Members Daily Post: 04/10/17 (complete)

Section 1 + notes

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Notingham

4.00 –

Miningrocks (all hncps) 16/1 UP

Lord Franklin (3yo+) 22/1 UP

5.05 –

Maid In India (3yo+) H3 3/1 UP

Casterbridge (3yo+) 28/1 UP

Fantasy Keeper (micro TJC) I3 20/1 2nd 14/1 

5.35 –

Appleberry (micro TJC) I3 14/1 UP 

Lydias Place (micro dist) ES 14/1 UP 

Ambitious Icarus (micro dist) ES I1 8/1 

 

Salisbury

None.

 

JUMPS

Bangor

None.

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated 1st Oct)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated 1st Oct)

Test Zone:  | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>> C Appleby/York Ebor: Read HERE>>> |NTD Sept/Oct: Read HERE>>>

Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>   Welcome VIDEO: Watch HERE>>> (long!) ‘Brief’ Welcome Intro: Watch HERE>>>

Main Stats Guides (used for section 1 quals) : Summer Stats: Read HERE>>> | Jumps (all non summer only tracks): (new report to follow soon)

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 7/74,27p, -5.1) (Jumps: 9/64, +23.5) (total: 17/138, +18.6)

No test ‘tip’.. but the odd note… (all my own subjective views to use, abuse, ignore as you see fit…)

My own punting day, from that list above anyway, (some free post system quals I need to have a look at, price allowing.. the Lee/George chase angles are solid…) will be focused on the 5.35. Of the two Elite Squad qualifiers my own preference is for Ambitious Icarus- i think the old rogue is worth some support. He is in form, running well, and with sprinters that can be enough just to pop up. All conditions are fine. At this trip these days he does need them to go a blistering pace- which I think looks likely. That may be why his stablemate is in here- she will go off like a scolded cat as usual- my own head says she isn’t in good enough form to stay there, but we shall see. She could bounce back, albeit I am not sure why.

I have had a nibble on Appleberry at 14/1… he clearly isn’t at the unexposed end of the scale but he isn’t long in the tooth either. His last win came 6 starts ago in October last year. That was over course and distance, in soft, a C4, with Mullen on, from OR 76. His next start was in similar conditions where he didn’t do much, but after that he was running over 6f/7f. All the evidence to date would suggest that 5f is as far as he wants to go. So, he drops back in trip here, back in class, Mullen returns for the first time since that win. The hood is also removed after a few starts. That win was when wearing it first time. That may be a positive or a negative but it is doing something different. Which in this price range, in this type of race/profile of horse, can be more a positive than a negative. So, there is enough there… the big question is clearly fitness. Appleby can get them fit if he wants to. In fact at Nottingham with flat handicappers, 60+ days off… 5/28,6p, +27 all handicappers… 3/12 in the class… ALL 5f turf handicaps (all tracks) 6/22,7p, +34. The horse has run ok after such breaks without winning. And the yard could be in hotter form. But at that price i will take a chance. The market may guide but if you could guarantee he was fit enough, 14s would be too big. I’ll throw one of my crisp £5 notes at him, on the nose, to find out.

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Re-Cap

Hmmm… yesterday was a bit ‘meh’ in the end, small losses on various systematic approaches. Most days can be like that in truth… you bob up and down, up and down, and then bang. A profit spike/decent run. That’s the nature of no odds caps, decent odds etc. I thought one of the shorter priced ones at Ayr may go in but alas, they didn’t. My test ‘tip’ is still running. Awful.

But, I will just focus on the two jumps positives, again to hammer this into my own head as much as anything else…

The profile of the Smith winner, and the Bailey second… has done and will win plenty of points in the months ahead… as a starting point for focusing on a shorter list of horses it is never a bad one.. here you had two young, unexposed, will be more to come horses… they were both doing something different –

-Bailey’s was making handicap debut (probably been running to get a mark) and moves up in distance- that was the indication for an improved performance. He was fit and had been running well. He ran a decent race, no match for the winner, but that’s how it goes. Always hope with that type of horse. He ran as if wanting further already, but may need time to grow/develop.

-Smith’s charge.. well he was making his second start in a handicap hurdle, gaining experience with every run. In the race before at the track he took it up a few from home, but just ran out of gas late on. He was fit, in form, more to come. They dropped him down in trip here – doing something different- the reason for why he could improve on the run LTO- for connections who like to be aggressive on their runners. This was game over pretty early on.

Both of those were 6s/5s/9/2 .. (if you backed in evening you should have got 6s on Smith’s) and well punted. There will be many like that available at 8/1-16/1. And it is just the kind of profile to home in on. They are the type where I would always focus first in section 1, before moving onto any ‘been there and done it’ horses that you are hoping may repeat an old performance.

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That’s the lot for today. GL with any bets.

Josh

3.Micro System Test Zone

None.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

RESULTS: Advised strategy links have been updated in the Key.

Our Kylie won for Jumps ‘treble rated’ – Since the Geegeez speed figures returned at back end of August, Treble Rated over Jumps (inc summer jumps) are now 5/9,5p, +10.75.

Clearly a very small sample but a decent start. Treble Rated looked like the highest win SR on the flat of the advised strategies,and it will be interesting how this one develops. Something to note, as I know some of you already have.

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

17 Responses

  1. Hi Josh. I’m back. Thanks for the welcome back offer. I see the strategies have changed a bit since I was last here and the results look good. One thing you always do is to show wins and places then the pts + or – Can you clarify, are the points based on win only or do they include the places as well. Cheers Ken

    1. Hi Ken, welcome back… yep the ‘ES’ were new over the summer.. the other two main jumps strategies have been a constant since Xmas time. Inform Speed ratings are a new addition to add another dimension. Hope it all makes sense! And of course always trying to think of best ways to make most profit from the starter set of stats quals, which continue to find decent priced winners – just have to fine enough and keep the losers down as best we can.

      Yep, unless otherwise stated you can always assume points profit for any approach/strategy/round up is to 1 point win bets, level stakes.

      Any ‘place’ stats for anything, unless stated, include the wins as well… so, that ‘treble rated’ update in Section 4 above… 5/9, 5 places… those places include the wins… so actually, the 5 places are the 5 wins. If that were 5/9,6 places… those 6 places would include the 5 wins plus one further place.

      Josh

  2. Wednesday 4.00 Nottingham

    Della Valle – 4YO Filly
    German bred = Stamina
    Best speed GS
    Carrying 7.11 brings her into the picture
    Draw OK – 7
    Jockey Aaron Jones, claiming 3lbs, is an experienced AW pilot used to going round corners.
    Note three rides Nottingham.
    66/1 365

    2nd Choice
    Harmonise 16/1

  3. Wednesday 5.05 Nottingham

    Specialv
    V1, likes this ground and could well bounce back.
    David Allen aboard for first time.
    25/1 SKY 5 places

    Seaview
    V1, likes this ground and this is second run after a four month break.
    Aaron Jones is the regular jockey.
    Weight concession and draw an advantage.
    25/1 SKY 5 places

    1. GL Edmund, you do like a big priced poke. We view this game a bit differently.. my pins certainly wouldn’t have been anywhere near most of those- which for you is probably a good thing! 🙂

  4. Sorry Josh im a complete newbie. Have had a quick search for Tom George angles in the search bar…didn’t find them, is there a better way of finding them?

    1. Hi Jack… never apologise…

      firstly when logged into Members, click ‘Home’ in top left hand corner so you can see every post on blog, inc free etc.

      If you mean the actual research- can be found in Free Reports/Systems Tab… that may be worth a flick through generally, plenty of stuff in there… or jump to it below…

      http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2017/02/07/free-jumps-systems-updatere-cap/

      Link to research here…(link is within the post above) http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/FREE-CORE-SYSTEMS.-2017-UPDATE.pdf

      Needs updated post 6th Feb/2017, which at some point i’ll get round to doing.

      Josh

  5. Thanks Josh! Agree about the Bailey horse, will get a mark, but does need to mature and develop to me. At one stage looked to be struggling then ran on again. Never matching the winner, but worth watching as you say

    1. Yep, can’t think his mark will move after this- given 107 after his 3 novice hurdles, would be unlucky if it went up after this. He did seem to get out-paced around the final bend- maybe inexperience as bowen had him in the perfect spot all the way round- don’t mind being beat by a make all winner- if you track them in second/third- just not good enough on day- he did stay on again- probably just moderate but Bailey will get wins out of him at the usual venues no doubt. Could be a 3 miler in time, but only 5 and that was only 4th career start. He did have the pace to hold position around here- maybe a stiffer finish/stronger pace-pace collapse- may do the trick. Leicester maybe.

    1. George horse is too short for me, saw 9/4 and didn’t go any further! 🙂 Thought Sage monkey was ok at 5/1.. not sure if run the last day came too quick..but wasn’t his running..considering he got act together over CD race before- it is a weak race- he repeats the run two starts back then 5s is fair, if he repeats his last run it is too short!! I had a nibble. Mr B i have left for now…7s ok.. but he is 12, 200+ days off (Lee can ready they but he sometimes needs it,but has won after long time off before) – of more concern is his record Left Handed.. (fontwell is fig of 8 so ignore that,go both ways) 0/14,1p all runs left handed, 0/5,0p all chases/handicap chases… that was my main concern.. if 10s+ I may have thrown 5- i could have him wrong but at 7s I was bit on fence so have left him. Time will tell if I have got that right. But given his age, days since run, LH record- I could live with it at 7s.

      1. That doesn’t mean to say the George horse isn’t value at 9/4!! Having just bolted up. 🙂 Not an end of the market where my judgement stands the test of time generally. Lee’s first runner ran like a drain, so LTO clearly not a blip.

  6. Hi Josh. I’m one of your £7 newbies having received your free emails for some time. Yesterday I used my last £6 in my Sky account for a 20p L15 on four you highlighted. Two were placed. Ever So Much 12/1>33/1 and Ink Master 16/1>28/1 . £6 became £15.38. A nice surprise! Shows the value of BOG. Thoroughly enjoying my first week. Thank You!

    Pat O’Connell (last of the big gamblers)

    1. Hi Pat.. this blog is the home of big gamblers, you’ll fit right in!! 🙂 That is what it’s all about- great fun for small beer… and £15 is a few pints, well, 2 in London town, about 5 for me up here in Liverpool!
      The content is there to approach anyway you see fit.. I like the fact your eyes have focused on some biggies- if you have that approach to odds then you’ll do just fine… took me a while to stop looking at 4/1< shots- so hard to make money that end/enjoy the game. Slow and steady as they say, and with any luck you are still enjoying it in a few months time. Cheers Josh

  7. Satchville flyer 3.35 Salisbury
    Another one I think we have been here before with.
    Not done much but back down to around that mark again. Might be a look.

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