Members Daily Post: 31/08/17 (complete/UPDATED!)

UPDATE! Missed an ES over jumps… Section 1 + Test zone + Notes (important) + Bet of Day

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Muss

Nones.

 

Bath

2.10 – The Salmon Man (all hncps)  ES I1 G3 14/1 UP

3.10 – Coronation Cottage (3yo+ , + micro runs) ES I3 7/1 WON 7/1>6/1 

4.40 – Swanton Blue (4yo+) I3 G3 8/1 UP

 

JUMPS

ES added to 4.30 as of 09.40… 

Sedge

4.30 –

Sediym (hncp hurdle)  ES  H3 I1 G1 6/1 UP 

Locarr Motion (micro class) ES I3 6/1 UP

Irish Hawke (micro runs?* see below) 14,30. G3 7/1 WON 7/1>5/1 

6.00 –

Almost Gemini (all hncps) ES H3 7/2 UP

Danceintothelight (micro runs) 14,30 G1 20/1  WON 20/1>16/1 (18.5 BFSP) 

7.30 – Kisumu (micro class+runs) ES G3 16/1  UP

**

 

KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to 27/08/17) 

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to 13/08/17) 

Test Zone:  | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>> C Appleby/York Ebor: Read HERE>>>

Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>

Main Stats Guides (used for section 1 quals) : Summer Stats: Read HERE>>> | Jumps (all non summer only tracks): Read HERE>>

**

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 6/64,23p, -2.9) (Jumps: 9/62, +25.5) (total: 16/126, +22.6)

3.10 Bath – Coronation Cottage – 1 point win – 7/1

Famous last words but this one looks the most likely to run her race and 7/1 seems a couple of points too big to my eyes. There are some positives and negatives. The positives… well she is still lightly raced, 1/5,2p in handicaps and in theory she could still prove better than this mark. She also handles the track and fast conditions. They may get the odd shower but with any luck it is on the fast side come race time. I am on the fence as to whether the ground has been an excuse the last twice. Given her win was on Firm then the softer conditions could well be an excuse. Having said that two runs ago she was running well here and mounting a challenge on GS, when badly hampered and eased. So, it could be that she is just now out of form. But, at that price, I will take a chance that a return to fast conditions and this track will see her in better light. The trip is a niggle…she looks better over slightly further but lost out by a neck at Salisbury over this trip- and I can’t say for sure yet that this is too sharp. She may be able to track a couple of others that with any luck go too quickly…she should be staying on through the line.

Of the others…

Well the Salmon Man gets a first time visor…and given he is an ES, and a Top/3 rated, will carry some of my money. Hopeful rather than expectant but at that price I will roll the dice- it is all about the headgear. He is 0/16,5p in hi career now and needs it to work. Not one to go mad on but enough there on the stats and you guessed it, he is at least ‘doing something different’!

Over the sticks… well it is moderate fare and feels like one of those strange days.. I wouldn’t be shocked if any of them won really, albeit some clearly have more questions than others…and I also wouldn’t be shocked if they are all still running come this time tomorrow. There are no lightly raced unexposed ones in that line up really but with any luck an ES or two goes in and or a ‘strategy 1’ with the return of the GG speed ratings over jumps.

GL with whatever you play on. Another winner for the Flat Treble rated, and another ES Jumps winner kept things ticking over. Yesterday’s Bet of The Day ran fine, and halved in price- so no real complaints there. He may have done too much on the front end again- they should stick with the blinkers as there is a chance he may settle in them better on his next couple of starts. If he can get an easy lead/able to dictate, he should be dangerous soon enough. One to track.

*

I am about to dive back into my HRB account and look at all things Nigel Twiston-Davies for September/October. He usually pays for a holiday/meals out/box of malbec/trip to the footy/present for the better half etc etc – hopefully he has his string in it’s usual form at this time of year… we will soon find out

*

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jockey CD

3.00 Muss – Our Charlie Brown (any)

4.00 Muss – Alpine Dream (any)

4.35 Muss – Cosmic Sky (any)

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Irish Hawke… as per quals above… I have just emailed team at HRB (which I promised to do a couple weeks back but forgot) as he is another, like the Dalgleish winner for us on the Flat, who quals/doesn’t qual , on the ‘runs this season’ which for McCain is 1-2 at Sedgefield in handicaps. He has had 2 runs over jumps, but also one on the all-weather. So, since the start of the new jumps season he has had 3 runs, but only two over Jumps. I have emailed to confirm how to interpret their data- whether it is total runs since the start of the season, or in said ‘code’ that they are running in.

**

Geegeez Speed Ratings For Jumps..

Have returned! (well, they are there for Sedgefield)

Please refer to the advised strategies link in the Key above. Don’t dive in (start small, build up over time…no rush)  but the approach was those that had a G1 or G3 next to their name and either 10/1 or bigger on prices I enter next to horse in the morning (or at a time that you look if evening before…all evens out over time) OR sent off at 11.00+ BFSP… which covers the drifters…and you can set that minimum BFSP price at a time that suits you, bet only placing if 11.00+ or bigger at the off.

Results…

  • 2017 to End April (Jan/Feb/March/April)
  • 76 bets / 12 wins / 16% sr / +74 early|bog / +99 BFSP / 130% ROI

 

If that profit figure is maintained we will be having some fun this jumps season and we may want to see more quals in live play to boost confidence. But logically it should keep working. A 16% win SR does mean a bumpy ride at times and there WILL BE the odd painful losing run…and that is why I always say start off small (£2 if needs be) and build up over-time.

Of course in general you can use those speed ratings to help with your own analysis. Along with ES they should be the two main systematic strategies. Within a couple of months we may know if there are any other ratings pointers/strategies as with the flat.. such as treble rated. It would be good if they could replicate the flat but we shall see. The Inform Speed ratings only came into being over jumps after Geegeez had taken their summer holiday.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

45 Responses

  1. Evening Josh,

    Nice to see the jumps GG ratings back particularly given how well the triple flat raters have done. Are you planning to keep the Inform rating going through the winter? Might be another arrow in the jumps quiver there.

    Regards
    Nick

    1. Evening Nick ,

      Yep I plan to use them, no reason not to – I have paid for an annual licence so may as well. Like you I hope that the ‘treble rated’ may emerge as a decent approach but we shall see.

      Josh

        1. I do need to find a solution to keep on top of results as I am struggling to a point, esp general and ratings pointers etc…may look into paying someone, or maybe I should give away an annual membership haha.

          1. Real life always gets in the way but I know what you mean, particularly as in theory there is no reason why the winter AW ES/Triples raters can’t reap the same sort of results.

  2. Hi Josh…Yes Canada it was….Beautiful people…couldn’t do enough for us…They still have what we have lost…True friendliness, manners….they actually made the holiday. Was treated royally in their legion…[after then strange initiations…made the screech rum taste better.] They rolled us back on the ship. P****d good style.
    What a hardy breed Newfoundlander’s and Nova Scotia are.
    Should have took the posting years ago. lol.
    But couldn’t get a bet on.

    Tony Mc.

    1. Good to hear Tony. I have never been to Canada but would like to go, and will do one day. Not getting a bet on is no bad thing… I was quite pleased to clear the head a bit when on holiday…as soon as you bet/worry about betting, you then want to keep updated on results etc etc- sometimes it’s good just to switch off. And it did me good ‘tipping’ a 12/1 winner on the day I got back… although it looks like I may now need to go away again for a few days haha 🙂

  3. Really like the look of Green Door in the 4.55 @ Tipperary. Trainer is 1 from 1 at the track and has Smullen booked, and they are 2 from 3 when teaming up. Horse has been running reasonably and has won a G2 in its past. Looks ok on breeding, with a 14% sire s/r and 50% place s/r over course & distance. Trainer is from the U.K and only sending 1 over, so I doubt its going unless they think it can win. 12/1 seemed big to me.

    Also had a smaller bet on Society Dream in the 2.00 @ Musselburgh. The trainer has a 20% win s/r at the track & 25% s/r when teaming up with the Jockey. Sire’s prodg 1 from 1 over c&d. Trainer has a good s/r with his 2yo’s in august at the track. Up in trip and won a class 6 seller last time out, but still low in the weights for this. Looked a touch of value at 6/1.

  4. Simon Dow is usually good for a decent priced one in Wolverhampton handicaps.He runs one in the 7.10 Hurricane Rock at 20/1 with bet365 ,this one has nothing to recommend it on a form basis,just Dow’s 21% +66 at the track in last 5 years,and has been having winners recently.Harry Bentley is probably one of the best flat jockeys around at present and is profitable overall at track too,its a bottom of the barrel race where anything is possible
    The 1.50 at Chelmsford Pendo at 12/1 probably is a bit of value also for a combination that do well at the track

    1. I didnt have a penny (although I can’t be too greedy considering how the day has gone) but cracking tip there.

  5. Hi Josh

    Just wondering with the geegeez speed ratings back for the jumps. Do you back to win or EW, i’m quite new to this site so any advice is appreciated. Cheers

    1. Hi Matt,

      Welcome, and all questions are always well received these parts…

      I personally rarely bet EW at all, certainly very rarely when fewer than 4 places available, and rarely under 16s/20/1.

      Any approach should work win only… and in truth with the Geegeez Strat 1 I haven’t pulled out the place stats – I think I did look at it once when asked and there was not much point, it didn’t win any more and may have even lost…and of course you are either halving stakes or doubling them- and either way that affects returns. Most of these no odds caps strategies, well bar the Treble Rated on flat, have around a 30-35% win/place SR, and given that is any odds, and not just 20s+ say, I don’t think that is high enough to make EW betting worthwhile. And I don’t know the place returns for say 5/1+.

      I am sure some others may have views on that. There is no right or wrong as such and very much personal preference. But in terms of profit and return on investment, I am pretty certain that 1 point win only will do much better… versus 1/2 point ew, or 1 point EW.

      1 point win bets is simple, and what I judge everything on – and is how I bet generally.

      EW betting, esp bigger odds/no odds caps approaches, is usually only valid for psycological reasons – if you struggle with losing runs. Which is fine. Many like a more regular return, even if it is just money back/or smaller losses. That is unless you hit many many 16/1+ placed horses, which I don’t think we hit enough of.

      But for me the solution there is to start small… certainly with that Geegeez Angle or indeed any angle you could start with £2 or £2.50 win bets. They could lose 25 points over next few weeks, before hitting a winner that wipes out all losses in one hit, before hitting another winner and suddenly you are in profit, it’s the best thing since sliced bred

      if you take the Flat Elite Squad… they hit +65 points in 4 weeks or so… it was mad, and I kept banging the ‘there will be a losing run soon’ drum…in the last couple of weeks they have lost 27 points or so… the Jumps ES have won 38 in that same time roughly. But if you had dived in with £10/20 bets at that flat Elite Squad high you’d be staring down the barrel of £500 or so of losses and wondering what the hell is going on.

      It all happens in cycles and I trust in the strategies long term… that’s because the stats are logical/well researched..and when it comes to HRB / Inform/Geegeez… their methods do not change, their approach remains constant – so, in theory, over time, results should keep repeating.

      You just have to have a long term view, and trust in the approach, and be very patient. We have all dived into stuff in the past and lost a heap ,that is part of the educational journey, but it isn’t the way to attack any approach.

      I would back win only, starting small, and when you bank doubles say, you could double your stakes, or do whatever. You just have to be able to cope with the odd -20 to -40 point losing run that WILL come along every now and then.

      Hope that may be of some use. Josh

  6. Thank you for the reply Josh, I will take your comments on board. I’ll have a little look around today and get my bearings then as seen as it’s a new month tomorrow I think I’ll have a dive in on small stakes.

    1. No problem, all good things come to those who wait in this game haha – it is aways tricky with new members etc- you could join just as said strategies burst into life, or just at end of a mad profit period when losers come. Which is why it is always wise to start small. Al about your comfort levels and what you are *happy* to lose. The content finds decent priced winners, value picks and you will do just fine over time.
      Just take your time to read through the welcome email, various links in the Key etc. Once you settle in it will be fine. If you like thinking about the game etc hopefully you like what you find but I never take offence if it isn’t for you. If you have any questions do post away or you can always email me info@racingtoprofit.co.uk

  7. if your struggling to keep hold of results Josh, send up a google document for limited users with permissions and ask them to keep the records up to date for you, small job if done daily, and Im sure a couple of monthly memberships will be a nice reward for them. Some people take the time now to do the ES etc

    1. yep I am pondering.. what with everything else I try and get through in a day I struggle to keep on top of them but in theory I shouldn’t- as should just be a 10-30 min job every day. About getting into a routine. But I’d prefer to just pay someone to keep the spreadsheets updated I think! And when you have been away for a few days it is a mountain…but I’ll get them up to speed next week and go from there.
      Keeping on top of advised strategies to early/bog is easy enough… it’s just the foundation spreadsheets for all results, to ISP/BFSP and then the Ratings Pointers One, which is important periodically for discovering new strategies… i.e. only when I updated/reviewed around end of June was it, or July, that the Treble rated shone through.

  8. I have backed a couple of short priced horses today but also am drawn to First Summer, 4.20 Chelmsford, who may like the track albeit in a big field (9/1) and Hurricane Rock, 7.10 Wol, for Simon Dow, who has a good strike rate at the course (20/1).

    1. cheers, pin landed on the right one! Never in much doubt to my eyes- concern was may be taken off feet but when clear she wasn’t then no worries. Nice for flat ES to get back on the board as much as anything. Always fun when a sprinter wins that easily. On we go.

  9. great winner josh get home from at 2.oo clock to a good winner. Love the write ups and videos it helps me get an angle when i have limited time in the morning .

    1. No problem… yep that is one of main reasons I want to get good at Bet of The Day, and get off the fence and force myself to pick something – I would have hid behind the ES with that one this time last week- but would be some added value if you could all have confidence in BotD moving forward- esp yep if you are in a rush etc. Videos will be back next week- away from the recoding gear etc at the moment!

  10. Well selected Josh,probably the breaks did you good,and the hard graft has been done with the stats shortlists.sometimes overthinking things can be our undoing,the simpler something is the better

  11. So that’s 2/2 for the maybe qualifiers. Was a little deflated after yesterday’s utter tripe I put up so didn’t mention him (plus he was a qualifier anyway) but had a nice bet on Hawke since he looked like a solid e/w bet yesterday. Other one I like is Top of the Bank in the 19:10 at Wolverhampton. (I missed the early prices but got 10s but 6/1 just about OK)

  12. not a great price but almost gemini looks solid here recent flat form good switch back to hurdles should do the trick

  13. Must of still been asleep this morning as some how I miss your BOTD 🙁 anyway we’ll done Josh and all who back it 🙂

  14. Hi Josh

    So new stategy is to just back all the jumps qualifiers you didn’t put in the free post. Certainly a nice welcome back day for the GGG ratings!

    1. Haha – well, that’s how it goes.. yep nice winner there for the returning #1 jumps strategy – shame I didn’t put them all up, never mind. In fairness all those form my list/readers who want to try members club have- that route is exhausted.

      1. You’re right. Just fond the irony amusing. Cracking day all round here. BTW did the Inform ratings jumps qualifiers really have bad summer? If they have need to figure out how I fluked myself into 30 pts of profit since May backing anything 10/1+.

        1. Oh they had a bad start…but that is another spreadsheet that needs updating…but only now will the data be worth anything I think. Fluking 30 points is always useful 🙂 What was that, any I1 or I3, or both, 10/1+ ? Like with Geegeez start?

          1. Yeah. I actually think at the start it may have included the H1 and H3 which were 10/1+ so they could even be better than that. (or worse but from my recollection it was more the Inform than HRB ones which provided winners)

  15. Hey Josh

    Nice run from your bet of the day and I followed that up by backing Danceintothelight to kick off a great start from the Geegeez ratings

    1. Hey – well, that sounds like a solid day at the office to me! 🙂 Well done. Not every day is like that sadly but it doesn’t need to be at those odds!

  16. Not a bad first day to start following!
    (I couldn’t resist) , haha puts me in front for a while on my modest stakes.

    Thanks Josh.

    1. Ha pleased to read that.. I did hope you may have done… and not waited until the new month started! Slow and steady wins the race, you don’t need many winners at those odds to do just fine over time. Hopefully that bank keeps ticking over and growing over time, and at some point in the future you can up stakes. Many are £2.50-£5 punters, and you can have a lot of fun/win a decent chunk at those levels when no odds caps/eyes fixed on decent priced horses. Fun and Profit is the aim. On we go.

  17. very good day overall and Danceintothelight was a 4pt bet for me to put the icing on the cake 🙂 if every day could be like this one this time next year we would all be millionaires .

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