Free Daily Post: 07/10/17 (complete)

Challenge Cup stats/trends/shortlist/summary, + micros

TIPS (3m+ chases) none

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MICRO SYSTEMS/QUALIFIERS 

Flat 2017: 60+ day trainers

2.40 Newm – Arabian Hope (14/1<)

2.35 Lim – Tony The Gent (any odds)

3.45 Lim – Marvellous Ways (25/1< best)

 

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BIG RACE STATS/TRENDS/SHORTLIST

3.35 Ascot: The Challenge Cup

10/10 : 0-3 handicap wins (4+, 0/59,8p)

10/10: 0-1 wins at distance (2+, 0/101,15p)

9/9: (of those with UK form) last win in C2+ (0/50,7 did not)

Just using those three stats, and including and horses with form abroad/whose last win was abroad (any class), leaves…

Shortlist: Flaming SpearUP / Firmament UP/ Raising Sand 3rd 16/1 / Lord Glitters 2nd 20/1  / Straight Right  UP

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Those that were 11th lower in the weights, but excluding bottom weights, are 0/78,11p… that would knock off Lord Glitters / Straight Right

Those that ran over 8f+ last time out are 0/31,6p.. smaller numbers.. but that ‘does for’ Flaming Spear.

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Which I think leaves two horses top and tailing the card… Firmament (top/joint weights are 0/11,0p,but small sample) + Raising Sands (no real negatives for him, stats wise!)

 

Of Interest… I have just looked at the race ‘normally’ and the one striking element is the complete lack of pace, on paper at least… Mjjack... well he looks like he might get his own way up front, or in any case be able to travel comfortably right up there.. a repeat of his last two runs must put him there and Clifford Lee is decent. Just on pace I may have to throw £5 at him! (well, I will be) 🙂

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SUMMARY… Well after some further thought and for interest, my two main fancies are Mjjack and Raising Sand.. I have had a smaller nibble on Johnny Barnes who hits my stats in the Members’ post, whose trainer is in red hot form, and a repeat of his run two starts back should put him in the mix. He ran well enough the last day having blown the start and over 6f. At 14s, I found it hard to fully dismiss him even though he falls down on the odd race stat. I have talked myself out of the others above but we know what happens now! At least there are no 33/1+ shots lurking there so there won’t be too much use of the Opus Dei equipment if one sluices home! 

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That’s the lot for today, we have the Munster National tomorrow… i’l have a look at some stats/trends but that Arkwrist rocks up… 6/1 may be fair.. he will need to jump better but that Kerry National is already working out well. IF he is over that last race and if can avoid taking too many fences home with him, he may make that look a big price. I know at 6s it is highly likely i’ll pay to find out!

Josh

 

UPDATE: ah a decent race at Ascot.. I nearly did have that Opus Dei equipment out as the Omeara horse flashed home at 20s… a decent second and third at big prices from that ‘shortlist’ of 5. A few races without finding the winner but that was always going to happen given that run we had. But, that was exciting…thought Raising Sands may stay there for a moment. Not to be. Most of those will reappear in the Balmoral Handicap no doubt in a few weeks, who knows what order they will finish in. I did get the pace wrong- they went harder than I thought and Mjjack couldn’t lead. Still ran well, chinned for 5th. 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

15 Responses

  1. I am now off to Vietnam and Cambodia for a couple of weeks. No time for write ups unless I manage to find some at the airport today but I like the following:
    Mjjack Ascot 15:35 1pt e/w
    Kassia Newmarket 14:05 1pt e/w

    I have also thrown £5ew on Breanski in the 17:05 at Redcar who is clearly well treated but I have had one or two doubts about him.

      1. Thanks mate. I will leave it to you to sort out the winners for the next couple of weeks. Got no less than three jumps books to get through so won’t be totally disengaged from the nags.

        1. some light holiday reading.. decided I don’t have the time/capacity in my head,for all these jumpers to follow books this year haha, so I hope you’ll keep us up to speed!! 🙂 We are due a slump, which may happen as you are away, which would be good timing for you!

          1. I don’t treat them anywhere as close to bibles like I may have done a couple of years ago and rarely back anything blind but any extra bit of knowledge helps so hopefully will find a few gems in there.

    1. Hi Nick, have a great time. If you get to Hanoi I can recommend the street food tours, can’t find the link to the one I took but it was led by an Australian. Without a guide I think it would have been just too intimidating.

    2. Kassia may be not quite as eye catchingly unlucky as Lord Glitters for Josh; but unlucky nontheless, played up in stalls and missed break, played catch up and finished best but never getting there, could be interesting if out again b4 end of season on softish Going as a definite Autumn girl – so in tracker.

      No quibbles with winner of 3.35 and EJ-H having a great season but they finish strung out like a NH race and can’t help thinking a few pulled near the furlong pole with an eye on the Brittania in a few weeks time; Johnny Barnes best of my nibbles in 5th but 2 picks ran desperately disappointingly.

      Feels like the Flat is fizzling out and really in to crossover mode now so with a few exceptions NH here we come yippee!

  2. Having identified a few in the 3.35 at Ascot (in a mail sent out to those having the Special Offer) yesterday afternoon and a couple nicely handicapped for the Daily tips (sent at the crack of dawn this morning); I have subsequently found one that was “off my radar” for some reason and have just spotted in the tracker that I use, so will gladly share with everyone.

    Ascot 4.45 if running up to normal Course form and perked up by cheek-pieces Willytheconquerer could be some each way value for a bit of shrapnel at about 10/1; and one of a few today, whose prices hide the fact their marks are very interesting eased a bit in class.

    Good Luck all.

    1. I heard a good word for Willytheconqueror yesterday and am on at 11/1. Mjjack has been put up in a number of places that I have seen . I think if Mojito is to go forward into group class he has to put this lot away. We shall see.

      What about the 3.20 Red? There are a lot of runners but Darkanna seems to stand out on form. Tricky races these with plenty of improvers. Finally Bletchley has some good form in the book and at 14/1 in the 4.10 As may go well.

      1. Martin, I agree about Darkanna but those 2yo races are a minefield, especially at this stage of the season when some can be “over the top” and others can improve tons. Darkanna has the form but comes out very quickly. With his record in this type of race you have to look at what else Fahey has so I have put Maybride and Crownthorpe in my placepot as a crafty tactic hoping the fav gets turned over!

  3. Im off to Ascot today ……. maybe i will sit n wait for the Lucky last then Ian .
    Thanks for popping that up 🙂

    1. Good Luck, am told there is a strong headwind, so Going should be “bob on” and may suit my main 2 picks in 3.35 as both hold up types who get the trip and a bit further!

      1. One of them, as above, will definitely try to make all Ian! If we are talking about the same horse that is, would fall of my seat if they didn’t try and lead… should get an easy time of it.. but you have both tactical angles covered!

        1. Mj will try to run from the front as you have indicated I am 100% sure, the headwind might just make that a more difficult job though and hopefully as you say angles covered.

          At Royal Ascot I thipped a pair who both ran very prominently in big field races on the straight and won, espaecially Zhui Feng who kept finding more, Out Do was more I think down to some astute riding and a hunch I had with the draw (not all eggs in 1 basket).

          This field is considerably smaller and some strange results yesterday in terms of trying to analyse draw with Shady McCoy coming from 17 to finish right over on far side an eye opener and they always seemed to want to go middle far side but plenty of scope here and can’t really be any draw excuses imho.

          I would imagine if headwind persists they might go arrow shaped in with case MJ is perfectly drawn but could be a sitting duck to a finisher…intriguing!

          Good Luck

  4. On the football front we failed with the Wales lay yesterday but easily landed the Macedonia handicap bet. So a small loss. Onto Saturday. Cyprus are improving under new management and Greece are getting worse. Therefore we can lay Greece and take a bit of 7/1 Cyprus for the win. Oxford thrashed Peterborough away last week and are at home to AFC Wimbledon today, who get the odd win but generally struggle. Therefore we can take the 6/5.

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