above, the best it can be. Less is more/specialisation is best, etc.

Then today, out of the blue, I received an email from a David Peat. He could arguably be described as the ‘god father’ of Horse Profiling and he first emailed me a few years back when he saw that I was developing my own ‘profiling approach’ (before I became more obsessed with the trainer stats approach as above)

For one reason or another David took some time off from ‘Profiling’ but has started to dabble again, with a focus on class 3 and above chasers.

He sent me his latest PDF. 57 pages of profiles, with a useful glossary looking at tracks configuration/speed/fence type.

 

  1. He said I could share this for free with my Members – that’s you! 
  2. I am going to add him into the Members’ Club and he is going to post in the comments as and when any horses look to have ‘ideal conditions’ 

 

I couldn’t believe he was happy to share all of this for free. But, in his words, it is a bit experimental for him and he wants to see how it goes this jumps season. So, we all get some bonus content, to use as we please. This is very much a bonus for you as a valued member.

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YOU CAN READ THIS PDF HERE>>>

 

(it is password protected…   password…. Profiles17  )

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What’s more, David has kindly offered to share his weekly updates. Madness.

YOU CAN READ THIS WEEK’S HERE>>>

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So, do what you please with that little lot- even if you just find it an interesting read. Clearly you can have too much information but I thought I may as well share it! You can flick through it and just wait for David to comment on various horses if you wish. Or ignore completely. But I do believe there is some value to this approach, certainly as another ‘way in’ or ‘starting point’ when looking at the horses more closely.

I am sure David will say hello at some point, once I have added him into the club!

Please do not share with any non members. We shall see how David gets on with this approach this year.

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Josh

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Message from David in the comments, and repeated below…

David Peat

“Good Morning
I have always had a interest in horse racing that I presume stems from sitting in front of the telly with my grandad, but it was not until reading Nick Mordin (Betting for a Living) that I found my calling Profiling Horses. In the early days these were written manually after hours of trawling through form books. Thankfully computer databases are now used and that makes life a lot easier. I have written on the subject of Horse Profiling since 2004 and did run a service for a number of years. Since 2012 all my thoughts were first published on a blog then since January this year on a free web-site that I run with a couple of like minded people and it was them that encouraged me back into profiling. This year I am dipping my toes back into the murky pool and trying to gauge if my methods still work and what people think about them – which is why I approached Josh and several other people. I have always loved to share information and I really don’t know what the future will bring but I hope you enjoy the ride.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

57 Responses

  1. It isnt a stat horse, but will you be having a go on Reckless Behaviour tomorrow Josh? upped in trip…maybe trainer form @ course would be a worry

    1. Hi Jack, yea he does look interesting, if the price is right. We backed him at Southwell and he did run as if wort h a go at this distance. Whether he is mature/developed enough to get this trip we shall see- I don’t think I am a big fan of big steps up in trip in quick succession. But, he should be able to travel as comfortably into this. He shouldn’t get tapped for toe and looked like a galloper the last day, so can see why they would bring him to a track like this. We should learn more about him. It is a positive that Harry S is on, he is the new Andrew Thornton for this yard I think, the go to jock. I’d have tried a more strongly run 2m4f at a track like this first, but that’s me. My hunch is that after this race we may say he looks like a horse ‘without a trip’ – 2m4f around Towcester will do the trick! … if he is 6s/7s I may be tempted for a £5 to find out.
      Josh

  2. Many thanks to David Peat for providing us with his work that I know is respected. It will be of much use to me as someone who spends time profiling horses to gain an advantage. If I can be of assistance to David in some way let me know?

    1. Thanks Martin, well.. much like the sterling work Warren does, and Jack has done above.. the more eyes tracking horses/posting when they run, form whatever source, is always useful! 🙂

        1. The tracker is filling up nicely.
          For today.
          Reckless behaviour 4.50 hunt
          Satchville flyer 7.45 Kemp
          Both Have Featured On Here Before So May Warrant A Closer Inspection.

  3. 3 selections for my test Unexposed NH Cappers with Distance Move system (one already mentioned by Jack above)

    3.40 Worcester – Overawed 6/1
    3.50 Huntington – Midnight Gem 17/2
    4.50 Huntington – Reckless Behaviour 11/2

    Running P/L
    -1 pt

    1. Hi James,
      I did read your comment on Sunday but was too drained to engage my brain and comment haha.
      I will have a look at it within HRB tomorrow and have a play around, see if I can spark any ideas in my own head – I will be interested to see how it gets on systematically, but without doubt should provide a useful set of starting points.
      Josh
      p.s and yes of course you can post up qualifiers etc!

      1. No worries josh sounded like you had a busy day so I don’t blame you for not answering my war and peace post 🙂 in any case I took your silence as confirmation!

        Think the system is really a starting point for further analysis but interested to see how it gets on its own merit. 3 selections tomorrow could be a batism of fire this week, but we’ll see

    2. think i will add in a further requirement to remove horses that have trip changes but have switched NH race type i.e changed from hurdles to chasing. No numbers to back this up, just think logically a trip change here isn’t that much of statement of doing something different. This would rule out Midnight Gem from tomorrows picks. I’ll count it anyway but going forward these horses switching race type wont be included.

      Also thinking of ruling out horses switching trainers and moving distance in their first start for the new trainer, as again logically the new trainer may be testing things out first up. Will play with the numbers to see how it impacts the ROI.

  4. Just had a read of David peats weekly update. Not had a look at the main pdf yet. That’s some serious insight into the horses in the pdf .
    How or why we are getting it free i don’t know. My tracker is going into overload. (Made alot easier entering horses now I have a new tablet paid for by the profit of rtp) ☺

    1. That sounds like a good use of winnings to me Warren 🙂 …
      Nothing suspicious with this free offering from what I can see! David will say hello tomorrow but I think he just wanted another exclusive avenue/forum with which to share his ideas, having taken a couple off from the ‘profiling’ game/having tweaked his approach.
      I am under no illusions that if it all goes well and there is deemed some value to the content, that if I was him I would look to monetise it say, simply as a recognition of the effort. But that isn’t our concern, and my view is we should enjoy the content for this season and see if it adds to our experience. He has said nothing to that effect and very much the driver is a enthusiast with a specialism/focus who simply wants to share his thoughts- I suspect he knew I would be receptive! 🙂
      Josh

  5. Good Morning
    I have always had a interest in horse racing that I presume stems from sitting in front of the telly with my grandad, but it was not until reading Nick Mordin (Betting for a Living) that I found my calling Profiling Horses. In the early days these were written manually after hours of trawling through form books. Thankfully computer databases are now used and that makes life a lot easier. I have written on the subject of Horse Profiling since 2004 and did run a service for a number of years. Since 2012 all my thoughts were first published on a blog then since January this year on a free web-site that I run with a couple of like minded people and it was them that encouraged me back into profiling. This year I am dipping my toes back into the murky pool and trying to gauge if my methods still work and what people think about them – which is why I approached Josh and several other people. I have always loved to share information and I really don’t know what the future will bring but I hope you enjoy the ride.

        1. Ah I thought so. The style of your notes reminded me of your blog you used to have and I recalled you lived in France. I was thinking of the right person. 🙂 Can’t keep a good man down.
          Look forward to your input.

    1. Hi David,

      Have just spent some time reading through the pdf. Thanks very much for the effort you have put in and for sharing it. It is an epic read and highly informative whatever the horses decide to do over the next few months.

      Cheers

      Ben

      1. I started off with attheraces, you simply track the horse, and they will email you around 6 the night before they run..

        I also use Racing Post as i subscribe to that….they will email you when horse is entered and declared as well.

        Both you can keep notes on the horses…sometimes i find one will not have the horse on their system yet, but normally the other will have…

        Not really sure there is a leading “tracker” out there, as they all do the same thing!?

        1. Yep, you’ve got Sporting Life as well, I’m not sure if the tracker is free with Geegeez Gold for free registered users, a feeling it might be, but not 100%. All of them usually have some kind of email option.

          1. HorseRaceBase (always) deserve a mention. Email overnight (though also listed from early evening on website in a list for next day’s racing) with the added plus historical data available under horse in My Horse Management to see how each has performed since entered into the tracker.

          2. Geegeez tracker is for members only but is a good tool. Matt B needs the money for Guinness!

    1. I use two.
      Sporting life tracker but it’s limited to 100 entries and I also have started to use the geegeez tracker. Even if you dont have the paid service the tracker is free and great to use. Both will give you email notifications around 7pm the night before of the horses running.

      1. Timeform have a free one as well with some space for notes and a choice of notification times and how you receive update

  6. lot of time and work gone into that pdf from the looks of it, many thanks to David and I look forward to seeing how it gets on

    1. Ha cheers Paul, it does usually jinx them it seems! I should just call everything ‘notes’, they seem to be working just fine! His price looked a tad big against that profile so we shall see. GL

      1. On the 3.30 race, i have watched Gracious John for quite some time…His AW form is very decent, and he has been highly tried a few times this year. His mark continues to drop, and he continues to be backed (not today so far) i have to admit i think it might be worth waiting for him to return to the AW….he is 3 wins and 3 places from his 10 starts there and off lofty marks compared to today. He does have nice enough form on the turf, and does win on it, so he isn’t one to completely rule out there either….Today though, he will be challenged early on from the front (he tends to race prominent) and i am not sure today will be the race for him…Just Glamorous runs like a scalded cat and Soie L’eau is a front runner most of the time too….This might well set it up for one racing behind them….Not a race to bet in for me…Your selection Vibrant Chords is clearly the interesting one, but 14 runs and 2 wins and always prominent in the market i can let him run…

        1. Yep, I let most/all qualifiers 3/1 and shorter run, and then anguish over any in the 7/2>11/2 range! – Vibrant Chords looks short enough/the right price, given that profile- in part probably 1 point/ 1/2/2 points shorter because of the jockey. As per free post I thought Just Glamorous could get out and stay out again- had a nibble at 6s to find out- mark may be too high in a handicap but second run after the wind op and in theory there could be plenty more still to come. We shall see. I didn’t think the other possible pay pushers would be able to live with him but I may have that wrong.

          1. Ha, he did indeed, sweeping on my 6/1>10/1 poke who I thought may just hang on..just out-stayed him up the hill I think. Good little race, 10/1 on the winner! Best try and forget about that asap haha.

        2. This is a rare chance for Taexali, as he has not had these, his optimum conditions (stiff track, easy going at 5f, for some while. He doesn’t look up to the grade at first glance but I expect a bold show with his trainer an unusual visitor here from Ireland.

          1. I seem to recall a simple system that Matt wrote about on Geegeez about it being profitable to back any Irish runner that had its last run in Ireland so Taexali fits that profile. Unless it was jumps only……
            Hugh

          2. It was any code as I remember it, but I wasn’t using it for this runner as Pat Shanahan regularly runs horses in the UK, especially in Scotland, and his team needs treating as a ‘one-off’.

  7. Todays racing looks better than yesterday. My early thoughts are – 3.30 Lei, Just Glamorous, won well LTO, in its past ran in the Abbaye, had breathing issues but has had an op to sort its larynx, running in handicaps, 8/1 ok. 4.50 Hun, Dawn Missile, formerly trained by Willie Haggas, well handicapped at 94, now on better ground that it will prefer, 9/1.

  8. yes another great addition to this great site ! many thanks david for that , and you josh !
    think i will be following to small stakes of £2 when horse have optimum conditions just to see how it pans out .

  9. Hollie Doyle has some interesting rides today, most of them at double-figure prices. After a good priced winner on Sunday, no surprise to see her riding another winner at either Leicester or Kempton tonight where Straight Ash (6.45) and Sir Jack (8.45) are the best for EW prices.
    Straight Ash won last time over the undulating course of Chepstow and so this extra furlong should be very suitable for this son of Zebedee.
    Sir Jack last time ran in a valuable Class 3 race and so this is a big drop back in quality and will again be tried over 2 furlongs further. The concern is that the gelding will not act on the surface and has not, in the past, run well here so that part is the gamble

  10. One from my NH tracker running today. Not a price today but expected to go up the grades, 5.20 Hun, Carlos Du Fruitier.

    1. Martin, in that race, Jonjos would have to be quite interesting! The horse that beat him didnt run badly on his first run under rules…Special Ted a supreme horse, would dampen the form slightly, but Lesley Dawn would brighten it up a little. Probably further evidence needed….Jonjo doesnt have the worst record with bumpers..and is 3 from 8 at the track with 3 places as well so a nice record indeed.

      1. I know that the Pauling stable rate the horse I mention above and expect it to step in class of race. We shall see how he goes today.

        1. No doubt Martin, he was quite highly tried. Frozen Flame is very weak in the market considering the stable form and also their 5 yr bumper record at the track…..11/4 w/o the favourite isn’t a terrible bet IMO. I suppose some would prefer doing a forecast!

          I don’t normally back bumpers myself, but might be tempted to nibble a bit of the 11/4 as my only bet today

          1. In hindsight, i got decent enough value on Frozen Flame…probably lucky for his winner earlier…Also, noticing stupidity in thinking it was a bumper! last race of the day + that!

            Didnt catch finish of race…stream froze…..seems to have gone badly wrong as from what i could see he was travelling ok!

  11. 3.30 Leicester
    PIPERS NOTE
    Back in distance, GS and quick enough
    Usual pilot
    Ran 3 days ago!
    Competitive with Jumira Bridge, Soie D’Leau in the field
    Price too big 25/1 WHill

  12. I have known David almost 10 yrs subscribing to his methods when they were private subscriptions and bought his ebooks on this subject the man is a diamond I was so disappointed when he took a sabbatical and contacted him only yesterday to see if he was considering a restart.

    I have been involved in racing for many years and have never met a more honest and decent man in over 40 years as a punter an tipster, the time and effort put into his methods are outstanding to say the least

    Welshman

  13. After dropping the Longsdon September record in last month , i thought i would throw in another observation which came to my attention maybe it will be of interest …

    N Richards October record for last 4 years 18% 29% 26% 10% ,last years lower figure needs closer inspection as 8 of his 21st oct horses finished 2nd … No winners so far this month but his 4 runs have finished 2323 ….. Perhaps the winners are about to appear ??

    1. Why do you think Nicky Richards has not been as successful as his father as a trainer? The same can obviously be said for David Pipe. It is more competitive now than back in the day. Is that just it?

    2. Interesting Joners, on checking Richards next few runners, i can’t imagine it will be Wot A Shot! He used to be with my local trainer Colin McBratneym safe to say Nicky has done well to win with him at all!

      He has a very profitable look to him in general, only his hurdles in the last 5 seasons represent a loss!

  14. WTA Tennis at Luxembourg – One particular match of interest is the Andrea Petkoic V Petra Martic match later this afternoon. Martic leads the head to head 3-0 all three matches have gone to three sets with Petkovic winning the first set in all three. Martic currently priced at 6-5 Petkovic 4-6 both are perfectly capable on indoor hard court surface, I do believe Martic’s slice backhand will make life awkward for Petkovic as she will have to put her own pace on the ball. Possibly an ideal match to trade but overs also looks decent at 11-10 for over 22 games considering all past meetings have covered this comfortably. The only thing that tempers my enthusiasm for this is Martic’s lack of recent competitive tennis. Ideal scenario Petkovic takes first set then Martic comes back to win in three……..Now watch as Petkovic wins 6-0 6-0!

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