No stats/system quals etc. No tips. The 3m+ chase at NA is a small field and i’ll hold fire until the proper stuff gets going.
Well, as Nick said… ‘if Carlsberg did first days of tipping services’… a nice 10/1 winner to kick things off will do nicely. I think around
30 36 of you have now taken up the trial and with any luck that is a sign of things to come, but that is the point in the 3 month trial… it doesn’t appear that I have put the mockers on them anyway! Take a look below…
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Let’s see if we can keep the run going… below I have repeated today’s Members’ email from SP2A… fingers crossed…
Over to them…
Newbury 5.05 4 Balmoral Castle UP @ 25/1 (WH/B365/PP) / 5 Grapevine UP @ 11/1 (generally) – 1/2 point e/w each horse
Shuker Racing –
Newcastle 5.45 3 On Fire @ 7/1 2nd 10/1 (ah so close,took a while to stoke up off slow pace,rattled home) / 11 Stoneham UP each way @ 25/1 (B365/PP/Sky) – (1/2 point e/w Stoneham)
There is one thing that is more frustrating than tipping horses that lose, and that’s tipping horses that don’t run, so the abandonment of Ayr yesterday was a huge disappointment. The track looks in excellent condition, the problem is flooding at the 2 furlong point where a drain has blocked. The meeting is again abandoned today and they will be hoping to race tomorrow, although as a punting chance tomorrow, personally I’d be very circumspect with no earlier days form/going/draw angles really to go on. They do have a NH Course but I’m sure they have considered using that and discounted it, as at places like Newbury/Doncaster even Haydock as it was; there may have been a work around.
The loss of Ayr left us with one runner yesterday and it was a major consolation after Ayr to see LA FRILLITAIRE get up and hold on by a narrow margin. The advised 12/1 was a decent price (affected by 2 non runners) but the SP of 17/2 a nice and welcome boost after a quiet week following a trio of big priced winners just over a week ago.
The loss of Ayr today has left us with 2 unappealing Irish meetings, Newbury on the Flat, Newton Abbot over the sticks and an AW Card this evening at Newcastle, and we will look at 2 selected races; one at Newbury and one at Newcastle and just touch on a few other thoughts and ditties at the end.
Here is the logic from the Tipster for their tips-:
PLACESPOTTER – A competitive handicap over 10 Furlongs with a number of unexposed 3 year olds; any of whom may improve for the step up in trip. I always look for Course form though at Newbury, it is an unforgiving pear shaped track with a top turn a bit like a mini straight and then a long and flat home straight. It suits proven stayers and unless there is something very well handicapped and progressive amongst the younger horses, three old-timers stand out off their marks here. BALMORAL CASTLE and GRAPEVINE are the picks and the one I left off the shortlist is Fire Tree.
BALMORAL CASTLE has CD form, enjoys the trip and looks to have a fair chance of out-running very generous odds dropped in Class here. It could be the horse is now “over the top” but he has had only about 5 runs all season and Trainer Jonathon Portman is astute at placing fresh horses late in the campaign, and has had a few nice placed horses in recent weeks; the indications are that this could be its best chance all season. GRAPEVINE is something of a “bridle horse” who travels well but finds little; he has to be produced at the right time but also has good form and credentials and could get a very nice tow in to the final furlong by some of the younger horses who then fade. I left out Fire Tree who is not as well in with BC from a race in July and I always think Fire Tree is better at a mile than this extended trip. Speculative tips but both are confidently expected to out run teir odds.
MICHAEL SHUKER – the extended 2 miles here on the Tapeta and some unexposed progressive types but the booking of Josephine Gordon on the Bethell horse ON FIRE is eye catching and the horse is one of the few here with proven form on the Tapeta surface and over this trip. The price of 7/1 available early gives you win or each way options and we will leave that to your discretion. If we like the CD proven form of that one, then we have to have a small e/w dabble on STONEHAM; the 25/1 with B365/Sky/PP looks generous as does the widely available 20/1 elsewhere and if you ignore a possibly needed, last run, then the horse’s form here looks very interesting and we all know the Trainers capabilities with long distance Flat stayers.
That is all tips wise, we would have been very keen on INIESTA in the 4.10 at Newton Abbot but don’t think the 4/1 is great value; CHAUVELIN in the 6.15 at Newcastle has been in our Tracker for a while but just niggling concerns over its ability on Tapeta hold us back and in the closing race at Newcastle, we like the high draw options but found it impossible to split Hadley/Groundworker and Canford Bay, no massive value either but may be a fun small stake reverse tricast for a bit of shrapnel to close the night.(None of these are proofed tips just observations).
We will be back with Daily Tips tomorrow around 9am, also plan an Elite Service selection and analysis, although the direction and number of tips tomorrow will depend very much on what happens at Ayr.
Good Luck today.
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That’s the lot today. I believe Ayr have a 12pm inspection so I will hold fire on any stats/trends research for the three big handicap sprints. UPDATE: Ayr is off, what a shame. A waterlogged strip of ground 12m by 3m on the home straight to blame.