An easy all the way 5/1 winner to close the play on Friday’s free post.. luckily Harry read the script 🙂 Moving on…
None. I dont have the clearest of heads this morning and don’t have the time to do the chases justice. I’ll be hoping some members/micro horses run well… Ballykan/Marcilhac. Rock The Kasbah seems well fancied also for the Saturday TJC pair below, but he is looking short enough now in a race like that, to my eyes anyway. GL if you back anything.
I haven’t had time to look at the big Newmarket handicap with stats/trends and instead will rely on a guest preview/tips from SP2A, as below.
Flat 2017: 60+ day trainers
4.50 Newm – Gymnaste (any odds)
4.30 Cork – Always Dancing (any)
SAT Trainer/jockey combos
4.45 Chep – Rock The Kasbah (14/1<)
Who Dares Wins – 1 point each way @ 10/1
Shrewd – 1 point each way @ 20/1
Byron Flyer – 1/2 point each way @ 25/1 (PP) @ 20/1 generally
Swashbuckle – 1/2 point each way @ 40/1 (WH + Lads)
(see notes below re-: Euchen Glen and First Mohican)
(Prices correct at 3.00pm on Friday 13th October – extensive enhanced odds see bottom of mail)
A marathon Trip of 2 Miles and 2 Furlongs, where they start in one County and finish in another and unique as the Draw; can be a very big factor as the track is basically the shape of a straightened off “7”; a long straight and then a right hand sharp bend in to another straight, and if you are drawn wide, you have 2 early choices, sit in behind as they tend to run 2-3 abreast to save yards, or make an early bold run for the rail, using vital energy, but hopeful of avoiding the inevitable carnage, when the race really unfolds in the final 1/2 mile and in to the dip and up the hill, and the dip is vital as you want to be accelerating in to and up it, and not too far out and not too late as you hit the rising ground.
We are looking for proven stamina over at least 2 miles, preferably more; Course form if possible; Autumn form; a nice handicap mark and as the Going is not a factor being basically “Good” a horse with prominent running style but the ability; to change gear as it reaches the business end of the race, oh, and there are only 36 to consider, so easy (not!) I narrowed the 36 down to about half that number in an hour, and in the next hour got down to 8 and finally 6, from which I will give you 4 SELECTIONS and a couple who can have a bit of loose change on, or use as reserves in case of a non runner
I reluctantly left out the likes of Endless Acres (31); Snow Falcon (29); Mirsaale (23) and Star Rider (36) and whilst that could come back to bite me, I feel a real handicap with of them Endless Acres and Mirsaale the most feared. Will give very honourable mentions to two at decent odds who made the final 8 and they are DUKE STREET and AURORA GRAY.
My final 6 look like this is preference order-:
No 10 WHO DARES WINS – won the trial in impressive style, gets a nice draw in stall 8; looks progressive and can’t see it not being in contention from that draw with just a 4lbs penalty and with a very impressive young Jock up the 10/1 is value.
No 2 SHREWD – 3rd in the Trial and met considerable interference before staying on, may be a tad well handicapped as a result and Trainer is making his name in this type of race, very decent 7lbs Claimer takes 7lbs off and another well drawn in stall 9, and has won on this Course if not over this distance.
No 14 BYRON FLYER – drawn 4 so will find a nice slot; the further they go surely the stronger and will stay on with luck in running, the Trainer is bang in form, as is the jockey, who seems to have “kicked on” this season and the prominent runstyle should have him in an ideal tactical position throughout.
No 22 SWASHBUCKLE – drawn in 2 and another who can take advantage of low draw. Has form on this Track and elsewhere over the Distance, not particularly well handicapped but the nagging view it can run a big race here at nice odds.
The other pair I’d have a small dabble on are No 19 Euchen Glen, Goldie and Mulhearn always a danger in these big field races and could come late from stall 20 and nice handicap mark and the King second string who ran a great race in this last year No 7 FIRST MOHICAN who is a very juicy 50/1, and well drawn and in Hollie Doyle an outstanding rider.
So how to stake…William Hill and SkyBet go 1/5th the odds to EIGHTH PLACE!!!!!!
Paddy Power go 1/5th the odds to SEVENTH PLACE and Bet 365 got 1/4 the odds to 6th
so the simple message is USE ONE OF THOSE if you can!. We will settle to 6th place 1/5th the odds.
Back to confirm ‘tipping’ plans at some point, prob Sat morning.