Members Daily Post: 16/10/17 (complete)

Section 1, Notes, test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Yarmouth

3.40 – Bizet (all hncps + micro age) 14/1 UP

 

Musselburgh

2.20 –

Al Hawraa (all hncps, 3yo+ + micro age) 4/1 UP

Royal Cosmic (micro class) H3 I3 G1 7/4 WON  7/4>13/8 

2.50 –

Robero (all hncps) ES G3 25/1 3rd 20/1 

Lualiwa (all hncps, 3yo+ + micro age)  H3 I3 G3 6/1 UP

3.50 –

Laughton (all hncps,3yo+ + micro age)  I3  13/2 UP

Fast Act (all hncps, 3yo+) 14/1 UP

Ballesteros (micro class) H1 I1 G1 4/1 3rd 

420 –

Fine Example (all hncps, 3yo+ + micro age) 6/1 UP

Gabrial The Tiger (micro class) H1 I1 G1 6/4 3rd

4.55 –

Tagur (all hncps, 3yo+ + micro age) H3 I3 11/2 UP

Tafteesh (all hncps) ES G3 14/1 Up 33/1

Garter (micro class) 14/1 UP 12/1

5.25 – La Bacouetteuse (micro dist) 10/1 UP

 

Windsor

2.30 – Jus Pires (micro hncp debut) H3 I3 15/2 WON 15/2>8/1

3.30 – Killay (3yo+) 14 H3 G1  3/1 UP

4.30 – Abiento (all hncps) G3  17/2 UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +  :  Minimum 10 winners, 25% or bigger win strike rate (angles in link above)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated 8th Oct)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated 8th Oct)

Test Zone:  | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>> C Appleby/York Ebor: Read HERE>>> |NTD Sept/Oct: Read HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>   Welcome VIDEO: Watch HERE>>> (long!) Brief’ Welcome Intro: Watch HERE>>>

Main Stats Guides (used for section 1 quals) : Summer Stats: Read HERE>>> | JUMPS 2017/18: Read HERE>>>>

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Test/trial : Bet of The Day…  (Flat: 7/75,27p, -6.1) (Jumps: 9/66, +23.5) (total: 17/148, +17.6)  ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (19/95, +76)

NOTES

This feels like one of those mediocre days, given how low class the racing is and how late we are into the season. There are three at prices that look worthy of some support to me. The most likely big priced winners could be in the 4.55. Muss.. ‘could’…

Tafteesh… UP at those odds was worth some support. He isn’t one I am overly bullish on but  he could bolt up. The positives… well for me all hope rests on the easier surface, good to soft/soft in places. He won his maiden in similar ground and since then has pretty much raced on GF/AW. He has come down 20lb since Mick E got hold of him and one day he will find the key. HIs best run for connections was a few starts ago over 6f in soft at Thirsk. This 7 should suit better and he could run his race. The downside is that Mick looks woefully out of form. However, when looking through, most of his recent runners have been 16/1,25/1+, he hasn’t had many run under 8/1 say and certainly no shorties. Cam Hardy doesn’t look to be riding with much confidence either, and the trainer/jockey combo stats wouldn’t give you much hope… 2/68 in handicaps. But, he could be riding due to the low weight, rather than a conscious thought of ‘we won’t get a more regular/successful rider because the horse doesn’t have a chance’, if that makes sense. He has an ES, a G3 and was a decent price- I had to have something on to find out. You would want to see him supported, any drift come the off and I won’t be expectant.

Garter… UP at 14/1, in the same race, I had to have a nibble also. This is only his second handicap run on turf, his third run for Fahey and third run after a break. Hamilton keeps the ride from LTO which may or may not be significant. He isn’t doing much different in terms of a class move or distance move but does return to the turf. That may well be a negative and this one could just prefer the AW, but that isn’t conclusive yet. At that price, given that lightly raced profile on grass etc, I had to have a small nibble.

Jus Pires… WON 15/2>8/1  one makes handicap debut and steps up in trip. The yard is very shrewd and 15/2 looked worth a go, just in case. It is an unusual jockey booking but he has placed on a runner from only two rides. I would want to see some market support in what looks a competitive race. I have a few niggles… he won LTO in his maiden so this isn’t a plot as such…and in that context the break concerns me. It suggests there has been a problem. But his price, with his profile, has just lured me in. Unexposed, doing something different, decent price.

I won’t be surprised if my notes total is +73 after today, but at the same time I wouldn’t fall off my seat if one of these went in.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Jockey CD

4.00 W – Miss Liguria (any odds)

4.55 M – Luck Violet (any odds)

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

I will get the advised strategy results updated soon.

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

18 Responses

  1. Golf, start of the final day Molinari was in contention lying in second place but that turned out to be the only high of the day.
    Tomorrow bets will on by noon.

    1. He did finish weakly. I said in Yesterdays post I feared Tyrrell Hatton after last week and am kicking myself now for not taking the 7/2. Ross Fisher also hot going into this week.

  2. Orphelia is heading through so its batten down the hatches and wait it out,might be best options for racing today too,Fastnet Spin might be an appropriate one today.

  3. Monday is not a good day for racing it seems. I do not have much. In the 3.10 Yar Daphne needs to win this to stp up into better races. You can get 4/1.

    Anyone got anything ante post for the Cheltenham Festival? I have made my bookings for tickets and hotel and so only need to find some winners now. I will start us off with Tiger Roll in the World Hurdle and Cause of Causes in the Cross Country.

    Good luck.

    1. I’m sorry gents, talk of the Cheltenham Festival before February is henceforth banned on this blog!! 🙂 Or, at least wait until January! Maybe I’ll accept it then. Nothing irritates me more in this great jumping game of ours than the early/premature obsession with the Festival. (oh and people who ‘boooom’ anything under about 12/1, but that’s a personal thing)

      In part that is because how my brain works, given I focus on handicaps, importance of suitability to race conditions (Chelt ‘could be’ soft), unexposed profiles, importance of tactics, front runners, field size, recent trainer form etc. Such talk now is completely alien to me.

      Although you may have a superb AP record in which case maybe I should take note 🙂

      And so is betting on anything there at this time in the season.. without non runner no bet?? Is that risk really built into prices? Or are they non runner no bet already? I don’t see the attraction… isn’t all the value gone these days, with many a horse being similar prices that week anyway… with so any unknowns I just don’t ‘get it’- but aware I am in the minority on that one.

      I mean clearly you can talk about what you wish on these pages 🙂 But Festival talk before Jan.. come on!

      Josh

      1. sorry josh totally disagree with you on this one life is all about Cheltenham and the road to Cheltenham started on Saturday its the one meeting that I live for and I am quite good at it its ok looking for a big price winner in handicaps but they are very hard to come by if you look at the average price of winners flat and national hunt it is between 3-1 and 8-1 early Cheltenham ew yankee melon 16-1 the arkle. finians Oscar jlt nov 10-1. cilaos emery champion hrd 25-1 willougby court rsa chase 16-1

        1. well that’s why this game is so fun, all about opinions. We will agree to disagree on that one! Don’t get me wrong, it is one of the most exciting racing weeks of the year (along with Aintree 🙂 ), and I am more excited than anyone as it approaches.. but I can’t stand that ‘road to Cheltenham’ idea.

          It is to do with how I approach the game and my mind is not suited to such a build up etc- and stems from fact I am quite happy to just sit and watch most of the non-handicaps/graded races, with the odd exception. We have an ok record during Festival week on these pages, esp in the handicaps 🙂 But given I use trends/stats/profiling etc- and would be lost without them- and as such my brain can’t logically then approach that meeting another way!

          My NH brain is very much week to week, with plenty of big races etc to get stuck into. But, each to their own. If that’s what gives you the buzz then dive right in
          Josh

        2. Cilaos Emery is likely to go over fences, but i know its always possible he wont take to them and be reverting back to hurdles….risky tho!

    1. I heard that he has had an op and they were thinking about going over hurdles with him this season. Pure speculation likely.

          1. Haha, ah, the King George is fine! 🙂
            (obviously feel free to talk as much about the Festival as you wish! I just won’t be joining in but will flick through any comments for interest, no doubt for every one of me there are 5 who can’t get enough of it)
            Josh

  4. A couple of interesting ones from trainer comments

    17:00 WINDSOR Calm Charm 28/1
    Chris Wall: She’s a half-sister to Mix And Mingle and takes after her dam, who was a big mare and won a maiden in the autumn of her three-year-old career. That’s the aim with this filly as well as she’s ready to start off over 1m2f very soon and could have a profitable backend to the year. She looks nice and is starting to show a lot at home. – 30/08/17

    15:10 YARMOUTH Pacharana 16/1
    Cumani: She made really good progress last year when winning four in a row and has won two of her six races this year to take her tally to six. I don’t think there’s much more improvement to come, if any, but she’s crept up the handicap very slowly this year – her last win at Brighton this month saw her go up just 3lb and she’s a very tough filly, so she could definitely win again before heading to the paddocks at the end of the year. She runs at Bath on Wednesday. – 27/07/2017

    1. Thanks Andy, will be interesting to see how they go. The thoughts of trainers are always interesting, esp more generic comments as to a horse’s future, rather than say their chance in said race. Some useful context there.
      Josh

  5. just wondered joseph if you would be kind enough to explain alittle about the 4 horses in your yankee for cheltenham, why uou fancy them

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