Nothing from me today, horses wise… a quiet lull really before the Jumps gets going properly.
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A taster… below I have repeated today’s members’ email from Speculate 2 Accumulate. Ayr is now abandoned, but there is one of interest at Pontefract, and you get a feel for the write ups etc, and whether you may enjoy reading this kind of thing on a daily basis…
Over to them..
Ayr 2.10 1 Finn Class @ 12/1 / 2 Strong Steps @ 16/1 (1/2 point each way each – Lads/SkyBet odds to 4th)
Work Watcher –
Ayr 3.45 5 Ingleby Hollow – 1 point each way @ 14/1 (all Bookies odds to 4th place Skybet to 5th)
The Advisor –
Pontefract 4.30 9 La Frillitaire – 1 point each way @ 12/1 > WON 10/1 (11.5 BFSP) (R4)
One of those frustrating days yesterday, the sole tip was in the 4.00 at Beverley when we narrowed it down to 3 horses being One Boy; Jacobs Pillow and Astrophysics, Work Watcher just felt the latter was best handicapped and that the other pair were a bit exposed off marks over 70, unfortunately as you will know, the logic was spot on but the execution lacking as the tip was never in contention but the two dangers romped home 1st at 16/1 and 3rd at 20/1. You will know my overall view though is that such days are sent to try us, but if we can apply that logic often enough, we will consistently make good profit, and I’d be far more concerned if the 3 listed horses filled the last 3 positions. I know a few of you played the 3, as some do, so well done but for record keeping and proofing, the selection lost.
We move on today with the first of 3 days on soft Going at Ayr, a decent Card at Pontefract; AW at Chelmsford; and also racing at Yarmouth and in Ireland. Our race profiling narrowed the selections down to a shortlist of about 5 races being the 2.10; 2.40 and 3.45 at Ayr and the 2.50 and 4.30 at Pontefract; and we will directly attack 3 of those; all very competitive but with the kind of bookie value we seek to optimise the potential for profit.
The nature of the races and the stage of the season suggests conservative staking today with the advised stakes from your notional betting bank of 100 points and with your unit to match what is affordable for you.
Before we look at the logic of the Tipsters tips, a few pointers in general. It always pays to look at any runners from the Goldie and Dalgleish yards at Ayr, especially when Goldie seems out of form, which he is at the moment; Andrew Balding is in cracking form at the moment and sends one to Ayr today (Brief Visit in the 4.20); another trainer in good form is Nigel Tinkler and he runs a couple in the 5.35 at Pontefract (Cliff and Cesar The Geezer) and The Mayor of Newmarket John Ryan, a firm favourite of ours, is another in form and runs Hope Is High in the 3.35 at Yarmouth – not tips not proofed but nice types to keep your eyes on and ideal for any Placepots you may be doing today.
On to the Tips and the logic for those tips-:
PLACESPOTTER – A mile at Ayr on soft Going takes some getting and I am therefore looking for proven form in the Going; Course form, a nice handicap mark and if there is any some form over a bit farther in terms of the Distance. FINN CLASS has run some great races for me over the years but is now firmly in the “owes me” category. I will give it one last chance for the season here, it is well handicapped despite top weight, may just have needed the recent run after a bit of a break and really ticks every box required, STRONG STEPS as a Goldie horse also jumps off the page somewhat and looking back at recent form they seem to have lined this one up for this meeting for a while, the type to run well carrying weight and has often been mentioned as being ideally suited to a mile with some cut in the ground. At 12/1 and 16/1 they are speculative but should give s a good run for our stakes and are preferred over the shortlisted dangers who were Magic City; Gerry the Glover and Courier. Lads and Sky go odds to 4th on this race
WORK WATCHER – A very competitive race over an extended 13 furlongs and I was keen on Hurricane Hollow; Johnny Delta and King of Scotland who can all run big races, however, I kept coming back to INGLEBY HOLLOW who is very well handicapped on some not too distant form, runs off a very nice mark and with all bookies offering odds to 4th place the 14/1 looks very generous and a Yard too that definitely knows how to place a horse!
THE ADVISOR – I love these Long Distance races at Ponty and it can be a case of waiting for one to get the ideal conditions as they can meet 5-6 times a year and win in turn, The likes of Chebsey Beau; Tyrell; Almost Gemini and Saved By The Bell have their merits and always do in this type of race but today could be the day for LA FRILLITAIRE looks to tick all the boxes for me here in terms of Course and Handicap mark and trip and with the generally available 12/1; looks the value in the race to me.
Those are the selections today and we will proof them accordingly.
That’s all for today, a tough competitive day with some nice handicap races and just the types we like to attack.
Back with more tomorrow at around 8.30am
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