Members Daily Post: 06/10/17 (complete)

TIP + NOTES, Section 1 for now… + other stuff…

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc


1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers



2.00 –

Scottish Glen (all hncps) G1 33/1 UP

Espirit De Corps (all hncps) 14,30 G3 10/1 UP

4.55 – Master Singer (all hncps) 14,30 I3 G3 6/1 UP




3.20 –

Coeur Tantre (all hncps) ES H3 I3 8/1 3rd 7/2 (10p R4) 

Bright Tomorrow (hncp hurdle) 7/1 UP

Lake Chapala (micro dist + runs) 14,30 ES H3 G3 12/1 UP

3.55 – Workbench (hncp chase) 14,30 H3 6/1 UP

4.30 – Jack Snipe (hncp chase) I3 G3 13/2 UP (11.5 BFSP, hit strat #1) 

5.05 – Doing Fine (all hncps + hncp hurdle + micro TJC) ES H1 I1 5/1 UP




Mrs Grass (micro TJC) I3 14/1 WON 14/1>12/1 (22/1 last night I hear??!..anyone get that…?) 

Rivabodiva (micro going) 7/1 3rd 

4.45 – Forest Des Aigles (hncp chase + micro going) H1 G1 15/8 WON 80/40 

5.20 – Bescott Springs (micro class+ going) ES 12/1 UP 22/1 





H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated 1st Oct)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated 1st Oct)

Test Zone:  | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>> C Appleby/York Ebor: Read HERE>>> |NTD Sept/Oct: Read HERE>>>

Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>   Welcome VIDEO: Watch HERE>>> (long!) ‘Brief’ Welcome Intro: Watch HERE>>>

Main Stats Guides (used for section 1 quals) : Summer Stats: Read HERE>>> | Jumps (all non summer only tracks): (new report to follow soon)

Contact: email:  –  … or failing that… 



2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 7/74,27p, -5.1) (Jumps: 9/64, +23.5) (total: 17/138, +18.6)  ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (17/74, +82.5)


3.20 Font- Coeur Tantre- 1 point win – 8/1 (gen) 3rd 7/2

Ah, no complaints there, smashed the marked even with 10p R4, given a lovely ride and every chance to win if good enough- he wasn’t today. Maybe 2m around Uttoxeter next, that hill could have just taxed him maybe, but no issues. That’s racing. 

Those of you who use HorseRaceBase may want to fire it up and throw the following in… when looking at this horse the first thing that jumps out at you is the ‘P’ – ‘Ps are never good’, and many a betting shop punter will look at that in the newspaper and go no thanks- well, that’s just the kind of opportunity us value seekers love – those horses going against common perception of what should happen. ‘the horse is out of form/went wrong/etc’ – and as such the price ‘can’ be bigger than it should.

Well, having just dived in HRB- it is fair to say that us punters should NEVER be put off by a Honeyball horse that PU last time out. Quite the opposite. In his training career to date ALL runners that PU LTO and were sent off 22/1 or shorter SP in ‘today’s’ race…  12/52,22p, +88 BFSP – note the following, (22/1< sp)…

  • Down 2.5f or more from LTO: 6/16,6p, +74 (tick!)
  • Drop in class from LTO: 7/17,11p, +96 BFSP (tick!)
  • 31-300 days since last run: 11/32,17p, +66 BFSP (tick!)



So, those stats are worth staring at, absorbing, and using moving forwards I think. It may be how Honeyball trains them, esp when hitting form- more on that in a moment- and/or he instructs his jockeys to go very easy on them when it is obvious they have no chance in hell…

Coeur Tantre… I am looking for reasons for that PU LTO.. it looked a flat effort. This is the horse’s 4th start for Honeyball, and I think it was quite a trainer upgrade. (i remember when I had a leg in one with Matt B at Geegeez, who sponsors the yard and has a couple there.. he got a ‘Man of Leisure’ I think- i didn’t have his leg sadly!-  who in his words looked as fat as a pig when running for previous trainer- but was still running well-  he bought him in the summer of 2013 and got him proper fit, the brilliant trainer that he is. He won first time up for the yard in June 2013, and would go on to win a further 4 times from his next 5 starts… that’s the difference a good trainer can make).. anyway, this horse..

I still think there could be improvement to come and he was in great form before LTO. He does drop back in class and trip here, but that looked a flat run. The reason? well Honeyball may have gone to the well one too many times in a short space of time- he does like running them quick when they hit form it seems. This one returned after a break and won in August, he ran 4 days later and won again.. he ran 11 days later in his race LTO and PU. I wonder if he was just knackered/the tank was empty. He has now had 34 days off, drops back in grade and distance. Coleman keeps the ride (a sign in itself maybe) and there is a chance he could make all- which may be where he is happiest.

We all know that having written all of that he will be adding to the losing side of the PU stats above!! I am a win only punter in the main but everything suggests he will go close here and probably place at worse for me. Unless there is actually a real problem with him (now a bleeder/undetected, say- may have scoped him after last run) he should bounce back- the fact he returns after 34 days suggests nothing untoward and this is a lot weaker than the last day for sure.

All in all, i have had a good go at 8/1, on the nose. He may bump into something with more in hand, but i’m not sure what. He may actually be out of form/have issues, but the price allows the play. He is an ES so I suspect many of you have had a go anyway, but he is definitely worth backing at 8s.

That’s him.



Lake Chapala – UP well I will back him in the same race- I don’t have as much on as the one above- simply because Gordon has rejuvenated him and the yard is in cracking form… 3/10,5p last 14 days. Now, I suspect he may not be good enough for C3.. BUT.. he has never run in C3 so I don’t know- and he is therefore running with a very light weight on his back. He needs more than his last run but is another who may have benefited from a break and he may appreciate the bigger field/possible stronger gallop here. 12s was fair. I don’t really fancy the other qualifier in the race- at the prices! – i’d prefer double figures- does anyone improve a horse from Jessie Harrington??!! – in any case this is only his 7th hurdle start of his life so who knows. He may get something to cover my stakes on the other two! Cue utter disaster, but it will be an exciting race to watch at least. God bless a C3 handicap hurdle at Fontwell mid week as opposed to some C5 crap at Brighton! Hurrah 🙂

Espirit De Corps- UP I have backed him here- and rare for me – I have had an EW go, as well as a bit on the win side- I only ever really look at EW when 4 places,and in truth I should have just stuck it on the nose at 10s, but this horse does love placing. He is lightly enough raced and Charlton is in red hot form. He isn’t doing too much different- no distance or class move – but young Shoemark rides him for the first time and he may well ride him at home- either way some horses do seem to respond for him (20/1 winner for Amy Murphy yesterday- I messaged my White Diamond guys to ask where the ‘inside info’ was- our two horses are with Amy- and alas no one was on- unexpected! these things happen- ‘inside info’ is generally rubbish,imo – i have spent enough time in Newmarket pubs to know that) He wears the CP for a second time and is at least in form. He also has CD form which can count for plenty here. I think I was on him that day also, having qualified against the same stats. And actually, that was his last run in an all age handicap, whereas he has been in 3YO only races since. So, there are a few things to go on there. They do like holding the bugger up- I do wish they would try racing him more handily/changing tactics – maybe they will today. 10s was fair.

Master Singer -UP hmmm.. 6/1, 13/2 if you can get it, is OK.. I don’t want to over-think him too much. He is very lightly raced, drops in class, steps up in trip by 2f, yard in decent form. So, he ticks all those boxes I bang on about. He also runs for the first time on an easy surface- now, that may be a good thing. He may hate it. But at least it is… drum roll… ‘doing something different’! And a reason for why he may do more. My instinct says this is a desperate roll of the dice and he won’t be doing much. But at 6/1 I can just about,and only just, get away with a play. He could be anything still, and maybe all these conditions will unlock the potential.

That’s the lot for ‘Notes’ horses that will count towards my running total above… that total does include the Johnston 2nd from yesterday’s video- only fair i put him down as a loser.



I will mention… Scottish Glenn.. surely he isn’t winning this.. but he has that G1 next to his name and is 3/8,5p in C4, 7f handicaps. The yard is out of form, he is 11, has had 74 days off, and the last of those wins in ‘ideal’ conditions was in 2015. And he gets no help from the handicapper! He will get something ‘on the machine’ but i don’t think one to go mad on. He may prove me wrong of course and what a great start to the weekend that would be.

I will also mention good old Bescott Springs, who must have won me/other on here, a good 30+ points he has hit these exact stats at this track and won 3x since last November.. good old boy. So, he has some support. I suspect his  legs may have gone now but there is a chance he needed the run LTO. And if on a going day could keep rolling when most of these have given up.


Right, that will do. As always, do not take the lack of a horse being mentioned above as a negative. These are my positive subjective views on what most grabbed my attention at the prices/profiles etc.


‘TIPPING’…  If I conveniently call the ‘bet of the day’ + ‘notes’  ‘tipping content’ and view section 2 as ‘tipping content’ – then they have just sailed through the +100 point mark. That’s more for my own self esteem- as I bang on about using section 1 as starting points + your own subjective judgement (to compliment any strategies or in general) it is important I can do that myself! My ‘notes’ brain is clearly different from my ‘bet of the day’ brain- it is all psychological, and clearly something needs switching around. Over-thinking when to make a horse ‘bet of the day’ maybe. I’ll keep chipping away. I will hit an almighty losing run in section 2 soon, esp the Notes- a mad 4/5 weeks – but I can afford it when it comes at least. 



3.Micro System Test Zone



4.Any general messages/updates etc

I like good news… +90 points in 2 months…

Alan tweeted me (incidentally you can follow me on twitter HERE>>> tweet/direct message,another way to get in touch, as some of you do…if you could nudge me towards 3000 followers that would be great- only a handful of those appear to be sex bots, always a bonus! :)) … back to Alan.. who joined just over two months ago… his eyes mainly fixed on Jumps (inc summer jumps) strategy #2 (horse priced 10/1-25/1 on morning prices I enter next to jumps qualifiers… there are three of those up there today)… after DD winning yesterday he is now 10/61, +90 points 

I do like reading good news. That’s what it is all about. Now.. I should add… that is at a 16% win strike rate… historically those stats have been 10% win SR… that means they are over-performing. That means that at some point they WILL correct themselves, and will highlight a wheelbarrow full of losers. They may hit a losing run of 40 from today. Alan won’t mind, as that will be +50 points from 100 bets,and a few winners will follow. BUT, for those reasons that is why you start small. You may be unlucky enough to start betting just as the losing run hits- you have to see it out and have confidence long term, if backing systematically.


Another winner for Jumps ‘treble rated‘ yesterday – those are now on  6/10,6p, +14 or so points. We shall keep an eye on those! No such qualifiers today.


‘DD’ yesterday’s jumps winner… well as hoped he received a peach of a ride- I would go as far to say that most jockeys would have lost on him yesterday. Hughes just about kept enough in the tank. Another one for that trusted approach that works… he was lightly raced over fences- and he was running at that trip for the first time. It was impossibly to say that he wouldn’t stay. I had my doubts, but 10/1 allowed the play. He hist Strat #1, #2 + the notes.. so we had him covered on nearly all angles- I hope you had a nibble. Nick mentioned a good point- in some of his hurdles runs at 20f, it may have been the class (class 3) more than the trip, that did for him, on a couple of runs. Always things to ponder in this game!

I will mention Mille Nautique.. who could be one for the notebook… I thought he would get an easy lead here, he didn’t. He got in a pace dual with 1/2 others for most of the way. I think they were also racing into a headwind for a lot of this race, and not many/any front runners stayed there. But, he did keep battling and battling, those efforts taking their toll after the last. I will keep an eye on him NTO, he may be overpriced at 9/2 or something- and if clearly he ‘should’ get an easy lead, on a track that suits front runners, may be worth some support.

Witness In Court showed more life for a time also, and front ran for the first time in an age- his mark has dropped quite a bit. Handy. He is 10 but this was his first run of the season… will he be making all at Bangor or Sedgefield soon…. ???


That’s the lot for today, hopefully you enjoy the read,

GL with any bets,





Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

35 responses

    1. Hmm yea,well she out ran her odds and only lost to the one unexposed one in line up, 3/1, 300+ days off seemed short enough but did that well. Classic Prescott. Run a stayer over 6f,get a mark..break to develop,massively up in trip,job done. But market long cottoned onto the ones that are that obvious. No return for us on the nose backers but couple mins of entertainment!
      That’s my all weather fix out the way for the winter!

  1. Morning Josh,

    Looks like Mr Taylor fancies Scottish Glen. Would be some way to come out of a slump.


    1. Morning Nick, he can still move markets, halves in price just like that… i’d be shocked if he won in truth, but have backed him just in case! I mean even at the top of his game, you are expecting a lot of 3-5 year olds to fluff their lines. Maybe he is getting desperate. Albeit his speed method, and Dr Peter May’s, have aligned.

      1. I had £5 ew on top of the standard 6/1 top rated stake. You’re probably right but considering he has ran OK in class 3s this year and ran well in class 2s last year he must have a small chance and couldn’t resist at 33s with 5 places. I can’t see there being as much of a regression from 10 to 11 and they must be keeping him in training for something so I would expect this would have been the plan. Hopefully one last successful swan song as his career comes to an end.

      2. I could not fancy Scottish Glenn off top weight with Donald Trump’s money. It looks a competitive race. If he wins I will eat my Sombrero (full size).

  2. Hi , I’m just wondering what any of you guys that follow the jumps strategies do when a certain horse qualifies for more than one strategy, would you then double up on your stakes or just leave it with the one stake on that particular horse? , LC for example today qualified for two of the strategies. Cheers.

    1. I currently bet £10 for the No 1 strat, £7.5 for ES qualifiers and £7.5 for triple raters. If A horse qualifies on more than one I knock of £2.5 off each stake so in the case of LC I have £12.50 on and have split it so for stats purposes £7.5 will be allocated for the 10/1 Inform/GGG raters and £5 for the ES. Obviously the more cash I make the higher the stake will go up and at some point I will cap it so I don’t have an amount on which is considerably higher than the rest. So far I haven’t done that with Josh has also tipped it and they qualified on some of the micro systems but I think I will going forward.

    2. Hi Matt,
      Yep no right or wrong approach to that, it is very much what you are comfortable with (esp when it gets to staking amount/totals) .. clearly in results all strategy quals counted multiple times if so…personally…

      I don’t multiply my stakes in accordance with strategies etc… I use them as a confidence scale I suppose, to compliment my own thinking…

      1. if they hit a strategy I will tend to have £5 on minimum – however many strategies they hit, inc all ‘notes’ horses.
      2. I then tend to go on a scale where £10 would be my usual amount/starting point (that used to be £2.50s/5s, when starting out) and i work myself down to 5 or up to £15 sometimes, if feeling bullish. Sometimes 20.
      3. all of that is in context that 10-20 is my comfort zone for how much I like to have on a horse. It is an amount whereby I no longer think about the money/how much I may lose on a horse/race etc- which is vital for when analysing/wanting to enjoy the game. all in context of where my own bank is. And you have to be able to cope with some bad losing runs, which in these price ranges/win % will happen.. albeit with the portfolio of strategies + subjective thinking, they will hopefully never be too bad- but within each strategy they will be for time to time.

      So, it is up to you, and finding a level that you are comfortable with. I could have maybe won a lot more if I backed each strategy separately for X,.and really built up. But I am in a comfort zone and happy with my own progress/approach. Albeit always things to work on. But I do like adding my own thoughts to all the horses and trying to ‘make a case’ -as I get more satisfaction from that, on top of the base ‘systematic’ £5 bets.

      It may be that you start with £2.50 bets per strategy and back multiple times, until bank grows and you then hit stakes you are happy with/comfortable with/can sustain losing runs.

      That probably isn’t useful, the key is just to be patient and find an approach that suits you.

      1. I think that staking depends upon what you want from your punting? And of course how much you wish to risk? If it is a bit of fun then the advice above is good. If you are more serious then it is a different ball game. When you have a day where all your best lose and the horses seem to have had their back legs tied together in their races, how much are you OK with losing on that day? If it puts you in a bad mood and you start throwing tea cups at the dog then you are betting too much for you. I have to manage those sort of days as gambling is my main source of income and I look at annual profit as a target. Plus you run out of tea cups.

        1. Running out of tea cups, or coffee cups in my case, is never a good thing Martin!

          I would say… in terms of analysis/approach, the aim is to have a professional mindset… and be as serious as I/we can be… ‘a different ball game’ may then be about the amount you are betting- I still think whatever your aim, if you are new to an approach you must start small and build up – even if you wanted to get to point of betting ‘professionally’ – you have to trust the approach you adopt, and that can only come with time. And hence why I never like the idea of diving in. I have been there once before, luckily got that out the way early, but losing a couple k on horses when you can’t really afford to isn’t pleasant! No coffee cups. 🙂


          1. Yes agree, give yourself at least three years of positive results before you get serious with stakes, Also need a bankroll for cash flow purposes. Otherwise stay with affordable stakes.

      1. Not a shock haha- can believe all the times, clocks etc- – top geegeez, clearly showed up well on HTs time methods… worth change at that price, but not falling off my seat here! Suspect he has gone plenty hard enough up front, but in any case had plenty stacked against him on paper. The odd one of those falls in every now and then!

  3. That was an unexpected bonus and another one for the Inform jumpers (you’re probably sick of me saying that Josh)

    1. Ha, well luckily I was on as #2… quite hard to make a form case.. but actually, having started some more.. you could make a case simply due to not making a case for any of the others!! Almost winner by default, well placed there- in a field of unfit/unproven stayers/unproven mud lovers..
      (I will get round to checking those next week!)

      1. With regards to your question on the price I only managed to get 14s just after 6PM which would have been within 10 minutes of you putting the post up but I think it was bigger before than.

        1. Yea, GP may have tipped him on twitter I think, I declare/record at morning prices anyway, so sounds like bigger wasn’t available from when I posted.

          1. Hi Josh. Yes I got 22s but it was from Gary Priestley who generally posts a bit earlier. 2 winners from him today so far with Shady McCoy also which hopefully marks the start of an upswing after a miserable September in his own words). Got to keep the faith

  4. That was a great ride from young Dowson on Mrs Grass after nearly going over the horses head after a bad blunder,he then took the horse straight to the front and got on with it,a great 14/1 shot,well done Josh.Cheers BoB

  5. nice winner that mrs grass , she was on her nose nearly falling in about 4th then in a matter of strides was in front where she stayed . having a great week on here , long may it continue .

    1. ‘if carlsberg did 1st weeks for newbies’ haha- it won’t always be like this- but these are the odds to play at for long term enjoyment/profit, no doubt about that. Sometimes best trusting the stats – hard to make much of a case for her- you could in context that the rest had a load of questions…

      Yep, jock has won that for us, got his balance while horse was falling- kicked feet out maybe/or lost irons.. you knew when she carted to front after that error she was going strongly! Got exciting turning in as fav had stamina questions/pulled for first half of race- you don’t need ‘proven’ stamina, if nothing else is fit/stays the trip! She got away with it. Lovely patient ride, kept plenty in tank, even when leading. Got talent that young lad.

  6. yes josh no good myself at cherry picking out selections so i decided to just go with the strategies outlined . started at the right time it seems so i will enjoy it while it lasts in the knowledge that the strike rate will come down no end but already over 30 points up this week so nicely in front with money to play with .

    1. Yep, just keep consistent/patient and will be fine. If the trainer’s keep their habits, and the approach to the ratings sets remains the same (no reason why they should be changing), there is no reason why it shouldn’t all tick along over time- with any luck when one strategy has a dip, another has a spike and vice versa. Will be a bit choppy if they all coincide but that’s racing. Enjoying it is the main thing, +30 points in a week isn’t bad 🙂


        1. Hi Steve, I will do some work on that next week.. video/bank advice/win % to losing runs..
          but Jumps…
          strat #1, 16% or so, #2 10% or so, #3 16% or so.. it looks that way with the latter. If I can keep a 20-24% SR up with my notes that would be good- i probably won’t though,that may settle around the same.. with no odds caps you are rarely going to do better than that- but if they remain that way the betting banks are only heading in one direction.
          Many do struggle in the short term with adapting to such an approach, esp if ever been a top end of market player. But that isn’t how I do things, and it is what it is.
          With win % in that range you will hit losing runs of 10-20 regularly, and 30-50 every 1000 bets or so, on average. They will happen. They have in the past. Doesn’t take many 10/1+ winners to erode a losing run and put you back in profit though.
          But that is why starting small and being patient is vital- sorry I know I sound like a broken record on that. That is the reason for the 4 months, 21 day trial just not long enough to see if the method/content will work for you/suit you, long term.


  7. The stats really firing,anyone who spent the £7 and joined will think this is how it always is,at least have bookies money to play with now,for the darker days ahead

  8. 22/1 for Mrs grass. Who was the lucky punter I got 12/1 at 2am. For some reason she was also in my tracker but no idea why. I’ve only a started using a tracker since using RTP. So I ended up 14/1 richer, wiser and confused. still getting bog with skybet not sure for how much longer though.

    1. Suspected I mentioned her after her last run here when she went well for a long way in heavy, C4.. the note probably said ‘wait until she drops into C5 and makes all’ haha. Either way, happy days. Trusted the stats with that one, not sure I would have picked her out/backed her otherwise- well, no chance in hell I would have.

      1. Absolutely right a few months ago wouldnt of give 10 seconds of my time let alone put money on her. I think the guy who did the pre race comment on racing post did exactly that.
        RTC has changed every aspect of how I view and judge a race.

  9. My bot backed the first winner yesterday at 20.0 on BF seconds before the official start time. Goodonya Josh

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