No stats/system quals etc. No tips. The 3m+ chase at NA is a small field and i’ll hold fire until the proper stuff gets going.
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Well, as Nick said… ‘if Carlsberg did first days of tipping services’… a nice 10/1 winner to kick things off will do nicely. I think around 30 36 of you have now taken up the trial and with any luck that is a sign of things to come, but that is the point in the 3 month trial… it doesn’t appear that I have put the mockers on them anyway! Take a look below…
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Let’s see if we can keep the run going… below I have repeated today’s Members’ email from SP2A… fingers crossed…
Over to them…
Good Morning
Placespotter –
Newbury 5.05 4 Balmoral Castle UP @ 25/1 (WH/B365/PP) / 5 Grapevine UP @ 11/1 (generally) – 1/2 point e/w each horse
Shuker Racing –
Newcastle 5.45 3 On Fire @ 7/1 2nd 10/1 (ah so close,took a while to stoke up off slow pace,rattled home) / 11 Stoneham UP each way @ 25/1 (B365/PP/Sky) – (1/2 point e/w Stoneham)
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There is one thing that is more frustrating than tipping horses that lose, and that’s tipping horses that don’t run, so the abandonment of Ayr yesterday was a huge disappointment. The track looks in excellent condition, the problem is flooding at the 2 furlong point where a drain has blocked. The meeting is again abandoned today and they will be hoping to race tomorrow, although as a punting chance tomorrow, personally I’d be very circumspect with no earlier days form/going/draw angles really to go on. They do have a NH Course but I’m sure they have considered using that and discounted it, as at places like Newbury/Doncaster even Haydock as it was; there may have been a work around.
The loss of Ayr left us with one runner yesterday and it was a major consolation after Ayr to see LA FRILLITAIRE get up and hold on by a narrow margin. The advised 12/1 was a decent price (affected by 2 non runners) but the SP of 17/2 a nice and welcome boost after a quiet week following a trio of big priced winners just over a week ago.
The loss of Ayr today has left us with 2 unappealing Irish meetings, Newbury on the Flat, Newton Abbot over the sticks and an AW Card this evening at Newcastle, and we will look at 2 selected races; one at Newbury and one at Newcastle and just touch on a few other thoughts and ditties at the end.
Here is the logic from the Tipster for their tips-:
PLACESPOTTER – A competitive handicap over 10 Furlongs with a number of unexposed 3 year olds; any of whom may improve for the step up in trip. I always look for Course form though at Newbury, it is an unforgiving pear shaped track with a top turn a bit like a mini straight and then a long and flat home straight. It suits proven stayers and unless there is something very well handicapped and progressive amongst the younger horses, three old-timers stand out off their marks here. BALMORAL CASTLE and GRAPEVINE are the picks and the one I left off the shortlist is Fire Tree.
BALMORAL CASTLE has CD form, enjoys the trip and looks to have a fair chance of out-running very generous odds dropped in Class here. It could be the horse is now “over the top” but he has had only about 5 runs all season and Trainer Jonathon Portman is astute at placing fresh horses late in the campaign, and has had a few nice placed horses in recent weeks; the indications are that this could be its best chance all season. GRAPEVINE is something of a “bridle horse” who travels well but finds little; he has to be produced at the right time but also has good form and credentials and could get a very nice tow in to the final furlong by some of the younger horses who then fade. I left out Fire Tree who is not as well in with BC from a race in July and I always think Fire Tree is better at a mile than this extended trip. Speculative tips but both are confidently expected to out run teir odds.
MICHAEL SHUKER – the extended 2 miles here on the Tapeta and some unexposed progressive types but the booking of Josephine Gordon on the Bethell horse ON FIRE is eye catching and the horse is one of the few here with proven form on the Tapeta surface and over this trip. The price of 7/1 available early gives you win or each way options and we will leave that to your discretion. If we like the CD proven form of that one, then we have to have a small e/w dabble on STONEHAM; the 25/1 with B365/Sky/PP looks generous as does the widely available 20/1 elsewhere and if you ignore a possibly needed, last run, then the horse’s form here looks very interesting and we all know the Trainers capabilities with long distance Flat stayers.
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That is all tips wise, we would have been very keen on INIESTA in the 4.10 at Newton Abbot but don’t think the 4/1 is great value; CHAUVELIN in the 6.15 at Newcastle has been in our Tracker for a while but just niggling concerns over its ability on Tapeta hold us back and in the closing race at Newcastle, we like the high draw options but found it impossible to split Hadley/Groundworker and Canford Bay, no massive value either but may be a fun small stake reverse tricast for a bit of shrapnel to close the night.(None of these are proofed tips just observations).
We will be back with Daily Tips tomorrow around 9am, also plan an Elite Service selection and analysis, although the direction and number of tips tomorrow will depend very much on what happens at Ayr.
Good Luck today.
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That’s the lot today. I believe Ayr have a 12pm inspection so I will hold fire on any stats/trends research for the three big handicap sprints. UPDATE: Ayr is off, what a shame. A waterlogged strip of ground 12m by 3m on the home straight to blame.
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18 Responses
GOLF…Tour Champ
Well after round 1 we have Colins tips at T2 and T11 Casey and Rose now 9s and 18s.
Top 10 after R1 and leaving out No1 World and FEC and Major winners you are left with
Casey, Rahm, Stanley, Simpson, Henley and Woodland prices now range from 9s to 40s. The fly in the ointment is Spieth you can’t ignore this guy best price 9/2.
My opinion he will be the guy who beats Nicklaus record of 18 Majors.
Good Luck if you are playing.
Mike
I don’t do golf! I’m guessing T2 and T11 are their current standings right?
Chris
You are correct, Tied 2nd and Tied 11th.
Mike
I got 6.3 on Matchbook on Spieth and he sits nicely behind the leaders after round one. Long way to go yet.
Hi Mike
I agree about Spieth and winning the most Majors provided he stays fit and does not start changing clubs and putters and his stance for this seems to happen a fair bit when a player gets to the top,why do they do this?for they then seem to go backwards,a couple that spring to mind Kaymer and Mcllroy the latter when he changed clubs to Nike.
Having never played golf wished i had but never had time always riding horses and football and now the body will not let me.
Hi Colin
I tend to agree with you when guys get to the top they change swings and clubs. You can add Harrington to your list. The reason from what I’ve heard it seems they think the swing that got them there won’t hold up something to do with niggling injuries,age etc. I’ve played golf for over 50 years and I can a test to niggling injuries and now age. I have changed my swing a few times over the years to overcome the injuries. Constantly hitting balls in practice and playing take there toll. I still play 2 or 3 times a week in between betting on the horses and supporting josh and this site.
A few golf bets on the better tournaments.
Mike
Here are the 12 month stats taken from Racing Index this morning ( hope they align properly when posted!)
Service Bets SR% SP Profit BSP Profit POT% VBP
SP2A – 2015 Elite Service 455 17.6 -93.14 -24.38 -5.4 -219
SP2A – The Advisor 341 29.9 -6.01 43.84 12.9 431
SP2A – Work Watcher 305 26.6 -27.09 0.05 0 -33
SP2A The Gravy Train 955 25.1 -129.95 90.49 9.5 460
total -256.19 110 17 639
Can’t see the other service mentioned Shuker, but overall not bad. There are 6 other services under the same umbrella, 4 have performed poorly and 2 have done ok. I don’t know what all the figures would be after subs taken off though. I guess when using a service a small overall profit is ok as the service does all the work for you, I don’t really know as I don’t use them, I guess some see these services as get rich quick schemes which I doubt really ever happens.
Align they did not
Chris
Shuker Racing can be found in the “been proofing less than 12 months” section which is below the main list of those that have been proofing for the full 12 month period.
The point of proofing is to be 100% transparent, winners; losers; warts and all but important to point out that by having 6 tipster options and only tipping a max of 3 tips/races per day we can cover for “loss of form” / holidays and breaks etc.
It is a long term game for sure and long term sustainable profit is what we are after and seek.
Regards
Ian
Hey Ian I’m not having a dig, it was just that 3 months profits were posted yesterday so I wanted to see a year and thought they were ok overall so I posted them up. So from all the figures shown not all of them were backed, just 3 a day?
Chris
sorry if that came over as if I was “having a dig” absolutely wasn’t – was just explaining where Shuker Racing could be found as it is a relatively new addition. The way Racing Index works is they do 12 ; 6; 3; 1 month tables and if you are not tipping for the “full period” they put a sub-section underneath headed something like “these tipsters have proofed for less than xxx months”.
With reference to how we work, we will perm what we think are the best options each day – usually a maximum of 3 races, very occasionally a 4th on a Saturday (and if we have had a few days in week prior with 1-2 on any day); so we are looking at ball park 20-21 races per 7 day period maximum.
We do on occasions (like today) give a few added suggestions and we have a couple of Tipster not currently on the Daily Tips panel (Michael Gifford/Barry Nicholls) who are working on some systems and accumulator work and we proof them to RI to give us some accurate context although we make it clear that these are “proofing only” and not currently available to public or part of Daily Tips.
Regards
ian
Thanks Ian
I also like the look of Grapevine(also helps I am free rolling most of my stake given I got the 18:45 race right after yesterday SP2A winner). As well as the being placed twice in both the handicaps he has ran at the track, he drops into a class 4 for the first time this year. He was 2nd in a class 3 here off 4lbs higher earlier this year. The first time booking of Jim Crowley shows intent and I expect him to go close.
Earlier in the card I wanted to be on Golden Stunner in the 16:00. Looks to be the only front runner at a track which favours them at this trip. Was made favourite when chasing home Roger Varian’s Realtra in a Group 3 (who followed up that win in another Group 3 off a penalty) and I don’t think she handled the ground LTO and Ascot wouldn’t have played to her strengths but this is easier. Beckett was hoping she would be able to pick up some BlackType at the start of the season and hopefully she can deliver. Sky pay 4 places which is excellent in a 12 runner race.
The Nick Williams and Lizzie Kelly combo in handicap hurdles micro delivered a 16/1 winner at Newton Abbot. I only had a tenner each way but if you are patient with this micro it does find a few decent priced winners for a profit according to my figures.
hi Martin,
Any other rules? just fired up HRB and those two in handicap hurdles were 8/63,27p, -5 SP before today, 0/11 in 2017 before today… 3/25 last year…
Novice hurdles on the other hand… 8/32,13p, +38.
Josh
Think Martin’s been on the sauce! last time they had a runner at NA was 22/8/17, last time they had a winner was in the Betway Bowl chase at Aintree
egg on face….haha…..think I’ve been on the sauce…reminder to self – check todays results before opening big mouth!!
I did not add > 10/1 re micro. I have had it going over a year and so the records are my own and ive not checked it on HRB or Geegeez etc and so I could have missed the odd day over that period and not that many runners. The figures are skewed by a big price winner but a profit is a profit.