TIPS – (3m+ chases) none
Flat 2017: 60+ day trainers
2.40 Newm – Arabian Hope (14/1<)
2.35 Lim – Tony The Gent (any odds)
3.45 Lim – Marvellous Ways (25/1< best)
BIG RACE STATS/TRENDS/SHORTLIST
3.35 Ascot: The Challenge Cup
10/10 : 0-3 handicap wins (4+, 0/59,8p)
10/10: 0-1 wins at distance (2+, 0/101,15p)
9/9: (of those with UK form) last win in C2+ (0/50,7 did not)
Just using those three stats, and including and horses with form abroad/whose last win was abroad (any class), leaves…
Shortlist: Flaming SpearUP / Firmament UP/ Raising Sand 3rd 16/1 / Lord Glitters 2nd 20/1 / Straight Right UP
Those that were 11th lower in the weights, but excluding bottom weights, are 0/78,11p… that would knock off Lord Glitters / Straight Right
Those that ran over 8f+ last time out are 0/31,6p.. smaller numbers.. but that ‘does for’ Flaming Spear.
Which I think leaves two horses top and tailing the card… Firmament (top/joint weights are 0/11,0p,but small sample) + Raising Sands (no real negatives for him, stats wise!)
Of Interest… I have just looked at the race ‘normally’ and the one striking element is the complete lack of pace, on paper at least… Mjjack... well he looks like he might get his own way up front, or in any case be able to travel comfortably right up there.. a repeat of his last two runs must put him there and Clifford Lee is decent. Just on pace I may have to throw £5 at him! (well, I will be) 🙂
SUMMARY… Well after some further thought and for interest, my two main fancies are Mjjack and Raising Sand.. I have had a smaller nibble on Johnny Barnes who hits my stats in the Members’ post, whose trainer is in red hot form, and a repeat of his run two starts back should put him in the mix. He ran well enough the last day having blown the start and over 6f. At 14s, I found it hard to fully dismiss him even though he falls down on the odd race stat. I have talked myself out of the others above but we know what happens now! At least there are no 33/1+ shots lurking there so there won’t be too much use of the Opus Dei equipment if one sluices home!
That’s the lot for today, we have the Munster National tomorrow… i’l have a look at some stats/trends but that Arkwrist rocks up… 6/1 may be fair.. he will need to jump better but that Kerry National is already working out well. IF he is over that last race and if can avoid taking too many fences home with him, he may make that look a big price. I know at 6s it is highly likely i’ll pay to find out!
UPDATE: ah a decent race at Ascot.. I nearly did have that Opus Dei equipment out as the Omeara horse flashed home at 20s… a decent second and third at big prices from that ‘shortlist’ of 5. A few races without finding the winner but that was always going to happen given that run we had. But, that was exciting…thought Raising Sands may stay there for a moment. Not to be. Most of those will reappear in the Balmoral Handicap no doubt in a few weeks, who knows what order they will finish in. I did get the pace wrong- they went harder than I thought and Mjjack couldn’t lead. Still ran well, chinned for 5th.